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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #43,481
  • Oct 23, 2007 9:43pm Oct 23, 2007 9:43pm
Just closed my short for a meagre profit as it bounced off this trend line which has been significant the last few days. This could provide an opportunity to get in at a better price if/when the drop that the daily momentum suggests occurs. Listen out for the alarms!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bounce off trendline.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #43,482
  • Oct 23, 2007 9:45pm Oct 23, 2007 9:45pm
Quoting my2buoys
Yo, Lep, just out of curiosity, what happened to the last regression chart you posted? I think you said the regression was showing price going down to 232.50 or so before bouncing back up. I'm not being critical, I honestly want to know what happened to that chart.

M2B
Should be still posted, thing about regression lines is that they move alot when new candles open. The longer the timeframe the more accurate. I really like them on daily and weekly TF and 4hr is as low as I go using it.

I still use a bastardized version of Auslanco's system for the majority of my trades. I use the regression indicator for swing type trades since its on such a long time frame.
  • #43,483
  • Oct 23, 2007 9:48pm Oct 23, 2007 9:48pm
Quoting lepiricus
Should be still posted, thing about regression lines is that they move alot when new candles open. The longer the timeframe the more accurate. I really like them on daily and weekly TF and 4hr is as low as I go using it.

I still use a bastardized version of Auslanco's system for the majority of my trades. I use the regression indicator for swing type trades since its on such a long time frame.
Thanks, bro. I knew where the post was. I was just wondering why it was no longer valid since you were now showing a move up to 236 instead of a move down to 232.50.

M2B
  • #43,484
  • Oct 23, 2007 9:50pm Oct 23, 2007 9:50pm
Here is a regression chart of daily TF with some fib retracements tossed in. We had a perfect 50% retrace from the move down already and a bounce of the 3rd sigma line. This day should end in a big bear candle if regression is right and the fibs support it also. But like I've said before I think overall the week is a bull however.

Please, nobody trade on this. Its purely academic.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #43,485
  • Oct 23, 2007 9:53pm Oct 23, 2007 9:53pm
We just had a small bounce off of the 1H 100SMA. I'm not concerned about it. I think the real reason it bounced even as much as it did was because the 15M and 30M charts are OS again and have to work themselves out of it.

M2B
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 1h.gif Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 15m.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #43,486
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:03pm Oct 23, 2007 10:03pm
Aus

I regret to inform that My actual balance is $ 0.00 LOL

God Pips to All

Pepe
  • #43,487
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:06pm Oct 23, 2007 10:06pm
Quoting privatefr
Aus

I regret to inform that My actual balance is $ 0.00 LOL

God Pips to All

Pepe
You blew your acocunt?
  • #43,488
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:06pm Oct 23, 2007 10:06pm
when i see h4 OB and bearish divergence on h1, i am looking to short on a reversal pattern (on h1, and usually around a fib level from the previous swing).

Quoting my2buoys
You're correct. It's also showing on the 15M and, more importantly, the 1H. The 1H is inverted bearish divergence which is a sign of continuing bearishness as opposed to reversal. One other thing, we just completed a bullish divergence move on the 4H chart (second chart below). Price moved up 600 pips (from 230 to 236). 4H is now overbought and threatening to turn down on Stochastics. Though there is no bearish divergence showing on 4H presently, these other factors support a move down.

M2B
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #43,489
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:09pm Oct 23, 2007 10:09pm
it was Aus, not me...it is his Managed Account LOL LOL

I was just joking...Oanda platform is not working.... Aus is up 10% not down, but it is true that the balance I am seeing is $ 0.

Good Pips to All

Pepe
  • #43,490
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:12pm Oct 23, 2007 10:12pm
Quoting my2buoys
We just had a small bounce off of the 1H 100SMA. I'm not concerned about it. I think the real reason it bounced even as much as it did was because the 15M and 30M charts are OS again and have to work themselves out of it.

M2B
M2B, by quoting this here, are you saying it is having a good chance to work it self into downward movement, just that the indications are not all there yet? (learning)

Thanks
  • #43,491
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:26pm Oct 23, 2007 10:26pm
Quoting fxstman
M2B, by quoting this here, are you saying it is having a good chance to work it self into downward movement, just that the indications are not all there yet? (learning)

Thanks
I'm saying that the higher TF's (1H and 4H) are already showing a move down. The smaller TF's (15M and 30M) are oversold and need to work themselves out of that condition. What that means is that we should see some smaller moves up (20 to 40 pips) as buyers pull the lower TF's out of their OS condition. As that happens, sellers should then begin to move the price back down. This is a process that will continue through a slower trending market, as opposed to fast-moving trends where you end up with 200 pip 1H candles. I am already short at 235.40 with a stop at 236.40, which is above the last move high and the 200EMA's which created resistance on a few different TF's. My TP is at 233.40, which is just above the 50 Fib line of the last move up. You need to see a reason for yourself to get into a trade which alllows for a reasonable risk to reward ratio.

M2B

PS- I personally use Stochastics as my OB/OS indicator. Settings at 8,3,3.
  • #43,492
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:39pm Oct 23, 2007 10:39pm
So carry also follows after it, I'm short from 235.06 looking for TP 233.65, MACD and Stochs are pointing downwards on 1H.
  • #43,493
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:40pm Oct 23, 2007 10:40pm
One other tidbit here that I'll thrown in while we wait for the market to get moving. I know that most traders calculate the Daily pivot at the beginning of whatever session they are trading. I know that someone in the thread, maybe Aus, had posted an indicator to help with those calculations. Here's what I have found: the 50EMA on the 30M chart will give you the updated Daily pivot at any point in time throughout the day. Check it out for yourself. It's almost scary. I'm sure it's just a math thing that some other trader on this thread who is good at numbers could explain better than I could.

M2B
  • #43,494
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:40pm Oct 23, 2007 10:40pm
Quoting my2buoys
I'm saying that the higher TF's (1H and 4H) are already showing a move down. The smaller TF's (15M and 30M) are oversold and need to work themselves out of that condition. What that means is that we should see some smaller moves up (20 to 40 pips) as buyers pull the lower TF's out of their OS condition. As that happens, sellers should then begin to move the price back down. This is a process that will continue through a slower trending market, as opposed to fast-moving trends where you end up with 200 pip 1H candles. I am already short at 235.40 with a stop at 236.40, which is above the last move high and the 200EMA's which created resistance on a few different TF's. My TP is at 233.40, which is just above the 50 Fib line of the last move up. You need to see a reason for yourself to get into a trade which alllows for a reasonable risk to reward ratio.

M2B

PS- I personally use Stochastics as my OB/OS indicator. Settings at 8,3,3.
Thanks alot for that reply. I think that is so cool when I can ask a Q to learn and it gets explained as clear as a bell. I think I will try that stochastic you have. what do you of the MACD?
Once again, thanks
  • #43,495
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:44pm Oct 23, 2007 10:44pm
Quoting gtt
So carry also follows after it, I'm short from 235.06 looking for TP 233.65, MACD and Stochs are pointing downwards on 1H.
Wow. Just took a look at the NZD/JPY (which I haven't looked at for months) and it looks very similar to GBP/JPY. Good eye, gtt.

M2B
  • #43,496
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:45pm Oct 23, 2007 10:45pm
Quoting fxstman
Thanks alot for that reply. I think that is so cool when I can ask a Q to learn and it gets explained as clear as a bell. I think I will try that stochastic you have. what do you of the MACD?
Once again, thanks
Default on MACD, which on most platforms should be 12,26,9.
  • #43,497
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:49pm Oct 23, 2007 10:49pm
Quoting my2buoys
Default on MACD, which on most platforms should be 12,26,9.
Cool, Thank you very much!

GLT
  • #43,498
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:51pm Oct 23, 2007 10:51pm
Quoting my2buoys
One other tidbit here that I'll thrown in while we wait for the market to get moving. I know that most traders calculate the Daily pivot at the beginning of whatever session they are trading. I know that someone in the thread, maybe Aus, had posted an indicator to help with those calculations. Here's what I have found: the 50EMA on the 30M chart will give you the updated Daily pivot at any point in time throughout the day. Check it out for yourself. It's almost scary. I'm sure it's just a math thing that some other trader on this thread who is good at numbers could explain better than I could.

M2B
Is yours 234.65 because that is what mine is on my 30min.
  • #43,499
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:53pm Oct 23, 2007 10:53pm
Quoting fxstman
Cool, Thank you very much!

GLT

The standard mt4 one doesn't have the histogram on it for some reason. This one does:
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MACDgoodone.ex4   3 KB | 434 downloads
File Type: mq4 MACDgoodone.mq4   3 KB | 471 downloads
  • #43,500
  • Oct 23, 2007 10:56pm Oct 23, 2007 10:56pm
Quoting birdt
The standard mt4 one doesn't have the histogram on it for some reason. This one does:
Thank You!
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