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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,901
  • Oct 31, 2007 4:27pm Oct 31, 2007 4:27pm
Quoting alldra
still looks bullish..i would be very careful with any shorts at this point.
I agree - mom on the new daily candle is very bulish...
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  • #13,902
  • Oct 31, 2007 5:07pm Oct 31, 2007 5:07pm
There is a historical SR line sitting at 241.06 so I'll be building shorts in the 240s. I already have some entries in the 239.90 area. Target could be another 1000+ pips down.

See chart (though there's nothing really important there apart from the purple line sitting at 241.06 (top of the chart). The grey shaded area is also a buildup of resistance. There is a Gann timepoint on 1st/2nd Nov so that could see a reversal.

Z

PS. A break above 241.06 would have my entries reversed for a big move north. At the moment we are inside the brickwall so I'll remain short.
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  • #13,903
  • Oct 31, 2007 5:08pm Oct 31, 2007 5:08pm
Quoting Wolf.
As Bravado would say

Cha-Ching!

240 a lovely number

What has happened to Bravado anyway?

Well done wolf!
  • #13,904
  • Oct 31, 2007 7:08pm Oct 31, 2007 7:08pm
You guys and ladies were right, I took a short at 239.63 and just got stopped out.

Hope to re-enter on a clear sign of retrace,
  • #13,905
  • Nov 1, 2007 3:13am Nov 1, 2007 3:13am
We are now 1 hour into a 4 hour candle that has 2 time lines - one from the high and one from the low as shown. Also, we are in the target zone for the Bearish Butterfly shown - although its not an ideal pattern.

At the time of posting, the high is 240.42, 30 mins ago. UJ is leading up and cable is weaker and sitting on its 5m 200ema, a little above its DP at 2.0766

I would not be surprised to see the October 15 high at 240.66 tested in a Big Ben fakeout type of move....time will tell
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,906
  • Edited 4:34am Nov 1, 2007 4:24am | Edited 4:34am
Quoting Zoran
Well done wolf!

Thanks Zoran its nice when it works out .


Good Morning,

Have added to my existing longs at 240.22, still a little tentative as to the outcome will be ready to close at any signs of bearish movment.

Price is being compressed below the high of the F/L open, we need a break above, then this area will? become good support I will then set profitable stops relaxe a little.

Will hold my longs from Tuesday until I'm sure the trend is over as for target on my new trades I'm looking for 241 minimum. If it starts to move possibly 241.50 or just below, 241.47 is the high from January 23rd.

Edit: Not looking too good back down to the support at 240.15
  • #13,907
  • Nov 1, 2007 4:44am Nov 1, 2007 4:44am
Something like this perhaps
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  • #13,908
  • Nov 1, 2007 4:47am Nov 1, 2007 4:47am
Quoting auxesis
Something like this perhaps
That sure looks a nice target Auxesis.
  • #13,909
  • Nov 1, 2007 5:05am Nov 1, 2007 5:05am
Quoting auxesis
Something like this perhaps
Yes looks very interesting, but I have some strange feeling it will break during the current bullish move, but I don't know why, I have been wrong in the past
If you never lose, something is wrong...
  • #13,910
  • Edited 3:56pm Nov 1, 2007 7:38am | Edited 3:56pm
Quoting Wolf.
Thanks Zoran its nice when it works out .


Good Morning,

Have added to my existing longs at 240.22, still a little tentative as to the outcome will be ready to close at any signs of bearish movment.

Price is being compressed below the high of the F/L open, we need a break above, then this area will? become good support I will then set profitable stops relaxe a little.

Will hold my longs from Tuesday until I'm sure the trend is over as for target on my new trades I'm looking for 241 minimum. If it starts to move possibly 241.50 or just below, 241.47 is the high from January 23rd.

Edit: Not looking too good back down to the support at 240.15
A good morning so far, closed half of this morning position at 241.32 stop at 239.5 for the remaining half.

Price will hopefully find support around 239.6 also a rising t/l from this morning right here.

We will have to wait and see if this mornings high is strong resistance, could be being the high from January, the top of a rising channel on the 1H chart and close to the top on the 4H.

Edit: Stopped out...wanted to move my stop a bit lower but wasn't quick enough will watch for a reject off the t/l for a short now??
  • #13,911
  • Nov 1, 2007 10:18am Nov 1, 2007 10:18am
Couple of charts that may be of interest!

Notice on the line chart how price reversed at th 240 level, definatley a critical level although I think its significance is now reduced.

Next time it goes there will probabaly go straight through.
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  • #13,912
  • Nov 1, 2007 12:03pm Nov 1, 2007 12:03pm
Quoting auxesis
Something like this perhaps
good stuff, mate!
  • #13,913
  • Nov 1, 2007 12:44pm Nov 1, 2007 12:44pm
wolf, u r right 240 is very criticial for geppy in long term.

However, GBP is a bit over bullish right now. in fact some indicator shows a pullback is coming.
1. cable is recently very firmly correlated with US stock market. and DOW is very need the end of its long term bullish support line 13660.
2.Fed is very unlikly to cut the rate no more in middle term.

although, i am very comfortable with geppy stand over 240. nevertheless, watch out for a slight pull back.
  • #13,914
  • Nov 1, 2007 1:12pm Nov 1, 2007 1:12pm
Quoting winwise
wolf, u r right 240 is very criticial for geppy in long term.

However, GBP is a bit over bullish right now. in fact some indicator shows a pullback is coming.
1. cable is recently very firmly correlated with US stock market. and DOW is very need the end of its long term bullish support line 13660.
2.Fed is very unlikly to cut the rate no more in middle term.

although, i am very comfortable with geppy stand over 240. nevertheless, watch out for a slight pull back.
Hi Winwise,

It may be overbullish although I not sure there is such a situation.

Well I'm short at the moment 239.99 and 240.01 (240 still working) wasn't going to miss a low risk entry.

I'm waiting for it to have another push south trailing one pos closely the other at +10. Edit: stopped out +109 on first pos.

Cheers
  • #13,915
  • Nov 2, 2007 4:18am Nov 2, 2007 4:18am
Quoting Wolf.
Hi Winwise,

It may be overbullish although I not sure there is such a situation.

Well I'm short at the moment 239.99 and 240.01 (240 still working) wasn't going to miss a low risk entry.

I'm waiting for it to have another push south trailing one pos closely the other at +10. Edit: stopped out +109 on first pos.

Cheers
Good morning.

Winwise just read my reply to you and noticed it seemed a little curt, didn't mean to be (under the weather this week just a cold). I do know what you mean and on the face of it may look over bought and indeed may turn into a big fall. In which case everyone will say 'see it was way over bullish'.

Personally I do not give any creedence at all to being overbought/oversold,ie indicators that show this, despite the fact that people constantly try to find the very top and very bottom. I like to trade with the trend and hope it continues as long as possible, look at USDCAD. To me its just about S/R. (if you haven't already check out Soultraders thread)

This morning I reversed long at 238.92 closing my over night short for +108. Would have longed earlier after a bounce from a lower trend line but I was late up and it cost me.

Also we came near the bottom of the 1H channel and hit the mid point of the daily channel so until these are broken i see us still in an uptrend.

Above the daily pivot now so this should provide support and I have a TP on half at 239.92

Just my view.
  • #13,916
  • Nov 2, 2007 4:37am Nov 2, 2007 4:37am
Forgot the Chart!
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  • #13,917
  • Nov 2, 2007 6:36am Nov 2, 2007 6:36am
So far so good, see if the plan holds together today. Friday candles usually close towards the ends, so lets see if we get a good sustained drop throughout the day, or we are headed back to the top.
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  • #13,918
  • Nov 2, 2007 10:19am Nov 2, 2007 10:19am
Quoting Wolf.
Good morning.
This morning I reversed long at 238.92 closing my over night short for +108. Would have longed earlier after a bounce from a lower trend line but I was late up and it cost me.
.
good call, mate. i did a short and close at 238.63 as well.

i am just waiting geppy to touch a 241.36 region.... the fall will only after there.
  • #13,919
  • Nov 2, 2007 11:09am Nov 2, 2007 11:09am
Quoting auxesis
So far so good, see if the plan holds together today. Friday candles usually close towards the ends, so lets see if we get a good sustained drop throughout the day, or we are headed back to the top.
if it doesnt really break 23970, then, i be firmly follow a fall!
  • #13,920
  • Nov 2, 2007 1:03pm Nov 2, 2007 1:03pm
Quoting winwise
good call, mate. i did a short and close at 238.63 as well.

i am just waiting geppy to touch a 241.36 region.... the fall will only after there.
Thanks Winwise looks like you did OK as well.

Turned into a very good day for me I bought again at the declining t/l 238.58 so I had three positions going into the news, closed two just below S1 when the the trend line broke on the 1m chart at 240.10. Had hoped it would keep going towards 241 and beyond. Held onto the last position and took +10. Bought again at the same trend line at 238.41, still open will hold unless things start looking bearish.
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