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Anybody know why USD is strengthening?

  • #21
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:01pm Oct 22, 2007 1:01pm
Quoting Mr_Trader
Hi

It is so wierd. After the G7 mtg, i thought USD should go lower but instead we see the AUD and EUR selling off?

Any comments ?


Thanks!
I think someone pissed Chuck Norris off....lol

"Experts" recogn it was risk aversion. USDJPY is widely used gauge of risk appetite.

Also a lot of carry trading unwinding....lots of people got burned again....

Also gold traded a bit lower today

Wait for nice pullback to 1.4040 level and go long again with target set at 1.45ish. Might be a very good trade
  • #22
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:28pm Oct 22, 2007 1:28pm
Quoting semar
will have the answer in a few days, hopefully
That's correct. You will get the answer, unfortunately not the reason.
  • #23
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:33pm Oct 22, 2007 1:33pm
The only true answer right now is banks, people were clicking on the sell button and not the buy button. Thats what the charts are telling me. No need to turn on CNBC to figure that out.
Just Trade It
  • #24
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:39pm Oct 22, 2007 1:39pm
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2007/0...markets17.html
  • #25
  • Oct 22, 2007 3:59pm Oct 22, 2007 3:59pm
Quoting j5000
I would also like to know what happened. When I woke up to check the charts I thought "wow, a 23,300 pip dip on EURUSD, not bad"

I was reading the wrong chart though (and quite incorrectly). Moments like that are why I don't trade in the morning


  • #26
  • Oct 22, 2007 4:03pm Oct 22, 2007 4:03pm
I think the market for this pair just ran out of buyers, and only sellers left ... hence, the plunge ....
  • #27
  • Oct 22, 2007 4:21pm Oct 22, 2007 4:21pm
One factory among several is that risk aversion causes carry trades to unwind. When carry trades unwind low yield currencies such as JPY gain on higher yield currencies such as AUD, GBP, NZD, etc. As positions are liquidated demand for high yield currencies decreases and supply increases and since currency pairs are primarily paired with USD the dollar strengthens.
-- Catch the market with it's pants down - Trim away the fat --
  • #28
  • Oct 22, 2007 4:21pm Oct 22, 2007 4:21pm
EURO Countries have been whining that the USD is too weak making their products more expensive in the U.S. And the EURO countries know the fed's boxed in and has to cut rates either in October or December. So, I think the banks and "speculators" are taking profits and selling EUROs to soften the EURO, so when the Fed cuts rates again there will hopefully be some room (if you guys don't make it go up too much in the meantime) for the Euro to appreciate in known waters rather than explore uncharted territory all at once........Or, you can also agree with Schminner, "no buyers left, only sellers"
  • #29
  • Oct 22, 2007 4:30pm Oct 22, 2007 4:30pm
Quoting Mr_Trader
Hi

It is so wierd. After the G7 mtg, i thought USD should go lower but instead we see the AUD and EUR selling off?

Any comments ?


Thanks!

Very simple..... Trade what you see not what you think
  • #30
  • Oct 22, 2007 5:34pm Oct 22, 2007 5:34pm
Quoting SomedayIwill
OK sorry then, not stupid, some other word - not sure which one

It's just that there's no answer for such a things anyway, people might discuss about the reasons and agree or disagree together - still, it's impossible to prove the reason.
Yes! We are saying the same thing.
  • #31
  • Edited 7:50pm Oct 22, 2007 7:16pm | Edited 7:50pm
It might not actually be that big a mystery.

Ask yourself, "who has a half a trillion to move at 8 am EST?"

Probably not the japanese housewives, they would have done it while we slept. Probably not the Europeans.....

And, the dollar getting stronger would tend to bolster the US stock market on the anniverary of "black monday", wouldn't it?

edit: whoops. it was 8 GMT, not EST....
  • #32
  • Oct 22, 2007 7:44pm Oct 22, 2007 7:44pm
Quoting gringo loco
EURO Countries have been whining that the USD is too weak making their products more expensive in the U.S. And the EURO countries know the fed's boxed in and has to cut rates either in October or December. So, I think the banks and "speculators" are taking profits and selling EUROs to soften the EURO, so when the Fed cuts rates again there will hopefully be some room (if you guys don't make it go up too much in the meantime) for the Euro to appreciate in known waters rather than explore uncharted territory all at once........Or, you can also agree with Schminner, "no buyers left, only sellers"
Yup, if the Euro keeps rising against the Dollar, nobody here in the USA will be buying their European crap because it's too expensive. And, if the biggest consumer nation (USA) cannot afford to buy those crap, the Euro economy will litterally stink like crap ....
  • #33
  • Oct 22, 2007 9:05pm Oct 22, 2007 9:05pm
hey, hey, hey... no need to be afraid... no reason to panic...It's me...Yes, I moved a coin, I had to...There are nations behind me.... I had to balance things out.... If you knew what I know you would understand...and in the mean time, peace out my forex factory amigos.
  • #34
  • Oct 22, 2007 10:07pm Oct 22, 2007 10:07pm
Quoting Schminner
Yup, if the Euro keeps rising against the Dollar, nobody here in the USA will be buying their European crap because it's too expensive. And, if the biggest consumer nation (USA) cannot afford to buy those crap, the Euro economy will litterally stink like crap ....
This is along the lines of my opinion on GBPUSD.

It's my opinion that the currencies will be forced lower over the next couple of months in an effort to get affordable imports into the country. Most likely this holiday season will be a weak one, but even our weak holiday spenders spend more than other countries.

Housing troubles will be the main cause. Temperatures are supposed to be warmer than normal this winter, so oil costs won't matter as much.

After the holiday season though, all bets are off. It's likely the negative news mixed with rate cuts will act as drag on the economy, especially as ome will this information as "proof" of a recession. The dollar will further weaken.

My long term prediction at this moment is that the dollar will remain relatively weak through 2010 unless some significant events happen. The largest consumer market in the world has also made some rather spectaculary stupid mistakes recently (using houses as piggy banks, ridiculous mortgages, etc) and we will be paying for it for the next few years. This has already had one ripple effect through world banks. I expect the ripples to continue for awhile here as well.

Consumers will be more thrifty over the next couple of years as they concentrate more on the necessities instead of the frivolities. This will keep a drag going on the economy.

Again, I'm probably full of it. But these are my thoughts at this time.

~X~
  • #35
  • Oct 22, 2007 11:11pm Oct 22, 2007 11:11pm
Quoting Neznaika
hey, hey, hey... no need to be afraid... no reason to panic...It's me...Yes, I moved a coin, I had to...There are nations behind me.... I had to balance things out.... If you knew what I know you would understand...and in the mean time, peace out my forex factory amigos.
Well, that was one big-ass coin you moved ...
  • #36
  • Edited 8:03am Oct 23, 2007 7:49am | Edited 8:03am
ill agree with some and oviously disagree with others.. "it was me that moved the coin" ?? PFF.. LOL! i loved that one, good stuff. anyhow, back to buisness, we can see the GBP/USD already beat the eur to almost a double top, which could indicate a trend reversal no? any how, we have the eur still climing, taking its sweet @ss time clmbing that wall of mud it slid down from, regardless if she doesnt make a double top as well and drop below it, i guess thats also another indication...

anyhow, these are my assumptions, i dont trade long term, i just scalp lol, but im wondering, what you guys think??

by the way, a day after, anyone know what really happened? my tinkle fruity head still says it was the G8 meeting
And your mouth dropped
  • #37
  • Oct 23, 2007 7:56am Oct 23, 2007 7:56am
i might just blame the teletabies.
And your mouth dropped
  • #38
  • Last Post: Oct 23, 2007 6:38pm Oct 23, 2007 6:38pm
Quoting makey2u
i might just blame the teletabies.
Ya gotta blame someone or something, and teletabies a good blame to start ...
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