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  • #41
  • Oct 15, 2007 9:08pm Oct 15, 2007 9:08pm
Quoting Bemac
OK. Do you need someone else {lesser to be discarded, higher to be argued} to critique your above comment, or, are you going to do that by yourself?
Not intended as a slam. Honestly it's not. I wrote it this way because you seem on the cusp of your next hurdle.

You figure it out and you are beyond this cusp for the rest of your career.

{CLUE} What YOU believe vs Everyone Else... = ? ? ?
{[General comment and not directed at the current market]}
First, I am open and welcome criticism. Now, what I believe is that my tools work. What everyone else believes I don't have a clue. So I guess that means that I don't know who I'm up against, hehe.

I'm sure there are more hurdles in the future, but it seems like they are easier to deal with as time goes on. If you can see my next hurdle, please tell me now!!

I am genuinely interested in your critique/advice.
  • #42
  • Oct 16, 2007 12:18am Oct 16, 2007 12:18am
Going back to the CHF/JPY 4hour chart you can see it zoomed in and why I would want to take some profits near 99.95 should the price move that direction. It is very close the top of a small channel AND the 100.00 psychological number.

I would also be wary of a break below 99.20
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  • #43
  • Oct 16, 2007 2:40am Oct 16, 2007 2:40am
Quoting JFX81

Bear in mind that this is barring any serious fundamental event that trounces consensus.
Case in point. CHF Retail numbers were well below consensus and market reacted accordingly. This is why one has to analyze charts at the proper time and also be aware of macro issues at play.

As you can see, the price moved below 99.20 just right before the numbers were released and then slipped well below 99.00, signaling the possible reverse mentioned earlier.
  • #44
  • Oct 16, 2007 5:41am Oct 16, 2007 5:41am
GM everyone,

I was stopped last night for 2 pips. I thought this might happen, b/c price was taking too long and the larger outer fork line hadn't been tested yet. Bias now is short, and as much as I'd like to redeem myself by posting some good trades, I'm not going to bother myself.

Losers are part of the business, but the key is limiting your drawdown to as small as possible.

Here's the fork. The yellow one, obviously. Now its median line should be hit fairly soon.
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  • #45
  • Oct 16, 2007 6:16am Oct 16, 2007 6:16am
Man what a mess! dont you get confused with so many lines on your chart?
  • #46
  • Oct 16, 2007 6:47am Oct 16, 2007 6:47am
Quoting WTB
Man what a mess! dont you get confused with so many lines on your chart?

LOL!! Sometimes, yes I do. Takes a while to get used to this, believe me.
  • #47
  • Edited 4:24pm Oct 16, 2007 2:20pm | Edited 4:24pm
Before tomorrow, I would like to post some analysis on the possible ramifications of tomorrow's CPI data on EUR/USD. I have a ton of things to do over the next few hours so if anyone would like to offer their take (post charts, comments, etc...) please feel free to do so.

As always, PM anything you would like specifically addressed and I will try to accommodate.
  • #48
  • Oct 16, 2007 6:30pm Oct 16, 2007 6:30pm
Quoting bebop
GM everyone,

I was stopped last night for 2 pips. I thought this might happen, b/c price was taking too long and the larger outer fork line hadn't been tested yet. Bias now is short, and as much as I'd like to redeem myself by posting some good trades, I'm not going to bother myself.

Losers are part of the business, but the key is limiting your drawdown to as small as possible.

Here's the fork. The yellow one, obviously. Now its median line should be hit fairly soon.
How about these lines?
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  • #49
  • Oct 16, 2007 8:36pm Oct 16, 2007 8:36pm
Quoting Bemac
How about these lines?
I appreciate the advice, and I do keep track of a few fib retracements, but if I put more lines on my charts I will definately go crazy! People say I'm close enough as it is.

----Updating every trade is too much for me, but I will post this analysis, fwiw.
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  • #50
  • Oct 16, 2007 8:45pm Oct 16, 2007 8:45pm
This line has worked very well.....too well possibly!

There really is much greater potential than this, IMO. But I can't go wrong taking a few 100 pips. So, we'll see.
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  • #51
  • Oct 16, 2007 10:44pm Oct 16, 2007 10:44pm
Seriously, how much more proof do people need that pitchforks work. This one example alone should speak volumes.

I'm not saying I took all these trades, btw.
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  • #52
  • Edited Oct 17, 2007 12:03am Oct 16, 2007 11:16pm | Edited Oct 17, 2007 12:03am
Quoting JFX81
Before tomorrow, I would like to post some analysis on the possible ramifications of tomorrow's CPI data on EUR/USD. I have a ton of things to do over the next few hours so if anyone would like to offer their take (post charts, comments, etc...) please feel free to do so.

As always, PM anything you would like specifically addressed and I will try to accommodate.
EUR/USD

First I would like to start with giving a little look into the 4hr chart and see what is going on. Drawing in the major upward trendline yields the first obvious point of support at approximately 1.4138

If CPI comes in a hair strong then you will likely see a quick move to that level and you will have to watch and see if it stalls out. If it stalls there or fails to break through then you might see a reversal despite a good number.

If the CPI number comes out slightly below consensus we should see a move first to 1.4190 then the psychological 1.4200
If the price can get through that for one or two 5m candles then 1.4225 is the next place to look for but I could see it stalling there or just possibly making a weak attempt for 1.4240.

The second chart is the 10m chart with all of these levels drawn in for reference. The reason those lines are drawn in should be pretty apparent.

Essentially:
CPI very strong: Initial quick move down
CPI slightly strong: Initial move to 1.4138ish
CPI at consensus: Stall for a few minutes then attempt up to 1.4190
CPI slightly weak: Decent move to 1.4190 and then test of 1.4200, onward to 1.4225
CPI very weak: Immediate move to 1.4200, test 1.4225, up to 1.4250ish
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  • #53
  • Edited 9:07am Oct 17, 2007 8:37am | Edited 9:07am
Quoting JFX81
EUR/USD


Essentially:

CPI at consensus: Stall for a few minutes then attempt up to 1.4190
CPI slightly weak: Decent move to 1.4190 and then test of 1.4200, onward to 1.4225
Core CPI came in right at consensus, stalled for a few minutes going up and down between 15 pips, and has just now touched 1.4225

The white arrow shows when the numbers came out and how things went down on the 5min chart.
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  • #54
  • Oct 17, 2007 9:10am Oct 17, 2007 9:10am
CPI trade is now over. Time to focus in on crude inventories out in 20 minutes.

1.4205 could be a temporary support. Nothing super strong though.
  • #55
  • Oct 17, 2007 5:48pm Oct 17, 2007 5:48pm
Hello everyone,

JFX81, very nice analysis!!

Well, today was not what I had in mind, and by the time I had woke up this morning price was still going sideways/up. That's never a good thing, b/c price needs to confirm your outlook for any reason to stay in the trade.

Anyways, I still think there is greater downside potential, but price needs to come down now. Breaking out of this ellipse would be bullish.
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  • #56
  • Edited 10:57am Oct 18, 2007 10:31am | Edited 10:57am
I am curious to hear/see how others are breaking down the EUR/USD movement. Tomorrow the first two major things going on for the USD, specifically, is Bernanke speaking, but I don't really see him saying anything to freak out the markets any more than they already have been.

Anyone who watches the Eur/USD noticed last night that the catalyst for the EUR strength was actually the British Pound. Clearly the Euro and Pound are two different currencies, but they do lead each other given the fact that they have acted over the past few years almost as if one were pegged to the other. At 3:30am Central Time the British released their Retail Sales figures. Consensus was for them to come out at 0.1% but they beat expectation and posted at 0.6%

Immediately the pound jumped up about 40 pips, then came back and virtually flatlined for a couple of hours. The price action of the EUR/USD is almost a mirror image.




With that being said, other than Bernanke (w/Bill Poole) speaking tomorrow, the early morning risk to EUR/USD actually rests on the shoulders of tomorrow's GDP figures in Britain.

That being said, how do you see it?

I personally think that even if the GBP economic data comes in at consensus I see the USD depreciating slightly more since we have the ominous G7 meeting starting tomorrow. Hold on to your seats folks.

(Here is quick and interesting read; http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e87f070e-7...0779fd2ac.html)
  • #57
  • Edited 1:03pm Oct 23, 2007 12:24pm | Edited 1:03pm
Quoting JFX81
If the price makes a clear break of 99.00 it would signal a trend reversal.
Quoting JFX81
I would also be wary of a break below 99.20

Quoting JFX81
Case in point. CHF Retail numbers were well below consensus and market reacted accordingly. This is why one has to analyze charts at the proper time and also be aware of macro issues at play.

As you can see, the price moved below 99.20 just right before the numbers were released and then slipped well below 99.00, signaling the possible reversal mentioned earlier.
Time to revisit that chart. The trend flipped pretty decisively and if it stays below the 98.20 level then look for the trend to continue downward.

Soul, did you catch that trend?
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  • #58
  • Oct 23, 2007 2:58pm Oct 23, 2007 2:58pm
Daily showed a classic S/H/S formation with neckline bust.. Target taken from measurement of the head to neckline.. I guess sometimes classic chart reading does work.. Current chart action shows the drift and so I would expect another bump down in price.. If current R is taken I'd have to re-think it.. As for the S/H/S formation I like to have the right shoulder higher then the left..

http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/4508/heassxd8.png
Check Mate GAME OVER
  • #59
  • Oct 29, 2007 1:24am Oct 29, 2007 1:24am
Quoting JFX81
Time to revisit that chart. The trend flipped pretty decisively and if it stays below the 98.20 level then look for the trend to continue downward.

Soul, did you catch that trend?
Guess not! Oh well...
  • #60
  • Nov 13, 2007 12:11pm Nov 13, 2007 12:11pm
Tomorrow is the first real inflationary data of the week for the United States. Let's look at EUR/USD

By looking at the 4hr chart that begins in Sept. one can see the sharp increase in value for the Euro and that it has been in a decent channel. Currently the price movement has stalled. Over the next 24 hours I will be looking to see if oil continues to retreat and stocks continue to go up as they have so far today. If the price of the Euro can stay below $1.4620ish before tomorrow morning’s Retail Sales and PPI data then I will be looking for a quick short of the Euro should that data come in well for the U.S.

If the data comes in poorly then the thinking changes and I’ll be watching that for a test run to $1.4700. If it does try to make a run for $1.4700 then beware of the $1.4663 level as it could provide some resistance on the way up simply by analyzing the 5-min chart and noting the Fibonacci line coinciding precisely with the Monday morning spike of the EUR/USD.
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