Dollie's Safe Pips Indicator

On average how many pips are you guys making from this system per month?
Has it been consistent?

I think it was in Dollie's first post on this thread that she said something like: "I don't see how you could lose pips on this." That's how confident she was in her excellent system, and she's been proved right. The original method she came up with was brilliant, as far as I'm concerned. Then Pip-pirate and her got together and came up with a more sophisticated version, using more indicators, and by all accounts, it has been just as successful as the original. However, you'd have to ask pip-pirate about that, as he uses it exclusively on a longer TF. I prefer to stick with the original, which as I already told you, I've slightly modified for my own purposes. One thing I can tell you is that the method - original or modified - is very consistent. As far as average pips are concerned, it's something I've not bothered to work out. All I know is that it does the business, produces pips on a regular basis, with very few bad trades. In fact, the bad trades that I've had were almost all due to careless judgement on my part.
As the pirate said, give it a go, paper trade or demo for a while, and as the pirate also said: "You will love it!"
Cheers

This is an example of what looks like a possible trade, but when examined closely, just isn't worth the effort because thing just don't look good. The initial signal in the DZ window is fair enough, but follow the 1st yellow vertical line up and what do you see? In the middle window, the RSI2 has crossed the zero line with the CCI6 in this case, lagging quite a bit. The lsma3 is entering the orange/blue zone, but in a very high position which doesn't give it much room to move before possibly crossing the OB line. In the chart window itself, the candle the vertical line corresponds with, is very near the R1 line. In cases like this, I would normally wait until the line has been breached, but in this particular case, I wouldn't have bothered with the trade at all. Look at the candle before the actual breach.......it's a spinning top. Not a very positive sign. Then, when the line is breached by the next candle, as I mentioned earlier, the lsma3 is heading out of the orange/blue zone, and into the OB zone. The whole thing would have been a high-risk trade, and not worth the effort when there's so many better opportunities around. Everyone would have their own reasons for not entering this trade, but for me, the whole thing centred around the R1 line, which is why I would never ever be without Pivot Points. They can indicate good entries, and on the other hand, bad ones like this one, and very rarely do they let you down. Quite simply, I love 'em!!

EDIT: In case you're wondering why I didn't go for the nice opportunity just previous to the above..........I was still in bed! Entry for that one would have been just before my alarm went off!!

Squid this question comes up a lot and eyevolt has answered it well. So much depends on you. No need to answer back but consider: How long have you been trading? What times of the day do you trade? What type of trader are you? How is your thinking and how many books have you read on thinking? Can you take a loss? I have realized after 2 1/2 years that I need to change from being a scapler to a swing trader and it is a hard process to change. So my results will be posted soon as the results improve. Paper trade for months and then the pips will come. Welcome to this wonderful system and continue to write. Spend the weekend going through the thread.

Hi
Been watching Dollie for a while now, first tried it in it’s original format and seemed to get some nice result’s. Due to inconveniences (work) it’s difficult for me to trade the smaller time frames. Have any of you guy’s traded the higher time frames 4H or higher ?

I haven't traded Dollie on anything higher than a 15m chart. From what I can see, Dollie would seem to be just as efficient on the higher ones, but the man who can tell you better than me is pip pirate2. He's presently working on his 4H strategy, and has been for a while, so he's the man to talk to for the latest developments up there.

Cheers

Two opportunities here, but I wasn't really happy with the first one. I shouldn't have bothered as the set-up wasn't as neat as I would have liked. After the 1st yellow vertical, the RSI2/CCI6 weren't in that nice neat "together" formation that I prefer as they cross the zero line. Plus, Guppy wasn't showing any sign of life, so it should have been dismissed. (Don't take any notice of the lsma3 in the middle window. At the time I entered (1st blue arrow) it was actually well up near the OB zone, but as the chart progresses, it does move around a lot, and I'm rapidly losing patience with it. I'm starting to rely a lot more on the CCI6 line, which seems to be a safer option when it's in the orange/blue zone.) Anyway, as far as this trade is concerned, I decided to exit at the 2nd blue arrow as the RSI2/CCI6 was dropping rapidly with the CCI6 now outside the zone. 9 pips profit, but a bit of a high-risk trade and not recommended, so hopefully, I'll learn from this.
The second opportunity is something else entirely, and when you see a set-up like this, you wonder wtf you bother with examples like the previous one for!! If you follow the 2nd yellow vertical up, you'll see how the RSI2/CCI6 are both crossing the the zero line together, with the Guppy looking a lot healthier. Again, at this point, the lsma3 as actually way up near the OB zone again, and not where you see it on this chart. Entry at the 3rd blue arrow, with the M4 line the target, but looking at Guppy, I was almost certain that it would progress further than that, which it eventually did. Exit was just under the R2 line (4th blue arrow), as the lsma3 was leaving the zone. (The lsma3 DOES play its part, obviously, but make a habit of judging each case on its merits). Just look at Guppy at that point.......a lovely separation of MA's on the ST, with a widening gap between the ST and LT lines. Superb! Another great example of how Dollie and Guppy complement one another.

Swirly: Here are a few charts to show you what you can do. I simply found these two charts as examples as you can choose whatever pairs you want. The first chart uses the H4. As you know you might have to have a large S/L when you enter. I use Dollie's system part two (post #296). Look as all the indicators are important. Don't rely on just one. The arrows are the first at 10/22 at 0GMT, the second is at 10/24 at 0GMT, and the third is at 10/29 at 4GMT. The triple hull moves first to tell you something might be happening. Then the dynamic looks really good and I really like to have a flat macd. Know your candles too as you can see in the third example.

Here is an example with the daily chart, The first arrow is at 10/15 at 0GMT and the second at 10/25 at 0GMT. Notice the HMA color moving average has changed color. Big stop losses of course and then move to break even.

I'll have a look through your examples tonight when I'm home, there's a bit more to take in than when I originally looked at Dollie. I let you know how it goes. Are there any alerts that have been developed for Dollie that indicate when one of the conditions has been met to give you a heads up so that you can check the other indicators ?

I was still working on stopping my eyes from closing this morning when this opportunity arose, but I was up earlier than usual anyway. I always have trouble getting accustomed to the clocks going back to herald the approach of winter.
Anyway, everything was looking good at the yellow vertical, and I waited then to see if the price would breach the Pivot Point. It opened slightly above it eventually, about the same time as lsma3 was crossing the zero line, so that was my entry point. My initial target was the M3 line, which looked dodgy for a while (long upper shadows and dojis), but as the next candle breached the M3 line with very small upper and lower shadows, and the Guppy ST ma's were separating nicely, things looked pretty good. My exit point was just under the R1 line as lsma3 was about to leave the orange/blue zone and head into OB territory. It's always worth issuing a reminder about candle shadows. If you're going long, candles with long upper shadows could be bad news. If you're going short, the same goes for long lower shadows. Keep an eye out for them!

There aren't any alerts that I am aware of as we speak. The problem is as I see it with Dollie and alerts is that you must look at two or more indicators to confirm the move. One indicator isn't enough. You will learn with paper trading that there is a "feel" to the trade and if it is going to go the way you want it with the indicators. Now on the positive side: With a H4 or above outlook, you will see that there are the better times to take a trade, say in the london session as I see by your log in times you seem to be trading during that session. If you trade the london session you have to get rich eventually in my opinion. Paper trade for months, because you will be making fewer trades a month than most people. Look forward to your progress.


Read any successful person’s biography and it goes like this: struggle, struggle, struggle, small success; struggle, struggle, struggle, small success; struggle, big struggle, struggle, BIG SUCCESS. See setbacks as proof of your future success. What makes anyone think that trading is any different?

thanks pip pirate I'll let you know how things progress

I deliberately got up earlier this morning, seeing as things seem to start happening whilst I'm still in the Land of Nod! I wasn't disappointed as you can see from this USD/JPY chart. 1st yellow vertical = DZ heads-up (green crosses blue), which had already happened whilst I was in bed! 2nd yellow vertical = My entry point. Guppy was showing signs of waking up, plus, everything in the middle window was looking good. Again, like yesterday, ignore where the lsma3 is on the chart. It wasn't in that position at the time of the entry, but it just seems to hop around as the mood takes it. As I've mentioned before, I tend to take more notice of the CCI6 now, and if that's well-established in the orange/blue zone, as it was here, then I'm happy. Anyway, roughly an hour and three-quarters later, I exited the trade just under the M4 line, as lsma3 was leaving the zone into OB territory. However, if you look just under there, if I'd concentrated on the CCI6 instead, then I could have squeezed maybe another 5 or 6 pips out of it, but I prefer to err on the side of caution. Like yesterday, let me mention the candles again. Three of the candles during the trade are showing quite long upper shadows, so I kept a very close eye on them. You can't be too careful, even when everything's falling into place nicely and it looks like a brilliant trade. It's about then that complacency sets in, and sooner or later bites you in the ass!!

Swirly here is a big time trade that of course I didn't take as I was still studying also. This one takes some guts and patience. I smile when people don't want to trade the gbp/jpy because of the spread. Well it only moved over 550 pips that's all. Who cares about the spread? Now let me show you what I am trying to get better at and how the ideal way to make this trade in my opinion. First the daily chart. As you can see the pair made a strong short and then flatten out. It looks like it wants to go long. I love waiting for a flat macd on the zeromacd. The first arrow is at 10/25 and the second is at 10/28. You would have to have a big s/l to make it on the 25th but if you waited until the 28th it just went long. Green line on dynamic wasn't that great until the 28th and triple hull wasnt' great also. but follow what you could have done combining this with the H4

Now let's use the H4 to build up some pips to make the big trade. As you can see, once you knew that the pair had made its short move down and was consolidating, you could move to the H4 to make some pips. The first arrow was at 10/22. That move was 200+ pips. Great green line on the dynamic and the triple hull let us know the move could be coming. Then you wait. the second arrow is on 10/25. Now if you did enter here you can see it was a rough ride for a few days. But since you are up a lot of pips, you could set a big S/L and ride it out. If you waited until the 10/28, set your self for break even and let it ride for 400 more. Just some ideas.

You wait for ages, then two come along at once......well, relatively speaking, seeing as we're talking about Forex! The first one took nearly an hour and three-quarters (after the initial DZ warning) until the entry point appeared, and quite a lot of THAT candle had already appeared before Guppy starting convincing me that it was worth a punt. The next candle produced one of those dreaded "long upper shadows", but the following candle was very strong with only a token resistance from the Bears (very short upper shadow and a shaven bottom, if you'll pardon the expression!). My exit was prompted by the simultaneous exits of CCI6 and lsma3 from the orange/blue zone which was just as well when you look at the candle following my exit!
After that one, I wasn't really bothered, to be honest, but I left the monitor on whilst I was occupied by other things. I didn't really expect another signal of any note, but you can be sure that the rising candle after the DZ signal had my UNDIVIDED attention! I jumped right in after the candle opened above the M3 line and Guppy was showing a healthy widening of the ST ma's, plus a good separation from the LT's. I was a bit premature in my eventual exit, as both the CCI6 and the lsma3 had some potential left in the orange/blue zone. However, it was that pesky upper shadow, plus being right underneath the R1 line that finally had me leaving pips on the table.
Just as a footnote, these two trades were the only ones up to now that had been signalled by the DZ. The only other one was around 5.00am. No prizes for guessing what I was doing at that time!! ZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzz!!!

Great trades and you are the man when it comes to the gbp. Just an observation and I don't know if it is true. Do you trade shorting the pair? (This is not a criticism by any means). I don't remember too many trades by you shorting. The movement can move faster on the shorts. the short right after your first trade had a great look on the green line on the dynamic zone. I woke up looking at all the money made during the london session. During that short move on the pound, the gbp/jpy moved over 300 pips short. I'm still working on trading the bigger charts. Love to see you results.

Pirate, this system makes it so easy to spot what's coming. That DZ window gives such obvious signals, and all it takes is for the middle window to line everything up and it's literally all systems go. Well spotted re the lack of short trades. The reason is that, all in all, I'm not happy with the lsma3, which is supposed to be, to all intents and purposes, the trigger-puller. Maybe it's just me, but it always seems to give later signals for shorts than it does for longs, and consequently loses pips. The reason I didn't take that short on the chart above was that I'm not keen on trading against a trend, and the Guppy was showing definite signs of a upward trend. I know that on the smaller TF's perhaps it's not THAT important, but whatever the TF, I'd rather stick with the trend, even if it IS a mini-trend! Does that make sense?

By the way, as far as posting charts is concerned....I will if you will!! I give the picture of what's happening down my end of the spectrum, but I'd like to see more charts of yours, Pirate, so I can try and get my head around that system. Especially that Triple Hull. I'll crack it one day!!

Cheers for now.

Eyevoltage you are so right in many ways. The DZ green line is one of the best indicators out there. I just use it long and short. As long as it has some distance between the green line and the blue line it is safe as you know. You are correct that it is good not to go against the trend, but when I get good signals from all the indicators I have to go. Now for your answer to the triple hull. I love it as it can be an alert to an up and coming move. Look at the chart a few post back that I posted and you will see a perfect triple on the left. In this example long, 1. The blue line (RSI)must be heading up at 2 o'clock or steeper. 2. The dotted lines of triple hull and CCI must be following it closely and with a similar angle. CCI will usually hug the blue RSI. 3. Most important is how the LSMA reacts to all of this. In this example, it is at the bottom and then must start to go long. The LSMA moves more like a moving average and follows the candle moves. So if the LSMA is not moving long, then there is no trade as the blue lines will go up and down a lot with false moves. So if all the indicators here are moving together there is a good chance of a move. Usually this combo will give you a clue, especially on the bigger charts, that a move is coming soon. Then you use the other indicators to confirm and make the trade. So maybe just look at the triple hull on the H1 and M30 charts just to see if a move is coming, not to trade off of as you use the M15 charts the most. It gives me confidence that when I see a move starting, that I know it will give some pips. Try it out.