15-Minute Time-Based Strategy

Quoting kharvell

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You make a very good point. I think that removing the 480 SMA for entry will create more entries that as you mention, would not be QUITE as safe.

The reasoning for my 480 SMA was so I could have fewer entries that were safer. Also, in this way, I can more easily increase position sizes after losses without worrying about cutting into too much margin.

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Quoting NipthePips

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For example:


I noticed that your TP of 20 pips for EURJPY is about 13% of the average daily range for that pair. (I used ATR(14) on the daily chart to get the average daily range)


So you can apply that same percentage to other pairs...For Example


EURAUD ATR=165 pips 13% of 165 is about 22 pips So TP would be 22, SL would be (according to you 2:1 ratio) would be about 11 pips.



Here are some TP/SL levels I calculated for my favorite pairs that I trade regulary:

EURUSD: TP=10 Pips SL=5 Pips

GBPUSD: TP=15 Pips SL=8 Pips

GBPJPY: TP=30 Pips SL=15 Pips

EURJPY: TP=20 Pips SL=10 Pips

USDCAD: TP=10 Pips SL=5 Pips

EURGBP: TP=5 Pips SL=3 Pips (This pair moves in fractions, if you look at a chart you will notice it actually moves a lot! Each pip is worth more than the average pip too!)

USDJPY: TP=10 Pips SL=5 Pips

EURAUD: TP=22 Pips SL=11 Pips


This is just to throw some ideas out there...I really like ATR, it allows you to dynamically trade your charts, instead of being so static with your decisions...move with the market dont try to make the market move with you

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Quoting NipthePips

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Hmm I see...that what I was thinking by "more safer"....But if you are going to have so few trades, maybe you want to consider optimizing some other fast moving pairs for this method....do I hear EURAUD or EURGBP anyone?

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Quoting Palmer

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Here are the two trades I did last night with the EURSD. The first one gave me about 30 on two lots and the second one gave me 10. The vertical lines were the entries. As soon as the 15 (aqua line) crosses the other ma's I got in. I do look a the 5min to see if the ma's are trending well....

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Quoting Palmer

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I'm not sure why I have that box drawn there. I might have been thinking about something at the time but I don't remember what. As far as the stops go, sort of a floating 10 pip stop. If the 5min is trending (all ma's sloping up or down) and the 15ma on the 1min is the below the 30 and or 45 then breaks above or below ( back to the direction of the 5min trend and closes above or below) that's it I get in. I'm not waiting for the 15min grid to close or re-enter on the next 15min. I've been using this purely for scalping 6, 7, or 8 pips. That EURJPY does seem to take off at times. I've been entering two positions and when one hit 6, 7, or 8 I close that one and move the other position to b/e. Gotta be quick on this. I've never really looked or traded the 1min or 5min with any success, until now. But, I did this about 10 times last week and didn't lose one trade.

First of all, I'm really glad that you have been so successful! 10 wins in a row is impressive considering you are new to scalping.. great job. Thanks for getting to answering my questions so soon. My last question for you is whether you have been sticking to high volatility times(i.e. London Open, NY Open, etc.)? I notice that the MA's line up the most during these times.

Using the 5-min chart to confirm the trend is a good idea. Better to hop in an established trend than to try and guess the direction next.

I'm a big follower of Phillip Nel's 4 Hour MACD Strategy. So, I'm always watching what price is doing around those moving averages for that strategy. That's where that floating stop comes in. If there is a signal on his 1hr or 4hr chart I am looking for something to happen and in the even it lines up with the 1min or 5min I just treat that as a long term entry. But, if the current price is nowhere near his ma's I look at the 1min and 5min as a purely scalping entry. I think only one of the trades on the 1min chart coincided with the 4hr charts.

Even though it's a 1min chart I originally thought that you would have to constantly monitor things every single minute to wait for an entry. That's far from the case. It can take a while for all the ma's to start sloping. If things are all wacky I just glance at the chart every 15 or 30 minutes or hour and walk away if it doesn't look good. I'm 90% there about being patient for set-ups on the 4hr chart. Even on the 1min chart being patient is just as critical. I'm new to scalping and I don't know which pairs to stay away from so please fill me in on those. I'll post some charts later...gotta run.

Very true. The idea when I thought of putting all these MA's on was to ensure that a trend exists. It usually takes a while for all the MA's to line up, and you should go relax if they are scrambled. The answer to your question for scalping is sort of easy to me: LOW SPREAD pairs. Spread will be one of your worst enemies as a scalper as it's usually a quarter(or more/less) of your profits

Kevin:

This is all my 2 cents here and I don't want to take anything away from your original idea. I really don't want to start a 'sub-thread' because I'm too involved with Phillip's strategy. Since this is 'your' thread and if you would like for me to keep posting here, I could just title the posts as "Scalp Entry" to let people know that it is not the 15min scaled entry....Let me know.

Hey man, I'm here to learn and make money, not worry about whether people like my ideas. If you've got something that works better, which I think you do, takeover! I'll help you out. I'm pretty sure I got the gist of it. Time-based entry was just an idea that helped you make a better idea. I encourage you to keep posting examples and your trades. I would like to get a little more live action in here, where we post potential set-ups.

Thanks again,

Kevin

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Quoting Palmer

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Mainly the morning NY session from about 7am to noon. I did notice that last week's news events were rather non-eventful so things were rather 'steady' on the longer term charts. This week there is a lot of news due to come out and you know what that means before and after the release. So, I'm going to wait for the dust to settle before I start looking at 1min and 5min chart. Waaaay to much noise.

What I would like to be able to nail down is to recognize the fact that when the 5min has given a signal (trend develops) and when the 1min comes back below the 15 and closes above it, get in there and add to positions along the way and trail the stops. But, you never know how long things will last on the 5min. So, maybe move things to b/e or really tight on the 1min after the first entry and wait and see. This is only a 5min trend but you have to think that these setups happen every day. If you could pull off a few of these a week and be on the plus side at the end of the week...that'd be all guuude duuuude....

I'm going to start looking at the individual trading sessions to see how this looks. Here is the 5min and 1min chart that shows what I'm talking about. Also, this indicator lets you highlight the session times...

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Quoting brainjt

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on eur jpn today, nice Kevin

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I need to re-state something...I previously said that I was never successful scalping the markets "until now". That was a little premature there. One week does not make for a successful trading plan. I'll wait a good month for this. But, I can't monitor things all through the NY session so I don't have the ability to watch for every signal either. Sooooo, lots more to do either way. Keep an eye on the calendar this week...gonna be crazy!