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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,741
  • Oct 12, 2007 11:39am Oct 12, 2007 11:39am
I like u chart islander!
but it is more --sort of long movement chart isn't it?
Because, short term the Geppy is pulling back to it previous bearish channel before a head of rebound

Quoting Islander
Not the best bullish bat, but the confluence of support in the 237.40 / 50 area does make me happier with my long. We do need to see UJ above its DP of 117.35 AND cable moving up from its M1 at 2.0254 to get a decent rally going. The 238 level is my first target, then the DP at 238.62
  • #13,742
  • Oct 12, 2007 11:51am Oct 12, 2007 11:51am
Quoting karmostaji
It's just amazing combining your own strategy with these patterns. we also have a GU 30m bearish butterfly, but it could go upto 0383 before reversing.
Off the 5min - measuring the bearish butterfly, it looks as if its just completed in the 12:50edt bar. For this, the total "wing span" is 3 bars out in 12 hours and the right wing 1 bar out. The next time line is due 14 bars after the NY close which would make a very unbalanced pattern. TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,743
  • Edited 11:31pm Oct 12, 2007 11:26pm | Edited 11:31pm
This mornings low came in on a big confluence of support trend lines, fib level, and a sliding parallel fork median…… a good low risk entry came on the .50 retrace (down to the retest of the lower median not seen) of the first push.

If this is indeed the building of the right shoulder, look to enter on the retrace of the initial down thrust, price is still technically in an uptrend and has not been able to breach any of the swing lows that have been put in on this bull run.

Just personal preference, and not trying to step in front of a speeding train.

Fwiw,

p.s. Imho, a breach of the previous high and we are headed to the 241.75 / 242 area next week
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  • #13,744
  • Oct 13, 2007 1:31am Oct 13, 2007 1:31am
Quoting auxesis
This mornings low came in on a big confluence of support trend lines, fib level, and a sliding parallel fork median…… a good low risk entry came on the .50 retrace (down to the retest of the lower median not seen) of the first push.

If this is indeed the building of the right shoulder, look to enter on the retrace of the initial down thrust, price is still technically in an uptrend and has not been able to breach any of the swing lows that have been put in on this bull run.

Just personal preference, and not trying to step in front of a speeding train.

Fwiw,

p.s. Imho, a breach of the previous high and we are headed to the 241.75 / 242 area next week
very nice charts, experienced usage of the shifted PFs
keep it up man, may be you will group the small number of pitchforkers on this forum
  • #13,745
  • Oct 14, 2007 5:00am Oct 14, 2007 5:00am
Quoting winwise
I like u chart islander!
but it is more --sort of long movement chart isn't it?
Because, short term the Geppy is pulling back to it previous bearish channel before a head of rebound
Its an hourly chart, snapshot taken at 3:52am edt - in the 9am CET candle on the chart which is on Central European Time (GMT +2 / NY +6) - thus 8 mins before the candle closed.

I was suggesting a bounce as far as the daily pivot at 238.62 and entered a long trade - and got out too early!

As we now know, the bounce has been strong and has so far passed the 78% retrace of its last fall - i.e. the right hand wing - so I think we can say that this was another good prediction from a harmonic pattern. Here is the chart updated to Fridays close.

As I´m new to the use of harmonic patters - thank you Zoran - I´m still learning from other members and developing a methodogy for their use. My impression so far is that they are best used on the 15m , 30m and hourly charts.

Below - chart updated to Fridays close
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,746
  • Edited 3:31am Oct 15, 2007 2:48am | Edited 3:31am
Good morning,

I'm long again this morning and still long from last week. We are at a critical level again and may take profit on my last position depending how price reacts around trend lines (see chart) and then the 240 level also H5.

Also we are now in a channel on the 4h chart and have not reached the mid point, in my view this may help longs.

The Magenta trend lines are daily ones the dark blue t/l is the lower side of the channel 4h chart.

Edit: Second long closed at 239.89 +52
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  • #13,747
  • Oct 15, 2007 3:08am Oct 15, 2007 3:08am
Good morning - I hope everyone´s had a relaxing weekend.

Since the bounce from the completion of the pattern on the chart posted above and the strong 8am edt candle on Friday, we´ve had 16 hours of consolidation. The Frankfurt Hour was unusually flat and now there´s some buying from the Brits. Above, there is Thursdays high of 239.90 - also the Monthly Pivot. If this breaks, last weeks high is at 240.38 and then there´s the Weekly R1 at 240.87.

UJ is still holding under its 50% retrace off its Daily chart -117.86 - also its Daily R1, additionally, it has a possible Bearish Bat at a minimum completion....IF it breaks up, next stop would be its 61.8% fibbo at 119.32 - also the maximum for the BB pattern.

Cable is trading around its Weekly Pivot of 2.0360 and last week held between its WR1 at 2.0475 and WS1 at 2.0240.

All are above their respective Daily Pivots and the intra day trends are up - just - so IF cable and UJ rally together, we will see a move above the 240 level - towards 241 possibly, but lets remember the possibility of a "Big Ben" fakeout!

I took an early long scalp off my 1 min chart and have already taken partials, now trailing a stop behind the 1m 34ema
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,748
  • Edited 4:39am Oct 15, 2007 4:27am | Edited 4:39am
Nothing has really changed with my positions. I'm still holding shorts for the longer term with the main target being around the mid 231 region. I may take some off at 234 and hold some for a potential 221 target though most will be banked around 231.5 should it print.

Now, if this upward move continues and exceeds the recent high 240.50+ then I will start to reverse my shorts into longs with targets of 244, 247 and holding some for a potential 251 target.

At the moment we are at a faily strong brick wall that has normally taken about 2 weeks to break, so being on the underside of the wall I will remain bearish but gradually turn bullish if it starts to fracture. At the moment we have been lingering around this wall for a week and we should find out this week whether it holds or breaks. Either way, I believe the deciding move should be a big one.

In the mean time, I will enter intraday moves as I see them.
  • #13,749
  • Oct 15, 2007 4:43am Oct 15, 2007 4:43am
Here is a chart. The grey line is the wall.
Attached Image
  • #13,750
  • Oct 15, 2007 6:40am Oct 15, 2007 6:40am
Quoting Zoran
Hi Chris

I have to admit that I was initially against 1kt and I'm still uncertain about it.

The Trading Room section has not been very successful as there is just general chit-chat from what I have read. Nothing too helpful that you can't find in other non-1kt threads.

But I believe that some people may be drawn to the comments/analysis made by 1kt members and therefore, increase the interest in this thread. I am keen to see other views - and your charts have certainly made me see things that I would otherwise have missed.

I intend to post more of my analysis in this thread rather than others but I would like to see more interest.

Anyway, keep up the good work!
Good Morning Zoran,

I agree with your comments on 1KT, remember you making some interesting ones in the members lounge a while back too.

The basic concept of 1KT is very good and I think it will take a little time to evolve to a point where it may become an excellent source of knowledge and reference and discussion.

It will be nice to have more people posting here, but I hope the focus will remain on meaningful analysis, Auslanco's thread has a problem with way to many unnecessary posts to the point where I probably on bother to read around 5% of the thread and therefore miss very useful information.

Nice if I have helped a trader such as yourself Zoran, your analysis along with Islander and many others here on FF has assisted my trading no end.

I find my trading is very much on a steep learning curve, I made a conscious decision a while back to approach my trading differently, to approach trading from a basic position of common sense to interpret what I see on the chart without to much influence from elsewhere, I listen but do my own thing. I ditched all the indicators (they all looked after the fact to me from day one, whatever they told you could see on the charts anyway). No disrespect to anyone who uses them in the right hands they I'm sure are very profitable, just never worked for me. My son is always telling me 'you have to think outside the box dad' (clever sod).

Like everything in life most things are easy when you know how!! (not that its by any means easy yet LOL)
  • #13,751
  • Oct 15, 2007 6:49am Oct 15, 2007 6:49am
We have R1 at 240.14 and H5 at 240. May just turn out to be good support now!!!!!!?????
  • #13,752
  • Oct 15, 2007 6:49am Oct 15, 2007 6:49am
Quoting Zoran
Here is a chart. The grey line is the wall.

Looks like 240.50 is holding and we're locked in thi 237ish 240ish range
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #13,753
  • Oct 15, 2007 7:46am Oct 15, 2007 7:46am
As we are still locked in a trading range, I´m continuing taking short term trades off the 5m and 1m charts.

I took a good buy in the Frankfurt Hour that then stalled at the MR1 and pulled back to the rising 34 ema (agua) for a nice add on buy which - helped by UJ aligning with cable - rushed up to the top 200ema band. I took a short scalp there for the pull back towards the 34 ema and am now flat waiting to see what the US traders do - so far the Dow Future is flat.
Attached Image
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,754
  • Oct 15, 2007 7:51am Oct 15, 2007 7:51am
Quoting DutchTrader
Looks like 240.50 is holding and we're locked in thi 237ish 240ish range
The resistance (grey line) is fairly thick so I would expect a few bounces off it (at deeper levels).

But is it thick enough to exhaust the bulls?
  • #13,755
  • Oct 15, 2007 7:55am Oct 15, 2007 7:55am
Quoting Zoran
The resistance (grey line) is fairly thick so I would expect a few bounces off it (at deeper levels).

But is it thick enough to exhaust the bulls?
UJ just made a new high, 127% of XA for UJ is 118.34

It all depends on UJ at the moment IMO
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #13,756
  • Oct 15, 2007 7:56am Oct 15, 2007 7:56am
Quoting Zoran
The resistance (grey line) is fairly thick so I would expect a few bounces off it (at deeper levels).

But is it thick enough to exhaust the bulls?
Only time will tell I need to see a convincing break
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #13,757
  • Oct 15, 2007 8:48am Oct 15, 2007 8:48am
Quoting karmostaji
UJ just made a new high, 127% of XA for UJ is 118.34

It all depends on UJ at the moment IMO
there goes UJ
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #13,758
  • Oct 15, 2007 8:48am Oct 15, 2007 8:48am
Quoting karmostaji
there goes UJ
Down, Down, Down
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #13,759
  • Edited 10:14am Oct 15, 2007 9:26am | Edited 10:14am
UJ is now in the target area both time and pricewise to complete a Bearish Butterfly on its hourly chart - BUT this pattern could still extend up by another 100 pips and last until its next hourly time line at 5pm EDT today.

Likewise, cable may be completing another bearish pattern on its hourly chart with its final time line as this or the next hourly candle.

GJ may also have completed a large bearish butterfly on its 4 hour chart and also has a current time line in this candle.

I see falling momentum on both the hourly and 30 min charts and we now have a lower high on the 5 min chart - BUT the trend is still up on the 5min chart and will remain so until there is a closed candle under a falling 34 ema.

The Dow Futures are now -58, which should keep UJ under pressure.

So I see a number of bearish signs which need to be confirmed by lower price action - preferably under the 240 level. NB I´ve taken a partial short at 240.38 off my 1 min chart and will add on confirmation.

Edit: Target of +100 hit, now flat and waiting for a pull bavk towards the 50% retrace and prior resistance around 239.85
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,760
  • Oct 15, 2007 11:38am Oct 15, 2007 11:38am
We have now had an hour and a half of consolidation around the 239.50 area with two spikes towards the 38% retrace at 239.75 - but with no further attempt to get back to even the 50% retrace. I now suspect that the bulls have run out of steam and that there will be an afternoon sell off in the Dow which will pull UJ and GJ down.

So I have a partial sell at 239.54, will add on a break to new lows or a pull back to the 50% area....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
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