Fibonacci GONE WILD

UPDATE: 4HR CAD/JPY

Possible triple top or poised for a breakout?

UPDATE: USD/JPY 1HR

The expected bounce occured at the 23% fib level and never returned. Price eventually made its way past the critical level of 117.22. As of now, price is caught between the 76% and 100% fib. There has not been an hourly bar to close above or below these levels since NY open. I'll be looking for a bar close at those levels for an indication of price direction. However, it's halfway through the trading day on Friday, so it might not happen.

4HR USD/CAD

While trying out a different trading range, I saw this symmetry.

Is this the same southernmind that used to sit in globalfx radio room?

And by your charts, I see you are getting on to seeing the true power of horizontal support and resistance.

Clockwork71

Yes, it's me clockwork.

Hi Bro,
Nice job, you have re-enkindled my fibo mind. Am a S/R dominated chart trader. I followed your thead last week and made my trading easier. Good job and keep it up.

However I need a little lecture on how you superimpose the secondary on the main. I mean the fib lines you refer to as being 'copy' of the original. In other words, how do you pre-draw fib lines when the candles are yet to form?
Thanks

Dee

Thank you for your compliment Dee.

The secondary fib lines, or copy, are based on a trading range/pattern that price breaks out of and set up on the high or low of that range/pattern. They are indicated by the yellow arrows on the pound/yen daily chart I have provided below. Once I have drawn fibs on the range, I make a copy of them and then pull the copy up where its bottom line touches the high of the trading range or I pull it down where its top line touches the low of the trading range. That's all there is to it!!!

UPDATE: I changed some of the wording in order to make the method more understandable.

Here is a 4hr chart for the Euro/Yen. The yellow arrows indicate the high and low of the trading range which the blue fibs are drawn on. I've encircled the areas where price showed good support/resistance at fib lines.

Thanks Bro,
You make my day. Although was a little rough with MT 4 but easy on my Accucharts. I have always been an occassional one stroke fibo drawer when all things seem to converge so easily on the higher chat. Your entire thread was meant for me to bring back fibo; one of my early days trading weapons. Its now being considered to join the front line of my trading ambush.

Happy trading.
Dee

I decided to do a backtest on Pound/Yen to see if there were any noticable support/resistance at key levels before it took the big fall. I've encircled those levels on the daily chart. The arrows indicate the high/low of the trading range for the original fib drawing. Notice how price made it's last high at the 23% fib level. Something to take note of as we move forward in time.

Well folks, a new trading week has come upon us yet again offering another opportunity to make or lose money. I have spent time over the weekend drawing new charts and refining old ones. Going forward, I'll post a daily and a lower timeframe chart (4hr, 2hr, 1hr, etc) together at certain times to reflect the short and long term possibilities. The show of support and resistance on one could set up the target on the other. The yellow arrows on the chart will indicate the points I used to draw my original fib levels. There will be times where I probably won't use the symmetry method and just use fibs in the standard way with extension levels.

Starting the week off is Dollar/Yen with a daily (1st chart) and 2hr chart. If there is continued momentum to the upside, I see price making its way to the 23% fib (118.20) on the daily where a possible reversal might occur. Price has already shown support today on the 2hr chart at the 76% (117.39) fib level which I have encircled. There is a good chance it will encounter resistance at the 23% fib level (117.78, which showed resistance last week) coupled with the 50% fib (117.82/red line) of the fall from 124.14. It goes without saying that 118.00 is a big level to watch as well.

For the downside, on the daily I would look for a retest of the 100%/0% fibs (117.13) and the red 38% fib (116.39). On the 2hr chart, I would look for price to retest the 76% (117.39), 50% (117.19), or 23% (116.99).

All of the typing in that last post gave me a headache (lol) so I'm not going to include any price projections and just let the charts speak for themselves. I'll add any commentary or highlight any areas of support/resistance. Here we have the Pound/Yen daily and 2hr chart. On the daily, price currently sits above the 61% fib level (238.95, red line) of the mighty fall from 251.00. It had a bounce off it earlier today. The white 50% fib lies at 239.60. On the 2hr chart, the 76% fib (238.97) almost coincides with the the 61% level I mentioned.

USD/CAD 4HR

The 76% fib is at 0.9730 and the 61% fib is at 0.9696.

EUR/USD DAILY & 4HR

The white 23% fib on the daily sits at 2.0360 and the 0%/100% fib lines on the 4hr sit at 2.0367. The high of Friday was 2.0364. Also, the red 61% daily fib is at 2.0272 and the blue 76% 4hr fib is at 2.0251.

Thus far, Pound/Yen has topped at the 61% fib and Euro/Yen has topped at the 76% fib.

Didn't read through every post, I admit, so if this was mentioned already ignore, but you are drawing Fibs in the opposite direction.

If in a uptrend Fibs are drawn 0 from the high and 100 at the low. You can't have a retracement of an uptrend with the fib numbers going lower.

Also although I am not a MetaTrader user, I think you can have your 2nd set of Fibs up above by entering (-) minus numbers in the inputs? Someone else might be able to tell you better.

Well southermind Im glad you found about fibs but nothing new here just about every good tech trader in the world will trade with them and that is why you will see price sometime hit a fib and change direction (if you have your fibs correctly) for me I have 3 fibs on my char 1hr 4hr and daily all in a different color I use these to help determine trades and exits also by haveing these 3 on it shows me fib clusters and I watch these closely.

On a side note I find it funny that there are some who look at this thread and dismiss using fibs (not smart trading IMO)


Also as Suntrader pointed out you do have SOME of them drawn backwards your downtrend is correct but you uptrend is wrong. Your the 100's and 0's are at the same place for a uptrend and downtrend


Keep using fibs they are a great tool

Thank you for your comments Suntrader and mhughes104. I guess you can say that I have developed a habit in drawing fibs from in whichever direction I needed my extensions drawn, which would sometimes cause the fibs to be drawn in the reverse direction, so I got to the point of not really caring if they were backwards or forwards since the lines would be in the same position. I'll be mindful of which way I draw them moving forward to reflect the trend of the range.

Here is what I am mean by using (-) minus fib numbers, although this is with TradeStation it can be done in MetaTrader and other software as well.