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Perfect Head & Shoulder In GBPJPY_crash_again??

  • #21
  • Oct 22, 2007 6:07am Oct 22, 2007 6:07am
niceee.. I got a good retracement last night, +190 pips and trailing a stop.. This ride could be an interesting one.
  • #22
  • Oct 22, 2007 6:12am Oct 22, 2007 6:12am
Quoting peterM
niceee.. I got a good retracement last night, +190 pips and trailing a stop.. This ride could be an interesting one.

Yeah....Enjoy the ride...add to the position as you go ...when the market comes to the shoulder at around 226 area..there will be some retrace and waving..but not too much..just make sure you don't close your trades..and then it will be a big big fall to the south as we saw last time .in few minutes..the market could fall 1000 PIPS...

enjoy
  • #23
  • Oct 22, 2007 2:36pm Oct 22, 2007 2:36pm
be careful if you're loading up short positions and expecting 1000+ pips this week, just a friendly warning from a noob
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #24
  • Oct 22, 2007 4:04pm Oct 22, 2007 4:04pm
Quoting karmostaji
be careful if you're loading up short positions and expecting 1000+ pips this week, just a friendly warning from a noob

Hi karmo, thanks for the advice ..yes...there is an uncertainty..i was going with last two H&S this year ....and i entered before the price touched the neckline and decended....so im short from 239 area and adding position from there....if the price rises suddenly..then it will be a loss..else if i get a hint that market is slowlly moving up in daily chart without completing the right shoulder..then i will move the losses accourdingly..

Today ..it should give a better direction..as last time..once it moved..it kept moving

Good Luck...
  • #25
  • Oct 23, 2007 11:23am Oct 23, 2007 11:23am
The market moved higher up, though on a weekly chart where the H&S is formed is a blip...if there is continues upside movement to friday....without going down....it would be a wroung call and i will close my position..i have already closed some of my lots opened yesterday..waiting for more action..

Though im postive for this.... as month on month October was the period when two big crash of 92 and 98 happned in GJ


Good Luck..Keep it posted
  • #26
  • Oct 23, 2007 12:14pm Oct 23, 2007 12:14pm
The neckline has to be broken for it to be tradeable. Wait for it to break either 240 or 230 before taking a position. Above 240 and the whole pattern becomes invalidated - often a much more powerfull signal than an orthodox h&s.

November is one of the best months for stocks - I'd be carefull shorting gbp/jpy going into next month.

Just some stats - since 1990 there have been 17 Novembers, 4 of which were in the red with only November 2000 being a major down month. The average gain in the SnP per month since 1990 is 6 points. The everage gain in November since 1990 is 20 points.
  • #27
  • Oct 23, 2007 12:27pm Oct 23, 2007 12:27pm
Quoting faure
The neckline has to be broken for it to be tradeable. Wait for it to break either 240 or 230 before taking a position. Above 240 and the whole pattern becomes invalidated - often a much more powerfull signal than an orthodox h&s.

November is one of the best months for stocks - I'd be carefull shorting gbp/jpy going into next month.

Just some stats - since 1990 there have been 17 Novembers, 4 of which were in the red with only November 2000 being a major down month. The average gain in the SnP per month since 1990 is 6 points. The everage gain in November since 1990 is 20 points.
Going over 240 will invalidate the H&S...on closer look...today's movement looks a spike on weekly chart...as if it is trying to gain ground up at one go...on the contrary to what i thought..if the movement is slow and in a curve motion...the bullish sentiment would have being stroung..but on the weekly chart it looks straight up...may be false spike..

Due to dollar ...all MNC's in US will show strong profits from outside america which could take dow above 15K in coming months..BUT in reality the value of dollar and dow will be lower than what they are..so for GJ not sure what this would mean..

Anyway..still some PIPS to go up and down to confirm a 100% pattern ...Good Luck
  • #28
  • Oct 24, 2007 12:43pm Oct 24, 2007 12:43pm
GJ came back down after a day up to exactly where it left on monday..it does look very bearish and very similer to last two times crash..if tomarrow too we see a downward movement to more than 200 PIPS..then on friday...there could be a mass sell of and the time to crash...

well thats my take..always..acceept the risk fully..cos nothing is certain..we can just play for our edge to work out and H&S to fully complete its path is my edge..

Good Luck..by tommaorw Nikkie open..we should be clear how it goes..
  • #29
  • Oct 24, 2007 12:48pm Oct 24, 2007 12:48pm
IMO tomorrow will be a bull day, I'm just a newbie though.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #30
  • Oct 25, 2007 7:43am Oct 25, 2007 7:43am
Quoting karmostaji
IMO tomorrow will be a bull day, I'm just a newbie though.
Yes....it seems like a bull day..but not too many pips to the upside....its just keeping me wait wait wait..no direction in sight...and yes patience is the name of the game ..i agree
  • #31
  • Oct 25, 2007 7:45am Oct 25, 2007 7:45am
Quoting spiderforex
Yes....it seems like a bull day..but not too many pips to the upside....its just keeping me wait wait wait..no direction in sight...and yes patience is the name of the game ..i agree
why not grab pips along the way instead of waiting for the big crash which might take weeks till it starts? or it might not even happen!
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #32
  • Oct 25, 2007 11:37am Oct 25, 2007 11:37am
Quoting karmostaji
why not grab pips along the way instead of waiting for the big crash which might take weeks till it starts? or it might not even happen!
yeah..thats the mental adjustment i have to do now..i would wait for first half of next week to see where it is heading and then will scrap the idea alltogether..cos last two times it has being very similer but not this slow ..still nearly 75% of H&S is complete only the last few legs remain and i being watching this movement since august from the last fall and made big plans on it..now its very hard to let go of it ..
  • #33
  • Oct 25, 2007 11:40am Oct 25, 2007 11:40am
Quoting spiderforex
yeah..thats the mental adjustment i have to do now..i would wait for first half of next week to see where it is heading and then will scrap the idea alltogether..cos last two times it has being very similer but not this slow ..still nearly 75% of H&S is complete only the last few legs remain and i being watching this movement since august from the last fall and made big plans on it..now its very hard to let go of it ..
I've been expecting a fall for months now, but I've been taking intra-day trades and whenever the fall comes, I'm going to ride it. Don't just build up positions in anticipation of the big fall, because it is very risky and you could end up blowing up your account. Just be careful coz GJ is a beast
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #34
  • Oct 25, 2007 1:21pm Oct 25, 2007 1:21pm
Quoting karmostaji
I've been expecting a fall for months now, but I've been taking intra-day trades and whenever the fall comes, I'm going to ride it. Don't just build up positions in anticipation of the big fall, because it is very risky and you could end up blowing up your account. Just be careful coz GJ is a beast

Yes..intra day trade is the way to go before expecting any big fall or rise..but whenever i trade intraday..the PIPS come to me and then go back..the volatility in GJ is too much for me to handle..even if i keep 200 PIPS its just eats away later..so i had moved to daily chart and now weekly ..so i be safe from chops..but the downside is..when ever i see the prices going where i expect i start adding the position and when it doesn't as it did this week...i loose on the position..

comparitevly...i have being hit by stop loss more often than making a wroung trade call..guess greed always gets to me when i get going..

for the time being im also doing EurUSD and USD CAD they are lame as duck and very easy going..if i keep 400 PIPS stop loss and trade with it for a month .it looks good...and then i would be adding a new position month over month..
  • #35
  • Oct 25, 2007 7:25pm Oct 25, 2007 7:25pm
Here is what I see and I am waiting for. I am treating it as a correction worth around 700 pips on Both the DOW and the EUR/YEN and is setting up on both charts. If it plays out I will take 80% of my position at my target and leave 20% on in case it does infact crash
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  • #36
  • Oct 26, 2007 10:21am Oct 26, 2007 10:21am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
Here is what I see and I am waiting for. I am treating it as a correction worth around 700 pips on Both the DOW and the EUR/YEN and is setting up on both charts. If it plays out I will take 80% of my position at my target and leave 20% on in case it does infact crash
Wow..Doug....Looks like we are heading south...market just refuses to give any direction YET it should have gone down..i suspect market manupulation and by todays news from newstradefx here in FF..it's fairly true..the PPT is at play and they are doing everything they can to stop the move down south...next week...surely they say they will raise the rates,,GJ is just tipping at the pivot mark and swinging up and down...today the DOW jumped more than 100 points why isn't did GJ move north..has it lost all it steam and got no more power to go north..next week..should be really interesting..all bets are on
  • #37
  • Oct 31, 2007 11:17am Oct 31, 2007 11:17am
Closed all position taking 200 PIP hit over all ....if it crosses 242 again ..im short

good luck
  • #38
  • Nov 1, 2007 1:03pm Nov 1, 2007 1:03pm
Looks like the previous one was not the right shoulder..but this time its more like it..DOW tanked harder and carry traders are scared to cross the 240 mark....it would take lot of momentum on a daily basis to get it above 240 mark and looking at the DOW..its seems hard..

Im short again ..this drop could be it...
  • #39
  • Nov 3, 2007 8:52pm Nov 3, 2007 8:52pm
I'm long again. Market tested 240 and developed really great support off of the low it just created. The trendline on the 4 hour chart is the same angle as the trendline on the previous swing. Market is above the key 50 day moving average on the daily chart and the 30, 50, and 100 moving averages on the weekly chart are all flowing beautifully upward. I still maintain that this head and shoulders formation is invalid given the bullishness on the weekly chart.
  • #40
  • Nov 12, 2007 7:56am Nov 12, 2007 7:56am
WOW....Folks..Looks like this is it...last few weeks call was just a delay for the inevitable...its perfect head and shoulder now and market has already fallen 800 PIPS since friday...


Looks like we would be seeing it below 210 mark soon
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