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  • #101
  • Oct 25, 2007 6:51pm Oct 25, 2007 6:51pm
Hi Pip,

I thought about the fib (and the pivot, as well) to protect my SL, but I rarely risk more than 20 pips, ever since I had my two big losses of - 50 each when I first began. The simple truth is, I think, I got in too late, and should have waited for another opportunity. If I had gotten in when I wanted to, my SL would have been placed below those levels and all would have been okay.

I'll look for they JPY announcements. Funny, I am so accustomed to watching for US news, I tend to forget about the rest.

Thanks for your thoughtful reply!



Quoting PipAV8tor
K2KV,

I feel your pain. I'm sure others do also. There are really only the 2 choices. You made a sound choice, because you had to leave, just take your lumps and live to trade another day. The other choice is to set a stop you can stomach, maybe at the Fib line just below your A candle, and set a reasonable profit limit of plus 10 or 15 pips and let it play out. In this case, it would have worked out, but you could have also had a greater loss. Its a coin flip. The good news is, you will have many opprotunities to make up for one bad moment. Lots of JPY announcements tonight, if I recall. Should make for some good movement.
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #102
  • Oct 25, 2007 6:59pm Oct 25, 2007 6:59pm
Hi Moneda,

Wow - 50 pip SL is so scary to me, especially since I am still so new at this game and am not completely confident in my ability to make good trade decisions. As I mentioned in my previous post, when I first started out I made two bad trades with 50 pip SL each, and lost a quick $1k USD. Scared the heck out of me, and I've been a little gun-shy ever since!

I have indeed read much of what's been written about money management, but will have to check out Jacko, since I've heard of that strategy before, as well.

I appreciate you sharing your 200 pip mistake; it helps to know I'm not alone.

Many thanks for your good advice...


Quoting moneda
Jeff,

Thanks for sharing a negative result. The circumstances made it difficult for you because you could not monitor your trade as you usually do but you did exercise restrain/discipline by closing your trade for a small loss. If there is anything that I can add is that the eur/jpy and aud/jpy need breathing room so in my case as long as I am going with the trend, I will give it as much as 50 pips. In most cases it has turned a negative entry into a profitable one after a price rebound. In order not to panic is important to stick to an amount that you does not cloud your decision with fear and/or greed. There is plenty of info on money management out there but I am sure that you have read that stuff already. Jacko's strategy is to get out and then hop back in at the exit price after the rebound.

You are not alone....I've had my share of dumb mistakes.... Here is one for you....I once lost over 200 pips after placing a trade at my in-laws on my way to the airport only to find myself stuck in the airport, unable to access my account and guess what? I have forgotten to put a stoploss!
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #103
  • Oct 25, 2007 10:30pm Oct 25, 2007 10:30pm
Jeff,

What u have described is very common amoung us traders that do not have the ability to set aside time purely for trading. The only way I can thing that you should have handled this, is that once the price was on its way, and you still believe in the trade,but are late to enter, determine where you would have entered, and what ur sl price would have been. Enter the trade with the same sl price, but adjust (reduce) ur trade size to reflect the higher pip sl. This way,u r still risking the same $$, but more pips, and in a trade that according to ur system, is a valid trade. Also, if two 50 pip sl have made u a very cautious trader, then I am suspecting, you are trading too high a leverage.

That is my 2 pips worth.

Regards,
K

PS. someone posted earlier for me to share my stoch settings that I adapted, Sorry I haven't had a chance, shall do it today or in the next few days.
  • #104
  • Oct 25, 2007 10:45pm Oct 25, 2007 10:45pm
Hi Kermut,

That is just very, very good advice, and I will apply it the next time I enter a trade later than I'd like. I work from home, so I can trade as long as I like, but I am unfortunately on the east coast, so the market gets pretty sluggish in the afternoon. You've hit the nail on the head, though, in that we often feel we need to make some trades, so our limited trading hours might force us into some less-than-perfect setups.

Regarding my high leverage, you're absolutely correct there, too. I entered the fray trading with larger dollars than I should have, but have since cut way back on my lot size, and will remain here until I begin to have a preponderance of pip-positive trades.

For now, it's not so much the money as it is my desire to remain in positive territory (not that the money is not important, of course).

Thanks again!



Quoting kermut
Jeff,

What u have described is very common amoung us traders that do not have the ability to set aside time purely for trading. The only way I can thing that you should have handled this, is that once the price was on its way, and you still believe in the trade,but are late to enter, determine where you would have entered, and what ur sl price would have been. Enter the trade with the same sl price, but adjust (reduce) ur trade size to reflect the higher pip sl. This way,u r still risking the same $$, but more pips, and in a trade that according to ur system, is a valid trade. Also, if two 50 pip sl have made u a very cautious trader, then I am suspecting, you are trading too high a leverage.

That is my 2 pips worth.

Regards,
K

PS. someone posted earlier for me to share my stoch settings that I adapted, Sorry I haven't had a chance, shall do it today or in the next few days.
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #105
  • Oct 26, 2007 3:40am Oct 26, 2007 3:40am
Quoting k2kv
Eventually it came back to -11 but I had to leave the house for awhile, so I decided to get out at -11 ("C" candle on chart) and minimize my loss

Can't seem to shake this bad habit. Any advice for this novice?

Thanks!
Jeff, At one point, I had a tendency to cut losses when a trade went a few pips against me. This is the way I now think about it to avoid that temptation:

Say your original trade you were aiming for a positive RR of say 2, risk 20 target 40

When you were considering whether to get out your options were:
A. get out for -11
B. stay in for risk of 9 & potential gain of 51 so RR better that 5, and no spread to pay

If something has changed, then it can be better to get out and cut your losses

BUT, if nothing has changed, staying in offers a fantastic low risk trade opportunity.

Charlie
  • #106
  • Oct 26, 2007 9:39am Oct 26, 2007 9:39am
Hi Charlie,

Interesting perspective, makes a lot of sense. The temptation to exit a trade when it seems to be turning against you is rather strong, and it seems almost unnatural to remain in the boat while it's sinking. I'll have to work on this.

Hey -- you guys are great, and I really appreciate all the time you've spent helping less experienced traders like me achieve greater success!

Many thanks!

Quoting charlies
Jeff, At one point, I had a tendency to cut losses when a trade went a few pips against me. This is the way I now think about it to avoid that temptation:

Say your original trade you were aiming for a positive RR of say 2, risk 20 target 40

When you were considering whether to get out your options were:
A. get out for -11
B. stay in for risk of 9 & potential gain of 51 so RR better that 5, and no spread to pay

If something has changed, then it can be better to get out and cut your losses

BUT, if nothing has changed, staying in offers a fantastic low risk trade opportunity.

Charlie
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #107
  • Edited 7:16am Oct 29, 2007 6:35am | Edited 7:16am
Hello,


I have a suggestion....why don't we place one of our charts or just describe what we are monitoring before we enter a trade? Perhaps it will generate discussion/advise/opinions that would be beneficial to all.

Here is what I am looking at today. I am basically waiting for a change of trend or a significant retracement to enter. My main focus is the MTF Stochs, if the 15/30 break the 76.4 with an nice angle. I would also like to see the 60 on its way down. I also keep an eye on the BB 's direction...is it hooking down? are the bands narrowing?. S/R....is price bouncing off a previous resistance now acting as support? Anyway....this is all theory right now...we will see what I end up doing when the is decision time. ........Patience....Patience......P....



PS: In and out for +18....My goal is at least 20 pips/day so this can be a good start...I may go in again if the retracement and/or breakout continues....Although soon I have to go to work
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Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #108
  • Oct 29, 2007 8:13am Oct 29, 2007 8:13am
Good morning Moneda,

Great idea! Only problem I see is that we'd all have to be trading around the same time of day. I trade from 9AM EST; wonder when everyone else is available to participate. I'd love to see a more interactive environment where we can all see what the others are thinking.

Nice trade, by the way -- but, I don't know what pair you're trading! So, I must ask -- why trade the retracement against the trend, rather than look for a move with the trend?

Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Jeff



Quoting moneda
Hello,


I have a suggestion....why don't we place one of our charts or just describe what we are monitoring before we enter a trade? Perhaps it will generate discussion/advise/opinions that would be beneficial to all.

Here is what I am looking at today. I am basically waiting for a change of trend or a significant retracement to enter. My main focus is the MTF Stochs, if the 15/30 break the 76.4 with an nice angle. I would also like to see the 60 on its way down. I also keep an eye on the BB 's direction...is it hooking down? are the bands narrowing?. S/R....is price bouncing off a previous resistance now acting as support? Anyway....this is all theory right now...we will see what I end up doing when the is decision time. ........Patience....Patience......P....



PS: In and out for +18....My goal is at least 20 pips/day so this can be a good start...I may go in again if the retracement and/or breakout continues....Although soon I have to go to work
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #109
  • Oct 29, 2007 8:36am Oct 29, 2007 8:36am
Hi guys,

Right now I'm watching the EURUSD, as 4H is well up at the top, and all the others are down at the bottom. Lower TF stochs are beginning to turn up, and I will watch for the 15 to cross 23.6 on its way back up, followed by the 30M. A pretty clear shot up before I hit any S & R or fibs.
Attached Image
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #110
  • Oct 29, 2007 8:53am Oct 29, 2007 8:53am
Well, I'll take that back...

Looks like I don't have such a clear shot after all (was looking at wrong data sheet):

SI, S2, R1, R2 & pivot, all impeding the way for an up move. I'll have to wait...

Quoting k2kv
Hi guys,

Right now I'm watching the EURUSD, as 4H is well up at the top, and all the others are down at the bottom. Lower TF stochs are beginning to turn up, and I will watch for the 15 to cross 23.6 on its way back up, followed by the 30M. A pretty clear shot up before I hit any S & R or fibs.
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #111
  • Oct 29, 2007 9:13am Oct 29, 2007 9:13am
Hello,

I see your intentions... The stoch may come back to the 4hr trend if there is adequate momentum to breakthrough your s/r/p. My pair is showing on the chart is aud/jpy. I went short again but right now I am down 15 pips not counting the +18 so .... I will either set a s/l and a pt or hang around until I close the trade.

Good luck
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #112
  • Oct 29, 2007 9:22am Oct 29, 2007 9:22am
Hi Moneda,

Aud/jpy is a 4-pip spread on Oanda, where gbpusd is 2.5, and eurusd is only .9 (!) so my inclination is to spend less on every trade, if possible.

I'm currently watching gbpusd as the 15M has fallen all the way down below 23.6 and once it turns around with confidence I'll look to go long as the stoch crosses back over. Much cleaner field back up, with all significant levels well below the current price.

Good luck on your trade; please keep us posted.

Quoting moneda
Hello,

I see your intentions... The stoch may come back to the 4hr trend if there is adequate momentum to breakthrough your s/r/p. My pair is showing on the chart is aud/jpy. I went short again but right now I am down 15 pips not counting the +18 so .... I will either set a s/l and a pt or hang around until I close the trade.

Good luck
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #113
  • Oct 29, 2007 9:30am Oct 29, 2007 9:30am
Jeff,

Sounds like a plan....aud/jpy is coming down again. Usually I trade the pound/yen but lately I have been trading the aussie because of lower spreads/commission and it is a tamer so I don't have to sweat the big fluctuations of the pound/yen.


Good luck
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #114
  • Oct 29, 2007 9:49am Oct 29, 2007 9:49am
A quick look at my audjpy chart does seem to show a more mild pair, nice steadier moves than what I'm trading here.

Looks like it's going your way, after all. Nice!

EURUSD keeps testing its levels and falling back. Even though the stochs are looking good (and I suspect momentum will overcome the levels standing in its way), I think there's a good chance I'll get killed if I enter this cycle.

We shall see...

Quoting moneda
Jeff,

Sounds like a plan....aud/jpy is coming down again. Usually I trade the pound/yen but lately I have been trading the aussie because of lower spreads/commission and it is a tamer so I don't have to sweat the big fluctuations of the pound/yen.


Good luck
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #115
  • Oct 29, 2007 9:55am Oct 29, 2007 9:55am
Took the GBPUSD at 2.0592, now up +3 as I write.

TP & SL both set to 23. We'll see how I feel as it progresses.
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #116
  • Oct 29, 2007 10:43am Oct 29, 2007 10:43am
Well,

I just took my GBPUSD profit at +10 pips. Decided that this week I would pretty much just let my trades run, once I was in (trying to exercise discipline here). Watched price move up nicely to +20, then retrace and drift awhile.

I decided to get out when tweezer top candles formed on my 15M chart, a sure sign of price reversal. Happened at the same time as the 15M stoch hit the 76.4. Seemed right.

Fear of loss was not a factor here (I had already moved my SL to BE). I simply exited based on my chart reading.

And , at the moment, it appears to have been the right move, but this could change quickly.

Cheers...

Quoting k2kv
Took the GBPUSD at 2.0592, now up +3 as I write.

TP & SL both set to 23. We'll see how I feel as it progresses.
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #117
  • Oct 29, 2007 11:13am Oct 29, 2007 11:13am
And so it did!

Price moved right back up, would have put me in even greater profit, and my +23TP would have been fait accomplis.

Ahh, if only I had ignored my charts as I promised I would!

Very tricky game, for sure...

Quoting k2kv
Well,

I just took my GBPUSD profit at +10 pips. Decided that this week I would pretty much just let my trades run, once I was in (trying to exercise discipline here). Watched price move up nicely to +20, then retrace and drift awhile.

I decided to get out when tweezer top candles formed on my 15M chart, a sure sign of price reversal. Happened at the same time as the 15M stoch hit the 76.4. Seemed right.

Fear of loss was not a factor here (I had already moved my SL to BE). I simply exited based on my chart reading.

And , at the moment, it appears to have been the right move, but this could change quickly.

Cheers...
Jeff Singer, K2KV
  • #118
  • Oct 29, 2007 1:40pm Oct 29, 2007 1:40pm
Jeff,

Very nice. I am basically targeting the same # of pips as you. Well, I came home from work and a half an hour later I exited with an extra 9+ pips. It is 2:30pm est and the action slows down quite a bit so I will wait for and see how the action is when Tokyo Opens.... Darn! price dropped another 10pips ..Oh well have to remind myself that there will be another opportunity around the corner.

Until next time
Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #119
  • Oct 29, 2007 1:57pm Oct 29, 2007 1:57pm
Quoting k2kv
Hi guys,

Right now I'm watching the EURUSD, as 4H is well up at the top, and all the others are down at the bottom. Lower TF stochs are beginning to turn up, and I will watch for the 15 to cross 23.6 on its way back up, followed by the 30M. A pretty clear shot up before I hit any S & R or fibs.
Do you have a template for your chart set-up?

Thanks
  • #120
  • Oct 29, 2007 11:21pm Oct 29, 2007 11:21pm
Guys, you are doing great with this. Have you tried a scaled exit, ie ext x% of position when you normally would, and leave a little on for those times when it really flies in your direction? eg. if you sl is say 20 pips, and u exit 80% of ur position at say 10 pips, bring ur remainder position to be or 5 pip sl etc. Many posibilities, but it gives you the ability to really capitalise on a really good move.

Another thing to note is the rope theory by spud. I have often found that if you look at the 1hr rope or the 4h rope, and if your trades are in the direction being pointed by the rope, you are cutting yourself short by exiting early. This is where scaled exit is really beneficial.

Have a look at it, and let me know what you think.

Regards,
K.
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