I see oil reaching 100 USD?!

Any of you cats want to update your oil predictions? CLX07 has gone up $6 bbl since this thread was started 2 weeks ago.

Full service aviation gas is $5.27/gal at my airport

dont blame me,...but i think fair value at 88-100 euros...i think, but when,...thats the other thing...turkey elections should be a bulish factor,...china as well, im long only in african producers...tp q3 results,..if ill handle the volatility...

I don't. I blame Nancy Pelosi

If only there were a way to convert that to USD...hmmm

I have not a clue we we go from here but I like the low 80's as possible support. U.S. has not felt the squeeze enough yet. Maybe when we hit 5-10 per gal at the pumps.

many commodity related issues have been smok'in crack as of late. I always get wary when commodities lead a rally.. I like water stocks or tic PHO (etf) and think water will become a very important commodity going out long term. Glad I picked some up earlier this year..lol

SOurce "The Oil Drum"...



World total liquids supply production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in 2009. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will also continue increasing.

 

1. Forecast world crude oil and lease condensate (C&C) production retains its 2005 peak (Fig 2). The forecast to 2100 shows declining C&C production, using a bottom up forecast to 2012 (Fig 3). The forecast to 2012 shows a 1%/yr decline rate to 2009, followed by a 4%/yr decline rate to 2012.
2. World oil discovery rates peaked in 1965 (Fig 4) and production has exceeded discovery for every year since the mid 1980s. Discoverable reserves in giant fields also peaked during the mid 1960s (Fig 5). The time lag between world peak discovery in 1965 and world peak production in 2005 of 40 years is similar to the time lag of 42 years for the USA Lower 48 (Fig 6).
3. World C&C year on year production changes to March 2007 and April 2007 (Figs 7,8) show significant declines for Mexico, North Sea and Saudi Arabia; significant increases for Russia, Azerbaijan and Angola. As Russia is likely to be on a production plateau and Saudi Arabia has probably passed peak production, the world C&C production will continue to decline slowly.
4. Key producer Saudi Arabia recently released an updated project schedule which does not show originally scheduled expansions of Shaybah phase 2, 0.25 mbd and Al Khafji Neutral Zone, 0.30 mbd. Consequently, it is now almost a certainty that Saudi Arabia passed peak C&C production of 9.6 mbd in 2005 (Figs 9,10).
5. World natural gas plant liquids is forecast to increase due to new OPEC projects (Fig 11). World ethanol and XTL production is forecast to double by 2012 (Fig 12). World processing gains are forecast to decline slowly to 2012 (Fig 13).

Saudi Arabia Crude Oil & Lease Condensate Production
Saudi Arabia remains a key producer in the world and continually reminds the world of its enormous reserves and surplus production capacity.
This paragraph on capacity in IEA's 12 June 2007 Oil Market Report, page 15, explains Saudi Arabia’s current surplus capacity situation within an OPEC context.

Notional spare capacity stands at 4.0 mb/d, while our measure of effective spare capacity (excluding Indonesia, Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela) stands at 2.85 mb/d. Although these volumes are physically producible, even this lower figure likely overstates what OPEC could actually shift onto the market given current prices and shortages in refinery upgrading capacity. Heavy, sour Saudi Arabian and Kuwaiti crude accounts for 88% of the effective spare capacity figure. In the absence of substantial discounts, these volumes might struggle to find buyers while sizeable amounts of refinery upgrading capacity remain offline for scheduled and unscheduled maintenance. Readily marketable spare crude capacity may therefore be much lower, and a more accurate reflection of current market tightness.

In other words, this IEA paragraph says that the world has only 0.35 mb/d spare capacity of readily marketable light sweet crude because the spare capacities of 2.20 mb/d from Saudi Arabia and 0.30 mb/d from Kuwait are hard to sell heavy sour crudes. Given the statements in this IEA monthly market report, the following forecast assumes no effective spare capacity of easily marketable Saudi Arabia crude.

Congressman Roscoe Bartlett
Congressional Record
THE PEAKING OF WORLD OIL
House of Representatives

February 8, 2006

http://www.peakoil.net/Publications/...s020806Low.pdf

Peak Oil, that is until they start deep water drilling even deeper than they are now. We have been running out of supply from almost the moment oil was discovered. Once the price is high enough to make it profitable, like magic new supply sources are found.

$100 is just around the corner. Or so it seems.

evry day u learn something new...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nancy_Pelosi

http://www.xe.com/ucc/ simple....

A ha, a Democrat like Hillary who moved across the country to California, to run for Congress. You know who you would like see run this country.

What's that other link for?

well for nothing actually...lol....

quote

Turkish Assembly approves Incursion into Iraq, Lawmaker says...

BRIEFING.COM] The major indices have held steady since the last update. Just reported, crude inventories rose 1.78 million barrels last week, analysts expected crude oil inventories to rise 1.05 million

Guess it might be Iraq/Turkey situation propelling higher still.

I don't listen to the experts but this guy must be a real market wiz..

Person: Crude at $120 a real possibility

The market "keeps testing higher levels," when it comes to crude oil. That's according to John Person, the President at NationalFutures.com. He tells John Wordock that "we could easily top 95" dollars a barrel in "the next week." But that's not all, he says technical pressures could mean $120 oil "by year's end."

Actually John Person is pretty good. He is big on Pivots & Candles.

Getting closer to $100

Do you guys know of any charting software that gives you quotes on crude and futures and forex? I want to see Dow Jones and Oil in the same darn dialog, and all I have now is a few crappy websites.

TradeStation

Here is a TradeStation chart Dow in green - Crude in red.

Don't know any free websites for crude. Other than a small chart on www.nymex.com

Thanks both of you, never used it before, about time I check it out.

http://www.caglecartoons.com/images/...0503201%7D.gif

ditto.

you aint trading until you have tradestation!

(LOL, ok i know i just pissed off a lot of MT guys, im just talking crap though)