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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #45,941
  • Oct 30, 2007 5:18pm Oct 30, 2007 5:18pm
Oh right.... and another piece of important information....

Last USD interest rate announcement where there was a .5% cut... well that resulted in a 600 pip rise in G/J.... we may see a repeat with this one... especially if it comes out at 4.25% so prepare to long when the moment is right... we could see 242 unless JPY's IR comes out with some change
  • #45,942
  • Oct 30, 2007 5:23pm Oct 30, 2007 5:23pm
Quoting MoForce
Oh right.... and another piece of important information....

Last USD interest rate announcement where there was a .5% cut... well that resulted in a 600 pip rise in G/J.... we may see a repeat with this one... especially if it comes out at 4.25% so prepare to long when the moment is right... we could see 242 unless JPY's IR comes out with some change
Hey Mark,how do you thing the pair will react tommorow after the interest announcment?
  • #45,943
  • Oct 30, 2007 5:53pm Oct 30, 2007 5:53pm
Ok a quick rundown on the possibilities tomorrow.
1. If you look to the past you shall see that we had consecutive 50bp rate cuts in the past, 1998 same time I believe. At that point we had a constuction slow down, but not a complete real estate meltdown. Those cuts prevented a deep long ressesion, but the times had changed. Unfortunatelly the reasoning behind the cuts hadn't. Bernanke is a follower of those 'desicive measures" system.
2. 25bp cut is allready priced in.
3. The activity in the Euro and Pound registering multidecades highsand staying there are telling me one thing and one thing only. The news of the cut (as it has before, there is evidence to support this claim) has been leaked, otherwise, common sense and past history suggest that the market would have to retace somewhat on profit taking, just to stay safe ahead of the news, no they are not retracing which means someone is buying right now.
4. These are wild times, we are at a major turning point on the Dow and the start of the Grand Bearish Super cycle, don't be surprised to see 7000 by next september, october.
5. All great turning points are preceded by very high volatility.
6. unfortunatelly can't post a chart, (doesn't want to upload) but if you look at the major swing highs and lows on th guppy, you will see that we are in a great wedge, now usually the wedge signifies a continuation of the trend and sinse the main trend is still to the upside, if we have a sustained break 239.00 area and manage to close tomorrow above that level, we are allready very close, with the 50bp cut it's inevitable, our price objective is very easily measured by measuring the width of the wedge from the lowest point to the upper trendline and then projecting that distance into the future from the breaking point. This sounds extremely far fetched ( I, myself was building shorts all the way from the 140 area down considering the possible H&S formation) but at this point in time I believe this is a real possibility. INMO this scenario is a lot more likely than any other right now. Mr Bernanke, doesn't care for a strong dollar, he cares for "saving" the US economy, unfortunatelly if this cut materialeses tomorrow it would be a day to remember, doom and gloom do not even begin to describe the affects. Now getting back to this scenario, of the cut and exubarance of the market, we can expect the real turning point to be postponed after christmas, I would say around the begining of spring next year.
Watch the 239 level tomorrow, I might be wrong but the charts never are.
  • #45,944
  • Oct 30, 2007 6:34pm Oct 30, 2007 6:34pm
guys i think its gonna be rough night for me coz i v been short from 235.30 so what do u think should i close my open trades or wait to see what will happen tomorrow thank u for sharing with me
  • #45,945
  • Oct 30, 2007 6:34pm Oct 30, 2007 6:34pm
Quoting gene22
Ok a quick rundown on the possibilities tomorrow.
1. If you look to the past you shall see that we had consecutive 50bp rate cuts in the past, 1998 same time I believe. At that point we had a constuction slow down, but not a complete real estate meltdown. Those cuts prevented a deep long ressesion, but the times had changed. Unfortunatelly the reasoning behind the cuts hadn't. Bernanke is a follower of those 'desicive measures" system.
2. 25bp cut is allready priced in.
3. The activity in the Euro and Pound registering multidecades highsand staying there are telling me one thing and one thing only. The news of the cut (as it has before, there is evidence to support this claim) has been leaked, otherwise, common sense and past history suggest that the market would have to retace somewhat on profit taking, just to stay safe ahead of the news, no they are not retracing which means someone is buying right now.
4. These are wild times, we are at a major turning point on the Dow and the start of the Grand Bearish Super cycle, don't be surprised to see 7000 by next september, october.
5. All great turning points are preceded by very high volatility.
6. unfortunatelly can't post a chart, (doesn't want to upload) but if you look at the major swing highs and lows on th guppy, you will see that we are in a great wedge, now usually the wedge signifies a continuation of the trend and sinse the main trend is still to the upside, if we have a sustained break 239.00 area and manage to close tomorrow above that level, we are allready very close, with the 50bp cut it's inevitable, our price objective is very easily measured by measuring the width of the wedge from the lowest point to the upper trendline and then projecting that distance into the future from the breaking point. This sounds extremely far fetched ( I, myself was building shorts all the way from the 140 area down considering the possible H&S formation) but at this point in time I believe this is a real possibility. INMO this scenario is a lot more likely than any other right now. Mr Bernanke, doesn't care for a strong dollar, he cares for "saving" the US economy, unfortunatelly if this cut materialeses tomorrow it would be a day to remember, doom and gloom do not even begin to describe the affects. Now getting back to this scenario, of the cut and exubarance of the market, we can expect the real turning point to be postponed after christmas, I would say around the begining of spring next year.
Watch the 239 level tomorrow, I might be wrong but the charts never are.

Nice evaluation. I agree that big actions by the fed could push the market collapse off until next year, but that is as far as it goes.
  • #45,946
  • Oct 30, 2007 6:34pm Oct 30, 2007 6:34pm
One question... Thanx to auslanco i used to have my american session starting at 8 EST, eurpoean at 3EST and asian at 19EST...
now the time zones are messed up and i wonder what to use as daily pivots for specific sessions???

Since EST at the moment i am typing this is 19.30 and given the eurpean session opens 7.30 mins later, than will we use 3EST as the european daily pivot? also the american session will open 12 hours and 30 mins later so it would be 8est

however since japan does not observe daylight savings at all would the asian daily pivot be 20EST?

i am a mess...
  • #45,947
  • Oct 30, 2007 6:35pm Oct 30, 2007 6:35pm
What is going on with this thing it just doesn't want to come down!
  • #45,948
  • Oct 30, 2007 6:40pm Oct 30, 2007 6:40pm
Quoting anthonykay
guys i think its gonna be rough night for me coz i v been short from 235.30 so what do u think should i close my open trades or wait to see what will happen tomorrow thank u for sharing with me
Anthony I am a newbie so dont take this the wrong way, but only leave your short open if you are prepared to lose more money. You are the only person that you have to justify anything to at the end of the day, and quite frankly if you started the trade without a stop loss, then be extra careful to not allow emotion to direct your trade from here on out.
  • #45,949
  • Oct 30, 2007 6:42pm Oct 30, 2007 6:42pm
Quoting anthonykay
guys i think its gonna be rough night for me coz i v been short from 235.30 so what do u think should i close my open trades or wait to see what will happen tomorrow thank u for sharing with me
the chances of G/J going up is very high right now, but instead of closing that position try and hedge... so like if u see an opportunity to go long do it in such a way that u can regain ur losses from ur short (opening a position with a slightly higher lot amount than ur short). After G/J reaches it's peak you can close the long and wait for the retracement and you should be in profit. I strongly suggest you decide on your own whether or not to go long and if u want to take the risk of holding ur short. The markets can move in any direction... even crash.... so it's all up to you
  • #45,950
  • Oct 30, 2007 6:43pm Oct 30, 2007 6:43pm
Quoting anthonykay
guys i think its gonna be rough night for me coz i v been short from 235.30 so what do u think should i close my open trades or wait to see what will happen tomorrow thank u for sharing with me
How much did you leverage? I hope that you didn't utilize more than 2-3% of you account.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #45,951
  • Oct 30, 2007 6:45pm Oct 30, 2007 6:45pm
Quoting vinesh2
What is going on with this thing it just doesn't want to come down!
Tokyo isn't open yet
  • #45,952
  • Edited 7:04pm Oct 30, 2007 6:52pm | Edited 7:04pm
Quoting vinesh2
What is going on with this thing it just doesn't want
to come down!
Take a dose of Karmo's patience tablets.
  • #45,953
  • Oct 30, 2007 6:53pm Oct 30, 2007 6:53pm
Karmo, a question, please.

Please see the attached pic, my broker update at Frankfurt 00:00 am(7 pm, EST).

How do you interpret the momentums?
My guess is that GJ may firstly go down a little (since light blue MTM(1) down), but then come back and range (since blue MTM(10) flat). The gray MTM(14) slightly up, giving no much info tho.

What do you say? thanks in advance, bro.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1031_d.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #45,954
  • Oct 30, 2007 6:54pm Oct 30, 2007 6:54pm
thank u guys for sharing my concern
  • #45,955
  • Oct 30, 2007 7:05pm Oct 30, 2007 7:05pm
Quoting anthonykay
guys i think its gonna be rough night for me coz i v been short from 235.30 so what do u think should i close my open trades or wait to see what will happen tomorrow thank u for sharing with me

Are you using a protective stop loss?
  • #45,956
  • Oct 30, 2007 7:13pm Oct 30, 2007 7:13pm
Thank you Markam, yes next year, is as far as it could go. The only reason I'm mad is because we are about to have a text book perfect WEEKLY H&S possible formation fail. I closed 90% of my shorts, still hanging by the hope(should know better after 13 years) that 238.80-239.45 area will be a good area to reenter and start building down again. An unbiased view should of called for a long at 235.50(can't get a cleaner signal) and start the ride up. But being stuborn and biased to the downside I happen to be behind the curve this time. Oh well if not 2000 pips down then 2000 pips up, even better, I'll be rolling in interest all the way through next year. Yes cut the rates you Mo__n, lets see how bad this can really get, I allready sold everything in the beginning og the year and moved from a beutifull Los Angeles to a beautifull, but cold, Sankt-Petersburg, Russia that is. Talking to my friends back at home, still can't make them see the light, that they could still get out of their overpriced multimillion dollar houses, oh well, let it crash I'll buy a couple of nice vacation houses on the coast for a fraction of what they were a year ago in two or so years when the panic really kicks in.

Let's see that anouncement Mr. Bernanke ^&*&^%, I can almost smell the excitement
  • #45,957
  • Oct 30, 2007 7:15pm Oct 30, 2007 7:15pm
yes when i opened the trade i put it sl but after i saw the price going up i remove the sl i was waiting for the retracement but its seems there is no retracement
  • #45,958
  • Oct 30, 2007 7:21pm Oct 30, 2007 7:21pm
Quoting anthonykay
yes when i opened the trade i put it sl but after i saw the price going up i remove the sl i was waiting for the retracement but its seems there is no retracement
mebe u hade too much patience pills.. dont cling on to hope my friend, just follow your charts..
  • #45,959
  • Oct 30, 2007 7:28pm Oct 30, 2007 7:28pm
Quoting anthonykay
yes when i opened the trade i put it sl but after i saw the price going up i remove the sl i was waiting for the retracement but its seems there is no retracement
Tell me what leverage you used on your account, I'm assuming it's real money not demo, and your entry price and I'll give you 2 possible scenarios, you make a decision.
  • #45,960
  • Oct 30, 2007 7:28pm Oct 30, 2007 7:28pm
Quoting gene22
Thank you Markam, yes next year, is as far as it could go. The only reason I'm mad is because we are about to have a text book perfect WEEKLY H&S possible formation fail. I closed 90% of my shorts, still hanging by the hope(should know better after 13 years) that 238.80-239.45 area will be a good area to reenter and start building down again. An unbiased view should of called for a long at 235.50(can't get a cleaner signal) and start the ride up. But being stuborn and biased to the downside I happen to be behind the curve this time. Oh well if not 2000 pips down then 2000 pips up, even better, I'll be rolling in interest all the way through next year. Yes cut the rates you Mo__n, lets see how bad this can really get, I allready sold everything in the beginning og the year and moved from a beutifull Los Angeles to a beautifull, but cold, Sankt-Petersburg, Russia that is. Talking to my friends back at home, still can't make them see the light, that they could still get out of their overpriced multimillion dollar houses, oh well, let it crash I'll buy a couple of nice vacation houses on the coast for a fraction of what they were a year ago in two or so years when the panic really kicks in.

Let's see that anouncement Mr. Bernanke ^&*&^%, I can almost smell the excitement
I've been reading around various sources and although the consensus is most definitely a .25% drop, some are suggesting that rates may be left unchanged, so do not rule it out entirely. Very few rate the chances of a 0.5% reduction as realistic.
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