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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,921
  • Nov 3, 2007 7:03am Nov 3, 2007 7:03am
Quoting Wolf.
Thanks Winwise looks like you did OK as well.

Turned into a very good day for me I bought again at the declining t/l 238.58 so I had three positions going into the news, closed two just below S1 when the the trend line broke on the 1m chart at 240.10. Had hoped it would keep going towards 241 and beyond. Held onto the last position and took +10. Bought again at the same trend line at 238.41, still open will hold unless things start looking bearish.
Yes, wolf, the current trading isn't look very bearish, is it?!
I am just waiting. was gonna short from 23986 region base on the 15 min chart. however, waited a couple of candle to close to confirm. and it wasnt confirmed. so i am just waiting.

swing trade is my favourite. however, when u keep doing it for long time, u lost middle term direction sense:

carry trade will play a big factor in next two weeks. right now i am still favour a big south move which seems will start in 2-3 days time
  • #13,922
  • Nov 3, 2007 7:39am Nov 3, 2007 7:39am
Just want to let everyone know that almost all candles (even the super bearish 1000pip drop ones) all went up (and/or opened with a gap) anywhere from 20pips-200pips so even though G/J may end the week around 240 we could see 241 in the early end of next week followed by a huge drop the remainder of the week. So I'm bearish next week but still keeping my long into next week
  • #13,923
  • Nov 3, 2007 3:53pm Nov 3, 2007 3:53pm
I am posting 4 charts from the Daily Timeframe, with each chart showing the progress of the market for a longterm period.

This is by no means a trade recommendation, but simply chart analysis.

Have a great weekend.

Ken

Chart #1
Summarizes the move from March 2007 Low to the High in July 2007 then back to the Low in August 2007.

I have a Fibo Expansion 61.8% from the those 3 points of reference projecting the price to 243.51 which is 216 pips from the High on Thursday 11/1/2007.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ Daily #1 11-2-07.jpg Size: 60 KB
  • #13,924
  • Nov 3, 2007 4:07pm Nov 3, 2007 4:07pm
Chart #2
Summary
You can see the 241.49 High 1/23/2007 on the left of the charts.

Fibo Extension
Low close at 225.76
High close at 239.81
Low close at 232.83

61.8 Extension is at 241.44 just 5 pips from the 1/23/2007 high.

I also ran a trend line from 1/23/2007 across the high on 8/8/2007 at 244.06 which shows that we could come up to tap that trend line in coming weeks possibly.

Also I have the Fibo Extension 100% on this at 246.34 where the red line and circle show on the top right of the chart.

This would come to the low close we had on 7/10/2007 at 246.87 area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ Daily # 2 11-2-07.jpg Size: 70 KB
  • #13,925
  • Nov 3, 2007 4:16pm Nov 3, 2007 4:16pm
Chart #3
Summary

Low close 8/18/2007 at 221.48
High close 10/15/2007 at 240.64
Low close 10/22/2007 at 232.83

These 3 points of reference reveals the move up to 241.44 which we came short 9 pips of reaching Thursday 11/1/2007.

If I had placed the Fibo Extension on the Wicks of each high and low, the 61.8 Extension would be 243.40 which is near the projection from chart #2.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ Daily #3 11-2-07.jpg Size: 61 KB
  • #13,926
  • Nov 3, 2007 4:38pm Nov 3, 2007 4:38pm
Chart #4

Summary

On this chart I have the Fibo Extension using the wicks
Low 219.30
High 241.64
Low 230.27

61.8% Extension is the yellow dotted line at 243.40
100% Extension would be 251.60 which would be the test of the High on 7/20/2007 at 251.09.

Secondly, I have a Fibo in green from the Low Close at 232.83 on 10/22/07 and the High Close at 240.15 on 11/1/2007.

Based on the 161.8% Extension the price projection is 244.67 above the 244.07/11 Double Top Test from 8/8/2007 at 244.06.

If you ran the Fibo from the wicks of those two Low and High areas, the 161.8% fibo extension would be 248.30 and the 261.8% is 251.99 above the all time high.

Based on the candle close of October, I would say we are in a ranging period for a bit, then should see these areas upcoming and even a test of the high at 251.00

But first there could be more retracement back towards the 237.50 and even towards 236 area allowing the bulls time to load up with strength to make this push upwards by the end of the year.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ Daily #4 11-2-07.jpg Size: 71 KB
  • #13,927
  • Nov 4, 2007 2:18am Nov 4, 2007 2:18am
Quoting monarch
Chart #4

Summary

On this chart I have the Fibo Extension using the wicks
Low 219.30
High 241.64
Low 230.27

61.8% Extension is the yellow dotted line at 243.40
100% Extension would be 251.60 which would be the test of the High on 7/20/2007 at 251.09.

Secondly, I have a Fibo in green from the Low Close at 232.83 on 10/22/07 and the High Close at 240.15 on 11/1/2007.

Based on the 161.8% Extension the price projection is 244.67 above the 244.07/11 Double Top Test from 8/8/2007 at 244.06.

If you ran the Fibo from the wicks of those two Low and High areas, the 161.8% fibo extension would be 248.30 and the 261.8% is 251.99 above the all time high.

Based on the candle close of October, I would say we are in a ranging period for a bit, then should see these areas upcoming and even a test of the high at 251.00

But first there could be more retracement back towards the 237.50 and even towards 236 area allowing the bulls time to load up with strength to make this push upwards by the end of the year.
Agree
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,928
  • Nov 4, 2007 5:44am Nov 4, 2007 5:44am
Very Nice chart.

Here is my Monthly GJ Chart showing trend lines and Support/Resistances.

The 1-2-3-4 are the Fibo Extensions that project price to 249.67 which is right under the trend line from Sep 1986 Low to the High on Aug 1998.

Were right at the 241.06 which is an historical high also from Aug 1998.

Even though this chart is showing upward momementum, there is always a possibility that the high at 251.07 may be the extent of this upward move, depending on what happens to the Economies of the world in the near future.

Next I am going to post a chart of a possible move downwards.

This is not a trade recommendation, but a simple analysis of the GJ.

Enjoy!

Ken

Click chart to enlarge.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly GJ.JPG Size: 75 KB
  • #13,929
  • Nov 4, 2007 5:51am Nov 4, 2007 5:51am
Posts like these are always the reason why I keep coming back to FF.
Thanks Monarch


Quoting monarch
Very Nice chart.

Here is my Monthly GJ Chart showing trend lines and Support/Resistances.

The 1-2-3-4 are the Fibo Extensions that project price to 249.67 which is right under the trend line from Sep 1986 Low to the High on Aug 1998.

Were right at the 241.06 which is an historical high also from Aug 1998.

Even though this chart is showing upward momementum, there is always a possibility that the high at 251.07 may be the extent of this upward move, depending on what happens to the Economies of the world in the near future.

Next I am going to post a chart of a possible move downwards.

This is not a trade recommendation, but a simple analysis of the GJ.

Enjoy!

Ken

Click chart to enlarge.
  • #13,930
  • Edited 4:12pm Nov 4, 2007 5:57am | Edited 4:12pm
Good Morning,

Just a simple view on the 4H, the 238 level looks a great buy to me with 240.5 being the critical level to breach for more sustained longs.

I don't know what the weekend price is but price closed around 240 so maybe a gap up to 240.5 then a retrace back to 240 support to take us through 240.5, just speculation it may gap down.

I'm looking for initial targets of 244 area with 241.8 and 243 being area's of resistance, 240.98 the high from 010898.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 4h 041107.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #13,931
  • Nov 4, 2007 6:16am Nov 4, 2007 6:16am
Quoting Wolf.
Good Morning,

Just a simple view on the 4H, the 238 level looks a great buy to me with 240.5 being the critical level to breach for more sustained longs.

I don't know what the weekend price is but price closed around 240 so maybe a gap up to 240.5 then a retrace back to 240 support to take us through 240.5, just speculation it may gap down.

I'm looking for initial targets of 244 area with 241.8 and 243 be area's of resistance, 240.98 the high from 010898.
Price today is 239.70 as per www.xe.com
  • #13,932
  • Nov 4, 2007 6:18am Nov 4, 2007 6:18am
Quoting Wolf.
Good Morning,

Just a simple view on the 4H, the 238 level looks a great buy to me with 240.5 being the critical level to breach for more sustained longs.

I don't know what the weekend price is but price closed around 240 so maybe a gap up to 240.5 then a retrace back to 240 support to take us through 240.5, just speculation it may gap down.

I'm looking for initial targets of 244 area with 241.8 and 243 be area's of resistance, 240.98 the high from 010898.
I agree, I will wait for a retracement before I go Long.

Here are the weekend prices as of 7:15 EST Sunday Morning.
Attached Image
  • #13,933
  • Nov 4, 2007 6:20am Nov 4, 2007 6:20am
Quoting zoheir
Price today is 239.70 as per www.xe.com
Thanks Zoheir.

I should have checked myself, just being lazy on a Sunday morning.


Edit: Thank you too Monarch .
  • #13,934
  • Nov 4, 2007 6:37am Nov 4, 2007 6:37am
Chart #2
Summary

This is the big - big picture of the GJ.

I ran a Fibo Ext from A 257.93 to point B 129.32 back up to the HIGH of all times 572.06.

From these three points of reference the 100% Fibo Ext is at 342.99 and the 161.8% is at 202.58 which is considered my median range of the High and Low.

I placed the HIGH and LOW equally distanced from the Median price at 202.58 and from there I can start to micro manage the charts and eliminate the extreme highs from recent years which really are out of proportion to our market today.

So now that I have reduced the market ranges into more of a realistic area, I will begin to summarize the movement from these points of reference leaving out the extreme levels of old.

On this chart also is a Fibo from the High at 235.84 to the Low at 129.32, we can see the high at 241.06 on AUG 1998 was at the exact 76.4% which held and send the price back down to a low on SEP 2000 at 148.19, but price did not touch the extreme low of 129.32.

This double bottom test that failed showed that the move down was complete, and that the move upwards was now in progress.

Then from SEP 2000 price has continually moved upwards again to test the High of 241.06 which was breached on the Monthly Candle on JAN 2007 with a high of 241.50.

Then on FEB/MAR/APR price remains below the 241.06 line with MAY coming back up to test this TOP once again.

In June of this year price soars with good strength from the recent retracement of the previous few months that found the 61.8% fibo for support to push price above this historical high at 241.06.

July finds the open price at 247.11 - 605 pips higher then the Resistance, but just when everything seemed on the up and up, we get hit with some US Economy Bad News that sends the GJ into a downward Spiral for two months straight.

On the July and August Months, price drops from it's perch at 251.07 and plummets to a low of 219.30 to find the support of the 61.8% Fibo.

The US FED comes out with an emergency Rate Increase, and the monthly candle in August is saved by the ploy of Economists, and we see the next two months SEP/OCT rise back up to come just under the 241.06 on the OCT close.

Chart #3 will break this down even more.

to be continued.......

Click on chart to enlarge
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly GJ #2.jpg Size: 77 KB
  • #13,935
  • Nov 4, 2007 6:45am Nov 4, 2007 6:45am
Chart #3
Summary

This is a closer view of the levels posted in Chart #2

The three circles show the Highs and Lows.

The large rectangle area is the year in 61.8% fibo level which is breached on AUG 2006, and price never closed below this since then.

Click on chart to enlarge.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly GJ #3.jpg Size: 73 KB
  • #13,936
  • Nov 4, 2007 6:47am Nov 4, 2007 6:47am
Quoting Wolf.
Thanks Zoheir.

I should have checked myself, just being lazy on a Sunday morning.


Edit: Thank you too Monarch .
Yea, I should be asleep, it's Sunday 4:45am here, the time changed back 1 hour, and I actually went to bed at 8:30 pm, and being a trader, I was awake at 2am and was not able too sleep anymore.

So I decided I would add to the thread some analysis, and to think, I don't even trade the GJ personally, but I watch it's every move because I trade the EJ, and they are twin brothers. LOL
  • #13,937
  • Nov 4, 2007 7:26am Nov 4, 2007 7:26am
Quoting monarch
Chart #3
Summary

This is a closer view of the levels posted in Chart #2

The three circles show the Highs and Lows.

The large rectangle area is the year in 61.8% fibo level which is breached on AUG 2006, and price never closed below this since then.

Click on chart to enlarge.
Thank you for your analysis. Your last chart #3 opens up an interesting possibility of 202.58 target (50% fib), if the H&S on the wkly chart everybody has been observing lately finally forms and breaks the neck line. It looks that in such a case H&S and 50%fib targets coincide...
  • #13,938
  • Nov 4, 2007 7:30am Nov 4, 2007 7:30am
Chart #4
Summary

Okay, this is my last chart for today.

If I am cluttering the thread, just let me know.

This chart has the Fibo from the 286.10 down to 129.32 which shows Fibo levels at:

76.4 - 249.10
61.8 - 226.21
50% - 207.71

Also I have trend lines coming from highs and lows which reveal the breakouts above the Fibo Levels.

The Green Triangle shows the price where the high on MAR 2004 found resistance at the 50% fibo line.

Once Price breaks into the Green Triangle on AUG 2006 price remains in this upward trend and actually breaks above the lower trend line and extends into the upper portion of the Triangle.

From here price retraces into the lower portion of the Triangle on Aug 2007, and finds support to move back above the trend line and stays above the 61.8% level at the closing of the candle.

I expect the price to re-test the 76.4% Fibo Level at 249.10 once the price breaks back above the 241.06 and starts to show on the daily by closing above this key area.

Until we get a close above the 244.06 level which was the High from AUG 2007 candle, I will remain neutral, even though the past two months Candles are very Bullish in formation.

Remember, Price could come up to the top of AUG candle High, and find rejection and then move downward once again finding more support on the trend lines that cross in the Triangle areas.


Have a Great Sunday Folks.

Ken
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly GJ #4.jpg Size: 82 KB
  • #13,939
  • Nov 4, 2007 7:45am Nov 4, 2007 7:45am
Chart #5
Summary

Okay, I had to add one more chart, this is a Red Triangle inside the Green Triangle area.

I didn't want to give a BULLISH impression only, so this shows we could find some Resistance at the High of August candle close at 233.51 or the High of that candle at 244.06.

Like I said, I remain very neutral at this point, until we can show some strength above the very large BEARISH candle.

We could be heading for a very nice BULL run, or if were not careful, we could be loading our longs in the face of a very large move down to test the 226.21 61.8 area once again.

Until we get more confirmation, I will trade the 4HR or Daily.

Gotta go. See you all at market open.

ken
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly GJ #5.jpg Size: 67 KB
  • #13,940
  • Nov 4, 2007 11:16am Nov 4, 2007 11:16am
Monarch,
nice chart!
but, do u use them to direct your trades?
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