Now I know why 95% of traders are on losing side | Page 11 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Why are most retail traders usually on the wrong side of the market? 405 replies

Do you know a system to stop over losing in the same day? 13 replies

DD "taking opposite side of trade" explain why this is bad? 5 replies

Why the need for side scroll. w/ diff. time per. 1 reply

Attachments: Now I know why 95% of traders are on losing side
Exit Attachments

Now I know why 95% of traders are on losing side

  • #201
  • Oct 25, 2007 1:49pm Oct 25, 2007 1:49pm
[quote=Serega;1679089]
Quoting iandekoker
So shall we agree that you are your own best indicator then?[/quote

A list of rules just help me earn money and to make less mistakes.
By the way to talk about best indicator it would be very stupid from my side. I think no one may say that he is a best indicator, because markets always change

May be i just say in wrong way, and coudn't explain the idea i wanted. Thats because of my broken english. I try to explain one more. I mean, that most traders use the same TA instrumets, and to read about them in a book its one thing, but its better when someone who trade successfully explain how it work it another one.
All i am trying to say is that even though you might use certain indicators you as a person must still pull the trigger on every trade. You indicators cannot pull the trigger, they can just help you make an "informed" decision
  • #202
  • Oct 25, 2007 3:38pm Oct 25, 2007 3:38pm
The problems I think most beginners face is using way too many indicators. I've seen charts that have more lines on them than my 4 year old is capable of drawing.

Humans have a funny way of needing/wanting to make things complicated to make ourselves appear like we're some sort of genius to our peers for being able to make sense of it. When the reality is, trading is simple.

The fact that there is so many indicators available should be evidence enough that they don't work. It's amazing to see all the threads with people writing those studies for MT.

Throw them all away, learn to read candles with simple sup/res and some fibs, and you'll be way ahead. Price can only move in 3 directions - up, down and sideways. If you can't determine which of the three it's doing without relying on gizmos, trading will always be a struggle.
  • #203
  • Oct 26, 2007 1:04am Oct 26, 2007 1:04am
Quoting bugscoe
The problems I think most beginners face is using way too many indicators. I've seen charts that have more lines on them than my 4 year old is capable of drawing.

Lol. Well put

Humans have a funny way of needing/wanting to make things complicated to make ourselves appear like we're some sort of genius to our peers for being able to make sense of it. When the reality is, trading is simple.

Yes i have seen some charts that only a rocket scientist can read

The fact that there is so many indicators available should be evidence enough that they don't work. It's amazing to see all the threads with people writing those studies for MT.

Couldnt agree more

Throw them all away, learn to read candles with simple sup/res and some fibs, and you'll be way ahead. Price can only move in 3 directions - up, down and sideways. If you can't determine which of the three it's doing without relying on gizmos, trading will always be a struggle.
I agree. You can go far with only playing Engulfments, Haramis, and Hammers/Hanging Men candlesticks. I also love my fibs and pivot point.
  • #204
  • Oct 26, 2007 6:29am Oct 26, 2007 6:29am
Quoting bugscoe
The problems I think most beginners face is using way too many indicators. I've seen charts that have more lines on them than my 4 year old is capable of drawing.

Humans have a funny way of needing/wanting to make things complicated to make ourselves appear like we're some sort of genius to our peers for being able to make sense of it. When the reality is, trading is simple.

The fact that there is so many indicators available should be evidence enough that they don't work. It's amazing to see all the threads with people writing those studies for MT.

Throw them all away, learn to read candles with simple sup/res and some fibs, and you'll be way ahead. Price can only move in 3 directions - up, down and sideways. If you can't determine which of the three it's doing without relying on gizmos, trading will always be a struggle.
trading is simple - that's 100% truth. People make it difficult in their heads
  • #205
  • Oct 26, 2007 6:48am Oct 26, 2007 6:48am
Quoting Serega
trading is simple - that's 100% truth. People make it difficult in their heads
You are right!

For months I've been telling people that it's the hardest thing in the world to learn. After all, there is no other game where 90% fail and fail until they finally quit. That was just an excuse to lose. And guess what? It got harder and harder for me and I lost more and more.

Now I just say that it's actually very easy. Very simple. That is a much better mindset and I am doing much better.

edit. Hey, I just noticed, I'm up to 500 posts!
  • #206
  • Oct 26, 2007 8:40am Oct 26, 2007 8:40am
Quoting blueruby
You are right!

For months I've been telling people that it's the hardest thing in the world to learn. After all, there is no other game where 90% fail and fail until they finally quit. That was just an excuse to lose. And guess what? It got harder and harder for me and I lost more and more.

Now I just say that it's actually very easy. Very simple. That is a much better mindset and I am doing much better.

edit. Hey, I just noticed, I'm up to 500 posts!
So what brought about the change?

Lemme guess....you just adjusted your take profit targets????
  • #207
  • Oct 26, 2007 8:53am Oct 26, 2007 8:53am
Quoting iandekoker
So what brought about the change?

Lemme guess....you just adjusted your take profit targets????
1. Was generously given a system that fits my personality.
2. Had a talk with my mentor.
3. Still battling with that profit targets thing
  • #208
  • Oct 26, 2007 9:13am Oct 26, 2007 9:13am
Quoting blueruby
1. Was generously given a system that fits my personality.
2. Had a talk with my mentor.
3. Still battling with that profit targets thing
well here is something that Rob Booker once gave me. It's called the 10 pip principle.

If you can make 10 pips per day.
There are 20 trading days.

Then it's 10 pips x 20 trading days = 200 pips per month

Now if you trade $1 lots it is 200 pips x $1 = $200 per month
Now if you trade $10 lots it is 200 pips x $10 = $2000 per month
Now if you trade $100 lots it is 200 pips x $100= $20 000 per month

Makes you think....doesn't it......and all you need is 10 pips per day
  • #209
  • Oct 26, 2007 9:56am Oct 26, 2007 9:56am
Quoting iandekoker
well here is something that Rob Booker once gave me. It's called the 10 pip principle.

If you can make 10 pips per day.
There are 20 trading days.

Then it's 10 pips x 20 trading days = 200 pips per month

Now if you trade $1 lots it is 200 pips x $1 = $200 per month
Now if you trade $10 lots it is 200 pips x $10 = $2000 per month
Now if you trade $100 lots it is 200 pips x $100= $20 000 per month

Makes you think....doesn't it......and all you need is 10 pips per day
Rather good mathematics. But is it really easy to make 10 pip per day in real trading? We counted positive trades. And what about minus?

One day you have +10, second -20, third again+10. What then? All the account is broken? It seems to me its hard to make such an account alive
  • #210
  • Oct 26, 2007 11:31am Oct 26, 2007 11:31am
Iandekoker, you said a while back:

My conclusion was this: In 99% of the cases i was showing a 1-5 pip profit within 1 minute. In 1% of the cases i never showed any profit and my trade resulted in a loss. In 70% of the cases did I NOT hit my 50 pips target. In only 30% of the cases did i hit my 50 pips target. So i would rather take my chances with the 99% success rate.

Seriously?! You show a profit within 1 minute 99% of the time (taking account of the spread)? If I could, I'd also trade for 5 pips profit and be moonwalking to the bank every week. Which if your figures are correct, I guess you already do

That's why people go for a longer timeframes - that kind of accuracy is freaky.
  • #211
  • Oct 26, 2007 1:54pm Oct 26, 2007 1:54pm
Quoting Serega
Rather good mathematics. But is it really easy to make 10 pip per day in real trading? We counted positive trades. And what about minus?

One day you have +10, second -20, third again+10. What then? All the account is broken? It seems to me its hard to make such an account alive

To answer your question go have a look at my trading journal. i havent had a loosing trade all week. Actually i havent had a losing trade in a few months.

Maybe it is because i only look for 5 pip winners. And i do up to 10 such trades a day.

So yes it is very easy to make 10 pips a day...if i can do it then anyone can do it....
  • #212
  • Oct 26, 2007 2:35pm Oct 26, 2007 2:35pm
Quoting triphop
Iandekoker, you said a while back:

My conclusion was this: In 99% of the cases i was showing a 1-5 pip profit within 1 minute. In 1% of the cases i never showed any profit and my trade resulted in a loss. In 70% of the cases did I NOT hit my 50 pips target. In only 30% of the cases did i hit my 50 pips target. So i would rather take my chances with the 99% success rate.

Seriously?! You show a profit within 1 minute 99% of the time (taking account of the spread)? If I could, I'd also trade for 5 pips profit and be moonwalking to the bank every week. Which if your figures are correct, I guess you already do

That's why people go for a longer timeframes - that kind of accuracy is freaky.
Do a little experiment when the markets open again next week. See how many of your loosing trades show initial profit before turning against you and hit your stop loss. Almost 80-90% of your trades will show an initial profit.

I know i can speak from experience. I used to enter a trade and wait for my 100 pips profit target to be hit. Can i tell you how many times the eur/usd has run 99 pips before reversing????? It is amazing.

Then a friend of mine who is NOT a trader told me something valueble even though it took a long time to sink in. He asked me: "What are the odds of getting a 100 pips winner compared to the odds of getting a 50 pip winner and a 20 pip winner and a 10 pip winner and a 1 pip winner?" The odds are heavily in your favor to get a 1 pip winner.

Isn't forex all about getting the odds in your favor?
  • #213
  • Oct 26, 2007 3:04pm Oct 26, 2007 3:04pm
Quoting Serega
Rather good mathematics. But is it really easy to make 10 pip per day in real trading? We counted positive trades. And what about minus?

One day you have +10, second -20, third again+10. What then? All the account is broken? It seems to me its hard to make such an account alive
So right

And I know because I have tried it for 3 months about 1 year ago, and it doesn't work.
  • #214
  • Oct 26, 2007 4:01pm Oct 26, 2007 4:01pm
Guys..Whom are we kidding...trading is difficult and unless we dedicate 5 years of life to it..it ain't gonna be easy..

Its just like bieng a docter or an engineer..nothing is easy in this world....outside of forex..you have to GIVE something like service or product to get back something.....everything had a value attached to it..there is a give and take relationship out there..

BUT here all we are trying to do is just take take take and give back nothing in return..how difficult is that gonna be...people on the other side too are trying to do the same thing...

There is no value attached to what we are doing...its just soo dry...and unworthy off...trading would be next to stealing or close to it...as we never give back any value or service to what we get in return...even with the money we get ..all we will do is...buy a good house, a new car, wife, vacation etc...we never give back anything..we are just TAKERSSSSSS...
  • #215
  • Edited 4:16pm Oct 26, 2007 4:05pm | Edited 4:16pm
Quoting iandekoker
Do a little experiment when the markets open again next week. See how many of your loosing trades show initial profit before turning against you and hit your stop loss. Almost 80-90% of your trades will show an initial profit.

I know i can speak from experience. I used to enter a trade and wait for my 100 pips profit target to be hit. Can i tell you how many times the eur/usd has run 99 pips before reversing????? It is amazing.

Then a friend of mine who is NOT a trader told me something valueble even though it took a long time to sink in. He asked me: "What are the odds of getting a 100 pips winner compared to the odds of getting a 50 pip winner and a 20 pip winner and a 10 pip winner and a 1 pip winner?" The odds are heavily in your favor to get a 1 pip winner.

Isn't forex all about getting the odds in your favor?
I agree 100%.
The longer you are in the market the greater the odds that it will reverse and bite you.

Im getting the message here from a lot of traders that they seem to pick a target number 50,80,100 pips and then go into hope mode.
You must have a reason for your exit. (in my opinion more so than your entry.)
ie.fib levels,support and resistance,pivots etc......

If your looking for a 100 pip target you must have a dam good reason why you think the market is going to go to that level.
  • #216
  • Oct 27, 2007 4:05am Oct 27, 2007 4:05am
Quoting HeavensGate
So right

And I know because I have tried it for 3 months about 1 year ago, and it doesn't work.

I dont want to offend you but if you cannot even make 10 pips per day then trading is probably not for you.

Eur/usd trades between 1.4316 (low) and 1.4393 (high) on friday 26 october. (A range of 77 pips).

Gbp/usd traded between 2.0480 (low) and 2.0571 (high) on friday 26 october. (A range of 91 pips)

Do you wanna tell me that you couldn't even find 10 pips in any of those currencies?

Look at the chart i have attached. You could have made 10 pips by playing the following:

1. Pin Bars
2. Inside Bar
3. Bounce of Midpoint resistance/support level
4. Bounce of 23% fib level
5. Played the ADX trend
6. Played Moving Average Cross over

There was 6 possible ways to trade and they all would have made you 10 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #217
  • Oct 27, 2007 4:07am Oct 27, 2007 4:07am
Quoting spiderforex
Guys..Whom are we kidding...trading is difficult and unless we dedicate 5 years of life to it..it ain't gonna be easy..

Its just like bieng a docter or an engineer..nothing is easy in this world....outside of forex..you have to GIVE something like service or product to get back something.....everything had a value attached to it..there is a give and take relationship out there..

BUT here all we are trying to do is just take take take and give back nothing in return..how difficult is that gonna be...people on the other side too are trying to do the same thing...

There is no value attached to what we are doing...its just soo dry...and unworthy off...trading would be next to stealing or close to it...as we never give back any value or service to what we get in return...even with the money we get ..all we will do is...buy a good house, a new car, wife, vacation etc...we never give back anything..we are just TAKERSSSSSS...
HHHmmm interesting statement. I wanna agree with you in a way. But why you limit it to 5 years? Surely one can learn forex in a few months if dedicated. Or do you not agree?
  • #218
  • Oct 27, 2007 4:12am Oct 27, 2007 4:12am
Quoting threeticks
I agree 100%.
The longer you are in the market the greater the odds that it will reverse and bite you.

Im getting the message here from a lot of traders that they seem to pick a target number 50,80,100 pips and then go into hope mode.
You must have a reason for your exit. (in my opinion more so than your entry.)
ie.fib levels,support and resistance,pivots etc......

If your looking for a 100 pip target you must have a dam good reason why you think the market is going to go to that level.

So why would you say do a lot of traders aim for 50-100 pips if the odds are against them for getting it?

You know what i find mind boggling. Traders playing gbp/jpy. Yes it can give you lots of pips but it is not called the "Green Monster" without a reason. Look on aug 16 how it moved 1000 pips. Damn man i will shit in my pants if i have to play this currency. Sorry but i am just a very conservative trader who loves his eur/usd.....lol
  • #219
  • Oct 27, 2007 4:42am Oct 27, 2007 4:42am
Interesting thread.
Opinions bouncing against each other like a religion.
You need to trade YOUR way of trading. Both approaches have their reasons, and if it's only the personal temperament.

I tried to combine the two (+10 pips and +100 pips) by splitting my trade size by three. Yes, it has been said already, I know... by taking my profits partly I reduce the total profit, but thats how I like it.

I exit my 1st 1/3 of my lot size at +20 and move my initial 30 SL to +1. The second TP is +40 for the 2nd 1/3 and my SL is moved to +20. The 3rd TP is +60.
That gives me an average cleaned pip profit per trade of about 15-30 pips per trade.
1st scenario:
price never hits +20 and goes back=-30
2nd scenario:
price goes to +20 and then back down: +20 +1 +1 (22/3)=+7
3rd scenario
price goes to +40 and then back down: +20 +40 +20 (80/3)=+27
4th scenario
price goes to +60: +20 +40 +60 (120/3)=+40

For the slow pairs (EUR/USD) is set the TPs to +15 +30 +50 with SL at -25

I might miss on big moves, but I very rarely hit my SL of -30. Most trades go at least to +20... and I'm safe for the rest of the trade. And this gives me a huge security and self confidence, and I'm not watching my trade for hours being scared of reversals.

Just my 2 pips worth
"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #220
  • Oct 27, 2007 5:52am Oct 27, 2007 5:52am
Quoting iandekoker
HHHmmm interesting statement. I wanna agree with you in a way. But why you limit it to 5 years? Surely one can learn forex in a few months if dedicated. Or do you not agree?

I would believe to agree with you...BUT there is a time for learning any skill....if we wanna fly an aircraft....there is a minimum period..i think of may be an year or two..no matter how dedicated we are...the teacher will never hand over the keys to us..even if we are number 1 in class...remember Airbus A380 Singapore airlines which recently flew from Singapore to Sydney....it was flown by a pilot with 36 years of experience ...no matter how skillful and surely there must be 100's of other pilots equally good at what they do and they also could have flown it easily...but still the management went with "EXPERIENCE"

People generally do not associate what it really means to be "EXPERIENCED"....Im not sure if we have any profession which require less than an year to learn..

Five years in learning FOREX is fairly ok..considering the complexity and mental adjustment it requires...after five years...you really "BECOME" a forex trader and now consider with being an engineer or a Docter...even after 5 years of learning...you only get to enter the lowest grade and start with being a trainee....


and in FOREX...after 5 years..we can shoot directly for that Million dollar mark and from three years onwards itself..you start converting your skills into profit with occasional losses..and after 5 years you completely become a "PROFESSIONAL TRADER"

We really become a "PROFESSIONAL" in just 5 years..WOW..we are very very lucky to be in FOREX right now..considering we are in our 20's and 30's...rest of our life is gonna be very smoooth indeed ..
0 traders viewing now