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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,961
  • Nov 5, 2007 3:40pm Nov 5, 2007 3:40pm
Here are a few charts, if you'll take the time to examine them, you should be able to understand exactly what is taking place right now. I'm open to questions, but will only answer a question that is interesting/intelligent.
I had practically screamed on the other thread Aus's for people to start paying attention to certain odd things happenng in the market now, nobody seemed to listen or care, I've posted the same charts and didn't get one comment or question. That could mean either that everyone understood(highly unlikely) or that no one wants to take the time to actually analyse. Now I'm not saying that what I had posted will happen exactly the way I envision, but there are quite a few pieces of the puzzle that point to the fact that the charts are accurate and exact. So far, it is behaving in a very predictable manner. I'm posting these here for 2 reasons, 1: to see if anyone will be able to find a flaw,(perhaps I missed some things). And 2nd to hopefully shed some light for some inquring minds.
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  • #13,962
  • Nov 5, 2007 4:38pm Nov 5, 2007 4:38pm
gene22

time, frame symmetry stuff from elliotte wave theory?
  • #13,963
  • Nov 5, 2007 4:54pm Nov 5, 2007 4:54pm
That, Gann, patterns, geometry, etc... Unless you have some knowledge of patterns at least, my unswers will prove futile
  • #13,964
  • Nov 5, 2007 5:25pm Nov 5, 2007 5:25pm
beautiful h&s. almost too good to be true. what time frame is this?
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #13,965
  • Nov 5, 2007 5:54pm Nov 5, 2007 5:54pm
Quoting moneymagnet
beautiful h&s. almost too good to be true. what time frame is this?
looks like weekly?
TRIALS THAT SHAKE SOME, CONFIRM OTHERS!
  • #13,966
  • Nov 5, 2007 6:05pm Nov 5, 2007 6:05pm
Daily
  • #13,967
  • Nov 5, 2007 6:07pm Nov 5, 2007 6:07pm
Quoting gene22
Here are a few charts, if you'll take the time to examine them, you should be able to understand exactly what is taking place right now. I'm open to questions, but will only answer a question that is interesting/intelligent.
I had practically screamed on the other thread Aus's for people to start paying attention to certain odd things happenng in the market now, nobody seemed to listen or care, I've posted the same charts and didn't get one comment or question. That could mean either that everyone understood(highly unlikely) or that no one wants to take the time to actually analyse. Now I'm not saying that what I had posted will happen exactly the way I envision, but there are quite a few pieces of the puzzle that point to the fact that the charts are accurate and exact. So far, it is behaving in a very predictable manner. I'm posting these here for 2 reasons, 1: to see if anyone will be able to find a flaw,(perhaps I missed some things). And 2nd to hopefully shed some light for some inquring minds.
I looked at your charts but didn't comment because I trade based upon fundamentals. And if you have read any of my posts, you know that I am expecting a major event in both the currency and equity markets before the end of november.
  • #13,968
  • Nov 5, 2007 6:17pm Nov 5, 2007 6:17pm
Agreed, exact same stance here, read your posts, dead on accurate, it is a simple fundamental question of what came first, an egg or a chicken.
  • #13,969
  • Nov 5, 2007 6:54pm Nov 5, 2007 6:54pm
gene22,

Do you believe that 11/18 is the "drop zone" as far as time goes? I'm sure that you have a range of days...maybe +or- 5 days? That is one pretty chart and I agree with everything on it, except for the "possible target". I think that we will fall to only around 227.50-228.50. A 10% or so Dow correction would only get us to around 12300-12500, then bargin hunters will step in a start a push up for a new high. I think that attempt will fail and there will be another pull back in Q1 before finally new highs in late Q2 early Q3
  • #13,970
  • Nov 5, 2007 7:36pm Nov 5, 2007 7:36pm
Quoting FX-Petra
gene22,

Do you believe that 11/18 is the "drop zone" as far as time goes? I'm sure that you have a range of days...maybe +or- 5 days? That is one pretty chart and I agree with everything on it, except for the "possible target". I think that we will fall to only around 227.50-228.50. A 10% or so Dow correction would only get us to around 12300-12500, then bargin hunters will step in a start a push up for a new high. I think that attempt will fail and there will be another pull back in Q1 before finally new highs in late Q2 early Q3

The bargain hunters won't have any cash, plus confidence in these markets will be in the basement. The era of credit expansion is over. Not sure whether it'll be worse than 1929 a la Markam but something is going to have to give.

Without the fundamental aspects that are becoming more and more evident, I might have dismissed Gene's charts as pretty patterns or symmetrical coincidence without basis in the real world. But, like the confluence of two rivers, now the fundamental and technical evidence is mounting, heading to the waterfall of recession, possibly even economic collapse.
  • #13,971
  • Nov 5, 2007 7:52pm Nov 5, 2007 7:52pm
The dow will drop to 11900, there is a double bearish divergence to price on the histogram, followed by a consolidation pattern, the structure in the geppy at the moment speaks volumes, I will post from time to time as important dates and price points come up. I'm not here to argue or validate my views, the charts that I've posted are quite clear and precise, the drop should start on the 16th, but I will have to do some more calculations to that efect this week. INMO we will see 232.50 or just slightly lower this week followed by a rapid rise, not to exceed 240-241, that top will be the last one before the drop to the 220 area, there are a couple of things that could happen at that point but it is likely to see an acceleration to the 215-213 area, after which we will see rise for some time to come, the current top of 251 would be exceeded, but that's in the future, let's see what this month will bring.
  • #13,972
  • Nov 5, 2007 8:05pm Nov 5, 2007 8:05pm
birdt,
Well now, if we are talking economic collapse, then we are talking about the end of the carry trade as we know it. If that is in the cards, then we shouldn't be thinking about Markam's 210...we should be thinking about the 140's--the support area from year 2000. Now we are talking Dow 5000 (maybe less..the calculations boggle my mind!) There is A LOT the US could do to stop and reverse a slide like that...1)release the statigic oil reserves,and ramp up domestic production 2)drop 1/2 of our gold reserves on the open market...these 2 actions alone would slap down commodity prices and send the USD off in a much more positive direction.
I agree that we are presently on a course for collapse, but I do not believe that we have reached the point of no return. There is one cure for the US..government and individuals...save more, spend less. I hope we have what it takes to swallow that pill!
  • #13,973
  • Nov 5, 2007 10:27pm Nov 5, 2007 10:27pm
Quoting gene22
Here are a few charts, ...

Now I'm not saying that what I had posted will happen exactly the way I envision, but there are quite a few pieces of the puzzle that point to the fact that the charts are accurate and exact. So far, it is behaving in a very predictable manner.
Gene,
Thank you for your charts and analysis. I would like to comment on your first chart were your possible target is 222.58. If you believe (as I do) that history repeats it's the 40+ vs 30+ bar count makes a lot of sence.

However, I would like to point out that, if it reaches the 222.58 area it would be the third time hitting this support and I would agree with Monarh's chart posted on Sunday http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13934 where he shows a 50% fibo target of 202.58.

If you look closely it would also coinside with an approximate H&S target. Mind you 222.58 vs 202.58 is only 200 pips diference and on the big scale makes the target close enough either way...

Thanks again for your analysis
  • #13,974
  • Nov 5, 2007 10:33pm Nov 5, 2007 10:33pm
Quoting Mr. G.
Gene,
Thank you for your charts and analysis. I would like to comment on your first chart were your possible target is 222.58. If you believe (as I do) that history repeats it's the 40+ vs 30+ bar count makes a lot of sence.

However, I would like to point out that, if it reaches the 222.58 area it would be the third time hitting this support and I would agree with Monarh's chart posted on Sunday http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13934 where he shows a 50% fibo target of 202.58.

If you look closely it would also coinside with an approximate H&S target. Mind you 222.58 vs 202.58 is only 200 pips diference and on the big scale makes the target close enough either way...

Thanks again for your analysis
It's 2,000 pips and not 200
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #13,975
  • Nov 5, 2007 11:49pm Nov 5, 2007 11:49pm
Quoting FX-Petra
gene22,

Do you believe that 11/18 is the "drop zone" as far as time goes? I'm sure that you have a range of days...maybe +or- 5 days? That is one pretty chart and I agree with everything on it, except for the "possible target". I think that we will fall to only around 227.50-228.50. A 10% or so Dow correction would only get us to around 12300-12500, then bargin hunters will step in a start a push up for a new high. I think that attempt will fail and there will be another pull back in Q1 before finally new highs in late Q2 early Q3

I think the fall is already start now. just not there yet
  • #13,976
  • Nov 6, 2007 12:53am Nov 6, 2007 12:53am
Gene,
Your date lines up with one I have looking at a major move. I have 15th/18th. 18th being Sunday night open, which could turn into Monday morning. This will be a powerful play in my opinion.

get some good pips all.
  • #13,977
  • Nov 6, 2007 2:27am Nov 6, 2007 2:27am
Quoting gene22
Here are a few charts, if you'll take the time to examine them, you should be able to understand exactly what is taking place right now. I'm open to questions, but will only answer a question that is interesting/intelligent.
I had practically screamed on the other thread Aus's for people to start paying attention to certain odd things happenng in the market now, nobody seemed to listen or care, I've posted the same charts and didn't get one comment or question. That could mean either that everyone understood(highly unlikely) or that no one wants to take the time to actually analyse. Now I'm not saying that what I had posted will happen exactly the way I envision, but there are quite a few pieces of the puzzle that point to the fact that the charts are accurate and exact. So far, it is behaving in a very predictable manner. I'm posting these here for 2 reasons, 1: to see if anyone will be able to find a flaw,(perhaps I missed some things). And 2nd to hopefully shed some light for some inquring minds.
LOL Gene - this inquiring mind did find your post in Aus's thread yesterday afternoon and did even try to use his MT4 Gann Grid tool to try to duplicate your chart - so far without success, although that might have more to do with his need to recover from a weekend spent attempting to keep his client - just returned from Moscow - from consuming the entire stock of Rioja on the island! IŽll try again today.

PS IMO this is a better thread for your excellent analysis

PSS My rather simplistic attempt at locating Time Lines has November 18 as a "here something should happen" day for GJ.....IŽll do some more work.

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,978
  • Nov 6, 2007 3:11am Nov 6, 2007 3:11am
LOL, was it Dmitry that you had for a client? Russians can drink, can't they? BTW, all my lines are hand drawn, I didn't post purelly Gann grid, this on has more relevance in my point of view.
  • #13,979
  • Nov 6, 2007 3:15am Nov 6, 2007 3:15am
Quoting Mr. G.
Gene,
Thank you for your charts and analysis. I would like to comment on your first chart were your possible target is 222.58. If you believe (as I do) that history repeats it's the 40+ vs 30+ bar count makes a lot of sence.

However, I would like to point out that, if it reaches the 222.58 area it would be the third time hitting this support and I would agree with Monarh's chart posted on Sunday http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=13934 where he shows a 50% fibo target of 202.58.

If you look closely it would also coinside with an approximate H&S target. Mind you 222.58 vs 202.58 is only 200 pips diference and on the big scale makes the target close enough either way...

Thanks again for your analysis
This all speculation, let's see what happens, and how far can this babby go, although in all fairness I do not see it dropping to 202, not yet anyway. We will get there sure, but before that time we shall revisit the highs I think. I expect a lot of volatility, a lot....., wild swings in both directions.
  • #13,980
  • Nov 6, 2007 3:54am Nov 6, 2007 3:54am
Good Morning,

A couple of follow up charts just to show how well a major trend line can be excellent support even in the face news events. I hope plenty of people took advantage of it.

Good support for an additional long this morning around 238.75 on a test of the declining T/L.

My view on direction ....could go either way but looking at this mornings price action a move down looks likely although if it does it may find support around the weekly, daily pivot and Daily channel centre line (dashed yellow line) for a move further up.

Price has now hit the underside of a channel I have on the hourly chart so this could turn out to be strong resistance for a move down.

As usual time will tell.

At the moment I'm still long.
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