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Now I know why 95% of traders are on losing side

  • #121
  • Oct 21, 2007 3:45pm Oct 21, 2007 3:45pm
Quoting bullrock
Oh yeah the charts above... This can work one day, two days. The what happens if you got 10 loosers.
10*2000 = 20 000
Then you will need 40!!! winners to get breakeven.. No shit.
How about this. 50sl/150tp
When you have 7 loosers (7*50=350) and 3 (3*150=450) winners you still have 100 pips+?? But than 70% of the time you still a looser? In the previous example you need to be a winner 80% of the time. That would be quite a feat!!!
I have a 25% win ratio, but still make 200% ROE a year and less stress.

Dont need 25% or more win to trade for a living.

  • #122
  • Oct 21, 2007 3:48pm Oct 21, 2007 3:48pm
Quoting vinnie99
I have a 25% win ratio, but still make 200% ROE a year and less stress.

Dont need 25% or more win to trade for a living.

See... That is excellent ... I just said I am happy with 50% - minimal target.: But I think I can make 100%-200% a year.
.
  • #123
  • Oct 21, 2007 5:21pm Oct 21, 2007 5:21pm
Quoting iandekoker
Regarding your 2nd chart. Once again our chart differ. Either the brokers have different times or your setting are not like mine.
Its just keeps getting better. It is rather sad that you have had to resort to desperate measures to try to avoid being proven wrong.
1st chart.
Sorry, no 5 pips there. 4 at best even with an ECN. And thats assuming you managed to get in at the exact open price which I doubt very much.
2nd chart
I suggest you look again. It does not take a genius to work out that the trade I refered to is the peak to the left of the ones you have highlighted.
Different broker times? Wrong settings? Or maybe the full moon had something to do with it.
Do please tell eveyone how you managed to avoid this loser?
Those that can, do, those that can't, teach.
  • #124
  • Oct 21, 2007 5:40pm Oct 21, 2007 5:40pm
Quoting pf1966
Its just keeps getting better. It is rather sad that you have had to resort to desperate measures to try to avoid being proven wrong.
1st chart.
Sorry, no 5 pips there. 4 at best even with an ECN. And thats assuming you managed to get in at the exact open price which I doubt very much.
2nd chart
I suggest you look again. It does not take a genius to work out that the trade I refered to is the peak to the left of the ones you have highlighted.
Different broker times? Wrong settings? Or maybe the full moon had something to do with it.
Do please tell eveyone how you managed to avoid this loser?
whatever floats your boat my friend. It's not my fault you don't know how to follow what i wrote and/or doesn't know how to set up the ADX properly.
  • #125
  • Oct 21, 2007 9:14pm Oct 21, 2007 9:14pm
If you don't understand the the fundamentals that influence currency movement and currency correlations, you are going to have an extremely hard time being successful. With that as a foundation, you have to understand support and resistance, money management and, of course, timing.

Any strategy that does not employ those elements will have mediocre results.

After 3.5 years of getting schooled in this market, a return to those essentials has provided a successful trading framework. This is one of the most sophisticated markets in the world and to approach it with anything less than a top-down approach to trading will cause only fleeting success and a lot of ulcers.
  • #126
  • Oct 21, 2007 9:57pm Oct 21, 2007 9:57pm
Quoting WTB
You certainly are fighting a losing battle trying to convince most of the readers that risking 20 pips for a 5 pip target will make money in the long run, but I'd be interested to hear the reasons you put forth to defend such position.
In one of Metaquotes' EA trading competitions, there was an EA (from memory it was called something like 'Robin Hood') that operated with a 6 pip target and a 140 pip stoploss. It finished in the top 10 with a 100% win rate over something like 26 trades. Its inventor was selling the EA on his website.

Would have only taken one loser to wipe out all of the winnings though. Sounds a bit like playing Russian roulette!

David
  • #127
  • Oct 21, 2007 10:57pm Oct 21, 2007 10:57pm
Quoting hanover
In one of Metaquotes' EA trading competitions, there was an EA (from memory it was called something like 'Robin Hood') that operated with a 6 pip target and a 140 pip stoploss. It finished in the top 10 with a 100% win rate over something like 26 trades. Its inventor was selling the EA on his website.

Would have only taken one loser to wipe out all of the winnings though. Sounds a bit like playing Russian roulette!

David
William Tell would have been appropriate also. He may be able to shoot that apple off your head many times, but just one miss really sucks.
  • #128
  • Oct 21, 2007 11:05pm Oct 21, 2007 11:05pm
the simplest way to play with risk...is to have 2 accounts...both of which carries a differing level of volatility....
  • #129
  • Oct 21, 2007 11:59pm Oct 21, 2007 11:59pm
Quoting smartmoney
If you don't understand the the fundamentals that influence currency movement and currency correlations, you are going to have an extremely hard time being successful. With that as a foundation, you have to understand support and resistance, money management and, of course, timing.

Any strategy that does not employ those elements will have mediocre results.

After 3.5 years of getting schooled in this market, a return to those essentials has provided a successful trading framework. This is one of the most sophisticated markets in the world and to approach it with anything less than a top-down approach to trading will cause only fleeting success and a lot of ulcers.
Yes i agree 100%. Maybe some traders don't take the time to study a currency and/or seek to understand what is driving it

What is your thoughts on the immediate future of the eur/usd? I am convinced that we will trade around 1.36-1.45 till the end of the year based on the gold price and oil price that has a inverse correlation with the usd plus the fact that the housing slump in the usa is still not picking up and also the subprime crisis that get blamed for everything at the moment...lol
  • #130
  • Oct 22, 2007 12:05am Oct 22, 2007 12:05am
Quoting hanover
In one of Metaquotes' EA trading competitions, there was an EA (from memory it was called something like 'Robin Hood') that operated with a 6 pip target and a 140 pip stoploss. It finished in the top 10 with a 100% win rate over something like 26 trades. Its inventor was selling the EA on his website.

Would have only taken one loser to wipe out all of the winnings though. Sounds a bit like playing Russian roulette!

David
Damn with 140 pip stop loss you might as well not have a stop loss

Yes that is my problem with systems too, they are work during trending markets and/or for a short while but in ranging markets and/or in the long run they seem to struggle.
  • #131
  • Oct 22, 2007 12:07am Oct 22, 2007 12:07am
Quoting billflet
William Tell would have been appropriate also. He may be able to shoot that apple off your head many times, but just one miss really sucks.
Lol...exactly
  • #132
  • Oct 22, 2007 12:08am Oct 22, 2007 12:08am
Quoting jest1081
the simplest way to play with risk...is to have 2 accounts...both of which carries a differing level of volatility....
Ok this is a new line of thought that i havent come across before. Care to share some more detail on this?
  • #133
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:11am Oct 22, 2007 1:11am
I would not go into much detail...no one trader would share their pot of gold, but i believe i have given a brief idea on how it can be done, the rest, i guess you'd have to figure it out. I have to thank my mentor for this.

There is always ways to protect capital and grow the account exponentially at a fast rate. And minimally, 2 accounts does it, i have figured or guessed (well maybe) Jacko used a similar style too, when you have leverage at your disposal, exploit it in an intelligent manner.
  • #134
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:14am Oct 22, 2007 1:14am
Quoting jest1081
I would not go into much detail...no one trader would share their pot of gold, but i believe i have given a brief idea on how it can be done, the rest, i guess you'd have to figure it out. I have to thank my mentor for this.

There is always ways to protect capital and grow the account exponentially at a fast rate. And minimally, 2 accounts does it, i have figured or guessed (well maybe) Jacko used a similar style too, when you have leverage at your disposal, exploit it in an intelligent manner.
Don't tell me you're "half muslim"? I think if anyone figures out what I mean, they deserve to know.
Never underestimate the powers of the Force.
  • #135
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:30am Oct 22, 2007 1:30am
i'm afraid you're starting to mix management methods with spiritual beliefs....please do not question my faith, you're treading on a fine line sir.

If i have to give you everyhting on a silver platter, then theres no worth left in learning and discovering, work you mind Mr Jedi even my mentor does not give it all to me, you'll just have to figure it yourself. If there is something i have learned from the best traders here....they don't give away their grail.
  • #136
  • Oct 22, 2007 1:42am Oct 22, 2007 1:42am
This post is absolutely correct and I hope I had seen this before now may be it would had helped me to manage my account better but it is never too late to adjust thank you
  • #137
  • Oct 22, 2007 2:41am Oct 22, 2007 2:41am
aye sir jest1081 , if 2 account is too expensive to maintain, you can have virtually build on the first one, just like ram drive.
using multi leverage to pyramid in smart way. no?

and no, it is not hedging for free swap.
  • #138
  • Oct 22, 2007 2:53am Oct 22, 2007 2:53am
Quoting jest1081
i'm afraid you're starting to mix management methods with spiritual beliefs....please do not question my faith, you're treading on a fine line sir.

If i have to give you everyhting on a silver platter, then theres no worth left in learning and discovering, work you mind Mr Jedi even my mentor does not give it all to me, you'll just have to figure it yourself. If there is something i have learned from the best traders here....they don't give away their grail.

Yes i agree let's respect everyone on here.

I am sure Jedi didnt mean any disrespect.....
  • #139
  • Oct 22, 2007 3:08am Oct 22, 2007 3:08am
Quoting Gwan
aye sir jest1081 , if 2 account is too expensive to maintain, you can have virtually build on the first one, just like ram drive.
using multi leverage to pyramid in smart way. no?

and no, it is not hedging for free swap.
Gwan sir,

I think you hit the nail with that one... the next step, which is defitneitely the harder part...how do we go abt doing it. How much risk is worth the risk? How do i plan on capital protection (for both accounts)? There are plenty of ways to approach it, but i guess you got the gyst of it all.

regards
jest
  • #140
  • Oct 22, 2007 4:23am Oct 22, 2007 4:23am
Quoting The Jedi
Don't tell me you're "half muslim"? I think if anyone figures out what I mean, they deserve to know.
I think he was probably talking about a perfect hedge (swap free second account) trading approach.
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