Since it seems quite fashionable these days 'bashing' US dollars with everyone calling on a "collapse of the dollar", I might just as well play the part of devil and offer a contrarian view on the dollar.
If you want to hear some economic indicator or analysis backing the U.S. dollar from me, sorry to disappoint you but I myself could not find anything positive lying ahead for the once mighty greenback. In fact, i can offer you endless list of econ analysis pointing to the exact opposite, like the Fed stopped publisng M3 money supply in 2006 (hiding real inflation which could be going to the moon), twin deficit that eventually will blow up, an economy that I would call America.com which is based more on hype than solid economic powers and productivity like that of Europe, Japan and China.
But with all that said, it is precisely for the above listed reasons and arguments that is making the buck so ridiculously cheap at the moment. And, chances are, the world we live in five years down the road could be very different from the one we live in today. Who knows what economic outlook would be like then? Maybe five years later, we will indeed be able to come up with another list of economic analysis that proves the invinscibility of the dollar! you never know.
Historically, contrarian investors who went against popular opinion have faired quite well for reasons I have yet to discover. Usually when major magazine covers start picture something (like oil and gold) is going to the moon means that reversal is probably within 10% of the range.
Therefore, stupidity might be our best friend right now. I am willing to actually BUY the U.S. dollar precisely for the fact that selling it is getting extremely popular. I can not come up with any convincing economic analysis in support of the US dollar (in fact, rational analysis will show it is heading towards zero), but who need them?
Just an idea for entertainment from a contrarian thinker.
If you want to hear some economic indicator or analysis backing the U.S. dollar from me, sorry to disappoint you but I myself could not find anything positive lying ahead for the once mighty greenback. In fact, i can offer you endless list of econ analysis pointing to the exact opposite, like the Fed stopped publisng M3 money supply in 2006 (hiding real inflation which could be going to the moon), twin deficit that eventually will blow up, an economy that I would call America.com which is based more on hype than solid economic powers and productivity like that of Europe, Japan and China.
But with all that said, it is precisely for the above listed reasons and arguments that is making the buck so ridiculously cheap at the moment. And, chances are, the world we live in five years down the road could be very different from the one we live in today. Who knows what economic outlook would be like then? Maybe five years later, we will indeed be able to come up with another list of economic analysis that proves the invinscibility of the dollar! you never know.
Historically, contrarian investors who went against popular opinion have faired quite well for reasons I have yet to discover. Usually when major magazine covers start picture something (like oil and gold) is going to the moon means that reversal is probably within 10% of the range.
Therefore, stupidity might be our best friend right now. I am willing to actually BUY the U.S. dollar precisely for the fact that selling it is getting extremely popular. I can not come up with any convincing economic analysis in support of the US dollar (in fact, rational analysis will show it is heading towards zero), but who need them?
Just an idea for entertainment from a contrarian thinker.
