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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #2,241
  • Nov 2, 2007 4:27pm Nov 2, 2007 4:27pm
Funny timing Mo, what with Loonie having its strongest day in 2007 (U/C -169 pips). I've got the feathers ready, but that bucket of tar is too pricey.
  • #2,242
  • Nov 2, 2007 7:53pm Nov 2, 2007 7:53pm
Ok I think I am definitely seeing CONFIRMED signs of trend reversal here and below is my reasoning.

USD/CAD has been falling at a rate of about 1000 pips per month.

it is currently trading at 0.93, so in about nine months this pair will reach ZERO.

When it reach ZERO i think it will probably turn around and start to go UP instead of going DOWN.

My assumption of course is that USD/CAd will never go NEGATIVE. But then again i might be wrong. may be next year we will see USD/CAd trading at

-273 or something (which is absolute ZERO in lord kelvin scale of tempertures when molecular motion stops).
  • #2,243
  • Nov 3, 2007 5:38am Nov 3, 2007 5:38am
Quoting amylase
Ok I think I am definitely seeing CONFIRMED signs of trend reversal here and below is my reasoning.

USD/CAD has been falling at a rate of about 1000 pips per month.

it is currently trading at 0.93, so in about nine months this pair will reach ZERO.

When it reach ZERO i think it will probably turn around and start to go UP instead of going DOWN.

My assumption of course is that USD/CAd will never go NEGATIVE. But then again i might be wrong. may be next year we will see USD/CAd trading at

-273 or something (which is absolute ZERO in lord kelvin scale of tempertures when molecular motion stops).
A very catching causal thread there!!

Thanks a lot!
Gnat
  • #2,244
  • Nov 3, 2007 6:07am Nov 3, 2007 6:07am
Quoting amylase
Ok I think I am definitely seeing CONFIRMED signs of trend reversal here and below is my reasoning.

USD/CAD has been falling at a rate of about 1000 pips per month.

it is currently trading at 0.93, so in about nine months this pair will reach ZERO.

When it reach ZERO i think it will probably turn around and start to go UP instead of going DOWN.

My assumption of course is that USD/CAd will never go NEGATIVE. But then again i might be wrong. may be next year we will see USD/CAd trading at

-273 or something (which is absolute ZERO in lord kelvin scale of tempertures when molecular motion stops).
Nonsense, the dollar is negative against the GU right NOW - if you hit me with a dollar bill you also are legally bound to give me 2 pounds sterling to make up for the tragedy. I don't know why this is so hard to grasp, seems pretty simple to me. I mean, how would you like it if I gave YOU a dollar? Doesn't seem so hot now does it? My mom always told me to treat others as I would treat my other self, hence my becoming schizophrenic. But that is another thing. Good luck.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #2,245
  • Nov 3, 2007 6:24am Nov 3, 2007 6:24am
I think it's freefall to 0.9000 at least. Remember a few months back when I said it would break parity??????? what a great trend.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #2,246
  • Nov 3, 2007 8:16am Nov 3, 2007 8:16am
Anyone with knowledge of prior Commitment of Traders reports offer their observations on this?
I remember one of the daily fx posts saying that the COT USD/cad shorts were oversold a week a ago but with a record number, I didn't take that as a reversal but as a confirmation of further downside because of the increase in open interest.
Is this a short on the CAD, a reversal sign on usd/cad? Or a sell on the USD/CAD?

So the up day, Nov 1, was the 300+ down day on the DJIA after oil went to $96. and the USD/CAD turned around the next day to around 93. stockcharts.com has oil projected to 109 on their point and figure projections, but that won't happen without a strong American equity market?
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  • #2,247
  • Nov 3, 2007 9:07pm Nov 3, 2007 9:07pm
Nice channel on the monthly chart! he he

My interpretation of recent price action in the Usd/Cad is the fact that the greatest amount of support here is at the .900 round number or the retest of the bottom channel. Given the angle of this channel, extremely downward in depth and formation, an extraordinary amount of selling is required to reach this key support level. This is because the more price action stagnates the further price action moves from the bottom channel. This could be an explanation for the rapid sell-off we have just recently seen. I would be an incremental buyer in this pair if price action bounces off of this bottom channel. I would also have sell stops below this channel.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #2,248
  • Nov 4, 2007 1:37pm Nov 4, 2007 1:37pm
uSD/CAD WILL NO LONGER BE A PAIR AGAIN.Till next year dont expect a trend reversal. I'm taking a long,oh sorry,longer trend trade frm here. Whenu see a xmas bonus like this dont ignore it. Later.
.
  • #2,249
  • Nov 4, 2007 1:51pm Nov 4, 2007 1:51pm
it is time to buy usd/cad. but do it slowly.
  • #2,250
  • Nov 5, 2007 8:08am Nov 5, 2007 8:08am
Quoting mry2001
it is time to buy usd/cad. but do it slowly.
Nooooooooooooooooooooo:surprised

look to the Oil and look again
  • #2,251
  • Nov 5, 2007 8:35am Nov 5, 2007 8:35am
For CAD to reverse....it would be like shifting US and Canada up and down....looking at the fundamentals trend reversal is "IMPOSSIBLE" but yeah we could have some "SPIKE" and "SHAKE UPS"...but the trend will remain down
  • #2,252
  • Nov 5, 2007 8:42am Nov 5, 2007 8:42am
Quoting mry2001
it is time to buy usd/cad. but do it slowly.
yes slowwwwwwwly


it appear on the chart, very clear

guys, it's time to buy UCAD
  • #2,253
  • Nov 5, 2007 8:53am Nov 5, 2007 8:53am
Quoting mry2001
it is time to buy usd/cad. but do it slowly.
You reckon? what's bullish about the following chart?
Attached Image
  • #2,254
  • Nov 5, 2007 7:50pm Nov 5, 2007 7:50pm
Quoting MoForce


you know what.... I'm seeing early signs of a trend reversal... it's still far from anything really so nothing confirmed as of yet
Well U/Cad is sitting on a MAJOR SUPPORT level at 0.9330.... so this will be interesting....
  • #2,255
  • Nov 5, 2007 8:35pm Nov 5, 2007 8:35pm
Quoting MoForce
Well U/Cad is sitting on a MAJOR SUPPORT level at 0.9330.... so this will be interesting....
USD/Cad

i remember this pair


kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk
  • #2,256
  • Nov 6, 2007 2:11am Nov 6, 2007 2:11am
Quoting mry2001
it is time to buy usd/cad. but do it slowly.
sorry but you will lose money
When I buy it, it moves down. When I sell it, it moves up.
  • #2,257
  • Nov 6, 2007 2:12am Nov 6, 2007 2:12am
Quoting yahte
USD/Cad

i remember this pair


kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk


it is now 0.9280
When I buy it, it moves down. When I sell it, it moves up.
  • #2,258
  • Nov 6, 2007 2:56am Nov 6, 2007 2:56am
Quoting pujolshomerun
it is now 0.9280


I told u u will lose with USD/CAD

leave it***************
  • #2,259
  • Nov 6, 2007 5:19am Nov 6, 2007 5:19am
This pair is a juggernaut; don't stand in its way or you will get crushed. I am trying to milk a few pips by going long and it's incredibly hard.

My prediction is that today it will even out numerically with AUD/USD, or even blow by it, barring any major risk aversion event.
  • #2,260
  • Nov 6, 2007 5:25am Nov 6, 2007 5:25am
I just started buying at 0.05/0.1 lot scale and in next 3 month I will accumulate 3 lots. It is interesting to see the outcome. In case my balance runs low, I will add fund.
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