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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,781
  • Oct 16, 2007 10:38am Oct 16, 2007 10:38am
The European Session´s just finished with a 300+ pip range, so barring any big sell off in the Dow - now at 13,917 and 33 points off its low - I think the fall has finished for now. Cable put in its low just under its 2.0300 level over 4 hours ago and UJs low of 116.43 (M0) was at 02:30 EDT - 9 hours ago.

A retrace to a fibbo level - the 38% ish area would be just under the 238 level or the 61% around 238.50 should be possible. I´m flat and finished for the day.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,782
  • Oct 16, 2007 11:12am Oct 16, 2007 11:12am
Prepare yourself for the southward journey the market is going down all the way down..




Perfect head & shoulders in weekly chart,,,,,,yeah i spelled correctly its weekly chart...that would mean a easy 3000 to 4000 pips drop..

You are right this time people...think objectively..we are not special or unique...its all objectivity at play...the market has nothing against us ...the pips will come down to us eventually...

Now the question is not when you will get the PIPS but how will you spend it...im thinking of thailand and then a round trip to spain and brazill, finally halting at russia...where chicks are more cooler

Good Luck to you all..i wil repost in other gj thread just to control my euphoria
  • #13,783
  • Oct 16, 2007 11:56am Oct 16, 2007 11:56am
That interesting Spider, I'm not seeing any head and shoulders pattern on my weekly Guppy chart - can you post yours? Of course, mine is demo, so it could be off. Its from InterbankFx.
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #13,784
  • Edited 3:03pm Oct 16, 2007 12:11pm | Edited 3:03pm
Quoting Islander
Just to add to my joy, my platform locked up for about 5 mins of the drop, keeping me out of entering.....I was not a happy bunny! Still, the 50% retrace / M1 provided a good entry as I had suggested.
Sorry to hear that Islander.

Ain't been a lot better for me lost my internet connection so most of the afternoon has been trade free!!

Going out now so will catch up with you in the morning.
  • #13,785
  • Oct 16, 2007 12:23pm Oct 16, 2007 12:23pm
Quoting spiderforex
Prepare yourself for the southward journey the market is going down all the way down..




Perfect head & shoulders in weekly chart,,,,,,yeah i spelled correctly its weekly chart...that would mean a easy 3000 to 4000 pips drop..

You are right this time people...think objectively..we are not special or unique...its all objectivity at play...the market has nothing against us ...the pips will come down to us eventually...

Now the question is not when you will get the PIPS but how will you spend it...im thinking of thailand and then a round trip to spain and brazill, finally halting at russia...where chicks are more cooler

Good Luck to you all..i wil repost in other gj thread just to control my euphoria

I suggest that you put your bong away and take a second look at your charts......whilst the potential for a H & S is there, so far price is still above its 4hr 200ema, which is still rising. IMO you need a much larger fall before your suggestion becomes reality.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,786
  • Oct 16, 2007 12:25pm Oct 16, 2007 12:25pm
Quoting Wolf.
Sorry to here that Islander.

Ain't been a lot better for me lost my internet connection so most of the afternoon has been trade free!!

Going out now so will catch up with you in the morning.
You didnt miss much this afternoon, subject to a late sell off - evening for us Europeans.....see you for FO /LO
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,787
  • Oct 16, 2007 1:34pm Oct 16, 2007 1:34pm
Quoting Islander
I suggest that you put your bong away and take a second look at your charts......whilst the potential for a H & S is there, so far price is still above its 4hr 200ema, which is still rising. IMO you need a much larger fall before your suggestion becomes reality.

bong
  • #13,788
  • Oct 16, 2007 4:55pm Oct 16, 2007 4:55pm
Blue, Magenta, Yellow ? None of them?
Put your bet

(the Header and shoulders pattert could be so evident... that may finish not working at it should...)
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  • #13,789
  • Oct 16, 2007 5:42pm Oct 16, 2007 5:42pm
While the H&S appears to be the ticket at the moment, Zoran is correct it isn’t valid until it reaches the neckline, While I believe that for the moment the top is in ( Retest of lower median ) this could end up being a diamond or something else before dropping, if south is the ultimate direction. There’s still A LOT of room upstairs.

But when patterns fail what normally happens? It moves opposite in a hurry as those who were anticipating the pattern bail, what we need to ask ourselves is where do we put the point of no return, where will the H&S and other corrective patterns be null and void and how do we position ourselves correctly.

Fwiw,
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  • #13,790
  • Oct 17, 2007 12:52am Oct 17, 2007 12:52am
why i got 26568 as top rang on my hourly chart!!!
Fuck that GMT 2:30

I will wait for long. currently, it still drop. and it will be a slow drop which take a day to adjust itself.
go back to bed, safty first
  • #13,791
  • Oct 17, 2007 1:53am Oct 17, 2007 1:53am
Quoting winwise
why i got 26568 as top rang on my hourly chart!!!
Fuck that GMT 2:30

I will wait for long. currently, it still drop. and it will be a slow drop which take a day to adjust itself.
go back to bed, safty first

Yes, please go to bed and hopefully when you wake up your language will be better and your post clearer.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,792
  • Oct 17, 2007 2:13am Oct 17, 2007 2:13am
Quoting Islander
Yes, please go to bed and hopefully when you wake up your language will be better and your post clearer.


Good Morning,
  • #13,793
  • Oct 17, 2007 2:35am Oct 17, 2007 2:35am
Whilst I do look once a week at longer term charts, looking for any levels or time lines that might come into play, I find that the 4 hour is as far as I need to go out for my trading.

The completion of the bearish pattern mentioned in erlier posts finally came in on Monday, which was also a Daily Time line from the July 20 high.

Now price has fallen to the 38% fibbo / 200ema at 235.88 - this area or the WS2 just below at 235.54 could provide sufficient support for a bounce.

The 5 min chart has just put in a higher low at 235.93, so IF it can close above a rising 34ema then we will have the start of a bounce and can begin looking for possible levels for further shorts......that will depend on the BOE Minutes due in an hour and then what happens with the Dow later.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,794
  • Oct 17, 2007 3:27am Oct 17, 2007 3:27am
What a great set of short term entries off my 5 min chart......Bearish Divergence in the Snake at the high of 237.80 alerted to the possible entry - confirmed as price broke the 34 ema (agua) which was turning down - note that the 200ema (green) was still down.

The 100+ pip fall made it to the lower 200ema band, where it snapped back to the 34 ema, turned and had another run to the lower band, now with Bullish Divergence in the Snake.....the Buy was confirmed by the higher low.

Now price has stalled at the MS1 and WR1 pivots and the 38% fibbo of the fall is just above at 237.66 - no signal yet and BOE due, so exit longs and wait....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,795
  • Oct 17, 2007 3:28am Oct 17, 2007 3:28am
Quoting Wolf.


Good Morning,
Hi Wolf....what are you seeing?
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,796
  • Oct 17, 2007 3:33am Oct 17, 2007 3:33am
Looked to me like a good place to go long, came within 32 pips of the last highs, close enough. The impending news may decide.

Edit: tried to post this before the news ff wouldn't let me.
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  • #13,797
  • Oct 17, 2007 3:58am Oct 17, 2007 3:58am
Quoting Wolf.
Looked to me like a good place to go long, came within 32 pips of the last highs, close enough. The impending news may decide.

Edit: tried to post this before the news ff wouldn't let me.
I guess that you´re talking about the highs on Aug 27 & 31, then with the 200ema as resistance, so now using them as support? - 200ema currently at 235.15.

Its also interesting that the daily 34ema is now at 236 and just turning from up to flat - it often acts as support / resistance in this TF too!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,798
  • Oct 17, 2007 3:59am Oct 17, 2007 3:59am
I posted similar then deleted it after realising I was just giving him more advertising.


Anyway we have resistance area's coming up if we can make it past the daily pivot 238.05 the bulls may be in charge?
  • #13,799
  • Oct 17, 2007 4:12am Oct 17, 2007 4:12am
Quoting Islander
I guess that you´re talking about the highs on Aug 27 & 31, then with the 200ema as resistance, so now using them as support? - 200ema currently at 235.15.

Its also interesting that the daily 34ema is now at 236 and just turning from up to flat - it often acts as support / resistance in this TF too!
Yes thats correct, and the supports you mention look good long confirmation. Looking at the 4 hr chart the weekly pivot at 238.92 looks strong resistance. So 239 area may be critical?

Supposing it gets up there that is.
  • #13,800
  • Oct 17, 2007 4:16am Oct 17, 2007 4:16am
Quoting auxesis
While the H&S appears to be the ticket at the moment, Zoran is correct it isn’t valid until it reaches the neckline, While I believe that for the moment the top is in ( Retest of lower median ) this could end up being a diamond or something else before dropping, if south is the ultimate direction. There’s still A LOT of room upstairs.

But when patterns fail what normally happens? It moves opposite in a hurry as those who were anticipating the pattern bail, what we need to ask ourselves is where do we put the point of no return, where will the H&S and other corrective patterns be null and void and how do we position ourselves correctly.

Fwiw,
The way I trade a H&S is on the breaking of the NL and when price generally returns to it. This is a high probabiliy low risk trade. My NL will probably sit around 221 as a straight line as I'm not sure about the decending line at the moment.

I am short from the top of the potential right shoulder for other reasons.
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