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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #2,221
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:56pm Oct 19, 2007 3:56pm
Quoting mirdaniel
Excuse my english (french), backwardation? Why is it relevant?
Info here and here.

Quote
Why twice volume on CLZ7?
Twice the volume on Dec because Nov contract expires on Monday. Many firms won't let you trade an expiring contract within a certain time from expiration, so most traders have shifted over to the Dec contract.
  • #2,222
  • Oct 19, 2007 4:16pm Oct 19, 2007 4:16pm
LOL

I don't believe this thread is still called USDCAD trend reversal

Since then, it's hard to find a bullish week here
Attached Image
  • #2,223
  • Oct 24, 2007 10:07am Oct 24, 2007 10:07am
even an experienced trader like me who is also at such a high position at FED,

I really can not figure this out.

0.96 is likely
  • #2,224
  • Oct 24, 2007 7:35pm Oct 24, 2007 7:35pm
The downtrend definitely seems to be flattening out, but it may make it below .96 before turning around.

There's seems to be more activity recently as well, which makes me think the bulls may be sniffing around.

~X~
  • #2,225
  • Oct 26, 2007 2:59am Oct 26, 2007 2:59am
theres no way this thing can go any lower... its gonna mess up the economy and some major business operating in canada and the US. it went down way to fast... Anyone agree?
  • #2,226
  • Oct 26, 2007 4:20am Oct 26, 2007 4:20am
Quoting cesarnc
LOL

I don't believe this thread is still called USDCAD trend reversal

Since then, it's hard to find a bullish week here

Yeah the more we think its gonna go up..the more it goes down...i think its just the fear in us that we have made big position in down and if it goes up..we gonna loose it out...after 365 days..still the market would be down and we be counting trend reversal
  • #2,227
  • Oct 26, 2007 7:34am Oct 26, 2007 7:34am
Till end of 2007 i expect to tuch major support level 0.9230/50
Why - watch clossly oil and gold.There targets is about 100$ brent , and 850$ gold.
  • #2,228
  • Oct 28, 2007 6:36am Oct 28, 2007 6:36am
Quoting Pk69
Till end of 2007 i expect to tuch major support level 0.9230/50
Why - watch clossly oil and gold.There targets is about 100$ brent , and 850$ gold.
If U.S sanction continues on Iran and goes as far as banning exportation of crudeoil and its associated products frm Iran, which is the major determinant of Iran economy; then we may see usd/cad goes down more and more. But we are looking forward for a stronger USD if dat does not hold. Even Fed may still cut rate!
  • #2,229
  • Oct 28, 2007 7:34am Oct 28, 2007 7:34am
And yet with predicitons of much igher heating costs this winter, and oil prices zooming up... where else can the USD/CAD go ??? DOWN !!!


Quoting turk87
theres no way this thing can go any lower... its gonna mess up the economy and some major business operating in canada and the US. it went down way to fast... Anyone agree?
  • #2,230
  • Oct 28, 2007 7:37am Oct 28, 2007 7:37am
96 ??? Been there, done that...!!! how about 90 ???


Quoting Bernanke_Sr
even an experienced trader like me who is also at such a high position at FED,

I really can not figure this out.

0.96 is likely
  • #2,231
  • Oct 28, 2007 11:51am Oct 28, 2007 11:51am
Quoting Tiki Trader
And yet with predicitons of much igher heating costs this winter, and oil prices zooming up... where else can the USD/CAD go ??? DOWN !!!


Except the current forecasts are calling for a mild winter. That will impact demand and thus price.

~X~
  • #2,232
  • Oct 28, 2007 12:54pm Oct 28, 2007 12:54pm
The monthly chart of USD_CAD suggests we are in Wave 5 of a downtrend
on the monthly chart with a minimum target around the .86 level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,233
  • Oct 28, 2007 4:19pm Oct 28, 2007 4:19pm
Just throwing out some thoughts, while I do not believe that the underlying issues that have caused the current trend are gone I do believe that we are at a point technically for a correction or range pause.

As shown on the weekly, Price had broken a supporting (red) trend line, and now is sitting at the bottom median, of two, the larger weekly (purple) and smaller (white) pitchforks in conjunction with a broken retest of the (aqua) trend line, which held resistance for a long time, even farther back than this chart shows.

Zooming in on the 4rh, we see price has formed a nice descending wedge at the bottom of a channel, the purple line is the larger fork shown on the 1st pic, the other lines are not drawn on this chart. The gray shaded boxes show some longer tails in this area, which would denote some buyers coming in here.

One could wait for the breakout of the current wedge, or long the retest of that broken line, also watch for a false break of the bottom like an reverse exhaustion spike off the bottom channel.

Price should retrace back to the broken red trend line shown on the weekly, but look for the ride to be bumpy as those other lines that are shown come into play as price moves east, as the south bound train will try and pick up riders at those areas.

Fwiw,
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,234
  • Oct 28, 2007 4:47pm Oct 28, 2007 4:47pm
Quoting cesarnc
LOL

I don't believe this thread is still called USDCAD trend reversal

Since then, it's hard to find a bullish week here

╔╗╔═╦╗
║╚╣║║╚╗
╚═╩═╩═╝


SO TRUE!!!
  • #2,235
  • Nov 1, 2007 11:06pm Nov 1, 2007 11:06pm


you know what.... I'm seeing early signs of a trend reversal... it's still far from anything really so nothing confirmed as of yet
  • #2,236
  • Nov 1, 2007 11:12pm Nov 1, 2007 11:12pm
Without Predjudice.

What signs are you seeing?
  • #2,237
  • Nov 1, 2007 11:25pm Nov 1, 2007 11:25pm
Quoting MoForce
you know what.... I'm seeing early signs of a trend reversal... it's still far from anything really so nothing confirmed as of yet
I can see you've studied the language of ambiguity. If you are proven correct, please come back and speak boastfully of your post, we will surround you with praise. If wrong, simply whistle & forget the claim was ever made, we'll do the same.
  • #2,238
  • Nov 2, 2007 12:06am Nov 2, 2007 12:06am
Quoting Trader KGB
I can see you've studied the language of ambiguity. If you are proven correct, please come back and speak boastfully of your post, we will surround you with praise. If wrong, simply whistle & forget the claim was ever made, we'll do the same.
lol nice one! Basically, we got strong support at 0.9484 which is a 261.8% fib level and there hasn't been a break of that level yet... OIL is almost $100/barrel (currently mid 90s)... USD/CAD bounced off of a major trendline starting from when the downtrend started... and the list goes on

As you can see nothing is confirmed and the longer USD/CAD is at these low levels and other vars continue the stronger the possibility of reversal. I'm definitely not gonna go against the trend until a proper break happens anyway, but I'll have to pay closer attention to this pair and the vars affecting it
  • #2,239
  • Nov 2, 2007 2:22pm Nov 2, 2007 2:22pm
Hi, i was just looking the forexfactory forum, i look it everyday, and everyday i see the thread "USDCAD trend reversal?"

I think the correct answer is: NO!!!!
:°D

Sorry for the stupid post, have a nice trading
  • #2,240
  • Nov 2, 2007 3:03pm Nov 2, 2007 3:03pm
well I'm not saying there will be a reversal right now, but there are signs of one coming soon...nothing major though and still no confirmation

Oil is inching its way to 100... currently 96
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