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Fibonacci obscuring reality

  • #41
  • Dec 21, 2006 8:12pm Dec 21, 2006 8:12pm
Quoting philmcgrew
Dismissing fibs in favor of pivots is like dropping Santa Claus to believe in the Eater Bunny.
More like dismissing Santa to believe that its really your parents bringing all of those toys.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #42
  • Dec 25, 2006 11:29pm Dec 25, 2006 11:29pm
Quoting mosad2
it's not about fibonacci or pivots at all!
it's about the way people understand fibonacci levels.
most traders think of fibonacci levels as exact levels that price must or have to follow
while in fact fibonacci levels are mathmatical points that forms a range or zone where high probability set-ups should exit.
in order to benefit from them , or to IDENTIFY the most high probable fibonacci level , three things must coincide: price , time and pattern.
if ur ste up lacks one factor of the above , then it's low probability set-up
professionals use fibonacci levels to start looking for one of three things
pause in trend ( Accumilation or Distribution) , Continuation of trend or reversal of trend.
the Golden Ratio exists everywhere around us
it's just the way we see things and interpret them.
All Fibonacci lines wiil not hold as Support or Resistance !
Nothing is that perfect !

What gives you the edge
wiyth Fiboncci Support levels and Resistance Levels
is you undersdtanding this very point

Trading them in isolation you will only be right
about 50% of the time ,,, thats all

It's to bad that the people who write the books
don't say this up front to you .....
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FIBONACCI IS NOT THE HOLY GRAIL _

It is position Sizing and Money Mangement that is the Grail!
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Fibonacci lines become more significant when
combined with candle - stick formations ......
reversal bars like harami's and doji's are very important !
and are at thier best when there is mulitiple touches
on the fibonacci lines that you are observing ....
  • #43
  • Dec 25, 2006 11:32pm Dec 25, 2006 11:32pm
Here is the Euro

at 618 % Rertracement ............. since this past friday

will price break above 3210 again , next week
after going down sharply like this ?

----------------------------------------------------
Attached Image
  • #44
  • Dec 25, 2006 11:51pm Dec 25, 2006 11:51pm
Candle Stick formations at work ..........
Attached Image
  • #45
  • Dec 26, 2006 12:09am Dec 26, 2006 12:09am
Quoting Leugimp
More like dismissing Santa to believe that its really your parents bringing all of those toys.
The 4 Stages of Life based on the Santa Claus Scale

Stage 1. You believe in Santa Claus
Stage 2. You dont believe in Santa Claus
Stage 3. You are Santa Claus
Stage 4. You look like Santa Claus


Chronologically in Stage 4. Socially in Stage 3. Psychologically in Stage 1.

Lou
  • #46
  • Dec 26, 2006 2:48am Dec 26, 2006 2:48am
Quoting marketwavez
It is position Sizing and Money Mangement that is the Grail!
very true
  • #47
  • Dec 26, 2006 2:56pm Dec 26, 2006 2:56pm
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FIBONACCI IS NOT THE HOLY GRAIL _

It is position Sizing and Money Mangement that is the Grail!
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Fibonacci lines become more significant when
combined with candle - stick formations ......
reversal bars like harami's and doji's are very important !
and are at thier best when there is mulitiple touches
on the fibonacci lines that you are observing .... [/quote]


Fibonacci + daily support and resistance + timing + candle stick formation + strategy (counter-trader or breakout trader) = Holy Grail

indicator only come into play after one is in +25pips profits and trade is protected.

If you miss the timing you may have to wait till end of that session on jump into the bandwagon using indicators
  • #48
  • Dec 26, 2006 3:10pm Dec 26, 2006 3:10pm
Quoting syd360
very true
I agree theoretically in what you say but I think that this simplifies the truth a bit, although that is exactly what most people search for is simplicity. However, money management will not earn you that much desired filth. While MM will keep you going, chugging along, and while it makes mathematical sense, ultimately I feel that a deep understanding of your trade and all of the little complexities involved is what will truly give you your big chance. I look at forex like a career in acting. Sure you can make a living at it being careful with a good system and MM, but if you are looking for filth what you really need to do is spot those great inefficiencies and big opportunities - ones which become so obvious to you and nobody but you, and you need to bet the house. Good MM will definitely keep you going while you wait for those opportunities, but putting your balls on the line when those big opportunities arise is what will make your filth. Essentially, what I am saying is that I believe we need good MM only because we are overtrading, as well as trading in a purely technical short time frame. We aren't speculating in its truest form, as we belive price contains all relevant information, we are truly just looking to follow suit. In a purely speculative manner, we would be making infrences on future economic conditions that we don't have any information on as of yet and placing bets on it. One example would be if I believed that England were to join the EU this year and placing a bet, wether on options, etc on how that would effect GBP wether against dollar or Euro. I think you see where I'm getting at. There is alot of research to be done, nothing is simple and easy, but once you draw on a theory that looks so opportunistic, I would only imagine that MM would only ruin your results. Something that big deserves big balls to go behind it. You don't break the bank of england with Money Management in the same sense that we describe. This is so off topic, sorry!
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #49
  • Dec 26, 2006 3:15pm Dec 26, 2006 3:15pm
Additionaly, we need to find people with balls as well that are willing to fund our well researched intriguing ideas. MM is necessary to us because we are confined to the box wether it be investment rules, a small bankroll, etc. Once you find like minded people with balls to back you, a mere 50 pips here and there no longer look so promising.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #50
  • Dec 26, 2006 3:20pm Dec 26, 2006 3:20pm
Quoting fxbroker
-------------------------------------------------------------------
FIBONACCI IS NOT THE HOLY GRAIL _




Fibonacci + daily support and resistance + timing + candle stick formation + strategy (counter-trader or breakout trader) = Holy Grail
(1 good long term position + enormous bankroll + 20:1 leverage)*20% profit share = holy grail
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #51
  • Dec 26, 2006 3:20pm Dec 26, 2006 3:20pm
Quoting Leugimp
I agree theoretically in what you say but I think that this simplifies the truth a bit, although that is exactly what most people search for is simplicity. However, money management will not earn you that much desired filth. While MM will keep you going, chugging along, and while it makes mathematical sense, ultimately I feel that a deep understanding of your trade and all of the little complexities involved is what will truly give you your big chance. I look at forex like a career in acting. Sure you can make a living at it being careful with a good system and MM, but if you are looking for filth what you really need to do is spot those great inefficiencies and big opportunities - ones which become so obvious to you and nobody but you, and you need to bet the house. Good MM will definitely keep you going while you wait for those opportunities, but putting your balls on the line when those big opportunities arise is what will make your filth. Essentially, what I am saying is that I believe we need good MM only because we are overtrading, as well as trading in a purely technical short time frame. We aren't speculating in its truest form, as we belive price contains all relevant information, we are truly just looking to follow suit. In a purely speculative manner, we would be making infrences on future economic conditions that we don't have any information on as of yet and placing bets on it. One example would be if I believed that England were to join the EU this year and placing a bet, wether on options, etc on how that would effect GBP wether against dollar or Euro. I think you see where I'm getting at. There is alot of research to be done, nothing is simple and easy, but once you draw on a theory that looks so opportunistic, I would only imagine that MM would only ruin your results. Something that big deserves big balls to go behind it. You don't break the bank of england with Money Management in the same sense that we describe. This is so off topic, sorry!
I have never seen some one murder the concept of money management better than this. Nicely done! I know a few ex-traders that would agree with you.
  • #52
  • Dec 26, 2006 3:33pm Dec 26, 2006 3:33pm
Quoting philmcgrew
I have never seen some one murder the concept of money management better than this. Nicely done! I know a few ex-traders that would agree with you.
I know a couple of ex traders myself that would agree - they are living out in the south of France while there property management companies cut them a check every month for 400K.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #53
  • Dec 26, 2006 3:39pm Dec 26, 2006 3:39pm
Quoting Leugimp
I know a couple of ex traders myself that would agree - they are living out in the south of France while there property management companies cut them a check every month for 400K.
With your attitude towards money management you'll soon be available to clean their pools for them.
  • #54
  • Dec 26, 2006 3:54pm Dec 26, 2006 3:54pm
Quoting philmcgrew
I have never seen some one murder the concept of money management better than this. Nicely done! I know a few ex-traders that would agree with you.
Also, there are other types of MM. Alot of times, Risk Capital should be looked as such, something you are willing to risk for a large return. Something that will not make you flinch if you lose it. If I want a steady income from forex because I NEED it, than chances are that I really dont have risk capital, I'm trying to buy an income that I need. That in itself will force me to be impatient. However, if I want the steady income, not because I necessarily need it, but because it is a career choice and I have the necessary financial backing so that I may take a loss for 2 years or more and my lifestyle will not change, now that is true MM that will have a positive influence on my career trading. Nevertheless, income day in and out is not the only goal. Great investment opportunities deserve much attention wether it be real estate, stocks, bonds, etc. If I spot a no brainer real estate deal that requires 100% of my risk capital leveraged out at 9:1 and I know I can make 500% on my money in a matter of 6 months, I jump on it right away. If you think real estate is less risk and that is why, then you really need to gain a more thorough understanding of not only real estate, but also what you do. There are always ways to structure deals that also protect you from total disasters, but they shouldn't be used to the extent that they dramatically reduce your potential return. MM is knowing what you CAN RISK. Knowledge will always increase that dramatically. A newbie at black jack or craps or whatever casino game you choose, if plays by the book, will lose slowly. People need to analyze truthfully if that is the position they are setting themselves up for. If you feel safer with real estate, than invest your time there as there are many opportunities all of the time. However, if you are just a natural investor, you will always find that those that take MM to the point that I have seen on these formus really dont feel comfortable in their method or analysis or a mix of many things. For that, MM will save them. But for those that have done the research and used every last resource to investigate and plan for the opportunity, their MM parameters widen up alot more and hence they are able to profit much more from the opportunities that they exploit. I think this is what makes the difference between traders that make money or just dont lose money, and traders that make great wealth.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #55
  • Dec 26, 2006 4:01pm Dec 26, 2006 4:01pm
Money Management and Fibonacci are two different aspects of successful trading approach!

Successful trading is 60% SELF MANAGEMENT , 40% RISK Management which by return subdivides into 20% MONEY MANAGEMENT and 20% TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!
Develop these three aspects and u will have YOUR holy grail that fits ur personality!

Happy Holidays
  • #56
  • Dec 26, 2006 4:11pm Dec 26, 2006 4:11pm
I can't resist...MM is good. Gotta have it. It should be part of the whole package. For example, you have a trading strategy that includes pivot points, fibo, elliot wave, etc., you would not enter a trade just because a fibo number got hit, would you? Trading any leveraged instrument requires a package of tools to be successful - including a money management plan. You won't make it in the long run trying to make the big score whenever you think you see that opportunity. Consistant profits over time win the race. Over time, your "small consistant profits" become large consistant profits and you end up living anywhere you want!


Kind regards,
hotshot
  • #57
  • Dec 26, 2006 4:17pm Dec 26, 2006 4:17pm
Quoting mosad2
Money Management and Fibonacci are two different aspects of successful trading approach!

Successful trading is 60% SELF MANAGEMENT , 40% RISK Management which by return subdivides into 20% MONEY MANAGEMENT and 20% TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!
Develop these three aspects and u will have YOUR holy grail that fits ur personality!

Happy Holidays
Well said, not just because of the content. It is decisive and if that is what you believe, than you should focus your efforts 100% on maximizing this knowledge to put $s in your account. Just like there are many ways in calculating GDP, there are a myriad of formulas one can use to define success. For me it is also...

Successful Trading = 100% analysis(only 100 because if more you will go nuts) + 100% planning(over planning will not leave you open for unexpected adjustments) + 200%execution(this is comparable to your self management) + 500% BALLS(if you have the first parts mastered, without this one you will eventually be doomed to failure. Just like a fighter needs specific knowledge, training, and confidence to be able to confide in his own courage to fight, so must a trader equip himself properly so that he may have the balls to do all of the above).

I think a book should be written about it
"Grow your balls to greater profits"
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #58
  • Dec 26, 2006 4:25pm Dec 26, 2006 4:25pm
Try listening to AC/DC before entering a trade!
  • #59
  • Dec 26, 2006 4:28pm Dec 26, 2006 4:28pm
Quoting Hotshotfx
I can't resist...MM is good. Gotta have it. It should be part of the whole package. For example, you have a trading strategy that includes pivot points, fibo, elliot wave, etc., you would not enter a trade just because a fibo number got hit, would you? Trading any leveraged instrument requires a package of tools to be successful - including a money management plan. You won't make it in the long run trying to make the big score whenever you think you see that opportunity. Consistant profits over time win the race. Over time, your "small consistant profits" become large consistant profits and you end up living anywhere you want!


Kind regards,
hotshot
I hear you man, and I agree that with certain methods it is necessary. What I was really talking about was not some day in day out strategy to make consistent profits, what I really mean is that when the grandaddy of all opportunities that you have been researching and spending all of your energy on shows up and you are ready for it and have a plan for it, risk 100% of what you are capable of risking and what I mean by capable is as much of your money without hurting yourself, and as much of other peoples money as possible. This may sound unethical, but if you are honest in your presentation of the opportunity and the risks involved, than let a man be a man and let er rip. You will make more money in this one opportunity with all of this pooled money than you will make in a long time of trading these other consistent methodical methods. Then you will have more money to go back and trade these methods with until another opportunity presents itself. I don't believe opportunities of this sort are patterns you just wait to appear, I believe they are a culmination of many different things, a thurough walk forward analysis, microscopic observation of events as they unfold, and a conspiracy theory type well thought out speculation.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #60
  • Edited 3:57am Dec 27, 2006 3:29am | Edited 3:57am
Quoting syd360
very true
Quoting Leugimp
I agree theoretically in what you say but I think that this simplifies the truth a bit, although that is exactly what most people search for is simplicity. However, money management will not earn you that much desired filth. While MM will keep you going, chugging along, and while it makes mathematical sense, ultimately I feel that a deep understanding of your trade and all of the little complexities involved is what will truly give you your big chance. I look at forex like a career in acting. Sure you can make a living at it being careful with a good system and MM, but if you are looking for filth what you really need to do is spot those great inefficiencies and big opportunities - ones which become so obvious to you and nobody but you, and you need to bet the house. Good MM will definitely keep you going while you wait for those opportunities, but putting your balls on the line when those big opportunities arise is what will make your filth. Essentially, what I am saying is that I believe we need good MM only because we are overtrading, as well as trading in a purely technical short time frame. We aren't speculating in its truest form, as we belive price contains all relevant information, we are truly just looking to follow suit. In a purely speculative manner, we would be making infrences on future economic conditions that we don't have any information on as of yet and placing bets on it. One example would be if I believed that England were to join the EU this year and placing a bet, wether on options, etc on how that would effect GBP wether against dollar or Euro. I think you see where I'm getting at. There is alot of research to be done, nothing is simple and easy, but once you draw on a theory that looks so opportunistic, I would only imagine that MM would only ruin your results. Something that big deserves big balls to go behind it. You don't break the bank of england with Money Management in the same sense that we describe. This is so off topic, sorry!
for your information, i have been a consistent and very profitable trader for 2 years using the same system for 2 years so dont tell me "money management will not earn you that much desired filth" because im a breathing example of a successful trader... you see, it turns out that if you know your system, like really KNOW it, then you can use aggressive MM for high probability setups and be conservative with low probability setups... and had i not known my system well and used appropriate MM my WINNING system would be a LOSING system, its a FACT, its a fact because I HAVE DONE THE MATH - it would actually be a LOSING system without MM.

so it looks like MM turned out to be the "holy grail" in my case. fascinating...

While you dictate to people that MM is nothing great, i would like to ask you something: how long have you been CONSISTANTLY making good returns, compounding your account? please post or PM your account statement. I’m more then happy to PM my very encouraging statement. I know your not happy with the amount of money you make because you wouldnt be posting new threads trying to make a new sytem that would hopefully compensate for your lack of success thus far.

sorry but that’s the SECOND time you have accused me of "being too general"... but for your information, i cant give a 5000 word essay every time explaining exactly what i meant, it would be interpreted differently by everyone anyway and i dont like to dictate people (unlike you) on what to do. when i say "MM is good" im just trying to send a message accross so maybe someone will investigate this and learn it FOR THEMSELVES using their OWN experiences. Trading is a case by case basis, theres no point dictating to someone exactly how to trade, it doesnt work like that because trading is one of the most complicated and difficult things a human being can ever do. If what you think was true everyone would be rich. But wake up.. 95% of traders FAIL in the long term. hopefully EVERYONE here, can be in the top 5%, thats why im here, to give constructive criticism not feed them with bullshit.

The best way for someone to learn something is to test out the advice themselves, that way it really stays in their head when real cash has been lost or gained... dont feed people bullshit that MM is not important, it may not be important in every system, but it usually is very important most systems.

So all i request from you is that you show me or everyone your account statement seeing that you have right to downplay hard work and encourage laziness.

Thug LIFe !
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