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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #41,981
  • Oct 19, 2007 2:36am Oct 19, 2007 2:36am
Quoting karmostaji
I know I might get shot here saying this, but I don't see GJ falling a lot more, actually I'm thinking it will head back up, way up. An opinion from a noob called karmo
I don't think your a noob Karmo but why do you think this is close to the bottom?
  • #41,982
  • Oct 19, 2007 2:37am Oct 19, 2007 2:37am
Quoting Hakuna Matata
233.70 could be a nice tgt for today
Hi Hakuna,

Is your 233.70 target based on the weekly 50EMA?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly.gif Size: 14 KB
"Quitting while you are ahead is not the same as quitting".
  • #41,983
  • Oct 19, 2007 2:42am Oct 19, 2007 2:42am
Quoting rodders
I don't think your a noob Karmo but why do you think this is close to the bottom?
Believe me, I'm a noob and I'm learning here just like everyone else, one year trading means nothing.

We all know this pair loves doing 50% retracements most of the time, yeah it can go to 61.8 or whatever, but from what I've seen, it loves the 50. From the last upside breakout from that range, the 50% fibo is right here 235.20, price is basically sitting on it.
Another thing is, QQE 1hr and 4hr are nearing oversold area, and whenever that happens, we get some good retracements (200 or so pips), I would like to hear auslanco's input on this though.

so, IMO we're going to get a good 200-300 retracement, but don't take it for granted.. I was and could be wrong.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #41,984
  • Oct 19, 2007 2:44am Oct 19, 2007 2:44am
Quoting gtt
There's a lot more room to down, (Yuan related strength for Yen) but with good British data we may stall or go up like yesterday's retail, then down?
Read the article, it shows a disturbing image for longs in any JPY crosses,
I'd prefer to stay out of them. Currently GBP/JPY flat, closed my short in anticipation of GBP data might come out surprising like yesterday's retail sales:

Safe trading,

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...714306123.html
  • #41,985
  • Oct 19, 2007 2:46am Oct 19, 2007 2:46am
Quoting karmostaji
We all know this pair loves doing 50% retracements most of the time,
Thanks man, always an education!
  • #41,986
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:00am Oct 19, 2007 3:00am
Based on the wave structure of a decline, we can not expect any big retracements untill it reaches 234, that area is a must, then we might see a retacement from there, but in my humble opinion, I see 231 area as an area to start building short term longs, anything above is risky, gb/us is in the 3 wave down, us/jpy is also in the 3rd wave down, 3rs waves are impulsive in nature and rather often reach their potential targets without any major retacements, unless we have waves within waves, and in our case, we have a very orderly, so far 9 wave structure down. I favor the targets mentioned earlier before any significant pullback, if one occors I would suspect that, at this time it will be limited to 237-237.50 area.
  • #41,987
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:02am Oct 19, 2007 3:02am
Quoting karmostaji
Believe me, I'm a noob and I'm learning here just like everyone else, one year trading means nothing.

We all know this pair loves doing 50% retracements most of the time, yeah it can go to 61.8 or whatever, but from what I've seen, it loves the 50. From the last upside breakout from that range, the 50% fibo is right here 235.20, price is basically sitting on it.
Another thing is, QQE 1hr and 4hr are nearing oversold area, and whenever that happens, we get some good retracements (200 or so pips), I would like to hear auslanco's input on this though.

so, IMO we're going to get a good 200-300 retracement, but don't take it for granted.. I was and could be wrong.
I totally agree. All it would take is some favorable GBP numbers, and we'll be right back in the 237ish area.
  • #41,988
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:04am Oct 19, 2007 3:04am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
I totally agree. All it would take is some favorable GBP numbers, and we'll be right back in the 237ish area.
yep, I'm looking for 237-237.30 area to add some shorts. well, let's see what happens.. news could spoil everything though.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #41,989
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:07am Oct 19, 2007 3:07am
Quoting karmostaji
Believe me, I'm a noob and I'm learning here just like everyone else, one year trading means nothing.

We all know this pair loves doing 50% retracements most of the time, yeah it can go to 61.8 or whatever, but from what I've seen, it loves the 50. From the last upside breakout from that range, the 50% fibo is right here 235.20, price is basically sitting on it.
Another thing is, QQE 1hr and 4hr are nearing oversold area, and whenever that happens, we get some good retracements (200 or so pips), I would like to hear auslanco's input on this though.

so, IMO we're going to get a good 200-300 retracement, but don't take it for granted.. I was and could be wrong.

I'm with you bro.. My estimate is up to 237.30 atleast (Daily 5sma). However the price could retest daily lows between London close and NY close.

Cant see this pair falling big today from this level.
  • #41,990
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:08am Oct 19, 2007 3:08am
Hi all,

UJ is now showing some kind of retracement

So what......
Non licet omnibus adire Corinthum
  • #41,991
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:10am Oct 19, 2007 3:10am
Price could drop down towards 234.50 after the news followed by a large retracemnt up to 237+ area. Just a prediction on the momentum.
  • #41,992
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:14am Oct 19, 2007 3:14am
first level of resistance I can see is 236.30... two fibs.. and previous support...

Karmostaji, Auslanco, How do you define oversold/overbought levels in QQE5 H1 H4 ?
  • #41,993
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:16am Oct 19, 2007 3:16am
Quoting emda
first level of resistance I can see is 236.30... two fibs.. and previous support...

Karmostaji, Auslanco, How do you define oversold/overbought levels in QQE5 H1 H4 ?

70/30
  • #41,994
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:21am Oct 19, 2007 3:21am
Friday, October 19th (04:30 am New York Time) UK
We have UK GDP coming out. The timing of this indicator is very important. This indicator may literally determine the next interest rate move of the Bank of England. It's expected to come out at 0.7%. If it comes out at 0.8% or above, it would be a strong reading, and I think that GBP/USD can possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If on the other hand GDP comes out at 0.6% or lower, GBP/USD can possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
  • #41,995
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:28am Oct 19, 2007 3:28am
UJ GJ and EJ above their 1H pivot points.....
Non licet omnibus adire Corinthum
  • #41,996
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:29am Oct 19, 2007 3:29am
Quoting karmostaji
I know I might get shot here saying this, but I don't see GJ falling a lot more, actually I'm thinking it will head back up, way up. An opinion from a noob called karmo

no seeing or thinkin bro--just trade your charts bro!

ure good at that
  • #41,997
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:31am Oct 19, 2007 3:31am
and this is for everyone
lot of technicals have been discussed here b4
put ita ll together and ull get a clearer pic
we know that 50ema 15 min acts as solid R in an intraday trend basis--so see where the price is in relation to it
we are below 4hr 100sma
we are below 4hr 200ema
we are below daily 50ema
and much more--just go back and read all the analysis discussed b4


yesterday many kept on saying it will head back higher--but we were under the 4hr 100sma (even more powerful then 1hr 100sma) so those kind of thoughts/predictions should be taken with care !

if ure trading on lower tf's --dont mix them/hold them thinkin larger TF's will save u
just have good MM

enuff said

lets see what develops--doesnt matter --longs or shorts
(keep an eye on 50ema on 30,1hr too and yesterdays lower TL--where its at now)
  • #41,998
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:34am Oct 19, 2007 3:34am
+ dont foget all thsoe harmoniic patterns discussed b4 from that cbearish butterfly high D price at 240.50

this could be the begininng of a big fall--could !

especially if we get a close below 50ema daily today---then a possibility of a BLACK MONDAY nxt week??--
who knows-- lets just trade day by day !
  • #41,999
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:35am Oct 19, 2007 3:35am
Quoting auslanco
Friday, October 19th (04:30 am New York Time) UK
We have UK GDP coming out. The timing of this indicator is very important. This indicator may literally determine the next interest rate move of the Bank of England. It's expected to come out at 0.7%. If it comes out at 0.8% or above, it would be a strong reading, and I think that GBP/USD can possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If on the other hand GDP comes out at 0.6% or lower, GBP/USD can possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

bro--hows the vacation going?
plenty of cocktails?
  • #42,000
  • Oct 19, 2007 3:38am Oct 19, 2007 3:38am
Quoting Radarnett
Hi Hakuna,

Is your 233.70 target based on the weekly 50EMA?

yes buddy-- from workin form 4hr down and all those strong S levels we have gone thru mentioned above--- that could be a good tgt for today--but im not going to hold any large movements today---ive made a killing this week and i dont want to give much away--so my profit tgts will be conservative

but imagine we get a close below that today--OMG
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