Swing Trade Potentials: 1 to ? Weeks Duration. | Forex Factory

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Attachments: Swing Trade Potentials: 1 to ? Weeks Duration.
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Swing Trade Potentials: 1 to ? Weeks Duration.

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 1, 2007 10:51pm Nov 1, 2007 10:51pm
Seriously, 1KT group should be reasonably close to predicting where some Markets will be in the coming weeks.
This is by no means any reccommendation to Trade! Do that at your own risk.

Please do not post "I see xx.xxx." without reasons why

I'll Start.
GBP/USD @ 2.1430 within ~2-3 months {not allowing for Holiday Slowdown}.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...23&postcount=6
{500 Pips since this post.}

This Prediction is {was} based in a 3 part analysis.
1) Fib Extension a} Mid June '01. b}Late Dec '04. c}Early Dec '05.
2) Fib Time Ratio {BMc Trend Speed Calibration}
3) Channel from Mid May '06.

Any and all Serious thoughts on Market Targets Welcome.
  • #2
  • Edited 11:33pm Nov 1, 2007 11:21pm | Edited 11:33pm
Perfect Bemac. Should we create one for each majors?:

Attractive would mean 2.0650 and 2.0450 based on previous highs.

I would give the 2.0450 level, 150-200pips room to breathe before admitting that the trend has changed, near term.

Points to note :
Based on the weekly price its a bit worrying since the swings have been short and frequent. Noted Price/Indicator divergence for a small correction play.
  • #3
  • Nov 1, 2007 11:26pm Nov 1, 2007 11:26pm
Quoting jest1081
Perfect Bemac. Should we create one for each majors?:
Nah. Let's keep it tight in one thread.
Just remember to put the Pair you are discussing in Your Post Title
  • #4
  • Nov 2, 2007 12:20am Nov 2, 2007 12:20am
A little clarification please:

1) Fib extension - on my chart I get 61.8% @ 2.0673 which was damn close to July 24th swing high. But next important ext level 100% is @ 2.2915 ???
The other fib numbers I look for, external retracements 161.8% level is @ 2.1095 Can you explain where 2.1430 comes from.

2) Fib Time Ratios I know, but BMc Trend ..... I myself don't see any monthly cycles of importance 2-3 months hence and if anything a couple of weekly high cycles are between next week and the end of Nov?

3) I see Channel but without knowing when price might reach a high how can one know whether it will be at a point when it approachs the upper part of the channel.
  • #5
  • Nov 2, 2007 12:48am Nov 2, 2007 12:48am
Here is what I have been watching on the WEEKLY GBP/USD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP_USD @ 2.14.PNG Size: 40 KB
  • #6
  • Nov 2, 2007 8:39am Nov 2, 2007 8:39am
Quoting SunTrader
A little clarification please:

1) Fib extension - on my chart I get 61.8% @ 2.0673 which was damn close to July 24th swing high. But next important ext level 100% is @ 2.2915 ???
The other fib numbers I look for, external retracements 161.8% level is @ 2.1095 Can you explain where 2.1430 comes from.
76.4%

Quoting SunTrader
2) Fib Time Ratios I know, but BMc Trend ..... I myself don't see any monthly cycles of importance 2-3 months hence and if anything a couple of weekly high cycles are between next week and the end of Nov?
This measures the Volatility/Duration of the Initial Trend then breaks that period int Fib Portions.ie. If the Inital Trend lasted 100 Bars the the 23% Speed Ball will appear 23 Bars after the third Point in the Fib Extension. It is Plotted @ the Intersection of 23% Price Movement & 23% Movement in Time. Gives evidence of Acceleration/Decelaration.

Quoting SunTrader
3) I see Channel but without knowing when price might reach a high how can one know whether it will be at a point when it approachs the upper part of the channel.
See above.
  • #7
  • Nov 9, 2007 7:06am Nov 9, 2007 7:06am
I currently see the next possible victim being NZD, .7200 by year's end. It should keep going lower through next year.

I could be wrong. Or, I could become the next Jacko....only different.

I will be watching this pair with great interest.

Clockwork
  • #8
  • Last Post: Nov 22, 2007 4:05am Nov 22, 2007 4:05am
based on last mid august spike, lets start selling, if it doesn't goes down after a week, i may close it all
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