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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #2,361
  • Dec 25, 2006 10:09am Dec 25, 2006 10:09am
Quoting marc
Hi!

1,9730?????

Where do you see that?

M
Cable is 1.9736 at bloomberg at present !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #2,362
  • Dec 25, 2006 10:29am Dec 25, 2006 10:29am
If you think the GBP had a good run (currently 1.9735) .. Check out the AUD .. it's currently at 0.8050 .. and even more amazing .. look at AUD crosses ..

check out EURAUD it's dropped over 400 pips ...WOW
  • #2,363
  • Dec 25, 2006 1:48pm Dec 25, 2006 1:48pm
Hi!!!

Thank you!

Why was that?

Market is closed.

M.
  • #2,364
  • Dec 25, 2006 1:50pm Dec 25, 2006 1:50pm
Can someone tell me when the American Forex market opens again? I have an account with 1 World Forex here in the states but cannot find their holiday operating hours anywhere on their site.


Thanks
  • #2,365
  • Dec 25, 2006 5:04pm Dec 25, 2006 5:04pm
Hello itme:


I really like checking out your posts concerning the GBP/USD. You seem to have a pretty good handle on this pair. Do you feel this is a good time to go long on this pair?

Cheers,

fxgrm
  • #2,366
  • Dec 25, 2006 5:23pm Dec 25, 2006 5:23pm
Merry Christmas, peace and joy to everyone.

Thank you everyone for your comments and information.

My charts are dead so I don't have any information on currency moves since Friday's close.

My theory about GBP/USD - I will explain in a moment.

The way I see it is this - according to my style of trading I am trying to decipher the patterns in the market and thereby predict its movements. The goal is to find good trading opportunities. At any particular moment the situation will possess three attributes - degree of clarity or certainty, strategic value of the situation, and accuracy of knowledge. What I look for are opportunities which have a high degree of certainty, accuracy, and strategic value. Strategic value means the likelihood of an impending large, fast movement, combined with the opportunity to enter with a small stop. This gives a high reward : risk ratio. There are trades with high confidence and high accuracy, but a low reward : risk ratio. These are very common. There are strategically excellent trades with low accuracy or low confidence. We look for situations which combine all three attributes. And we can anticipate them sometimes. At other times unexpected moves result in them suddenly appearing.

My theory is that GBP/USD just finished the second downwards wave of the fifth upwards wave of an upwards extended third wave. The pattern is irregular so the confidence of the hypothesis is medium. If this hypothesis is correct, then we anticipate the upwards third wave of the fifth wave which should be long and strong. A long at 1.9560 might be a good investment, but I haven't spent enough time on it to be sure. So I am waiting for the top of the third wave to enter a short on the fourth wave, or a long at the bottom of the fourth wave, or a short at the top of the fifth wave. If things don't unfold as expected, then we will develop a new wave hypothesis.

Happy New Year!
  • #2,367
  • Dec 25, 2006 7:50pm Dec 25, 2006 7:50pm
Quoting itme
Hi FixMe1Too,

Good suggestion. How about if we start a thread dedicated to sharing Elliott Wave count images and comments?

Itme
this is a good idea ..... so many wavers in here but they dont post a chart with thgier wave count
  • #2,368
  • Dec 25, 2006 8:29pm Dec 25, 2006 8:29pm
Quoting marketwavez
this is a good idea ..... so many wavers in here but they dont post a chart with thgier wave count
I third the motion.
  • #2,369
  • Dec 26, 2006 11:30am Dec 26, 2006 11:30am
I fourth the motion
  • #2,370
  • Dec 26, 2006 1:36pm Dec 26, 2006 1:36pm
If anybody starts this thread with EW charts, please post a link here too.

Quoting guppy
I fourth the motion
  • #2,371
  • Dec 26, 2006 3:03pm Dec 26, 2006 3:03pm
To trade by Elliott Wave, one studies charts and counts the waves, learning to recognise the patterns, following the basic structure, familiarising oneself with the look and feel of the waves on different currency pairs and time frames, and learns to analyse as well as get the "feel" of the typical proportions of the waves, the wave geometry, the channels and trendlines.

The Elliottician is a traditional chartist, primarily analysing price patterns, armed with some extra tools due to the computerised chart. To the chartist, numbers and lines are the primary tools, not moving average lines, pivot points, Bollinger Bands, MACD's, CCI's, Stochastics, RSI's, Ichimoku Clouds, etc.

The Elliottician learns to hold the wave patterns on different scales in his mind simultaneously in order to cognise the summation of the fractal formula of all the simultaneous patterns on different time frames, thus understanding the next wave surge or ebb of the price pattern to fulfil the periodicity of all the cycles on all timeframes.

If you can figure out the correct count most of the time, then with a little bit of strategy, you have the game mastered.

"The count is the thing"

- Elliott Shakespeare
  • #2,372
  • Dec 26, 2006 3:35pm Dec 26, 2006 3:35pm
So when do you think you might do more expirements for us to look at the are so helpful???and is there a website or class that i can find to teach me this.Thank you so much ..........kit.

Quoting itme
To trade by Elliott Wave, one studies charts and counts the waves, learning to recognise the patterns, following the basic structure, familiarising oneself with the look and feel of the waves on different currency pairs and time frames, and learns to analyse as well as get the "feel" of the typical proportions of the waves, the wave geometry, the channels and trendlines.

The Elliottician is a traditional chartist, primarily analysing price patterns, armed with some extra tools due to the computerised chart. To the chartist, numbers and lines are the primary tools, not moving average lines, pivot points, Bollinger Bands, MACD's, CCI's, Stochastics, RSI's, Ichimoku Clouds, etc.

The Elliottician learns to hold the wave patterns on different scales in his mind simultaneously in order to cognise the summation of the fractal formula of all the simultaneous patterns on different time frames, thus understanding the next wave surge or ebb of the price pattern to fulfil the periodicity of all the cycles on all timeframes.

If you can figure out the correct count most of the time, then with a little bit of strategy, you have the game mastered.

"The count is the thing"

- Elliott Shakespeare
  • #2,373
  • Dec 26, 2006 3:59pm Dec 26, 2006 3:59pm
USD/CHF Wave Hypothesis for December 26, 2006 at 17:00 ET:

A downwards impulse wave since October 16, 2006 at 1.2770 is carrying USD/CHF towards 1.1450 in a few months (an 11.5% decline). This is part of a larger downtrend that began February 28, 2006 at 1.3235. At that time, employing Elliott Wave and Q System analysis, I predicted a strong downturn targetting about 1.1300, a 17% decline.

The current uptrend that began December 5, 2006 is headed to between 1.2300 and 1.2400, at which point we will be blessed by a very favorable short trading opportunity with low risk and high reward potential.

The short term current pattern is amenable to a variety of different wave interpretations, so the certainty level is low. We could see a decline from here to the 1.2100 area, as Trade Experiment #297 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2220 is predicated upon. Or we could see a rise to 1.2300

My guess is that the price of USD/CHF will rise from its current value at 1.2230 up to 1.2250, then fall to 1.2205, then rise to about 1.2300. Then it will begin its larger move down to about 1.2050, which would present a favorable trading opportunity.
__________________________________________________
__________________________________________________

Previous trade experiments:

Friday December 22 at 20:30 ET
Trade Experiment #297 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2220
Stop is 1.2247
Target is 1.2090
Risk is 31 pips
Reward is 126 pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 4.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

Trading C Wave of Wave 4 down.
__________________________________________________ ____
__________________________________________________ ____
USD/CHF Update for Friday December 22 at 5:00 ET

Our Trade Experiment #290 Buy USD/CHF at 1.2123 of December 19 would have given us 75 pips of profit [p.s. - as of the current high, 107 pips of profit], but we cancelled that trade experiment due to doubts (uncertainty) about the wave count. The high reached was 1.2202 [p.s. - now it's 1.2234].

Our comment "p.s. - According to my micro-Elliott Wave analysis and Q analysis, 1.2110 is the precise bottom of this trend. This is a high probability reversal value." turned out to be accurate.

We entered a trade buying GBP/USD at 9:40 ET December 21, and at the same time USD/CHF topped out and descended from 1.2202 to a recent low of 1.2116, 86 pips lower. The next move should be the "c" wave of the B Wave up to about 1.2200, followed by the C Wave down to about 1.2100 before the next big swing wave (Wave 5) up to about 1.2300.

p.s. - USD/CHF just rose to our Q target at 1.2205 as predicted, and will reverse now (or soon).
__________________________________________________ ________
__________________________________________________ ________

Wednesday December 20 at 6:30 ET

Exit Trade Experiment #290 Buy USD/CHF at 1.2128

Re-enter long trade at 1.2070 if the micro downwards wave 5 is complete.
__________________________________________________ ______
__________________________________________________ ______

Tuesday December 19 at 19:00 ET
Trade Experiment #290 Buy USD/CHF at 1.2123
Stop is 1.2089
Target is 1.2400
Risk is 37 pips
Reward is 273 pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 7.4 to 1

For research purposes only.

This is trading Wave 5 upwards.

p.s. - According to my micro-Elliott Wave analysis and Q analysis, 1.2110 is the precise bottom of this trend. This is a high probabilitiy reversal value.
  • #2,374
  • Edited 6:17pm Dec 26, 2006 4:09pm | Edited 6:17pm
Quoting turn1to100
So when do you think you might do more expirements for us to look at the are so helpful???and is there a website or class that i can find to teach me this.Thank you so much ..........kit.
Thanks for your comment, turn1t0100. I suggest that you read and study the entire thread "The Fundamentals of Elliott Wave Theory" in the Beginners Forum for all the basics. Study, reflect, review, observe the market patterns, question, research, strategise, experiment, practise. Keep it simple. Trust the wave theory. Be logical. I think everything you really need to know about Elliott Wave Theory is in the above thread or linked to that thread. The videos are helpful too.

Another basic concept is trend lines. I think you may get some important ideas that are very practical on trendlines on this thread by GalvestonForex: Yesterday +140, December +1000 in the Forex Discussion area of the site ( http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/showthread.php?t=11546 )

Also, I feel that it is important to get a firm grasp on how announcements influence the market. There are several threads on forex factory on trading the news, and I noticed one today that looked very informative from the classified section of this forum in the reader's lounge:

amazingforexsystem ( 1 2 3 4 5 ) fx4x

Put the three knowledge sets together and voila - you may become a master trader! I think it will take the average person several months at least to develop enough understanding, familiarity and confidence to identify and capitalise on favorable trade opportunities on a consistent basis. The complexity level is quite high to truly master all this. Patience, hard work, and humility are needed.
  • #2,375
  • Dec 26, 2006 9:57pm Dec 26, 2006 9:57pm
Thank alot
Quoting itme
Thanks for your comment, turn1t0100. I suggest that you read and study the entire thread "The Fundamentals of Elliott Wave Theory" in the Beginners Forum for all the basics. Study, reflect, review, observe the market patterns, question, research, strategise, experiment, practise. Keep it simple. Trust the wave theory. Be logical. I think everything you really need to know about Elliott Wave Theory is in the above thread or linked to that thread. The videos are helpful too.

Another basic concept is trend lines. I think you may get some important ideas that are very practical on trendlines on this thread by GalvestonForex: Yesterday +140, December +1000 in the Forex Discussion area of the site ( http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/showthread.php?t=11546 )

Also, I feel that it is important to get a firm grasp on how announcements influence the market. There are several threads on forex factory on trading the news, and I noticed one today that looked very informative from the classified section of this forum in the reader's lounge:

amazingforexsystem ( 1 2 3 4 5 ) fx4x

Put the three knowledge sets together and voila - you may become a master trader! I think it will take the average person several months at least to develop enough understanding, familiarity and confidence to identify and capitalise on favorable trade opportunities on a consistent basis. The complexity level is quite high to truly master all this. Patience, hard work, and humility are needed.
  • #2,376
  • Dec 26, 2006 11:21pm Dec 26, 2006 11:21pm
OK, I'm still far from Elliott, even further from Shakespeare, but I'd say that the quote should be changed to "The count is the king"

Have a good trading year 2007 everyone !

Quoting itme
To trade by Elliott Wave, one studies charts and counts the waves, learning to recognise the patterns, following the basic structure, familiarising oneself with the look and feel of the waves on different currency pairs and time frames, and learns to analyse as well as get the "feel" of the typical proportions of the waves, the wave geometry, the channels and trendlines.

The Elliottician is a traditional chartist, primarily analysing price patterns, armed with some extra tools due to the computerised chart. To the chartist, numbers and lines are the primary tools, not moving average lines, pivot points, Bollinger Bands, MACD's, CCI's, Stochastics, RSI's, Ichimoku Clouds, etc.

The Elliottician learns to hold the wave patterns on different scales in his mind simultaneously in order to cognise the summation of the fractal formula of all the simultaneous patterns on different time frames, thus understanding the next wave surge or ebb of the price pattern to fulfil the periodicity of all the cycles on all timeframes.

If you can figure out the correct count most of the time, then with a little bit of strategy, you have the game mastered.

"The count is the thing"

- Elliott Shakespeare
  • #2,377
  • Dec 27, 2006 5:45am Dec 27, 2006 5:45am
NZD/USD prediction for December 27, 2006:

NZD/USD is near the end of a 1200 pip 5 - wave impulsive uptrend which began in June of 2006. The turning point is between .7150 and .7200. There may be a good trading opportunity at that time. The recent high is .7039.
  • #2,378
  • Dec 27, 2006 6:28am Dec 27, 2006 6:28am
AUD/CAD prediction for December 27, 2006:

AUD/CAD is near the end of a 1000 pip 5 - wave impulsive uptrend which began in June of 2006. The turning point is between .9140 and .9160. There may be a good trading opportunity at that time. The recent high is .9136.

_______________________________________________
_______________________________________________

Previous trade experiment:

Successfull trade #278 Buy AUD/CAD at .8985

AUD/CAD came two pips short of our original target of .9100 for Re-enter Trade Experiment #278 Buy AUD/CAD at market price of .8985. The target was somewhat approximate when the trade was entered, and should have been adjusted at the time near to the approach of the target. We would have advised exit at .9097 according to our targetting system nearer to the time that the top was reached.

The entry on this trade was very high precision, giving a risk of only 19 pips, and a reward of 103 pips, making the reward / risk ratio of 5.4
  • #2,379
  • Dec 27, 2006 6:39am Dec 27, 2006 6:39am
Hi Itme, I discovered this thread recently and reviewed some of your past postings and started to appreciate your insight and maturity in trading.

I see strong signs of weakness of the european currencies vs the dollar although fundamentals point to a weak dollar. I know that wave theory attempts to forecast beside moves and turning points also probable timing. Do you foresee a push in the last few days of the calendar year ?

In one of your recent postings you were experimenting a short on CHF. Do you keep this experiment valid or you consider the burst to 1.2157 as complete?

Stefan
  • #2,380
  • Dec 27, 2006 6:51am Dec 27, 2006 6:51am
Happy new year to all of you. Thanking you all for insight and help. Wish you all 2007 to be a dream come true year ...........!
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