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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #41,041
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:08am Oct 17, 2007 8:08am
market is set for rally today based on positive quarterly earnings today and bad housing number is exxpected to be ignored today.Tune in bloomberg and other news channel it all over them lets wait and see
  • #41,042
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:08am Oct 17, 2007 8:08am
Quoting comeinvest
What is the implication of Dow Jones Future up for GJ? I'm still beginner, hope could know more about this. TY
From what I learned here GJ tends to follow the Dow.
  • #41,043
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:09am Oct 17, 2007 8:09am
Quoting winterwhite
Markham:

Your commentary is very valuable. Not being able to read over
2000 of your posts, I am wondering if you would post in a separate
thread your analysis of the market's correlation with the many
fundamentals you comment on? It would be a valuable reference
for all. Thank you for sharing your understanding with us.

Just click on his handle and then on "find all posts by Markham" and youŽll get the info

BTW, why the bold type? - no need to raise your voice
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #41,044
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:12am Oct 17, 2007 8:12am
Quoting comeinvest
What is the implication of Dow Jones Future up for GJ? I'm still beginner, hope could know more about this. TY
GJ correlates with the US stock market. If the dow goes up, GJ goes up.

If you trade GJ based upon economic news, you have to look at the impact of the news on both GU and UJ in order to predict whether GJ is going to go up or down. I simplify that by looking strictly at the impact on the stock market. To me, it doesn't matter whether it is the GU or the UJ pair that moves GJ. I just have to know that if the dow moves up, GJ will also move up.
  • #41,045
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:13am Oct 17, 2007 8:13am
Well, I should pay more attention to my own analysis on Aus's Weekly Thread. For those interested, you can go ahead and read the Weekly and Daily posts I made last weekend. I thought price would go down to the Daily 200EMA, which I thought would be around 235.50, and then start its move back up. My 4H Chart predictions were telling me that, because of bearish divergence on the 4H Chart, price would go down about 400-500 pips. Price's high at that time had hit 240.68 and the Daily 200EMA was hit at 235.85 (where the Daily 50EMA is, also). That's just shy of 500 pips. I know Aus just said we could expect more bearishness today, and the Forex market can be unpredictable, but I think 235.90 was it as far as lows for now. There is now bullish divergence on the 4H, 1H, 30M and 15M charts. The 4H is obviously the one to pay attention to. Could price go back below the 236 level within the next day or so? Sure it could. Anything can happen. I'm just saying that from 4H divergence moves which I have backtested, and with the support at the 236 level, I think that's it for now. I know Scrat had said 235.90 was all he saw. Zoran, I'd be interested to hear what you think at this point as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #41,046
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:13am Oct 17, 2007 8:13am
Quoting karmostaji
no, I learned just by practicing and reading what auslanco says about them, experience is the best teacher you can have.
whats your outlook on short now?
  • #41,047
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:14am Oct 17, 2007 8:14am
Hakuna,

If the price closes above 100 sma on hourly is a buy or not based on your killer scalping trade?
Thanks bro ..
  • #41,048
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:15am Oct 17, 2007 8:15am
Quoting mansaf6
market is set for rally today based on positive quarterly earnings today and bad housing number is exxpected to be ignored today.Tune in bloomberg and other news channel it all over them lets wait and see

looks like it. dow futures up 88 points now.
  • #41,049
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:17am Oct 17, 2007 8:17am
Quoting gau2902
whats your outlook on short now?
waiting like a sniper, but DOW could mess things up a bit so I'll just wait till the proper setup occurs.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #41,050
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:19am Oct 17, 2007 8:19am
Quoting winterwhite
Markham:

Your commentary is very valuable. Not being able to read over
2000 of your posts, I am wondering if you would post in a separate
thread your analysis of the market's correlation with the many
fundamentals you comment on? It would be a valuable reference
for all. Thank you for sharing your understanding with us.
That sounds like a lot of work. I'll just keep sticking my nose into Aus's technical analysis thread.
  • #41,051
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:19am Oct 17, 2007 8:19am
Quoting RoWkIlLa
From what I learned here GJ tends to follow the Dow.
Quoting markam
GJ correlates with the US stock market. If the dow goes up, GJ goes up.

If you trade GJ based upon economic news, you have to look at the impact of the news on both GU and UJ in order to predict whether GJ is going to go up or down. I simplify that by looking strictly at the impact on the stock market. To me, it doesn't matter whether it is the GU or the UJ pair that moves GJ. I just have to know that if the dow moves up, GJ will also move up.
Thanks to both of you and the community here as well. I learn something today. Thanks a lot
  • #41,052
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:29am Oct 17, 2007 8:29am
Quoting my2buoys
Zoran, I'd be interested to hear what you think at this point as well.
I suspect this is just a bounce off that daily trendline (and 4H 200ema). I would expect price to return and retest that line. It's not an easy one to break and it may not, therefore a continuation north could be expected (back to 247). However, I'm still favouring a break of that line, which should push price down fairly rapidly.

Intraday wise, price could still go to 239.00 (or just below) before this turns south again.
  • #41,053
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:30am Oct 17, 2007 8:30am
going to be a big opening of the market. It may drop after that and we could see a drop of GJ.
  • #41,054
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:36am Oct 17, 2007 8:36am
Around 238.90 theres the 61.8% fib of the big Jul/Aug drop and also the 61.8% of this last move down.
  • #41,055
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:42am Oct 17, 2007 8:42am
Price is at the Daily 5sma.
  • #41,056
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:44am Oct 17, 2007 8:44am
Quoting RoWkIlLa
Around 238.90 theres the 61.8% fib of the big Jul/Aug drop and also the 61.8% of this last move down.
And the weekly pivot. This should tell us whether it really was just a correction (if it breezes past these resistances), or there is yet more legs in a move south.
  • #41,057
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:45am Oct 17, 2007 8:45am
Quoting Zoran
I suspect this is just a bounce off that daily trendline (and 4H 200ema). I would expect price to return and retest that line. It's not an easy one to break and it may not, therefore a continuation north could be expected (back to 247). However, I'm still favouring a break of that line, which should push price down fairly rapidly.

Intraday wise, price could still go to 239.00 (or just below) before this turns south again.
Price did it's 50% retracement which it is addicted to and also daily 5sma retracement, I expect price to make a new low now, 235 is on the cards IMO.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #41,058
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:53am Oct 17, 2007 8:53am
yes bro....I agree with you....we should see GJ to reversal soon.....

Quoting karmostaji
Price did it's 50% retracement which it is addicted to and also daily 5sma retracement, I expect price to make a new low now, 235 is on the cards IMO.
  • #41,059
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:57am Oct 17, 2007 8:57am
Quoting karmostaji
Price did it's 50% retracement which it is addicted to and also daily 5sma retracement, I expect price to make a new low now, 235 is on the cards IMO.
Agreed, I'm jumping in at 238.25. You hopping in now or waiting for further clarification?
Craazy
  • #41,060
  • Oct 17, 2007 8:59am Oct 17, 2007 8:59am
Quoting craazy
Agreed, I'm jumping in at 238.25. You hopping in now or waiting for further clarification?
I've got a small one in, will add more as I get more confirmation.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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