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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,941
  • Nov 4, 2007 1:23pm Nov 4, 2007 1:23pm
Unfortunately I've been quite busy this weekend so without posting any charts, I will give you some analysis.

I suspect there is a bit more up movement left in GJ - a good place to short or add to shorts would be around 240.90. Coming back to that resistance line possibly for the last time before a major fall.

I see the DOW poking its head just above 13,700 and GU going to around 2.1030.

At the levels I have just mentioned, all three will reach strong resistance once again. Therefore my plan is to be short at or around those levels by scaling in.

This is not guaranteed and price could break the resistance. In that case I would expect a fairly big north move and have my positions reversed. But again, I'll be short while within the brick walls.
  • #13,942
  • Nov 4, 2007 2:45pm Nov 4, 2007 2:45pm
Quoting Zoran

This is not guaranteed and price could break the resistance. In that case I would expect a fairly big north move and have my positions reversed. But again, I'll be short while within the brick walls.
zoran, very much agree with u!
so far neither direction is certain. only certain could be, no matter which way it goes---it will be a big one.

Question is how long do we wait? till Thursday ECB, BOE release?
  • #13,943
  • Nov 4, 2007 3:05pm Nov 4, 2007 3:05pm
Quoting winwise
Monarch,
nice chart!
but, do u use them to direct your trades?
Absolutely, I watch every supp/res area along with historical areas and trendlines with Fibo marks.

The craziest thing of it all is, I watch the GJ and EJ the same, and only trade the EJ Pair on a 5min/1min and sometimes 5 second chart.

The important thing is to find the areas of most probability, and I would not be taking a LONG if price is up against some strong resistance, but I would take a LONG once price retraces and the price starts it's move back towards that resisitance.

Price remembers areas well, and it is like a rubber band, it gets stretched out in a specific direction, then when it cannot stretch no further, it snaps back towards a more comfortable area, I wait for the area where the range sets in, the once it sees it has rested and decides to break to a new area, I jump in and get my pips.

I only make about 5-7 trades in a 24 hour period, and most of them last no more then 15 minutes, occasionally it may last 30 minutes, but I will always know where the price has been, and wants to go, and trade with the trend always.

Ken
  • #13,944
  • Nov 4, 2007 3:17pm Nov 4, 2007 3:17pm
The Market opens with a small gap downwards of about 17 pips, I am expecting support here at 239.20 area at the Daily Pivot, then a move up to close the gap around 239.90 area.

Once we complete this move, then there should be some continuation on the downward move probably up to the Frankurt/London open time.

During the next few hours up to the Pre-London open, I expect the price to range in the low 238.80/90 area up to 239.80/90 area.

I do not enter trades until at least two markets are open ASIA/LONDON or LONDON/NY.
  • #13,945
  • Nov 5, 2007 1:29am Nov 5, 2007 1:29am
Quoting monarch
The Market opens with a small gap downwards of about 17 pips, I am expecting support here at 239.20 area at the Daily Pivot, then a move up to close the gap around 239.90 area.

Once we complete this move, then there should be some continuation on the downward move probably up to the Frankurt/London open time.

During the next few hours up to the Pre-London open, I expect the price to range in the low 238.80/90 area up to 239.80/90 area.

I do not enter trades until at least two markets are open ASIA/LONDON or LONDON/NY.
239.20 was last night's support. i tried a long there and end up with a small lost. right now, 239.24 is its limit.
further downturn is expected
  • #13,946
  • Nov 5, 2007 1:38am Nov 5, 2007 1:38am
Good morning,

I'm short this morning from 239.2 on the break of a t/l just before the London open.

We are at the mid point on the daily channel and the lower edge on the hourly channel, normally I would want to buy here but it looks bearish to me with a fall to maybe to around 237 which is the daily declining t/l area. I would like to think it would find support in that region for another push up.

As I type I notice price just fell, that would be on some GBP news I'm guessing as it has just passed 9:30.
  • #13,947
  • Nov 5, 2007 1:51am Nov 5, 2007 1:51am
Quoting Wolf.
Good morning,

I'm short this morning from 239.2 on the break of a t/l just before the London open.

We are at the mid point on the daily channel and the lower edge on the hourly channel, normally I would want to buy here but it looks bearish to me with a fall to maybe to around 237 which is the daily declining t/l area. I would like to think it would find support in that region for another push up.

As I type I notice price just fell, that would be on some GBP news I'm guessing as it has just passed 9:30.
yes, u r right just pasr 9;30
i am waiting it rebounce to 23868 to short, for safe.
i had a short from 239.64 last night, closed at23917. there were a false signal on 15 mins chart suggest a slight reverse trend.
and i missed a short opp at 23900....
not a good day for me yet
  • #13,948
  • Edited 2:09am Nov 5, 2007 1:55am | Edited 2:09am
Added 238.19 tight stop!

Edit: stop moved to +1 on this position.

Reason for trade: playing the rejection of the underside of the 1H channel.

Closed +46 may find support here still have my other shorts open.
  • #13,949
  • Nov 5, 2007 2:00am Nov 5, 2007 2:00am
Quoting Wolf.
Added 238.19 tight stop!

Edit: stop moved to +1 on this position.

Reason for trade: playing the rejection of the underside of the 1H channel.
Gj has some support at 23773 region.

is this a long?
  • #13,950
  • Nov 5, 2007 2:03am Nov 5, 2007 2:03am
Quoting winwise
yes, u r right just pasr 9;30
i am waiting it rebounce to 23868 to short, for safe.
i had a short from 239.64 last night, closed at23917. there were a false signal on 15 mins chart suggest a slight reverse trend.
and i missed a short opp at 23900....
not a good day for me yet

Hi Winwise,

You are still in profit so that sounds like a good day to me .
  • #13,951
  • Nov 5, 2007 2:05am Nov 5, 2007 2:05am
not a good day for me yet either... sat here wand watched the trend.........waiting for a good entry at the time
  • #13,952
  • Nov 5, 2007 2:07am Nov 5, 2007 2:07am
Price is at 0 fib and just above 50 EMA
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 hr.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #13,953
  • Nov 5, 2007 2:31am Nov 5, 2007 2:31am
Trying another short here 238.16 with a tight stop again.

Same reason for trade.
  • #13,954
  • Nov 5, 2007 2:42am Nov 5, 2007 2:42am
Quoting Wolf.
Trying another short here 238.16 with a tight stop again.

Same reason for trade.
right now? it may goes back to 23865 range later. i will short from them. i reckon it will fall to challenge.

and then it will be a free fall!
  • #13,955
  • Edited 3:22am Nov 5, 2007 2:50am | Edited 3:22am
Quoting winwise
right now? it may goes back to 23865 range later. i will short from them. i reckon it will fall to challenge.

and then it will be a free fall!
You may be right but my risk is small 15 pips.

In my view it is a good place to short and a very good low risk entry with a conservative 1:5 risk/reward potentially more.

Moved my stop to +1

Moved stop to 237.9

Closed at 58 for +58 Reason near declining daily t/l
  • #13,956
  • Nov 5, 2007 3:04am Nov 5, 2007 3:04am
Quoting Wolf.
You may be right but my risk is small 15 pips.

In my view it is a good place to short and is very good low risk entry with a conservative 1:5 risk/reward potentially more.

Moved my stop to +1

yeah, mate.
Swing trade is always good stuff.
this pair starts getting in a boring trading range
  • #13,957
  • Nov 5, 2007 4:52am Nov 5, 2007 4:52am
got cold yesterday. This is probably why my brain is not responding well to this market.

having some ginger lemon tea and go to bed.

23700 has some strong support. it may be not very sensible to long from 721. but may worth a try
  • #13,958
  • Nov 5, 2007 4:56am Nov 5, 2007 4:56am
i closed a long from 721, 773.
50point.
go to bed to recovery my brain now.
  • #13,959
  • Nov 5, 2007 5:01am Nov 5, 2007 5:01am
it seems GJ isnt gonna have a modest bounce right now.

the price will go down to 23700

a buy from there is recommended for a rebounce to 23860.

and a short from there.....

see, i got a plan
go to bed now. see u guys later
  • #13,960
  • Nov 5, 2007 12:54pm Nov 5, 2007 12:54pm
Quoting winwise
zoran, very much agree with u!
so far neither direction is certain. only certain could be, no matter which way it goes---it will be a big one.

Question is how long do we wait? till Thursday ECB, BOE release?
Not sure when but I am expecting a big move. I'm favouring the short side and positioning appropriately for now.
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