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(False) Breakout & Trend Reversal Strategies?? 12 replies

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Attachments: USDCAD trend reversal?
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USDCAD trend reversal?

check this out...it's a nice clear pattern seen on USD/CAD

As you can see U/Cad has currently reached the top yellow line and not only that... it's also heavily overbought so I'm expecting a sharp fall to the 0.9675-0.9650 level

As for the overall outlook the point at which those two lines cross is where I'll really consider going long which is actually EXACTLY at the 423.6% fib level which is about 0.9250

The best part about that...oil is at 88! So by the time USD/CAD is at 0.9250 is when I see oil turning around...but I'm aiming oil to get up to about 100
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On a completely non-technical point, tonight was the Throne speech. I had forgotten all about it....Sometimes it's a market mover (particularly when we had bigger spending gov'ts), though certainly not tonight. But it does explain a bit why $/Cad hasn't been moving along with oil this last few days.
Reading up afterwards, it sounds like Canada may be in for a bit of political fun over the next little while - as our fearless leader is putting the screws to the opposition, particularly over their much loved progeny, Kyoto, which Canada is officially backing away from. Risky stuff, with a minority gov't. Anyway, politics may start showing it's head again in $/CAD - especially if the left-of-center parties (Liberals, New Democrats, PQ) start improving their public image (i.e. looking sane, in the case of the NDP & PQ, just alive for the Libs).
Quoting MoForce
check this out...it's a nice clear pattern seen on USD/CAD

As you can see U/Cad has currently reached the top yellow line and not only that... it's also heavily overbought so I'm expecting a sharp fall to the 0.9675-0.9650 level

As for the overall outlook the point at which those two lines cross is where I'll really consider going long which is actually EXACTLY at the 423.6% fib level which is about 0.9250

The best part about that...oil is at 88! So by the time USD/CAD is at 0.9250 is when I see oil turning around...but I'm aiming oil to get up to about 100
Not yet Mo,

I think we're going up first, at least a break of 9810 or so. Heavily overbought!!!!!!!!! Well maybe today that's about it. If this is not oversold with no mercy, defying all gravity, well it will never be..... Where have you found that "funnel" chart interpretation? Yep, it just looks like Canada can pour some oil in that funnel.
Seems like it's gonna go down strongly, but not before it hits the 0.9900's
Quoting Adwa
Seems like it's gonna go down strongly, but not before it hits the 0.9900's

IF it can break 09833 area maybe a retest of 1.00 is in the card imo
Just as I expected and stated before....there was a bounce off the upper yellow line
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Lowest descent of the day, 0.9726; good time to buy?
Looks like we have some nice EW relationships. Also divergence on 4 hrly. A break of upper red line will confirm change in trend.

Verno
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Quoting verno
Looks like we have some nice EW relationships. Also divergence on 4 hrly. A break of upper red line will confirm change in trend.

Verno
WOAH! A change in what trend? I hope you don't mean the overall trend
I am refering to the longer term trend yes. However I am not saying that a change will definitely occur, merely that a number of factors suggest its possible.
Quoting verno
I am refering to the longer term trend yes. However I am not saying that a change will definitely occur, merely that a number of factors suggest its possible.
Just a tip.....NEVER EVER think there will be a change in the long term trend based off of a break in a level only a few hundred pips away... This downtrend has been there for a looong time now and your red line is at a mere 50-100 pips away... theres no way that will prove a break in the trend. A point where one could start to consider an actual longterm trend reversal would be at a level where USD/CAD face a lot of resistance when trying to move up during this last down trend. A level like the one I'm describing would be at about 1.1900... until USD/CAD breaks that level first...theres nothing that supports a trend reversal. (Another factor would be oil going on a decline...thats not gonna happen anytime soon) Don't get me wrong... sure it's possible, but don't put your balance on the line from a break of a line some 50-100pips away saying the trend has reversed...
Here's a pattern I've noticed over the past few weeks... a nice little funnel which has been holding true for quite some time It's a good way to see where USD/CAD is going but I'm still waiting for a break of either of those lines otherwise it goes all the way to 0.92
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I guess you are right on the longer term trend and we probably have different trading timeframes.

The break of the redline would be good for a few hundred pips I would suggest. So maybe trading back upto the 102 region. For me this is a break in the more recent trend which is what I am looking for.

Regards
Verno
Anyone knows a website with a live oil chart?

Thanks
Quoting mirdaniel
Anyone knows a website with a live oil chart?

Thanks
Live prices here directly from the CME (free with signup). No chart though..
Quoting Trader KGB
Live prices here directly from the CME (free with signup). No chart though..
Thank you very much KGB. CLX7 right?
Quoting mirdaniel
Thank you very much KGB. CLX7 right?
Yes CLX7 is still the front month, but it's close to rollover, so you'll see that CLZ7 is trading twice the volume.
Quoting Trader KGB
Yes CLX7 is still the front month, but it's close to rollover, so you'll see that CLZ7 is trading twice the volume.
On CLZ7 it's lower, does it mean we will be going lower next week? What about f8, g8, h8? Future contracts?

Thank you
Quoting mirdaniel
On CLZ7 it's lower, does it mean we will be going lower next week?
Not necessarily, that's just backwardation of prices we've been seeing in the crude markets for several months now (future prices lower than spot prices, the opposite of contango).

Quote
What about f8, g8, h8? Future contracts?
Yes.
Quoting Trader KGB
Not necessarily, that's just backwardation of prices we've been seeing in the crude markets for several months now (future prices lower than spot prices, the opposite of contango).


Yes.
Excuse my english (french), backwardation? Why is it relevant? Why twice volume on CLZ7? If you have time in this friday afternoon (Montreal time) to answer me, I would appreciate your infos.

Thank you KGB
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