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Now I know why 95% of traders are on losing side

  • #161
  • Oct 23, 2007 3:38am Oct 23, 2007 3:38am
Quoting djmetric
OMG! I don't know why you would say this Marrethiel?!? Fundamentals are the driving forces behind currencies.
I agree with you especially if you wanna trade usd nowadays. There are so many fundamentals that drives the usd.....and this comes from me who at one stage also thought fundamentals are overrated....but i learned my lesson the hard way....lol
  • #162
  • Oct 23, 2007 3:41am Oct 23, 2007 3:41am
Quoting jest1081
geez was that a snide? What wrong with trading more that one account anyway? Anyway i'm sorry for being all heated up by this but i am kind of a little offended by this remark. Lets keep it to the 'so it works for you, hmm good then' attitude.

kind regards
jest

sorry no offense meant to you. i was just making a joke at my own expense. At one stage i tried to trade 6 currencies but there were just too many things to look out for at one time...but then again i am a little bit slow....lol

i do apologise if my remark offended you
  • #163
  • Oct 23, 2007 3:46am Oct 23, 2007 3:46am
Quoting Marrethiel
Of course they have a big impact but so do speculators, and politicians (imagine some Chinese minister deciding to get rid of a trillion US dollars). I do make note of when the reports occur but don't particularly care which way the move the currencies. I'm happy to make money short or long
If you mean big banks when you say speculators then i agree...but i am sure you would agree that all of us here on FF and other forex forums are not even a drop in the ocean...

ps....oh yes and then Chuck Norris can move a currency by just staring at his computer screen for 5 minutes......and Chuck Norris was behind the subprime crisis cause Chuck Norris dont pay interest on a bank loan.....
  • #164
  • Oct 23, 2007 6:35am Oct 23, 2007 6:35am
Quoting iandekoker
ps....oh yes and then Chuck Norris can move a currency by just staring at his computer screen for 5 minutes......and Chuck Norris was behind the subprime crisis cause Chuck Norris dont pay interest on a bank loan.....
Old Chuck is my friend..... and he did pay the interest..... he is an honest guy........LOL....
  • #165
  • Oct 23, 2007 7:16am Oct 23, 2007 7:16am
Quoting cirebonese
Old Chuck is my friend..... and he did pay the interest..... he is an honest guy........LOL....
Yeah right... Chuck can't make the market move. The Hoff is the one to look out for!
There was a rumor yesterday that the Hoff opened an account with Oanda... hence the dollar rally.
  • #166
  • Edited 8:54pm Oct 23, 2007 7:50am | Edited 8:54pm
"I find it very interesting to read all the responses on this thread. Guess i am fighting a loosing battle to help traders see there are more constant profitable opportunities in 5 pip profits than in larger ones...." - Landekoker

I was hoping to make it to the end of the thread before commenting, but my title says it all.

First of all, everybody is entitled to trade in any manner that is successful for them. If Landekoker can win 90+% of his trades, he'll make money. But that's a pretty tough task to do consistently - not to mention that it sounds very time consuming. But if it works, great. It's not my cup of tea, however.

In general terms (so don't take it personally, Landekoker), going for 5 pips with a significantly negative risk/reward ratio is a losing strategy that's "discovered" by nearly everybody who's new to Forex, including myself.

But as I read and learned over the years I moved beyond that point and I believe that the vast, vast majority of successful traders have done likewise.

At what point do you quit declaring victory at 5 pips - when you can clearly see that prices routinely move 25, 50 or even hundreds of pips?

Once you've changed your mindset, you'll come to see the old 5/20 ratio to be little more than the noise of the market. In fact, it's barely breathing room - plus you can get spiked for a needless loss at any moment. And when you need to win 90% of your trades - that's not a game for newcomers.

My technique only has about a 25% success rate. But my winners are historically up to six times larger than my losers, since I never risk more than 1% of my account balance on a single trade.

My technique also gives me a chance for my favorite Forex moment - when the chart view has to change due to a dramatic movement in price. You'll NEVER get that thrill by shooting for 5 pips.

I'm not at liberty to give away the "11 herbs and spices" that make my technique work. But I can give you the chicken, the flour and the oil that will get you cooking. Then you can come up with your own special recipe.

Slap a 20, 50 and 200 period moving average on a chart. I prefer an EMA, Close. I DO NOT simply trade the cross of any of those MA's. But you will see that the world respects those numbers - almost regardless of time-frame!

Use your own personal knowledge and creativity to make them work for you. Then refine your approach a few times. They are excellent tools to work from.

And DO NOT be fooled by the old "they're lagging indicators" line. That claim is absurd to somebody who really knows how to work those assets.

I trade six pair, from 16 different set-ups across multiple time-frames. And to free up my time, it's all run from a single, customizable EA - with me adding the human touch to mid-term and long-term winners.

One last note - on the Daily charts, I only trade in an interest-positive direction since I hate paying interest and there's plenty of action at the lower time-frames.

So I hope this helps somebody who's reading this thread and still trying to sort things out along the way to developing a personal winning strategy.

Give it a try. I think you'll like it.

Good luck!
  • #167
  • Oct 23, 2007 8:32am Oct 23, 2007 8:32am
Quoting djmetric
Yeah right... Chuck can't make the market move. The Hoff is the one to look out for!
There was a rumor yesterday that the Hoff opened an account with Oanda... hence the dollar rally.
Lol...did he open a $1 account and after 5 minutes he had an account balance of $100 000?
  • #168
  • Oct 23, 2007 8:41am Oct 23, 2007 8:41am
Quoting brentmack
"I find it very interesting to read all the responses on this thread. Guess i am fighting a loosing battle to help traders see there are more constant profitable opportunities in 5 pip profits than in larger ones...." - Landekoker

I was hoping to make it to the end of the thread before commenting, but my title says it all.

First of all, everybody is entitled to trade in any manner that is successful for them. If Landekoker can win 90+% of his trades, he'll make money. But that's a pretty tough task to do consistently - not to mention that it sounds very time consuming. But if it works, great. It's not my cup of tea, however.

In general terms (so don't take it personally, Landekoker), going for 5 pips with a significantly negative risk/reward ratio is a losing strategy that's "discovered" by nearly everybody who's new to Forex, including myself.

But as I read and learned over the years I moved beyond that point and I believe that the vast, vast majority of successful traders have likewise done.

At what point do you quit declaring victory at 5 pips - when you can clearly see that prices routinely move 25, 50 or even hundreds of pips?

Once you've changed your mindset, you'll come to see the old 5/20 ratio to be little more than the noise of the market. In fact, it's barely breathing room - plus you can get spiked for a needless loss at any moment. And when you need to win 90% of your trades - that's not a game for newcomers.

My technique only has about a 25% success rate. But my winners are historically six times larger than my losers, since I never risk more than 1% of my account balance on a single trade.

My technique also gives me a chance for my favorite Forex moment - when the chart view has to change due to a dramatic movement in price. You'll NEVER get that thrill by shooting for 5 pips.

I'm not at liberty to give away the "11 herbs and spices" that make my technique work. But I can give you the chicken, the flour and the oil that will get you cooking. Then you can come up with your own special recipe.

Slap a 20, 50 and 200 period moving average on a chart. I prefer an EMA, Close. I DO NOT simply trade the cross of any of those MA's. But you will see that the world respects those numbers - almost regardless of time-frame!

Use your own personal knowledge and creativity to make them work for you. Then refine your approach a few times. They are excellent tools to work from.

And DO NOT be fooled by the old "they're lagging indicators" line. That claim is absurd to somebody who really knows how to work those assets.

I trade six pair, from 16 different set-ups across multiple time-frames. And to free up my time, it's all ran from a single, customizable EA - with me adding the human touch to mid-term and long-term winners.

One last note - on the Daily charts, I only trade in an interest-positive direction since I hate paying interest and there's plenty of action at the lower time-frames.

So I hope this helps somebody who's reading this thread and still trying to sort things out along to the way to developing a personal winning strategy.

Give it a try. I think you'll like it.

Good luck!

Yip i know that strategie whereby you use the 20, 50, 200 ema as support levels and the market do tend to bounce of those levels. And to use 200 ema as long term trend and 50ema as medium term trend and 20 or 10 as short term trend works well. I know that is one of Ed Ponsi's favorite indicators. And i have learned sooooo much from him.

i agree that the use of MA's as support and/or trend indicator is good but not when you use it as crossover to give you buy or sell signals (which you dont do).
  • #169
  • Oct 23, 2007 8:48am Oct 23, 2007 8:48am
i am a victim of all you stated.

the problem is that i made about $300 in 2 weeks and i thought i was all fun untill yesterday i lost EVERYTHING i had in my account. i felt really devastated.

please, i would really want know how to trade (more professionally). i am not a rich guy, so i cant be able to open a bigger account apart from the mini account.

waht can u do to help me?
  • #170
  • Oct 23, 2007 9:11am Oct 23, 2007 9:11am
Quoting saintalone
i am a victim of all you stated.

the problem is that i made about $300 in 2 weeks and i thought i was all fun untill yesterday i lost EVERYTHING i had in my account. i felt really devastated.

please, i would really want know how to trade (more professionally). i am not a rich guy, so i cant be able to open a bigger account apart from the mini account.

waht can u do to help me?
Demo trade, test the 2 000 000 ideas you can find on FF and in your brain. Learn, learn, learn. WHEN you are consistent play on real account. Till then DEMO. My 2 cents. I am sure you will receive a lot more advice than this. But this is basic.
.
  • #171
  • Oct 23, 2007 9:12am Oct 23, 2007 9:12am
Quoting saintalone
i am a victim of all you stated.

the problem is that i made about $300 in 2 weeks and i thought i was all fun untill yesterday i lost EVERYTHING i had in my account. i felt really devastated.

please, i would really want know how to trade (more professionally). i am not a rich guy, so i cant be able to open a bigger account apart from the mini account.

waht can u do to help me?
My heart goes out to you dude. Yesterday was nasty.

First you need to get the bigger picture of eur/usd assuming you trade it. I recogn it's the easiest currency to begin with. If you look at the chart i have posted you will see that in the Fibbonacci something very interesting happened yesterday. The price fell all the way down to 61.6% fib level without even stopping at 38% or 50% fib levels which are very important levels in the world of fibbonaci. And this tells me that eur/usd needs to close above 1.4240 level (which it is currently doing). Then eur/usd needs to close above 1.4280 on hourly chart. That will give me confirmation that long term trend is still in tact. Only time will tell. Right now the eur/usd is pushing towards those levels.

Right now you can see the 38% level of fibonacci fan is a resistance level. And then of course there is also the weekly pivot level that provides resistance. So the eur/usd has some while to go before i am convinced that we are still heading north.

The only thing that tells me where are still going long is the fundamentals. Make sure you are updates with the latest market news. Barron's econoday is awesome webiste. Also i like to browse thru ActionForex, DailyFX, FXrpm (they give good signals that might help newbies) and FXStreet websites.

But maybe i am not the best trader to teach you anything. I suggest you go to a website called FXStreet. They have awesome webinars. You can attend certain webinars for free. You will learn more there in one day than what i could teach you in months. That way you know you get taught by the pros.

I hope this helps.

ps... All i can teach you is money management. Keep your leverage 1:1 or 1:5 but nothing more. That means if you have a $10 000 account then you only trade $0.10 lots. Yes only 10cents lots. Cause if you make mistakes and you WILL, at least your account doesnt get wiped out. Once you are more confident and equiped then you can start trading $0.50 lots
  • #172
  • Oct 23, 2007 9:14am Oct 23, 2007 9:14am
oops forgot the chart

Ok the 2 blue lines are major resistance and support levels. Eur/usd need to break thru those levels and find support there. Then we know we are going higher.

If is doesn't then we might go down all the way to fibonacci extension levels which are 1.3924 (127fib level) and/or 1.3809 (161.8% FIB level)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #173
  • Oct 23, 2007 9:19am Oct 23, 2007 9:19am
Quoting saintalone
i am a victim of all you stated.

the problem is that i made about $300 in 2 weeks and i thought i was all fun untill yesterday i lost EVERYTHING i had in my account. i felt really devastated.

please, i would really want know how to trade (more professionally). i am not a rich guy, so i cant be able to open a bigger account apart from the mini account.

waht can u do to help me?
$300 is far too small an amount for a mini account. Personally I would not even consider a mini account with less than $10k, preferably more. You can get accounts that allow microlots, which are a tenth as the size of a 10k minilot. But you need to demo trade like bullrock suggested until u can consistently show a profit. This could take many months to achieve so i'd put your cash away for a while. If you are serious, perhaps you could save up some cash in this time, that you can use as "risk capital" when you feel you are good enough to trade live.
  • #174
  • Oct 23, 2007 9:26am Oct 23, 2007 9:26am
Quoting saintalone
i am a victim of all you stated.

the problem is that i made about $300 in 2 weeks and i thought i was all fun untill yesterday i lost EVERYTHING i had in my account. i felt really devastated.

please, i would really want know how to trade (more professionally). i am not a rich guy, so i cant be able to open a bigger account apart from the mini account.

waht can u do to help me?

First of all, you hangout with the wrong crowd; you should be at James16 or Moutaki threads etc. The learning process to trade forex is long and hard so take your time, and be reasonable in your thinking don't be locked up to your ideology like many here. The glass is either half full or half empty and "there is only one way to win that is you".

Cheers,

scalpt
  • #175
  • Oct 23, 2007 9:27am Oct 23, 2007 9:27am
Quoting peterM
$300 is far too small an amount for a mini account. Personally I would not even consider a mini account with less than $10k, preferably more. You can get accounts that allow microlots, which are a tenth as the size of a 10k minilot. But you need to demo trade like bullrock suggested until u can consistently show a profit. This could take many months to achieve so i'd put your cash away for a while. If you are serious, perhaps you could save up some cash in this time, that you can use as "risk capital" when you feel you are good enough to trade live.
Oanda would be a good choice where I "train" myself too. There you have 1/100000th units which can be named micro mini lots. Whatever. There you can loose say 1cent on a trade. Or win 3cents.
.
  • #176
  • Oct 23, 2007 9:30am Oct 23, 2007 9:30am
Quoting peterM
$300 is far too small an amount for a mini account. Personally I would not even consider a mini account with less than $10k, preferably more. You can get accounts that allow microlots, which are a tenth as the size of a 10k minilot. But you need to demo trade like bullrock suggested until u can consistently show a profit. This could take many months to achieve so i'd put your cash away for a while. If you are serious, perhaps you could save up some cash in this time, that you can use as "risk capital" when you feel you are good enough to trade live.

Yip i agree
  • #177
  • Oct 23, 2007 9:31am Oct 23, 2007 9:31am
Quoting scalpt
First of all, you hangout with the wrong crowd; you should be at James16 or Moutaki threads etc. The learning process to trade forex is long and hard so take your time, and be reasonable in your thinking don't be locked up to your ideology like many here. The glass is either half full or half empty and "there is only one way to win that is you".

Cheers,

scalpt
then why are you hanging out here and not at James or Moutaki?lol
  • #178
  • Oct 23, 2007 1:41pm Oct 23, 2007 1:41pm
Quoting iandekoker
then why are you hanging out here and not at James or Moutaki?lol
Sorry, I in a wrong thread but it's true that some of the guys here are stuck with the notion that 4x can't be done, I'd say that anyone can trade to some extend depending on how much you know... Enough said I'll mussy on out of here.

Good trading to you,

scalpt
  • #179
  • Oct 23, 2007 4:40pm Oct 23, 2007 4:40pm
Alot of these are really good. I also think sitting at the screen and watching a pair for too long can mess with your reasoning and result in bad trades. I have definitely made a couple of the mistakes listed but thankfully, i did not overleverage myself and i only lost a small portion of my capital. infact, i think making those mistakes is part of being a novice trader and is really the only way to learn how to trade properly. i thought after trading with a demo account for a couple of months that i could jump right in and make money but u dont realize how much your reasoning changes when you are using real money.
  • #180
  • Oct 24, 2007 12:05am Oct 24, 2007 12:05am
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
Alot of these are really good. I also think sitting at the screen and watching a pair for too long can mess with your reasoning and result in bad trades. I have definitely made a couple of the mistakes listed but thankfully, i did not overleverage myself and i only lost a small portion of my capital. infact, i think making those mistakes is part of being a novice trader and is really the only way to learn how to trade properly. i thought after trading with a demo account for a couple of months that i could jump right in and make money but u dont realize how much your reasoning changes when you are using real money.
Yes we have all been there and done it. Demo and live trading was totally different for me. It was easy to demo, but once i played with live money it was such a psychological shift i had to make.

Look we are human and we are gonna make mistakes every once in a while. But our mistakes must help us learn to be better traders and NOT wipe our accounts out.

HHHHmmmm i wonder if i should ask this question. I wonder how many traders would give an honest answer. But lemme ask it anyway. Do you also find yourself trading with lots of discipline and patience and then SUDDENLY out of nowhere do you make an impulsive trade based more on emotions than on anything else? I know i have........
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