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SRDC Episode II

  • #1,521
  • Dec 21, 2006 10:23pm Dec 21, 2006 10:23pm
Quoting haiqu
I'm on a dialup so going live is impossible. The recordings didn't work here. :-(

Rob
on dialup, are you able to download the files while you sleep? or are they still to large for the attempted download?
  • #1,522
  • Dec 21, 2006 10:23pm Dec 21, 2006 10:23pm
Quoting downunderdave40
Here is my chart analysis for 22 Dec 2006. We have a bearish channel on the 1 hr chart and we zoom in on 15 minute chart to see larger picture over the past few days. We enter the day in Q4 and there is a triangle pattern that is formed. Price may bounce up to touch the top of the channel and then work it's way down to the bottom of the channel. If yesterday's low is broken that is a good sign the downtrend will continue. If the long term support line (red line) is broken then there is a very good chance price will continue down until the bottom of the channel. This may not happen today since there may not be alot of volume although there are some news releases out of the USA that may move the market early on Friday morning.

This is just my analysis, please do not think that I know more about SRDC than you do. I am learning just as you are. Any feedback or comments would be appreciated.
Good analysis. I went short at 1.9632 but I'd only expect a TP target of 1.9595 or so, given that the daily is almost at the bottom. Also there's strong support around the 1.9600 line showing from yesterday.

Rob
p.s. Don't follow me, I'm lost too. :-D
  • #1,523
  • Dec 21, 2006 10:30pm Dec 21, 2006 10:30pm
To Dave : Personally I agree with your chart Dave, nice analysis !!!
Me only add a medium lower support line that was drawn from the low of 19/12/2006 07:30 GMT and the low of 21/12/2006 14:30 GMT.

I also attached chart as follow. Look at the ellipse part and the pattern of GBP/USD on Daily basis. Master Roshan said, the Big Boys are not that creative. Looks like they want to form the same pattern, only they are squezzing time for now to form each of the pattern. If so, then we will see GBP/USD move down passing the Q3 line and try to test bottom line on Q4 area, , then go back again to Q2, down again to bottom line and then move up and make a new uptrend channel.
If this is true, perhaps we can get a road map that can tell us, how they're gonna play the GBP/USD price on upcoming days. If it is true...he.he.he..
Attached Image
  • #1,524
  • Dec 21, 2006 10:35pm Dec 21, 2006 10:35pm
Quoting downunderdave40
Here is my chart analysis for 22 Dec 2006. We have a bearish channel on the 1 hr chart and we zoom in on 15 minute chart to see larger picture over the past few days. We enter the day in Q4 and there is a triangle pattern that is formed. Price may bounce up to touch the top of the channel and then work it's way down to the bottom of the channel. If yesterday's low is broken that is a good sign the downtrend will continue. If the long term support line (red line) is broken then there is a very good chance price will continue down until the bottom of the channel. This may not happen today since there may not be alot of volume although there are some news releases out of the USA that may move the market early on Friday morning.

This is just my analysis, please do not think that I know more about SRDC than you do. I am learning just as you are. Any feedback or comments would be appreciated.
If you follow text book level II then your H1 is drawn to the beginning of the week, trend is up, and is in Q4 ready to go up. But if you only look at H1 today it is bearish. So.. I guess you still have to determine your bias subjectively.

otherwise your analyses on the 15 min looks good
  • #1,525
  • Dec 21, 2006 10:54pm Dec 21, 2006 10:54pm
Quoting jaimeca
If you follow text book level II then your H1 is drawn to the beginning of the week, trend is up, and is in Q4 ready to go up. But if you only look at H1 today it is bearish. So.. I guess you still have to determine your bias subjectively.

otherwise your analyses on the 15 min looks good
Hi Jaimeca,

Yes, but the uptrend channel was broken to the downside on Wednesday. We've had 2 days with lower highs and lower lows. Looks to me like the trend has changed on 1 hr chart. If you draw the channel from Monday until end of Thursday you get a 300 pip wide channel. Considering the average daily range for GBP is 100-120 I think a 300 pip channel is a bit too wide.

Just my thoughts at this time.
Dave If you can't swim with the sharks stay out of the water!
  • #1,526
  • Dec 21, 2006 10:58pm Dec 21, 2006 10:58pm
Quoting Bom-Bom
To Dave : Personally I agree with your chart Dave, nice analysis !!!
Me only add a medium lower support line that was drawn from the low of 19/12/2006 07:30 GMT and the low of 21/12/2006 14:30 GMT.

I also attached chart as follow. Look at the ellipse part and the pattern of GBP/USD on Daily basis. Master Roshan said, the Big Boys are not that creative. Looks like they want to form the same pattern, only they are squezzing time for now to form each of the pattern. If so, then we will see GBP/USD move down passing the Q3 line and try to test bottom line on Q4 area, , then go back again to Q2, down again to bottom line and then move up and make a new uptrend channel.
If this is true, perhaps we can get a road map that can tell us, how they're gonna play the GBP/USD price on upcoming days. If it is true...he.he.he..
Hi Bom Bom,

Those bearish channels look very similar. I agree we will be going lower in the next few days.
Dave If you can't swim with the sharks stay out of the water!
  • #1,527
  • Dec 21, 2006 11:31pm Dec 21, 2006 11:31pm
OK, OrangeRoshan encouraged us to draw trendlines... Today while i was doodling on the GbpUsd 1hr chart i drew a particular recent LRC and placed my usual FiboChannel over it to see the quadrants easier.

I then zoomed out and saw something i had missed in my normal up-close viewpoint. The 1 hour chart was to big to get the data in the FF 600 pix max so i switched the chart to an unofficial ....off the record.... four hour chart, but you will see something interesting, at least to me.

When i told the FC to draw as a "Ray" the upper trend line projected back to within a few pips of some promenant lows, that had now turned into resistance on two recent highs. I'm now going to keep my eyes out for more of these situations.

Here is the chart all zoomed out to fit in the FF max pix sized, and yes they are candles...it's just so zoomed out:

http://accrete.com/fx-srdc/tradeex/20061221FC4hr.gif
  • #1,528
  • Dec 21, 2006 11:47pm Dec 21, 2006 11:47pm
Quoting downunderdave40
Hi Jaimeca,

Yes, but the uptrend channel was broken to the downside on Wednesday. We've had 2 days with lower highs and lower lows. Looks to me like the trend has changed on 1 hr chart. If you draw the channel from Monday until end of Thursday you get a 300 pip wide channel. Considering the average daily range for GBP is 100-120 I think a 300 pip channel is a bit too wide.

Just my thoughts at this time.
Your consideration of the range is noted. But the GBP does not have to accomplish the full range in one day, it could as it did from monday to wednesday perform a recovery from q4 to q1 over 2-4 days. My thoughts only.
  • #1,529
  • Dec 22, 2006 1:08am Dec 22, 2006 1:08am
Hi team,

The big boys leave a marker yesterday at 17:00GMT. See when you can spot it!!

Twingkle twingkle little star...
Change Your Thinking. Change Your Life - JD
  • #1,530
  • Dec 22, 2006 1:38am Dec 22, 2006 1:38am
Quoting OrangeRoshan
Hi team,

The big boys leave a marker yesterday at 17:00GMT. See when you can spot it!!

Twingkle twingkle little star...

On the 1hr candle yesterday at 17:00GMT. i saw a normal down candle. But on 15mins candle yesterday at 17:00GMT, i saw a doji.

Hmm... food for thought !
The future depends on what we do in the present.
  • #1,531
  • Dec 22, 2006 1:54am Dec 22, 2006 1:54am
This was my trade tonight off a mini channel on the consolidation during the Asian with a bounce at Q4 / prior day's close up to an area i marked above the Q1 on the downward daily LRC and a trend line drawn from two highs within the LRC. . . target hit at 07:30 in after bounce at 1.9631 candle close. It looked like a very conservative straight forward trade entry/exit. The price may shoot to the moon or go down to the core of the earth...either way, my pips are banked and i'm heading to bed. It's been a long week in the TS room! Tonight is dream time.

Cheers,
Thom

http://www.accrete.com/fx-srdc/tradeex/20061222atm.gif
  • #1,532
  • Dec 22, 2006 2:13am Dec 22, 2006 2:13am
Quoting OrangeRoshan
Hi team,

The big boys leave a marker yesterday at 17:00GMT. See when you can spot it!!

Twingkle twingkle little star...
Are you referring to the shooting star at 19:00 GMT on the 15m charts???
  • #1,533
  • Dec 22, 2006 2:33am Dec 22, 2006 2:33am
I saw a candle with 'stilt like' legs. Followed by bullish momentum. Is it the big boys way of saying "Yo, little one, pick my trash if u wanna pip like me"
  • #1,534
  • Dec 22, 2006 3:08am Dec 22, 2006 3:08am
Quoting altapowder
Are you referring to the shooting star at 19:00 GMT on the 15m charts???
Yes, it was shooting star, but exactly on 17:00 GMT on 15 Minutes Chart, followed by spinning top, it was reversal after a short up trend and price dropped to 1.9595 from its place before at 1.9636. That was also considered as a pinocchio pin bar with long nose according to James 16 thread. A reversal signal from previous trend.

But what is the relation of that candle with today's market, Master?

Hmmm.....got to think and think again
  • #1,535
  • Dec 22, 2006 3:13am Dec 22, 2006 3:13am
Hi Team,

How to see the game the big boys are playing.

Setups:

1) the famous 6th last candles of the 20th from the 15mins chart
2) the 17:000 GMT 21st Dec.

Draw 2 horizontal lines, then look at how many pips is inside the box (the 2 parallel lines). Add another horizontal line above the 6th candles line with distance of the same pips.

What do you see?

They are really bored!!
Change Your Thinking. Change Your Life - JD
  • #1,536
  • Dec 22, 2006 3:15am Dec 22, 2006 3:15am
Quoting Bom-Bom
Yes, it was shooting star, but exactly on 17:00 GMT on 15 Minutes Chart, followed by spinning top, it was reversal after a short up trend and price dropped to 1.9595 from its place before at 1.9636. That was also considered as a pinocchio pin bar with long nose according to James 16 thread. A reversal signal from previous trend.

But what is the relation of that candle with today's market, Master?

Hmmm.....got to think and think again
That was just a song my son like to sing, its a distraction. LOL
Change Your Thinking. Change Your Life - JD
  • #1,537
  • Dec 22, 2006 3:15am Dec 22, 2006 3:15am
Quoting OrangeRoshan
Hi team,

The big boys leave a marker yesterday at 17:00GMT. See when you can spot it!!

Twingkle twingkle little star...
Hi Orange !

You're giving us nice puzzles
(By the way I like them very much....)

I've attached a 1h chart with the situation.

When I thought about your little puzzle I remembered the words
support and resistance

Happy Pippin

Bernhard
Attached Image
  • #1,538
  • Dec 22, 2006 3:17am Dec 22, 2006 3:17am
Quoting OrangeRoshan
Hi team,

The big boys leave a marker yesterday at 17:00GMT. See when you can spot it!!

Twingkle twingkle little star...
Engulfing Bearish?
  • #1,539
  • Dec 22, 2006 3:28am Dec 22, 2006 3:28am
EERRRRRKKKK...
  • #1,540
  • Dec 22, 2006 3:29am Dec 22, 2006 3:29am
Hmmm,

thats quite hard to decipher. Can the master pls elaborate?

Quoting OrangeRoshan
Hi Team,

How to see the game the big boys are playing.

Setups:

1) the famous 6th last candles of the 20th from the 15mins chart
2) the 17:000 GMT 21st Dec.

Draw 2 horizontal lines, then look at how many pips is inside the box (the 2 parallel lines). Add another horizontal line above the 6th candles line with distance of the same pips.

What do you see?

They are really bored!!
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