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Harmonic Wave Journal

  • #1,241
  • Oct 22, 2007 8:09am Oct 22, 2007 8:09am
Quoting Traex
The medium term count will be invalid only if cable drops below 1.9880 low. Well today's nosedive is really stunning, EUR/USD dropped over 210 pips today so far, first time ever since I started trading last year. Any fundamental takings?
Just the usual. Been waiting for all of this, just need to see more JPY strength and exotics weakness...guess it is the same unwind mechanism as always, rising USD, diving carry/exotics/stocks..

Hm I think cable may just either have gone into the end of a 5 countish correction end, or some other wave. One way or another I expect at least a 3 wave move lower now after today. Will be reinforced if we close below 2.0315...then things will be bad indeed. Below 2.0240 for me is my first critical "wave over" spot since that's what I thought was Wave 4. So SOMETHING is going down, literally...
Well, let's see. EURUSD may have completed a 5 wave sequence, too, which might only have been the really big daily Wave 3 and now starting an A down for an ABC. The B(or 2) end will be most delicious to enter into if that's true then
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,242
  • Edited Oct 23, 2007 10:07am Oct 22, 2007 12:15pm | Edited Oct 23, 2007 10:07am
Opportunity #J9/07
USD/JPY Long
3 parts
Entry: 113.60
Stop (initial): 113.25

End of mini wave 2 or B, gap trade.

Update 1: Took 1st profit at 114.06 (+46). S/L tightened to 113.55 (guarantees -5).
Update 2: Took 2nd profit at 114.47 (+87). S/L tightened to 114.16 (guarantees +56). Unbelievable that this one trade survives lol.
Tra-X
  • #1,243
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:17pm Oct 22, 2007 1:17pm
Quoting Traex
Opportunity #J9/07
USD/JPY Long
(guarantees breakeven). Unbelievable that this one trade survives lol.

You know, that 1h pattern looks a lot like the big daily pattern we just had...curious to see what's next now that the UJ gap is filled
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,244
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:59pm Oct 22, 2007 1:59pm
Harmonics -

Eur/Usd .................
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
These may be 2 separate scenario's playing out in the Euro

Here is one of them ...........
-------------------------------------------------------------
( Double Click on chart to enlarge )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR0-10-22-07-1.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #1,245
  • Oct 22, 2007 2:45pm Oct 22, 2007 2:45pm
This is a view of the Gbp/Usd
///////////////////////////////////////

There are now Tweezer Bottoms ( Equal Lows )
Will these 2 lows hold for the rest of this week ?
-------------------------------------------------------

( Double click on chart to enlarge )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP-10-22-2007-#1.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #1,246
  • Edited 10:52pm Oct 22, 2007 2:55pm | Edited 10:52pm
Hello Revoke


I drew Elliott Waves and Harmonic Patterns with
a chart print-out ,a pencil , paper , and a ruler
from 2002 to 2005 .....That's right , No Computer .........
It's the best way to learn all this
------------------------------------------------------------
Now , I see all the lines ...... ,

The charts are created with Tradestation , the original chart package
I'm sure you have heard of them .......and No ! , It's not free !
------------------------------------------------------------------
You get what you pay for in life ..........

Cheaper is not Better ..........

--------------------------------------------------------------
  • #1,247
  • Oct 22, 2007 3:24pm Oct 22, 2007 3:24pm
Quoting marketwavez
This is a view of the Gbp/Usd

Will these 2 lows hold for the rest of this week ?
-------------------------------------------------------

( Double click on chart to enlarge )

Actually a single click is enough to zoom in on the charts.

Got similiar ideas/counts as you, now just hoping I will get a good setup at the B/4/retracement levels and a bearish setup to get in for the final/real push.

Anyone also got some bigger counts? I'm playing with this at the moment..but it could very well be I have the proportions completely wrong...I just liked how the 100% projections lined up
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_221007_big_count.gif Size: 29 KB
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,248
  • Oct 22, 2007 5:07pm Oct 22, 2007 5:07pm
Gbp/Usd
( Longer term Views ) Daily Bars
--------------------------------------------------------------
Double click on chart to enlarge
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP-08-23-2007-#1.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #1,249
  • Oct 22, 2007 5:10pm Oct 22, 2007 5:10pm
This thread turned into an analysis thread instead of the dude's journal lol
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #1,250
  • Oct 22, 2007 5:16pm Oct 22, 2007 5:16pm
Quoting karmostaji
This thread turned into an analysis thread instead of the dude's journal lol
Lord, I would hope not...can't stand those...I just think Traex is the most available / competent guy I can ask about the madness I put on some of my charts ;p

(Sorry marketwavez, you were just too busy I guess, tried getting your thoughts on stuff a while ago though ;p)

There really aren't many Elliot Wave sanctuaries with people that actually have a clue...but Traex does(which you're able to tell pretty swiftly), so I asked nicely for some advice and I'm hoping to tag along and learn a bit from him since he's got it down =)

Please, no analysis thread mutations
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,251
  • Oct 22, 2007 10:09pm Oct 22, 2007 10:09pm
Hi, are this count possible?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 23 Oct.jpg Size: 90 KB
  • #1,252
  • Oct 25, 2007 6:13pm Oct 25, 2007 6:13pm
Hello Trader,

With how quiet this page has been I am
assuming everybody has figured out the
wave counts and are just waiting for the move.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

I don't know about you guys, I see a big mess.
Needs a good move to help clear it up some.

Watching that 1.4347 & 2.0558, thinking they
might hold. Let see, anyway, good pip hunting
to all.
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #1,253
  • Oct 25, 2007 10:53pm Oct 25, 2007 10:53pm
Hey Tra-X,

It's way too quiet. We're missing you! So you needed bigger stop losses on Monday, like, oh, say another 100+ pips maybe... ah well. (Geez, I couldn't stomach giant S/L's to stay in the trades, so I'm just joking with you here). Not one of your better days I'm sure. However, GU/EU/GJ prices have all come back and more.

Wish we had your insights. I want to see if I can spot the same things you can see so well.

GJ is narrowing in a symmetrical triangle. Could be some big breakout action coming soon... which direction??


Pips4life
  • #1,254
  • Oct 28, 2007 5:28am Oct 28, 2007 5:28am
Opportunity #J9/07
USD/JPY Long
3 parts
Entry: 113.60
Stop (initial): 113.25

End of mini wave 2 or B, gap trade.

Update 1: Took 1st profit at 114.06 (+46). S/L tightened to 113.55 (guarantees -5).
Update 2: Took 2nd profit at 114.47 (+87). S/L tightened to 114.16 (guarantees +56). Unbelievable that this one trade survives lol.
Update 3: Stopped out for +56.

Total gain: +189

Weekly review:
Total trades closed = 4, winner = 1, losers = 3 (ouch!)
Total gain in winner = 189, total losses in losers = -408
Net gain this week = -219

No short-term trade open thru this weekend.
Tra-X
  • #1,255
  • Oct 28, 2007 5:45am Oct 28, 2007 5:45am
A surprising week for wave trades, wrong short-term counts were noted and revised.
EUR/USD had a very irregular flat mini wave (magenta) 2 correction (current hypothesis) and currently in mini wave 3 up. 1.4350 target area was surpassed, next targets are 1.4450 and 1.4550 areas (minor), 1.4650 and 1.4800 areas (major).
Cable also dived to complete its subwave (orange) C (revised from its previous count at 2.0245 bottom few weeks ago), went up as subwave 1 and now possibly in subwave 2 correction. Levels at 2.0450 and 2.0400 are to be watched as possible end of subwave 2. Next upside targets after 2.0600 area are 2.0650 (previous top), 2.0730, then above 2.0800 areas.
GBP/JPY and USD/JPY have unclear counts.

Good luck to everyone next week.

NB: Looks like many of you already have the Cable count in medium-long term as big wave B up finishing and going to change to big wave C down to possibly 1.9500-600 area again soon.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 30m.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu h1.gif Size: 20 KB
Tra-X
  • #1,256
  • Oct 28, 2007 10:09am Oct 28, 2007 10:09am
Hi Tra-X,

If GU is going down, as many believe, that may pull down GJ also. I've done some long-term GJ counts, and there is a credible scenario that GJ is heading down to 213 - 204 range now (a C wave).

I've read Prechter's book now (once) because you inspired me to look into EW waves. I know you focus more on short term prospects, but I'll offer these long term charts for your consideration. I'm still just learning EW, so I'd welcome any feedback at all...

The alignment of Fib lines from the start of big wave 1 is remarkable. Based on the most recent GJ activity, the start of a C wave down, I projected a target downwards and it lines up perfectly with a 61.8% retracement at ~213. If it goes even farther, it may hit the 76.4 or close, at ~205.60 to 203.88.


Thanks,
Pips4life
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EW GJ 2007-10-26 1of2.jpg Size: 150 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EW GJ 2007-10-26 2of2.jpg Size: 208 KB
  • #1,257
  • Oct 28, 2007 4:14pm Oct 28, 2007 4:14pm
Opportunity #G54/07
GBP/USD Short
3 parts
Entry: 2.0550
Stop (initial): 2.0600

End of mini wave B of subwave 2 (?). Gap trade.
Set TP1 at 2.0505 for +45. S/L will move to 2.0555 once price hits 2.0520.
Tra-X
  • #1,258
  • Edited 1:20pm Oct 30, 2007 3:56am | Edited 1:20pm
Opportunity #G54/07
GBP/USD Short
3 parts
Entry: 2.0550
Stop (initial): 2.0600

End of mini wave B of subwave 2 (?). Gap trade.
Set TP1 at 2.0505 for +45. S/L will move to 2.0555 once price hits 2.0520.

Update 1: Stopped out for -150 again.

Total gain: -150

Opportunity #G55/07
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 2.0570
Stop (initial): 2.0520

Already took 1st profit at 2.0651 for +81, S/L tightened to 2.0574 (guarantees +4).

Update 1: Set TP2 at 2.0720 for +150.

Opportunity #E44/07
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.4377
Stop (initial): 1.4337

Already took 1st profit at 1.4414 for +37, S/L tightened to 1.4380 (guarantees +3).

Update 1: Set TP2 at 1.4467 for +90.

Might prolly be my last trades until exams finish next month.
Tra-X
  • #1,259
  • Oct 30, 2007 4:04am Oct 30, 2007 4:04am
Quoting pips4life
The alignment of Fib lines from the start of big wave 1 is remarkable. Based on the most recent GJ activity, the start of a C wave down, I projected a target downwards and it lines up perfectly with a 61.8% retracement at ~213. If it goes even farther, it may hit the 76.4 or close, at ~205.60 to 203.88.
Hi pips4life,
GBP/JPY aversioners and carry traders are fighting for their life now I guess. I'm looking forward for carry traders to win. This hypothesized wave C down is favored among many people tho. Passing 219, and we'd have H&S target at 190 area.
Tra-X
  • #1,260
  • Oct 30, 2007 4:37am Oct 30, 2007 4:37am
Quoting Traex
Might prolly be my last trades until exams finish next month.
All the best then for the trade and the exams!!
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