Daily GBP/JPY analysis | Page 694 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/JPY

Similar Threads

GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF and GBP/NZD thread 126 replies

long eur/jpy, gbp/jpy, usd/jpy 11 replies

GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD (technical analysis) 3,084 replies

Gbp/jpy = Gbp/usd X Usd/jpy ?? 5 replies

Adwa Daily GBP/JPY analysis 23 replies

Attachments: Daily GBP/JPY analysis
Exit Attachments

Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,861
  • Oct 26, 2007 6:09am Oct 26, 2007 6:09am
Quoting Islander
I have been too busy during the past couple of weeks to post any analysis, but wanted to post what I am currently seeing.....over the past 3 months, on Fridays, there has been an 85% chance of a reversal within one hour of the London Open.

Today, I have 2 hourly time lines falling in the LO bar and two four hourly in the bar starting at 6am edt.....in 2 hours time......these representing times when GJ is more likely to make a chage, either by accererating a current move or by reversing . On the 15 min chart, the 2:30 candle (currently the high) had two TLs.

So far, GJ has held around the Daily R1 from the US close (I always work with the US close for pivots) also cable is currently at its R1 but UJ reversed from its R1 at 3:20 est.

So we are set for a reversal, but until (unless) cable can join UJ and turn down I have no signal - a close under a flat / falling 34 ema on the 5 min chart.

Thus at 4:35 est, the uptrend remains in force and must be respected.

Good to see your posts again Islander.... and interesting analysis.

Are these reversals retraces similar to this morning or more significant changes in the the trend.

A very high % though, could be a nice high probabilty and profitable method for fridays, do you have any similar statistics for the other times.

Chris.
  • #13,862
  • Oct 26, 2007 6:30am Oct 26, 2007 6:30am
Quoting Wolf.
Still looks long to me.

Broke out of the wedge this morning and is almost at the 235.5 level, may retrace some maybe down to the 234.20 area, before moving up again but there is a chance it will carry on trending up from here.

235.5 is strong resistance but if we can make it above will become good support for a move up to at least 237 .

My charts show the confluence of support that has given me confidence to keep longing from this area and shows the possible initial target area as mentioned in my previous posts.


Of course it may go down .
GJ has retraced (a nice retrace Islander) and found support at the the 234.2 level.

Up against a smaller declining t/l which I hope will break to take us north.

Price is compressed now between the lower red t/l and the 235.5 level, when either of these are broken I believe we will have a strong move. If the lower t/l is tested again there is a strong possibility of it being broken (it has been tested 3 times now).

Still looks long?

Time will tell!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 1h 261007a.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #13,863
  • Oct 26, 2007 7:45am Oct 26, 2007 7:45am
Quoting Wolf.
Good to see your posts again Islander.... and interesting analysis.

Are these reversals retraces similar to this morning or more significant changes in the the trend.

A very high % though, could be a nice high probabilty and profitable method for fridays, do you have any similar statistics for the other times.

Chris.
Hi Chris.....this Friday reversal info was a bye product of some other research - and the reversal was usually the high or low for that day - I wasnt looking in terms of the larger move, just the intra-day move.

I originally did two years of research on cable, but have only just started on GJ and this came up so I thought it worth posting.

Today we also had some time lines due as I´ve posted and those also helped confirming the short side.

So far, the move has stalled at the DP of 234.14 and its too early to tell if this will hold - but GJ is certainly a slow mover today and whilst UJ and GU are in conflict will remain so....and it is Poets Day!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,864
  • Oct 26, 2007 12:09pm Oct 26, 2007 12:09pm
I have set my Guppy short at 235.00 with a TP at 231.5 though the potential bat (salmon colour) could take it to just under 231.00. Stop is currently set to be+1.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: guppy1h.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #13,865
  • Oct 29, 2007 4:22am Oct 29, 2007 4:22am
Good Morning,

We are definatley still long this morning. At a strong resistance level here after making it past 235.5, a trend line from the two previous highs and the highfrom the 23rd 235.80.

I was long from friday but got stopped out after forgeting to allow for Oanda's spread widening over the weekend a stupid mistake on my part but got out with a small profit.

On the plus side a great low risk buy set up this morning at the London open wihich has turned out very nicely.

Its going to run out of steam at some point soon and after a pullback may present some more buying opportunities?

Took time to write this and price is way past the levels I just mentioned and is now at the daily R2.
  • #13,866
  • Oct 29, 2007 4:32am Oct 29, 2007 4:32am
Chart showing this mornings entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 5m 291007.gif Size: 43 KB
  • #13,867
  • Oct 30, 2007 12:41am Oct 30, 2007 12:41am
Good morning,

My entry 235.5 with an initial target of at least 237.

May fall but is visually an excellent place to long in my view.

Pivot at 235.83 may be a stumbling block also the high from the 23rd.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 30m 301107.gif Size: 50 KB
  • #13,868
  • Edited 1:11am Oct 30, 2007 1:00am | Edited 1:11am
So far looks like a good entry and is now above the upper rising t/l and another declining one (not shown).

Lets see whether the Londoners continue long.

Should find some support off the rising t/l.
  • #13,869
  • Oct 30, 2007 1:27am Oct 30, 2007 1:27am
The high of the F/L open is 236.23 this should/may be support and a possible?? long entry point.

Lets see!!
  • #13,870
  • Oct 30, 2007 5:14am Oct 30, 2007 5:14am
Testing the top of 4h wedge
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj-07oct29-4hwedge.jpg Size: 41 KB
  • #13,871
  • Oct 30, 2007 10:24am Oct 30, 2007 10:24am
Another nice little move up.

I have a resistance level on my chart at 237.75 were price has justed bounced off so it could possibly be a reversal point also we are at the midpoint of a channel I have on the daily.

Personally though I am looking for the price to continue up maybe finding support at the daily R1?

Of course I'm still long from this morning so it would be nice if it kept going.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 4h 301007.gif Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gj daily 301007.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #13,872
  • Oct 30, 2007 12:00pm Oct 30, 2007 12:00pm
Stops were hit on the last trades for a small profit but not ideal.

There is a potential reversal point at 239.45 and strong resistance at 241.06. So it looks like we are heading up until then.

There are some time points on the 1st/2nd of Nov (just after rate announcement). So any potential reversals could happen around then - but lets see where price is at that time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: guppy4h.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #13,873
  • Oct 30, 2007 12:42pm Oct 30, 2007 12:42pm
What do you think of this Zoran?

http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/7349/gjko5.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #13,874
  • Oct 30, 2007 1:03pm Oct 30, 2007 1:03pm
Quoting karmostaji
What do you think of this Zoran?
Is it supposed to be a bat?
  • #13,875
  • Oct 30, 2007 1:19pm Oct 30, 2007 1:19pm
Quoting Zoran
Is it supposed to be a bat?
yeah supposingly
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #13,876
  • Oct 30, 2007 1:42pm Oct 30, 2007 1:42pm
I'm looking for a general up movement but retraces along the way are expected. Not sure how strong that bat will be as it's not very clear cut. A retrace back to 236.7 is on the cards I think.
  • #13,877
  • Oct 30, 2007 2:01pm Oct 30, 2007 2:01pm
Quoting Zoran
I'm looking for a general up movement but retraces along the way are expected. Not sure how strong that bat will be as it's not very clear cut. A retrace back to 236.7 is on the cards I think.
IMO this retrace could go as low as 236, and then we'll have to see if the lower trendline of the bullish channel will hold or not.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #13,878
  • Oct 30, 2007 3:46pm Oct 30, 2007 3:46pm
Quoting karmostaji
IMO this retrace could go as low as 236, and then we'll have to see if the lower trendline of the bullish channel will hold or not.
I think that was the end of the retrace. Missed 236.7 by 5 pips.
  • #13,879
  • Oct 31, 2007 2:47am Oct 31, 2007 2:47am
Good Morning,

Still in my longs since yesterday morning, very nice bullish moves.

At level of resistance on my chart and may retrace soon, if it does probably down to around 237.8 before moving up to the 240 level.

Strong momentum though and maybe everyone wants to long so who knows?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 4h 311007a.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #13,880
  • Oct 31, 2007 2:54am Oct 31, 2007 2:54am
See how the price has climbed up this rising t/l this morning providing plenty of buying opportunities.

A break of this t/l may signal a retrace.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 5m 311007.gif Size: 36 KB
0 traders viewing now