Another attempt

Im back. Again. This time feeling more confident than the last. The postings stopped very quickly as I deviated from the plan and once again blew an account. Deviate from the plan and that should be no surprise. I am hoping here to track my moves so I can better monitor myself and my trading deciosions.

This morning closed a long gbp/jpy trade for +67. Almost immeadiatly took a short at 236.38 for a retrace back to the 200 4 hourly EMA at about 235.50. placed no stop loss and left trade open with a limit order of 235.50. Went to work. stopped in at lunch for further analysis. Still was facing a seemingly unbreakable resistance at north to 236.70 with a strong indication of heading south due to the OB Stoch and MOM that had already turnded and were heading south on the 1H themselves. It seemed that this cycle of the downward movement in my indicators was not having a strong enough effect on the pair to pull it back into retracement and remained mostly above 236.30 throughout the afternoon session.

Now after work at 7PM, the tight ragne the pair has been trading in all day seems to have broken south a bit more just penetrating the bottom of the days tradin range. Though not very strongly however the 1 hour Stochs and MOM are still on a downward path with plenty of time to drag this thing south. I will leave the position open until further notice. I still fully expect this pair to pull back at least 100 points until it continues further north.

Current Price: 236.37

A word on an missed aspect.

Price has also now fully met with the 15EMA and is resting just above that point the EMA begins to flatten out. This indicates to me that the price has not been strong enough to break its resistance at 236.7 and now relys soley on the 15EMA for support. If this trend of the two coming to head the price with soon fall below the average and the bears will be fully set in motion.

Current Price: 236.33

Chart

Limit now adjusted to 234.90

Current Price: 235.85

Still looking bearish..... limit order still stands

Good luck with your trading

Thanks Tin!

Very nice close on the last 30 min bar. This should start dropping rapidly any time now ;o)

Exit short positoin at 235.33 for +105 due to the 15 min chart showing a nice jab into the 200 EMA and respective bounce with Stoch and Mom that are about to turn around. Looking to take a long soon. Will hold off until further confirmation.

Took a long at 235.58 for a short scalp of about 30-50 pips off the 15 & 30 Min charts. will see how it goes. Got a very good reaction off the 200 EMA for a possible short term turnaround here. See where it goes form here. No stop loss at this time.

Limit order set at 236.00 for this one now

Closed @ 236.09 for +51 ;o) not bad for a nights work

sleepy time now!!

Short at 236.98 again. Looking for 40-50 pips. Retrace back to the 200EMA on the 1H chart around 236.40 or so - Limit currently set there for now. No Stop loss at this time. Stochs and MOM turning south on all charts up to 1H. Will monitor closely for any indication of a continuation of the bull run.

Closed position -35

Oh well

So the trade that was posted much earlier today where I ended up -35, was totally and completly stupid on my part. I should never have even considered that trade. Why? At that time I was getting ready for work and thought I would check to see what the markets were up to. I looked at the chart and saw a setup for a quick short to catch of a few pips that I could just not pass up. I figured "theres no way this one will go against me, ill just go brush my teeth and what not and come back and check it in a few minutes". BIG MISTAKE!!! If there is one thing that will surely blow up your account is trading simply to trade which that was. I did not have the time to sit and monitor my position, if I had had that time I probably would have jumped out with about +10 but since I traded when I didnt have the time to, I missed my signal telling me to get out now! So anyways I guess I could have left that position open all day and still been alright in the end as we're are pretty much still at that same place, however I figured that since I F*ucked up I better just take my meds or Ill never learn.

PS. I am currently looking for the next 15 min bar to close below the 15EMA. If it does this I may consider a short position. Also if that coincides with the hourly bar closing below its 15EMA I will be a very happy boy ;o) Will post charts if anything happens or I take a position.

These are my short signals for tonight. S @ 237.20 SL around 237.65-75ish am flexible on the SL as I have tim to sit and monitor this one. Stoch and MOM in many TFs are ready pull lower it looks like. the last 30M had a good start and just plummeted. Something tells me that price action like is a good sign for at least a small bear move here. We shall see Limit around 236.00 for now.

What a beautiful pinbar on the 1M chart ;o)

Just looks cool with price flowing up to is so quickly and once that pinbar hit formed a pretty neat looking reversal..........

Wedgie Time!! Which way will she go boss, which way will she go!?!

Just noticed this. Seems that price has an upward bias in the wedge however I will remain in my current S position as I dont think it has anywhere enough support to break to the north. Even if it does break thsi wedge to the upside I dont think it will be very powerful at all. We shall see!

Well, the last trade was stopped out at 237.75 for -55.

Doh! There is something to be said about trading against a strong uptrend. ;o)

Given the current situation with the interest rate statement coming out this afternoon I am taking a Long position from here on the GBP/JPY @ 238.80. I expect that the fed will once again lower interest rates most likely and if this occurs the G/J will take off to the moon as it did last time. It appears that most of the markets is in agreeance with me in thinking that the fed will once again lower rates. It seems that all indicators (Stochs and MOM) keep making it into overbought territoty and once they reach that point thye completly unwind without having much retrace in price. This would make me think that the stong uptrend is still intact and will remain that way for a while. If you take a look at the daily charts you will see that the Stochs and Mom are still very much pointing north and the price seems to just be sitting on a launching pad waiting for the fed statement. I believe that until the statement comes out we will be in a range most of the day, so for about the next 5 hours I wont be expecting much to happen, should be fun if something does though ;o)

If the fed does infact lower rates I see this pair reaching a min. of at least 244. We shall see!!

GFI...........

bravo.....bravo.......true courage indeed to come back after an unfortunate big loss, can't say i can do the same.......

all the very best..........!

by the way, what was your plan as mentioned in the very first post ? i don't stick to my plans too and just curious to know why others also have the same problems......

were you just too filled with fear or greed or was your plan very complicated ?

Not too bad of a loss. I had the two positive trades for a profit of about +156 so with the two losers im still at about +66 or so.

My trading plan consists of no rigid rules. I trade off of OB & OS Stsochs and Mom along with 5, 15 & 200 EMA and simply just go by what I think they are trying to tell me. I do not have anything rigid as "if x & y do this and z is this then this happens" It is all very discrectionary, which could be a big down fall for me but we shall see.

As far as the "plan" that I wanted to stick to, it simply consists of: Not trading when I dont have the time, no trading simply to trade without reason, no overleveraging, use stops if I cannot be sitting at the computer the entire time of the trade, and taking profits before they vanish when trading against the trend, and dont trade against a larger trend in a smaller TF unless the larger trend appears to be breaking down.

The last rule I broke last night. Had I been looking at the larger trend on the 4H, 8H and 1D I would have seen that neither of these north trends were ever in jeopordy of breaking down or slowing. At that time on the 4H chart there were 6 consecutive north bars with not even one of them closing down. So taking that trade was not the wisest of choices, however as I stated my whole plan is very discretionary and that is what happens when no rigid trading rules are set in place.

Anyways so far almost +30 on this one to start and a long way up to go! GO BULLS!!