NZD/USD

I am stuckkkkk on this currency! Unfortunately I unwisely chose a bad NZDUSD position that made me dread the NZD currency.. Anyway, the reason for this thread is to discuss the NZD's latest trends.

Do you think it'll going further down of will it atleast hit the 7600's again?

This pair looks to continue down. Don't be fooled by any ranging and small retracements. If it goes climb up a bit it's a great short for now. I have 7280 as some big time support.

I think it will do what the dow does in the near term.

Yikes... down almost 400 pips in one day

But do you think there's any chance of it hitting the 0.7600/0.7500's again?

Here's the trend that it's currently following on the 15 min chart, it'll either break in an upward direction or a descending direction..

You asked about .7600, yes, it will reach that point again. Although, that doesn't mean to hold a position just because. NZD/USD could reach .7200 for instance before it reaches .7600 again. Wouldn't it be much nicer to be out now and get back in later? Even if your new entry signal is .7485 or such, you will still make most of your losses back if it does go back to .7600. That is if this is the monthly low. I suppose what is most important in this time, would you rather not make 50 pips (or be down that much rather than BE) on the way back up to .7600 or hold an extra 50, 75 or more pips of drawdown when prices next move is down? Will you feel worse if you get out and get back in or you get dragged even further in the red?

Regarding the move, I really can't give advice as to which way it will go. I am a believer in the long term trend ... so LONG is my bias. Though long was my bias when it was at .7465, now .7435, later perhaps .7400 even. When something is going down, it is best to treat it as such. Otherwise you will continue to get stuck. Don't hold onto hope that something will continue its move, just go with the flow. Of course, I am not perfect, I hold a couple bags myself ... though those are extremely low leveraged positions and don't hurt me. It sounds like this might be a position that will hurt you.

Just curious, would you mind explaining why something that has been trending so strong for so long to the LONG bias is suddenly a "great short"? If anything, this is a good place to be looking for a new entry long. At least this is how I figure it. I am not suggesting you are wrong, NZD/USD could go to .7000 even and I wouldn't make a penny off of it while you stack the chips. I do not know your system nor your knowledge of fundamentals, though I am certain from your profile both are greater than my own. Having said that, I would hardly call this a great short at this point. For anything to be great, it needs more than one day of interuption. Please do not take this as criticism, though I do honestly consider shorting this pair to be far more dangerous than going long.

Thanks

I like the way you think, obviously your a great forex trader , and I appreciate you sharing your assessment.

Hi StockJay,

This move has absolutely nothing to do with technicals. In fact I took a loss because technically this pair was screaming long when it broke 7670 and then held support 3 times. Arg-Still a painful memory..

Anyway, I made back my losses +++ when it broke 7670 because this move was all about the infamous carry trades and a bout of risk aversion. Do I think there could be more downside spikes? Absolutely yes. Do I envision a consolidation period when it does find a bottom? Absolutely yes. Nervous markets will do that IMO. And make no mistake this market is extremely nervous. So what possible good, in terms of risk to reward, what it be to take a long until the steady uptrend has been re-established?

Hope I explained myself clearly. If you are interested in discussing technical levels I would be willing to show the signifigance of both 7670 and 7280.

Cya,
TFX

It's currently formed in a descending trading range, but it's obvious that it's going down, if it broke 0.7298 then know that it's going to continue going down.
At the moment, however, it's extremely unstable; I am just waiting for it to break out from the trading range (the one I've posted in my latter post) and whenever it breaks out, I'll know that it's going to continue through the break out trend.

Any objections/comments?

Broke the trading range in an upward direction!! Hurray!

Just did more homework, seems that the short resistance is 0.7480, while support is 0.7298.

Hope you'll all venture in winning trades , I am calling it a day.

as was the story TWICE yesterday, selling into any rally is the way to go for now.

Short from 7520.

Bought it back at BE. This might go up to 7592 area today. I'll wait on the sidelines for now.

Now me thinks it's time for a short at .7544.
Further consolidation?? Probably
More ranging?? Probably

Pips to be made? Definitely

Seeing some divergences...stop to BE

Gonna drop to 300 level's.

Look at the attachment; a PERFECT breakout!

Yep, waiting on London, right now 7470/80 is the optimal level for a short

I'm waiting for the gap in nzd.jpy to fill at 85.44 on my platform before I sell. What did your platform close Friday at?

85.57 and open at 85.05, we're at 85.01 at this point. Just a matter of time.

Kiwi yen gap filled and I'm short from 7483