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Steviet's Live Trades!

  • #2,881
  • Oct 30, 2007 5:13pm Oct 30, 2007 5:13pm
Quoting bpatto
I would be more than happy to set a monthly target for you. Obviously I would need to do some Quantative Risk Management first.

How many shorts do you still have outstanding and at what levels would they be stopped out? ie. 1 @ 242.36, 2 @ 240.58, etc.

As you said, compounding does take a little of the pain out of them. That said you would have to remember that if you have a few of them hit at once and reduce your account balance by say 40%, then if you following Money Management of 1 % then your trades from that day forward would be at .06% risk of the original balance.

Food for thought.
Yup that's very true - first stop out would be at the high 241's. And yes, a big blow would be to have a few hit in a short period of time.

I'll keep doing what I'm doing and see where we are at the end of Nov, Dec etc and then I'll have some real live data under my belt.

After a good few months I'll be able to see whether this month trading the method was exceptional, typical, or dare I say it disappointing LOL.

Thanks for the input - believe me I'm forever calculating all possible scenarios and will make any adjustments I feel necessary.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #2,882
  • Oct 30, 2007 5:14pm Oct 30, 2007 5:14pm
Maybe things will turn your way tomorrow... price seems bouncing off the 200 ema today, and there is also the line of the triangle to save you too... if it goes past there... then I don't know if I can help you !!!

Quoting steviet
GBPJPY short 237.10 closed 237.00 (+10)

October pips +4090
Ac bal increase Oct +40.70%
Consecutive profitable trades 395

Well as NY closes, the price has gone against my open positions today. I've still managed to grab 100 pips today from somewhere, basically taking advantage of what price is doing NOW and not moping about my open trades.

Tomorrow, the market may reverse and I may pick up hundreds of pips - maybe it won't. The market does what the market does and my job is to take what I can when I can out of it.

If it does reverse tomorrow, will I consider myself lucky? A little, but there are days when you are lucky and days you are unlucky. What I must do is treat each situation the same and just take advantage of the opportunities presented.

Am I waffling again?

Kind Regards
Steve
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,883
  • Oct 30, 2007 5:22pm Oct 30, 2007 5:22pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Maybe things will turn your way tomorrow... price seems bouncing off the 200 ema today, and there is also the line of the triangle to save you too... if it goes past there... then I don't know if I can help you !!!
Hey Tiki

Well, tomorrow I'm in meetings all day (yawn) so won't be able to get to the pc at lunchtime. That maybe a good thing lol.

I'm pretty confident (famous last words) that we won't get above 240 on this move - if we do, we do and I reassess what I'm doing. Also, I may need to borrow your 'Trading Infractions' tag - heck we could form a club

US interest rate decision tomorrow and NFP Friday should shake things up a bit hehe

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #2,884
  • Oct 31, 2007 1:44am Oct 31, 2007 1:44am
Trade update on position closed last night...

GBPJPY short 237.33 closed 237.23 (+10)

Oct pips +4100
Ac Bal Increase Oct +40.82%
Consecutive profitable trades 396

Steve
  • #2,885
  • Oct 31, 2007 10:19am Oct 31, 2007 10:19am
would it be horribly rude to ask you what your current system(s) rules are now? im reading through steves posts with great interest, but for the sake of a needle in a haystack id thought id ask.

im at about page 73 of the thread, but skipped to the ending and was like wow, you really seemed to have changed what you are doing. Though I guess youve officially been in the water for about a year now eh? congrads.

I like your earlier logic of using like 5 pairs, albeit correlated. Rather than risk 1 dollar pips on one chart, 0.20 cent pips on 5 charts seems alot safer. 0.10 cent pips on 10 charts even moreso. Perhaps this is bad logic idk.

right now I just finished reading your first draw down that first February, my heart broke right along with you! felt like I was there!
(at least ill say I know the feeling, I would have quit the system/lacked your discipline)
The only stupid question is the one not asked
  • #2,886
  • Edited 3:12pm Oct 31, 2007 2:30pm | Edited 3:12pm
OK, today has not been a great day - I really should've started taking longs at 236 as I said I would. Should'ves don't count unfortunately lol.

Today marks the end of the year and I've been overall profitable. Although I've had a great last six weeks or so, I'm still not happy with the method long term so I'm taking a while away from the journal to test a few things out.

40% in a month is good but I have my doubts if it's sustainable at the level of risk I'm taking per trade. Unrealised drawdowns are too high if the market continues to go against you, even if you can pick up a hundred pips plus a day to compensate.

The method has merit and I think I'll keep going but at a vastly reduced risk per trade. If my account balance was large enough I'd probably go down to as low as 0.1% per trade. This would have made this month a 4% month but on a seven figure account size that's still some serious money.

It's been a fantastic year and I have many many people to thank - Kris (turbokaos), Mr Trend, Iso, Pete (Northpro), Seeking Light, Mike (mbqb11), Karmo, Scott (smjones) & many many others for their advice & encouragement throughout the year.

I need some time out to think about things and maybe consider my future. I'd love to step right out of the 9-5 and straight into forex but things are never that simple of course.

I WILL be back with updates from time to time - I think now is a good time to reflect on the year and look forward to the next. The journal is incredibly hard to keep up and will be cool to sit back and watch for a while.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #2,887
  • Oct 31, 2007 3:32pm Oct 31, 2007 3:32pm
Well done stevie and hope to see you back soon. If you've noticed I went quiet on mine too after realizing it's taking up way too much time. Good luck!
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #2,888
  • Oct 31, 2007 3:37pm Oct 31, 2007 3:37pm
Quoting Plutonite
Well done stevie and hope to see you back soon. If you've noticed I went quiet on mine too after realizing it's taking up way too much time. Good luck!
Cheers bud!

I knew I missed someone lol - thanks
  • #2,889
  • Oct 31, 2007 4:10pm Oct 31, 2007 4:10pm
Steve,

It's been a great year for you, I commend you for delivering us your trades for the year as you promised...wow, what a ride...Your a total trading stud! Keep up the hard work and reflection, I for one know you'll turn a good system into an amazing one. Great work my friend.


Cheers,
Pete
  • #2,890
  • Oct 31, 2007 4:15pm Oct 31, 2007 4:15pm
If only every journal on FF ended in this fashion. Cheers, mate.
Mr. Trend
  • #2,891
  • Oct 31, 2007 4:31pm Oct 31, 2007 4:31pm
Steve you are a helluva good guy and I will miss reading your journal each day. Keep in touch and look forward to hearing about your continued successes!
  • #2,892
  • Oct 31, 2007 5:17pm Oct 31, 2007 5:17pm
Steviet,
I have been following you post since middle Dec06, I have read every single one of them. I was mostly lurking in the background.
The reason for my post is TO THANK YOU FROM THE BOTTOM OF MY HEART, with out you knowing you taught me something very valueble and that is find your own system play with it and BELIEVE IN YOUR SELF.
Steve thank you very very much.
i must say the Gbp/Jpy has been very kind to me.
Regards & best wishes
Carl
  • #2,893
  • Oct 31, 2007 5:20pm Oct 31, 2007 5:20pm
thanks for your kind words all and Carl, that is fantastic that the thread has inspired you to find your way

steve
  • #2,894
  • Oct 31, 2007 8:58pm Oct 31, 2007 8:58pm
Steve,

Taking a break a break is probably a good idea. This way you don't get burnt out.

Don't worry guys you know he will be back he probably siting in his underwear scalping away as I post this, he's got the FX Bug.
  • #2,895
  • Oct 31, 2007 9:56pm Oct 31, 2007 9:56pm
Hi Steviet

Something you may want to consider:

I noticed that throughout this journey you went from one extreme to the opposite extreme.

At first you operated out of a longer term system with many small losses and a few big winners. You used to get killed in chop and decided to change.

Now you seem to have shifted to a much shorter-term system with many many tiny winners and a huge downside risk if some of your stops get hit at the same time.

Make sure to utilize this time off to settle somewhere in the middle.

Remember that it's not necessary to win all the time, and I somewhat have the feeling that you like that. You wouldn't keep the "consecutive winning trades" count on your signature all the time if it was otherwise.

Perhaps dropping your win% to something like 70% with much lower risk may turn out to be a lot better in terms of risk management.

I also believe that you should research into your trades and let some of those winners ride. Have you considered scaling out of positions?

What really sucks about collecting small profits on a frequent basis is that you don't take advantage of the big moves the market can give you.

I know many times you'll get stopped out or your trailing stop will get hit...but keep in mind that having losers that are 100 times bigger than your winners is a losing proposition in the long run.

You may have 5-6 consecutive losers and that would be a 5-6K-pip drawdown. It just makes no sense to me.

I am gonna let you go now as I am sure you got lots of work to do during this break from your journal.

I am sure you'll come up with a solution to your worries.

Bye for now.
  • #2,896
  • Nov 1, 2007 1:25pm Nov 1, 2007 1:25pm
i agree with many of IS's comments. you've earned a well deserved break from trading and journal updating. so recharge your batteries and come back refreshed when you're ready to start up again.
  • #2,897
  • Nov 1, 2007 3:07pm Nov 1, 2007 3:07pm
Hi Stevie,
been lurking reading your journal for awhile - thanks for sharing your thoughts, emotions and ideas with all of us.
enjoy your break and good luck in any future endeavors you choose to take!!!!
  • #2,898
  • Nov 1, 2007 3:39pm Nov 1, 2007 3:39pm
Quoting steviet
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif The end.....for now

Even though, I'm aiming a bit higher than 10ps... it was interesting experience reading your journal... I know first hand, it was tough to trade and write down your trades here with 'dozen' of eyes watching your every step...

Looking forward to hear... or read about you one day, Steve..!
  • #2,899
  • Nov 1, 2007 5:28pm Nov 1, 2007 5:28pm
Steviet, would it be possible for you to write here a short summary of what is your trading system? I know, I know, absolutely I know this is a very weird request. Here is your journal, everything is clear and extensively described, and asking what I'm asking is typical of lazy newbies that don't want to do their work. So I would abosolutely not be annoyed if you won't accept my request. In fact I think you should be accept to write this summary only and only if it could have some value for you. You wrote that a year is passed, and a lot of things evolved. If you find it could be usefull to yourself to make a summary of your system and it's evolution during this year, I think a lot of new members of this forum would be very happy to read, otherwise thank you anyway and forgive this very impudent request, if you can.
.Ubeee.
  • #2,900
  • Nov 1, 2007 7:19pm Nov 1, 2007 7:19pm
hey steve

i wanna congratulate you on a mission accomplished. You kept a journal for a year for everyone to see and we saw how you grew into a trader. I have always kept in touch with this thread . Ever since when you were psyched about your trades getting over 1000 pips, to when you were doubting yourself and had to change few things (even dropping usdcad just before it decided to drop like a meteor) to now where you turned around completely and scalping the market like a mad trader. I think you started your journal a month after i did last year?? man that seems a long time ago :-)

Good luck to your time off! remember the market befriends the calculating and sensible ones...
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