When will we see the next Carry Unwind? | Forex Factory

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When will we see the next Carry Unwind?

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 31, 2007 4:49pm Oct 31, 2007 4:49pm
Looks like Eur/Jpy, Chf/Jpy are getting a little toppy again. But other yen crosses could go up a little more before all time highs. Will we see some small unwinds soon? Or wait for the big one in the first quarter of next year?
  • #2
  • Oct 31, 2007 7:21pm Oct 31, 2007 7:21pm
Nobody really knows. The dow is near record highs, so anything is possible
  • #3
  • Oct 31, 2007 7:32pm Oct 31, 2007 7:32pm
USD/JPY is "only" at 115.40 and slowly rising. If the dollar continues to regain strength against the yen, while losing strength against the rest of the world, the foreign yen crosses may have a good deal of appreciation left. GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY are still well off their July highs by 1000 pips.
  • #4
  • Oct 31, 2007 7:42pm Oct 31, 2007 7:42pm
Quoting Trader KGB
USD/JPY is "only" at 115.40 and slowly rising. If the dollar continues to regain strength against the yen, while losing strength against the rest of the world, the foreign yen crosses may have a good deal of appreciation left. GBP/JPY and NZD/JPY are still well off their July highs by 1000 pips.
It seems to me the other crosses are somewhat decoupling from the UJ, no?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5
  • Oct 31, 2007 8:11pm Oct 31, 2007 8:11pm
Never again. This is the new economy, it only goes up!
  • #6
  • Last Post: Oct 31, 2007 8:16pm Oct 31, 2007 8:16pm
Quoting DutchTrader
It seems to me the other crosses are somewhat decoupling from the UJ, no?
Well, it depends on your definition of "decouple". Since we know that every yen cross is the product of the major * UJ, the yen crosses are never literally decoupled from UJ.

In terms of % returns, then yes, they are far decoupled from UJ, because the former part of the cross equation (the majors) are outperforming the dollar much more than the dollar is outperforming against the yen (technically it's underperforming on a YTD basis).
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