Now I know why 95% of traders are on losing side | Page 12 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Why are most retail traders usually on the wrong side of the market? 405 replies

Do you know a system to stop over losing in the same day? 13 replies

DD "taking opposite side of trade" explain why this is bad? 5 replies

Why the need for side scroll. w/ diff. time per. 1 reply

Attachments: Now I know why 95% of traders are on losing side
Exit Attachments

Now I know why 95% of traders are on losing side

  • #221
  • Oct 27, 2007 5:54am Oct 27, 2007 5:54am
Quoting DXTrade
Interesting thread.
Opinions bouncing against each other like a religion.
You need to trade YOUR way of trading. Both approaches have their reasons, and if it's only the personal temperament.

I tried to combine the two (+10 pips and +100 pips) by splitting my trade size by three. Yes, it has been said already, I know... by taking my profits partly I reduce the total profit, but thats how I like it.

I exit my 1st 1/3 of my lot size at +20 and move my initial 30 SL to +1. The second TP is +40 for the 2nd 1/3 and my SL is moved to +20. The 3rd TP is +60.
That gives me an average cleaned pip profit per trade of about 15-30 pips per trade.
1st scenario:
price never hits +20 and goes back=-30
2nd scenario:
price goes to +20 and then back down: +20 +1 +1 (22/3)=+7
3rd scenario
price goes to +40 and then back down: +20 +40 +20 (80/3)=+27
4th scenario
price goes to +60: +20 +40 +60 (120/3)=+40

For the slow pairs (EUR/USD) is set the TPs to +15 +30 +50 with SL at -25

I might miss on big moves, but I very rarely hit my SL of -30. Most trades go at least to +20... and I'm safe for the rest of the trade. And this gives me a huge security and self confidence, and I'm not watching my trade for hours being scared of reversals.

Just my 2 pips worth
Seems like you know what your doing. And that is the most important thing.

I attended this webinar a few weeks ago in which the pro said something i still struggle with. He said the following:

a) You enter say a buy trade after you got your signal. You buy 1 lot say at 1.4200. You put your stop loss at 1.4180.

b) As soon as price moves up to 1.4220 you adjust your stop loss to 1.4200 (breakeven) and you buy another lot at 1.4220 with a stop loss at 1.4200.

c) As soon as price moves up to 1.4240 you adjust your stop loss from the first lot a) to 1.4220 (now you have 20 pips profit no matter what happens). You adjust your stop loss from b) to 1.4220 (breakeven) and you buy another lot at 1.4240 with a stop loss at 1.4220.

d) As soon as price goes up to 1.4260 you adjust your stop from a) to 1.4240 (40 pip profit no matter what happens). You adjust your stop loss from b) to 1.4220 (20 pips profit no matter what happens). You adjust your stop loss from c) to 1.4240 (breakeven).

Now you just let your trades run their course. If your stop losses get hit you walk away with a) 40 pips, b) 20 pips, c) breakeven or better

Has anyone ever tried this and if so did it work?

Damn i just got a headache from trying to remember all this logic while typing...trying not to mess it up....imagine me trying to trade this....lol
  • #222
  • Oct 27, 2007 6:07am Oct 27, 2007 6:07am
Quoting spiderforex
I would believe to agree with you...BUT there is a time for learning any skill....if we wanna fly an aircraft....there is a minimum period..i think of may be an year or two..no matter how dedicated we are...the teacher will never hand over the keys to us..even if we are number 1 in class...remember Airbus A380 Singapore airlines which recently flew from Singapore to Sydney....it was flown by a pilot with 36 years of experience ...no matter how skillful and surely there must be 100's of other pilots equally good at what they do and they also could have flown it easily...but still the management went with "EXPERIENCE"

People generally do not associate what it really means to be "EXPERIENCED"....Im not sure if we have any profession which require less than an year to learn..

Five years in learning FOREX is fairly ok..considering the complexity and mental adjustment it requires...after five years...you really "BECOME" a forex trader and now consider with being an engineer or a Docter...even after 5 years of learning...you only get to enter the lowest grade and start with being a trainee....


and in FOREX...after 5 years..we can shoot directly for that Million dollar mark and from three years onwards itself..you start converting your skills into profit with occasional losses..and after 5 years you completely become a "PROFESSIONAL TRADER"

We really become a "PROFESSIONAL" in just 5 years..WOW..we are very very lucky to be in FOREX right now..considering we are in our 20's and 30's...rest of our life is gonna be very smoooth indeed ..
Well i must admit i learn new things every day. Forex is one big place where there are millions of ideas and strategies. And there were times when i suffered from Info overload. There were so many traders that i liked to listen to. But the problem is they all have different strategies. Trying all sorts of things and ideas and strategies. Up to a point that i realised i am making this very difficult for myself.

I just learned this week that you can use fibonacci to get good low risk entry points. This dude uses 50% and 61% levels as entry points BUT only if the two are close to each other...say less than 20-40 pips away. He would then place his entry order at 50% level and stop loss a few pips under 61% level. Damn and we all know that the market respects the 50% and 61% fib level so chances are the market will bounce off those levels...activating his market order and not hit his stop loss....prett smart i would say
  • #223
  • Oct 27, 2007 3:44pm Oct 27, 2007 3:44pm
Quoting iandekoker
Seems like you know what your doing. And that is the most important thing.

I attended this webinar a few weeks ago in which the pro said something i still struggle with. He said the following:

a) You enter say a buy trade after you got your signal. You buy 1 lot say at 1.4200. You put your stop loss at 1.4180.

b) As soon as price moves up to 1.4220 you adjust your stop loss to 1.4200 (breakeven) and you buy another lot at 1.4220 with a stop loss at 1.4200.

c) As soon as price moves up to 1.4240 you adjust your stop loss from the first lot a) to 1.4220 (now you have 20 pips profit no matter what happens). You adjust your stop loss from b) to 1.4220 (breakeven) and you buy another lot at 1.4240 with a stop loss at 1.4220.

d) As soon as price goes up to 1.4260 you adjust your stop from a) to 1.4240 (40 pip profit no matter what happens). You adjust your stop loss from b) to 1.4220 (20 pips profit no matter what happens). You adjust your stop loss from c) to 1.4240 (breakeven).

Now you just let your trades run their course. If your stop losses get hit you walk away with a) 40 pips, b) 20 pips, c) breakeven or better

Has anyone ever tried this and if so did it work?

Damn i just got a headache from trying to remember all this logic while typing...trying not to mess it up....imagine me trying to trade this....lol
I think this will won't work during ranging markets, but might work during a strong breakout where price makes a clean break of a round number goes up at least by 50 pips. But those are rare nowadays. More likely one would be lucky to get 20 pips on average out of this. Not to mention expenses on spread and some brokers like IBFX increase spread sometimes on breakouts
  • #224
  • Oct 27, 2007 4:07pm Oct 27, 2007 4:07pm
Quoting thepunisher
I think this will won't work during ranging markets, but might work during a strong breakout where price makes a clean break of a round number goes up at least by 50 pips. But those are rare nowadays. More likely one would be lucky to get 20 pips on average out of this. Not to mention expenses on spread and some brokers like IBFX increase spread sometimes on breakouts

See my problem with this whole approach is: my dont you just buy 4 lots to start with and let those run while you adjust your stop loss so break even as soon as possible?

or am i a too stupid to see the benefits of his approach?lol
  • #225
  • Oct 27, 2007 4:27pm Oct 27, 2007 4:27pm
Quoting iandekoker
Well i must admit i learn new things every day. Forex is one big place where there are millions of ideas and strategies. And there were times when i suffered from Info overload. There were so many traders that i liked to listen to. But the problem is they all have different strategies. Trying all sorts of things and ideas and strategies. Up to a point that i realised i am making this very difficult for myself.

I just learned this week that you can use fibonacci to get good low risk entry points. This dude uses 50% and 61% levels as entry points BUT only if the two are close to each other...say less than 20-40 pips away. He would then place his entry order at 50% level and stop loss a few pips under 61% level. Damn and we all know that the market respects the 50% and 61% fib level so chances are the market will bounce off those levels...activating his market order and not hit his stop loss....prett smart i would say
I agree....so much to learn everyday and even if we don't understand any concept..the thing will stay in our minds and will sink in after a period of time....
  • #226
  • Oct 27, 2007 4:49pm Oct 27, 2007 4:49pm
Now we know how to trade!
Fuck Forex Factory
  • #227
  • Oct 27, 2007 5:03pm Oct 27, 2007 5:03pm
Quoting spiderforex
I agree....so much to learn everyday and even if we don't understand any concept..the thing will stay in our minds and will sink in after a period of time....
Yes one must have a teachable spirit. But also be careful who you learn from......personaly i wouldnt learn from someone who has a smaller account than mine....there is just a big psychological difference between a $100 account and a $100 000 account....but that is just my opinion
  • #228
  • Edited 5:50pm Oct 27, 2007 5:25pm | Edited 5:50pm
Quoting spiderforex
BUT here all we are trying to do is just take take take and give back nothing in return..how difficult is that gonna be...people on the other side too are trying to do the same thing...

There is no value attached to what we are doing...i
Every time I take a trade, I'm providing someone on the other end with something they want. Same with every exit. And, both of them, and myself, can all make money.

I am also putting up my hard-earned dollars to add liquidity to a market. This helps the world go 'round. Smooths out the financial bumps.
  • #229
  • Oct 27, 2007 5:45pm Oct 27, 2007 5:45pm
Quoting iandekoker
I've played around with a strategy like this for a month or two.

I attended this webinar a few weeks ago in which the pro said something i still struggle with. He said the following:

a) You enter say a buy trade after you got your signal. You buy 1 lot say at 1.4200. You put your stop loss at 1.4180.

b) As soon as price moves up to 1.4220 you adjust your stop loss to 1.4200 (breakeven) and you buy another lot at 1.4220 with a stop loss at 1.4200.

If price goes south at this point, you lost 20 in a trade that was up 20.

c) As soon as price moves up to 1.4240 you adjust your stop loss from the first lot a) to 1.4220 (now you have 20 pips profit no matter what happens). You adjust your stop loss from b) to 1.4220 (breakeven) and you buy another lot at 1.4240 with a stop loss at 1.4220.

Here if price hits the stops you would break even on a trade that was up 60.

d) As soon as price goes up to 1.4260 you adjust your stop from a) to 1.4240 (40 pip profit no matter what happens). You adjust your stop loss from b) to 1.4220 (20 pips profit no matter what happens). You adjust your stop loss from c) to 1.4240 (breakeven).

etc.

Now you just let your trades run their course. If your stop losses get hit you walk away with a) 40 pips, b) 20 pips, c) breakeven or better

Has anyone ever tried this and if so did it work?

Damn i just got a headache from trying to remember all this logic while typing...trying not to mess it up....imagine me trying to trade this....lol
If you catch a huge trend, fine. Otherwise, you have a chance to kick yourself every 20 pips. A high percentage of the times I've set my sights on those big moves, I ended up with a loss.

Also, if you're looking to catch a move like that, usually you'd have a wide stop because it's so likely to hit the 20 s/l at some point before taking the big move. So I would end up with a 30 - 60 pip loss on multiple positions. Or get stopped out EVERY time because I used a 20 pip stop.

Longer term, big moves definitely works for some, but I can say it's set me back months and months trying to learn it, and I watched a majority of trades go from a gain of 10 - 50 pips and turn into a loss.

Check this out: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...9&postcount=35

Man, that really said it all. 5 pips turned me into a winning trader. Swing trades were at a loss and could wipe out my whole week. Didn't know if I could learn it. Wow.

Maybe I have it straight now, after needlessly going through 4 more months of bigger and bigger losses.

Whatever it takes to learn the lesson, that's what it takes. Months, years, it's an individual thing.
  • #230
  • Oct 27, 2007 8:35pm Oct 27, 2007 8:35pm
Quoting DXTrade
Interesting thread.
Opinions bouncing against each other like a religion.
You need to trade YOUR way of trading. Both approaches have their reasons, and if it's only the personal temperament.

I tried to combine the two (+10 pips and +100 pips) by splitting my trade size by three. Yes, it has been said already, I know... by taking my profits partly I reduce the total profit, but thats how I like it.

I exit my 1st 1/3 of my lot size at +20 and move my initial 30 SL to +1. The second TP is +40 for the 2nd 1/3 and my SL is moved to +20. The 3rd TP is +60.
That gives me an average cleaned pip profit per trade of about 15-30 pips per trade.
1st scenario:
price never hits +20 and goes back=-30
2nd scenario:
price goes to +20 and then back down: +20 +1 +1 (22/3)=+7
3rd scenario
price goes to +40 and then back down: +20 +40 +20 (80/3)=+27
4th scenario
price goes to +60: +20 +40 +60 (120/3)=+40

For the slow pairs (EUR/USD) is set the TPs to +15 +30 +50 with SL at -25

I might miss on big moves, but I very rarely hit my SL of -30. Most trades go at least to +20... and I'm safe for the rest of the trade. And this gives me a huge security and self confidence, and I'm not watching my trade for hours being scared of reversals.

Just my 2 pips worth
Small addition: I just enter my trade and let an EA managing the rest. This EA is somewhere here on FF. This is taking my emotions, fear and greed completely out of the equation. I wait for the alignment in my trade setup, hit the trigger, and then I go to the beach.

Quoting thepunisher
I think this will won't work during ranging markets, but might work during a strong breakout where price makes a clean break of a round number goes up at least by 50 pips. But those are rare nowadays. More likely one would be lucky to get 20 pips on average out of this. Not to mention expenses on spread and some brokers like IBFX increase spread sometimes on breakouts
I'm definitely happy with +20 pips/day... although I know some who will call me nuts. I'm seeing lots of posts in some forums from people throwing around with monthly pip results in the 4 digit area. makes me wonder why they are still posting. With 800-2000 pips per month I would definitely not spend my time in forex forums.

And trending markets are better, agree. But even during the last 2 strange months - as iandekoker has pointed out - the average daily range for Euro is 101 pips and for cable about 139, to name just two. Enough space to take some 20-50 pips.
"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #231
  • Oct 27, 2007 9:32pm Oct 27, 2007 9:32pm
Quoting iandekoker
Yes one must have a teachable spirit. But also be careful who you learn from......personaly i wouldnt learn from someone who has a smaller account than mine....there is just a big psychological difference between a $100 account and a $100 000 account....but that is just my opinion
that's right but if u have proven system you will trade based on signal ...no matter it's $100 or $100 000 account ...
{Promotion Removed}
  • #232
  • Oct 28, 2007 2:26am Oct 28, 2007 2:26am
Quoting blueruby
If you catch a huge trend, fine. Otherwise, you have a chance to kick yourself every 20 pips. A high percentage of the times I've set my sights on those big moves, I ended up with a loss.

Also, if you're looking to catch a move like that, usually you'd have a wide stop because it's so likely to hit the 20 s/l at some point before taking the big move. So I would end up with a 30 - 60 pip loss on multiple positions. Or get stopped out EVERY time because I used a 20 pip stop.

Longer term, big moves definitely works for some, but I can say it's set me back months and months trying to learn it, and I watched a majority of trades go from a gain of 10 - 50 pips and turn into a loss.

Check this out: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...9&postcount=35

Man, that really said it all. 5 pips turned me into a winning trader. Swing trades were at a loss and could wipe out my whole week. Didn't know if I could learn it. Wow.

Maybe I have it straight now, after needlessly going through 4 more months of bigger and bigger losses.

Whatever it takes to learn the lesson, that's what it takes. Months, years, it's an individual thing.
My problem still with this "add a new order every 20 pips" is why not just buy 4 lots to start with?

I did check out your link and all i can say is well done. It brings joy to me so see a fellow trader excited again AND showing profits. So now i can say that only 94% of traders are loosing cause man your part of the 6% that is making money now....lol
  • #233
  • Oct 28, 2007 2:48am Oct 28, 2007 2:48am
Quoting DXTrade
Small addition: I just enter my trade and let an EA managing the rest. This EA is somewhere here on FF. This is taking my emotions, fear and greed completely out of the equation. I wait for the alignment in my trade setup, hit the trigger, and then I go to the beach.



I'm definitely happy with +20 pips/day... although I know some who will call me nuts. I'm seeing lots of posts in some forums from people throwing around with monthly pip results in the 4 digit area. makes me wonder why they are still posting. With 800-2000 pips per month I would definitely not spend my time in forex forums.

And trending markets are better, agree. But even during the last 2 strange months - as iandekoker has pointed out - the average daily range for Euro is 101 pips and for cable about 139, to name just two. Enough space to take some 20-50 pips.
Well you get a lot of bull shitters on this forum. People who make 1000 pips per month. And the go around telling everyone about it. It's all about the pips and not about the dollars they make. But in fact their 1000 pips = $50. And then they have the nerve to call themselves professional traders. Or you get the newest fashion here on FF. Certain traders can now be classified as 1KT. But still they are ones jumping from one system to the other. Following religiously everyone who has a "new system".

But you are right. Why would someone who makes so many pips every months spend most of their time on a forex forum? Maybe it is for the same reason you find so many "Trading Systems" for sell on the internet. The only way the owner of this trading system is gonna make money with it, is when he sells his system to others. Because in itself the system is not gonna make him money with forex.
  • #234
  • Oct 28, 2007 5:47am Oct 28, 2007 5:47am
Quoting iandekoker
My problem still with this "add a new order every 20 pips" is why not just buy 4 lots to start with?

I did check out your link and all i can say is well done. It brings joy to me so see a fellow trader excited again AND showing profits. So now i can say that only 94% of traders are loosing cause man your part of the 6% that is making money now....lol

This is a system Jesse livermore talk about ...

If you are correct in your market analysis, then why not add into the winning trade, ONCE it is proven you are right.
  • #235
  • Oct 28, 2007 9:55am Oct 28, 2007 9:55am
Quoting Syafi
If you are correct in your market analysis, then why not add into the winning trade, ONCE it is proven you are right.
There is a large discussion going on in another thread about how much to risk. No one seems to have mentioned this yet. They talk about risking 20% on the initial stop loss, which is sheer stupidity. However, once the trade goes your way, ramp up the risk and be ready to liquidate at the first sign that the trade idea is going south on you. It's the only way to risk larger amounts and stay in the game long term.
  • #236
  • Oct 28, 2007 12:32pm Oct 28, 2007 12:32pm
Quoting Dopey
There is a large discussion going on in another thread about how much to risk. No one seems to have mentioned this yet. They talk about risking 20% on the initial stop loss, which is sheer stupidity. However, once the trade goes your way, ramp up the risk and be ready to liquidate at the first sign that the trade idea is going south on you. It's the only way to risk larger amounts and stay in the game long term.
If they talk about risking 20% of your account on an initial stop loss then i am about to shit my pants...lol
  • #237
  • Oct 28, 2007 1:06pm Oct 28, 2007 1:06pm
Very first post on FF. I started demo'ing in Aug. of 2006. Backed off 'till June of this year. Went live in September with $1,500.00 (thought I knew what the hell I was doing). Balance of real account currently stands at $1,387.67. I know two things: 1) I do NOT want to be one of the 95%'ers and 2) I don't know sh*t.

The discourse, advice and banter on this thread and the many others I have read in the last 2 weeks is nothing short of outstanding. I'm not going to pretend that I can "add to" this or any thread right now. I just wanted to pop my head up and say "hello to all" and I'm glad you ALL are here for my own selfish purposes of determining what kind of trader I will be, what kind of trading methods I will use that best suits me and adhere to MM that makes sense to me.

Finally, thanks for paving the road towards happy destiny for me and mine.

SeerEye
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #238
  • Oct 28, 2007 5:04pm Oct 28, 2007 5:04pm
Quoting SeerEye
Very first post on FF. I started demo'ing in Aug. of 2006. Backed off 'till June of this year. Went live in September with $1,500.00 (thought I knew what the hell I was doing). Balance of real account currently stands at $1,387.67. I know two things: 1) I do NOT want to be one of the 95%'ers and 2) I don't know sh*t.

The discourse, advice and banter on this thread and the many others I have read in the last 2 weeks is nothing short of outstanding. I'm not going to pretend that I can "add to" this or any thread right now. I just wanted to pop my head up and say "hello to all" and I'm glad you ALL are here for my own selfish purposes of determining what kind of trader I will be, what kind of trading methods I will use that best suits me and adhere to MM that makes sense to me.

Finally, thanks for paving the road towards happy destiny for me and mine.

SeerEye
I wish you the best of trading. Learn as much as you can. And with time you will become a good trader.
  • #239
  • Oct 28, 2007 5:07pm Oct 28, 2007 5:07pm
Quoting Syafi
This is a system Jesse livermore talk about ...

If you are correct in your market analysis, then why not add into the winning trade, ONCE it is proven you are right.
I think this is a great idea if you are trading 60min and up charts, trying to catch major trends that you hold for a long time.

It's not a technique that works good with scalping or intraday trading. I think the best bet is to use your full lot amount and scale out.
  • #240
  • Oct 28, 2007 5:31pm Oct 28, 2007 5:31pm
Did you learn to drive in a race car - with no helmet and no seat belt? Or did you start with a bicycle, then bumper cars and maybe a go cart? The FX is the professionals race track - big dogs with big money. Open a $2,000 account with a discount stock broker that allows options trading and learn how to do simple spreads. Try a straddle on the DIA. Think it's going up next month, try a Bull Call spread. Think it's going down, do a Bear Put spread. Don't know - try an Iron Butterfly. Don't have any idea what these are - go to the (OCC) options clearing website and read up. There is more education free on the web than you can read in the next six months. (And NO - I am not in any way associated with these folks.) Still want to trade forex - there are futures that trade parallel 24/6 (nearly) and these have options (maybe not 24/6 - NY not, Globex maybe?). There are real brokers that place your trade for a commission and don't take the opposite side of your trade. Spread on globex is 1(-2) pip. Some brokers $10/roundturn. Breakeven is 1(-2) pip. Baby Steps! ... OR ... take the opposite of James's or Iandekoker's trade - they could use a little Christmas money - couldn't you guys.
0 traders viewing now