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Part Time Wealth Building Trading System - Weekly Scalping

  • #1,381
  • Oct 16, 2007 12:55pm Oct 16, 2007 12:55pm
My weekly strategy for the GU showed short so I have entered Monday 00:00 GMT shorts.
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  • #1,382
  • Oct 16, 2007 12:57pm Oct 16, 2007 12:57pm
Quoting dsrfun
So my question is did any one following the Rules posted in 1st post of this thread achived profits in either demo trading or live trading continueoulsy over a period of time (6 months will be good)? No paper trading please as we might miss the small price swings that can trigger stop losses.... Also I saw some equity and performance chanrts in the thread... how were they generated? Based on just daily prices or did they actually took price swings with in the daily candles into considetaion?
Dsr....
We do know that Tkimble trades this system for real, and has had success with it. He trades other systems on other timeframes as well. So, yes it is a system that can be profitable. TKimble however does re-enter the trade even if stopped out 2 or 3 times....for myself, 2 is enough and I get out. I am sticking with this system after trying many others, but I'll need to get back to you in 5 months to tell you about results.
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #1,383
  • Oct 16, 2007 1:04pm Oct 16, 2007 1:04pm
Quoting Pidgeon
Dsr....
We do know that Tkimble trades this system for real, and has had success with it. He trades other systems on other timeframes as well. So, yes it is a system that can be profitable. TKimble however does re-enter the trade even if stopped out 2 or 3 times....for myself, 2 is enough and I get out. I am sticking with this system after trying many others, but I'll need to get back to you in 5 months to tell you about results.
This is a highly profitable system. I will post here an excel sheet later that you can use to backtest the system. You will be able to variate the number of units, tps and sls and so on.

Regards
BR
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  • #1,384
  • Oct 16, 2007 1:05pm Oct 16, 2007 1:05pm
Also it is needed to be used on three-four non correlated pairs like ej,uc and the like.
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  • #1,385
  • Oct 16, 2007 1:14pm Oct 16, 2007 1:14pm
Quoting bullrock
Also it is needed to be used on three-four non correlated pairs like ej,uc and the like.

I thought about this as well. Can anyone point me to some info on non correlated pairs. I will google for now. Thanks Bull for the insights!!

Chris
  • #1,386
  • Oct 16, 2007 1:18pm Oct 16, 2007 1:18pm
Quoting Cmartin371
I thought about this as well. Can anyone point me to some info on non correlated pairs. I will google for now. Thanks Bull for the insights!!

Chris
You need this Chris:
http://fxlabs.oanda.com/cgi/fxlabs.pl?id=4
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  • #1,387
  • Oct 16, 2007 1:31pm Oct 16, 2007 1:31pm
Quoting bullrock
You need this Chris:
http://fxlabs.oanda.com/cgi/fxlabs.pl?id=4

You're the best! Thanks!
  • #1,388
  • Oct 16, 2007 1:36pm Oct 16, 2007 1:36pm
Quoting bullrock
Well done. This is a good strategy like that. A little bit reflects my daily strategy. Also for example if the previous week closed higher than the one before go long or vice versa. Or can play with higher high/lower high and the lower low/lower high thing.
Are you using RSI like your daily 3 bar scalp method?

Chris
  • #1,389
  • Oct 16, 2007 1:52pm Oct 16, 2007 1:52pm
Quoting Cmartin371
Are you using RSI like your daily 3 bar scalp method?

Chris
No. It seems that the more filter I am using the less profitable whatever system I am talking about. After I have removed it and engaging myself immedaitely (no channel) based on the expected probabilities (price action) the profitability jumped by a mutiplier... Well the risk too but that is a different story.
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  • #1,390
  • Oct 16, 2007 1:58pm Oct 16, 2007 1:58pm
Quoting bullrock
No. It seems that the more filter I am using the less profitable whatever system I am talking about. After I have removed it and engaging myself immedaitely (no channel) based on the expected probabilities (price action) the profitability jumped by a mutiplier... Well the risk too but that is a different story.
Well you have opened my eyes with your insights and continue to monitor your Daily method and posts here on the Weekly. I am using what I am learning and look forward to continued improvement in my trading. Thanks for all you do!

Chris
  • #1,391
  • Oct 16, 2007 2:01pm Oct 16, 2007 2:01pm
Quoting Cmartin371
Well you have opened my eyes with your insights and continue to monitor your Daily method and posts here on the Weekly. I am using what I am learning and look forward to continued improvement in my trading. Thanks for all you do!

Chris
You're welcome...
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  • #1,392
  • Oct 16, 2007 2:04pm Oct 16, 2007 2:04pm
Quoting Cmartin371
Well you have opened my eyes with your insights and continue to monitor your Daily method and posts here on the Weekly. I am using what I am learning and look forward to continued improvement in my trading. Thanks for all you do!

Chris
PPL LOVE to overcomplicate things. I tell ya how simple FX is. You look at the open of the next bar (daily). If low is higher of the previous than the one before it is bullish if lower the low it is bearish. Then you buy at the market set SL 50 pips TP 150 pips. Leve running untilt SL or TP hit. Start over. This averages 7-8 pips a day. Have fun.
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  • #1,393
  • Oct 16, 2007 2:12pm Oct 16, 2007 2:12pm
I can prove with calculations that the indicators, no matter which one, are no better than a sophiticated random number generator. If you use three then you have three of them. Less than 40% probability. Down to this the long term success lies in diversisifcation and actually money and position management. Often the money = position....
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  • #1,394
  • Oct 16, 2007 2:14pm Oct 16, 2007 2:14pm
This is phenomenal post found somewhere and it is true word by word. I had the same findings recently. Read it.

Quoting Craig
Someone (a non-trader) was watching me looking at a chart the other day and asked 'what are you looking for?'...I thought, how do I explain this?

I then had a little epiphany, 'I'm trying to figure out what everone one else is thinking', instead of looking for signals, I guess what I'm actually trying to do is get a handle on market psychology, what are the market players thinking. You look at the way the market tests a certain level, you don't know which way the market will go, but you become tuned into areas of 'interest'.

I know this all sounds very 'new age' & vauge, but this seems to be the way the market works, I have tried many data driven approaches (I have a degree in Mathematics and work in IT), but the market is simply too non-linear and chaotic. It's like weather prediction, you know a storm is coming, but until it arrives you can't really say exactly what will happen.

I just don't see how simple summation operations (like the ones which underlie most indicators) can really help in such an enviroment. Some indicators (BB, CCI) are based on standard dev. calculations, it has been common knowledge that markets are not normally distributed for years, yet people persist in trying to apply these indicators.

Weather forcasters have supercomputers number crunching 24/7, and they still can't get it right, yet people seem to think simple moving averages are somehow going to constitute an edge in the market. This, once again, is like averaging the last 5 days temperature to predict tommorow's temperature.

In saying this I am not dismissing automated trading, I just think people are barking up the wrong tree trying to use 'signals' from indicators. Yet even when systems prove flawed (e.g. Firebird / Phoenix) people still devote endless hours trying to curve fit and 'filter' the system, all they are really getting is a great random number generator. It's like people just don't want to accept what is right in front of thier eyes.

Even when people accept they have to learn to trade, they still want easy ways out, witness SRDC, a whole empire built on common trading tools (daily high/low, Fibonacci). Yet people still want to boil it down to rules, the rate at which SRDC has grown into a cult of 'Woodie' like proportions is simply amazing. Don't get me started on this whole 'gurus' crapola...

I have turned this into a off topic rant, time to shut the f**k up
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  • #1,395
  • Oct 16, 2007 6:32pm Oct 16, 2007 6:32pm
Bullrock

I have been lurking and learning and wonder if you could explain a little more or show with a screen shot the "If low is higher of the previous than the one before it is bullish if lower the low it is bearish" comment in your post 1392?

Many thanks
learn, profit, share
  • #1,396
  • Oct 16, 2007 11:46pm Oct 16, 2007 11:46pm
Simple stuff
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,397
  • Oct 17, 2007 11:00am Oct 17, 2007 11:00am
I jsut would like to tell here to make sure that everyone understands very well what I am trying to stay.. This is a very good system/concept and anyone should be able to adapt successfully to their taste.
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  • #1,398
  • Oct 17, 2007 11:27am Oct 17, 2007 11:27am
Quoting bullrock
I jsut would like to tell here to make sure that everyone understands very well what I am trying to stay.. This is a very good system/concept and anyone should be able to adapt successfully to their taste.

I hear ya man! Bull, if your 100SL is hit do you SAR from that point? I got stopped out on G/Y and G/U so far this week with 100SL. Both were long entries from the 50/60 pip straddle. I noticed that once it hit my SL for both it shot right back up so I am glad I did not take the SAR at this point. My U/Y short hit my 25% target for 1st lot but retraced. Stops were moved to BE, not sure where it stands right now. E/U long is stuck in a 50 pip range, but on the negative side for me and my U/CHF was negative when I left for work this morning.

I will definitely take some of the recent advice here for next week, but MM will primarily stay the same.
  • #1,399
  • Oct 17, 2007 11:29am Oct 17, 2007 11:29am
The other thing is that it is horribly difficult to make a consistently profitable mechanical daytrading system that works accross currencies reliably in the long term. Weekly/daily strategies are much more stable and have a better chance accross currencies in the long term
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  • #1,400
  • Oct 17, 2007 11:32am Oct 17, 2007 11:32am
Quoting Cmartin371
I hear ya man! Bull, if your 100SL is hit do you SAR from that point? I got stopped out on G/Y and G/U so far this week with 100SL. Both were long entries from the 50/60 pip straddle. I noticed that once it hit my SL for both it shot right back up so I am glad I did not take the SAR at this point. My U/Y short hit my 25% target for 1st lot but retraced. Stops were moved to BE, not sure where it stands right now. E/U long is stuck in a 50 pip range, but on the negative side for me and my U/CHF was negative when I left for work this morning.

I will definitely take some of the recent advice here for next week, but MM will primarily stay the same.
Look. It is difficult to tell what is best in the long term SAR or not SAR. In one currency it works in another doesnt. One concept that might help is that you stick with the interest rate positive direction. ALWAYS. So if you have been stopped out. You put the entry back where it was originally...
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