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Why I can't win

  • #41
  • Jul 4, 2007 4:07pm Jul 4, 2007 4:07pm
I have no clue how long Iandekoker (spelling?) has been trading, though I am under the assumption that he has yet to have -9000 pip drawdowns, perhaps once this occurs he will decide to start exiting trades? Again, this drawdown does not appeal to me. Though I still agree with the sound money management, discipline and trend following that certainly has to be applied to trade this way. When the great unwinding occurs on the JPY pairs, perhaps he will be around to report how he trades them. [/quote]



I have been trading live for 4 months now, before that i tried demo for 6 months. So that would make me a newby i suppose, always eager to learn from people who has something worth learning from like Dirk du Toit (Dr. forex) and my mentor Rene Hedley.

Currently i have 10 trades open, each of them can take a 5 000 plus pips swing against me. Currently the market is less than 500 pips against each of my trades. All those open trades together is not even 10% of my account so far. So i have more than enough room to manouvre thanks to my gearing of only 1:7.

Sorry but i dont trade JPY. It's just too wild currency for me even though i think it is a very undervalued currency right now. I only trade GBP/USD and EUR/USD and on daily charts and nothing else. They suite my personality and way of trading better

ps....i do have 2 questions about the 9000 pip downdrown u were talking to

1. Why would someone have a 9000 pip drawdown on EUR/USD if since trading started there has only been a 5900 pip range in the history of this currency pair if i am correct. The lowest = 0.84. The highest = 1.43. Please correct me if i am wrong? (So you might have a 5900 drawdown if u went short in julie 2001 and are still holding ur position. But then again that person might also need a pair of new glasses cause he read his trend wrong)

2. Why wud someone have a 9000 pips drawdown on EUR/USD if u trade with the trend which happens to be an uptrend since middle 2001. Yes the market might retrace a few hundrend pips but those are all seen good buy oppertunities.
  • #42
  • Jul 4, 2007 4:29pm Jul 4, 2007 4:29pm
Quoting zobo
I just can't imagine what he would be thinking if he short GBP/JPY in year 2000. 9000+ pips down, paying tons in interest and only god knows when the trade will turn positive.
Never.
its just money
  • #43
  • Jul 4, 2007 5:24pm Jul 4, 2007 5:24pm
Quoting iandekoker


2. Why wud someone have a 9000 pips drawdown on EUR/USD if u trade with the trend which happens to be an uptrend since middle 2001. Yes the market might retrace a few hundrend pips but those are all seen good buy oppertunities.
I totally agree to trade with the trend, but it is easy to see now that they were good buying opportunities, since the trend did in fact continue.
  • #44
  • Jul 4, 2007 8:26pm Jul 4, 2007 8:26pm
well to date it is 5900...we wont know how much it will clear in the near future? 9000? possibly...yeah. Somehow i think it would be enough to ride huge economic drawdowns, no? Definitely there has to be a maximum tresh hold, you need be a little more open minded, think and accept the various outcomes and possibilities based on probabilities. To say that you will never lose a trade, you can still be right, period, then again since you still right, you have bragging rights. Just my humble opinion.

regards,
jest
  • #45
  • Jul 4, 2007 8:45pm Jul 4, 2007 8:45pm
I always enjoy reading other traders sharing thoughts about the mental aspect. It's huge, so very very important.

I've learned through the years that any market (currencies maybe a little more) is like an extremely powerful tool. In the wrong hands someone could become a one armed, six toed destitute cripple. If used correctly it can create wonderful masterpieces.

Once knowledge is learned and honed the mental aspect of trading becomes even more important. The best way I can sum up my opinion, without typing here for an hour, is this: Trading SHOULD be relatively boring if done correctly. I forget who said this but it was a very accomplished trader (Buffet perhaps?)

Anyway, nice thread. Keep it honest. Being honest with yourself starts with being honest with others.
  • #46
  • Jul 4, 2007 9:07pm Jul 4, 2007 9:07pm
Quoting Pickensrulz

Once knowledge is learned and honed the mental aspect of trading becomes even more important. The best way I can sum up my opinion, without typing here for an hour, is this: Trading SHOULD be relatively boring if done correctly. I forget who said this but it was a very accomplished trader (Buffet perhaps?)
It was Soros. He said "if you are having fun investing, you are likely to lose money, good investing is boring".

LOL
  • #47
  • Jul 4, 2007 9:14pm Jul 4, 2007 9:14pm
Quoting luqmanz
It was Soros. He said "if you are having fun investing, you are likely to lose money, good investing is boring".

LOL
That's a great quote and so true.
Most successful traders will tell you that they're fairly bored with their trading.
I hope to have that problem very soon.

Tom
  • #48
  • Jul 4, 2007 9:22pm Jul 4, 2007 9:22pm
I might be wrong but I think what Soros meant with "trading should be boring" should not be taken literally. It shouldn't be adrenaline-rush filled. Boring by exact definition would mean not very interesting or mind-stimulating and instead repetitive BS. Far from making a billion plus in one trade type of thing and every day in trading is a new challenge. Not boring IMO.

A couple of lines some have come with: Work is a four letter word. If you find a job or career you enjoy, you'll never work a day in your life.
  • #49
  • Jul 4, 2007 9:45pm Jul 4, 2007 9:45pm
I've been day trading about a year to date. I have trades all major pairs except Aussies going on paper 24-7 (make that 24 - 5 1/2!) while I trade live. I trade STRICTLY with the trades and let all my paper trades run their course. Since I ALWAYS with the trend ( going back several years) I have NEVER seen a trade reverse over 500 pips yet. Even spikes. Even yen carry unwinds. Even short term reversals not related to yen.

Maybe I just haven't traded long enough?

I do take pretty big draw downs, though. My personal worst for live was going short on USD/CHF on May 7. I finally got my $$$ back yesterday! It went up about 375 pips on me and hung up my $$$ for - a record -- 2 months! And I almost had a heart attack when it spiked before the market opened during the G8 Summit. I made more than 400 pips though placing short term hedges on it many days.

Don't think the $$ was worth the wear and tear on my central nervous system, though.
  • #50
  • Jul 4, 2007 9:49pm Jul 4, 2007 9:49pm
Quoting iandekoker

1. Why would someone have a 9000 pip drawdown on EUR/USD if since trading started there has only been a 5900 pip range in the history of this currency pair if i am correct. The lowest = 0.84. The highest = 1.43. Please correct me if i am wrong? (So you might have a 5900 drawdown if u went short in julie 2001 and are still holding ur position. But then again that person might also need a pair of new glasses cause he read his trend wrong)
.
Extremely unlikely this would occur on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The reference of the 9000 pip drawdown was to the crashes of the GBP/JPY in the early and late 1990s. If one were to be trading the trend on that pair and got stuck, it would be quite devestating. I wouldn't suspect you have to worry about that though with the pairs you trade.

The EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF currencies also would seem to be optimal for this form of trading. EUR/CHF 30 year range is about 6000 pips. Too much for me though, too scary to not be willing to take a loss. I think in the long run though you will be fine.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #51
  • Jul 4, 2007 9:51pm Jul 4, 2007 9:51pm
I've been day trading about a year to date. I have trades all major pairs except Aussies going on paper 24-7 (make that 24 - 5 1/2!) while I trade live. I trade STRICTLY with the trends and let all my paper trades run their course. Since I ALWAYS with the trend ( going back several years) I have NEVER seen a trade reverse over 500 pips yet. Even spikes. Even yen carry unwinds. Even short term reversals not related to yen.

Maybe I just haven't traded long enough?

I do take pretty big draw downs, though. My personal worst for live was going short on USD/CHF on May 7. I finally got my $$$ back yesterday! It went up about 375 pips on me and hung up my $$$ for - a record -- 2 months! And I almost had a heart attack when it spiked before the market opened during the G8 Summit. I made more than 400 pips though placing short term hedges on it many days.

Don't think the $$ were worth the wear and tear on my central nervous system, though.
  • #52
  • Jul 4, 2007 9:52pm Jul 4, 2007 9:52pm
I've been day trading about a year to date. I have trades all major pairs except Aussies going on paper 24-7 (make that 24 - 5 1/2!) while I trade live. I trade STRICTLY with the trends and let all my paper trades run their course. Since I ALWAYS trade with the trend ( going back several years) I have NEVER seen a trade reverse over 500 pips yet. Even spikes. Even yen carry unwinds. Even short term reversals not related to yen.

Maybe I just haven't traded long enough?

I do take pretty big draw downs, though. My personal worst for live was going short on USD/CHF on May 7. I finally got my $$$ back yesterday! It went up about 375 pips on me and hung up my $$$ for - a record -- 2 months! And I almost had a heart attack when it spiked before the market opened during the G8 Summit. I made more than 400 pips though placing short term hedges on it many days.

Don't think the $$ were worth the wear and tear on my central nervous system, though.
  • #53
  • Jul 4, 2007 10:22pm Jul 4, 2007 10:22pm
Quoting TradurGurl
I have NEVER seen a trade reverse over 500 pips yet. Even spikes. Even yen carry unwinds. Even short term reversals not related to yen.

Maybe I just haven't traded long enough?
GBP/JPY unwinded for around 1600 pips from 27th feb 07 to 5th March 07.
  • #54
  • Jul 4, 2007 10:50pm Jul 4, 2007 10:50pm
Quoting zobo
GBP/JPY unwinded for around 1600 pips from 27th feb 07 to 5th March 07.
Okay, I didn't see that one. That's because I was trading with the trend of a really deep unwind.
  • #55
  • Jul 5, 2007 12:39am Jul 5, 2007 12:39am
Wiz,

Aside from the ego problems others have highlighted and expanded upon, have you done a self check on some basic trading principles.

Here's a link to an article by Doug Zalesky, "The 25 Point Discipline for Day Trading", a 20+ year veteran of the CBOE, etc.

http://chuckhays.net/trading/25%20ru...%20trading.pdf

Find out how many of these points you (and everyone) violate each day.

Next, a big problem with traders is overtrading. Just because you CAN trade 24 hours a day if you want, that doesn't mean you have to or should. For years I would be the worlds greatest trader, until 2 pm came along, where I would give back all the profits I made that day, and often more. Now, I trade two time frames. From 12 midnight to about 3-3:30 AM in the fx futures, and from 6 AM to 11 AM in the emini's (S&P, Russel, Dow, Nasdaq) . I've usually made a small but disciplined profit by then. After that, I turn the trading platform off. I'm a bricklayer.

If you ever visit some of the online chat rooms liker Woodies CCI Club or John Carters TradeTheMarkets, you'll see some of the successful and disciplined traders call it quits for the day when they've made 20 points on the Dow, or 2 points on the ER or ES. And they've usually done that by 11 AM ET.

Last, keep your charts simple. I trade mostly on a tick chart, using a long EMA to establish the trend and a short MA for entries and exits. And I do use pivot points for exits, though I don't depend on them for currencies that much. Find the one or two strategies that consistantly works for you, and trade that.

See if any of the symptoms above appear in your trading, and make adjustments accordingly. They've helped me.

CarlC
  • #56
  • Jul 5, 2007 12:56am Jul 5, 2007 12:56am
Quoting TradurGurl
I've been day trading about a year to date. I have trades all major pairs except Aussies going on paper 24-7 (make that 24 - 5 1/2!) while I trade live. I trade STRICTLY with the trends and let all my paper trades run their course. Since I ALWAYS trade with the trend ( going back several years) I have NEVER seen a trade reverse over 500 pips yet. Even spikes. Even yen carry unwinds. Even short term reversals not related to yen.

Maybe I just haven't traded long enough?

I do take pretty big draw downs, though. My personal worst for live was going short on USD/CHF on May 7. I finally got my $$$ back yesterday! It went up about 375 pips on me and hung up my $$$ for - a record -- 2 months! And I almost had a heart attack when it spiked before the market opened during the G8 Summit. I made more than 400 pips though placing short term hedges on it many days.

Don't think the $$ were worth the wear and tear on my central nervous system, though.
Wow, 375 pips againdst you. Thats way too much,gurl. What would have happened if it had kept going? when were you going to say, uncle, admit that you were wrong and give up on the trade. I use Jackos trailing stop and anti hedge to stop this happening to me. the trailing stop stops me from blowing up my accoungt.
  • #57
  • Jul 5, 2007 3:04am Jul 5, 2007 3:04am
Quoting StockKJay
Extremely unlikely this would occur on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The reference of the 9000 pip drawdown was to the crashes of the GBP/JPY in the early and late 1990s. If one were to be trading the trend on that pair and got stuck, it would be quite devestating. I wouldn't suspect you have to worry about that though with the pairs you trade.

The EUR/GBP and EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF currencies also would seem to be optimal for this form of trading. EUR/CHF 30 year range is about 6000 pips. Too much for me though, too scary to not be willing to take a loss. I think in the long run though you will be fine.
have u ever tried trading USD/ZAR? i once did with GFX. Man you need a big account or balls of steel. I had neither so i left it. That currency can move almost 200-3000 pips in a day.....ridiculous....i nearly lost my account after trading that....and that is the same reason i dont like trading JPY.....lol
  • #58
  • Jul 5, 2007 3:47am Jul 5, 2007 3:47am
Quoting SunTrader
I might be wrong but I think what Soros meant with "trading should be boring" should not be taken literally. It shouldn't be adrenaline-rush filled. Boring by exact definition would mean not very interesting or mind-stimulating and instead repetitive BS. Far from making a billion plus in one trade type of thing and every day in trading is a new challenge. Not boring IMO.
For people like me who place a trade 2-4 times a month, it IS boring! I enjoy reading the news and fundamentals though.
Quote
A couple of lines some have come with: Work is a four letter word. If you find a job or career you enjoy, you'll never work a day in your life.
Quoted for truth. That's a Chinese proverb I think.
  • #59
  • Oct 14, 2007 7:29pm Oct 14, 2007 7:29pm
Wiz, I apreciate your honesty. Others that say they have never lost, pure stupid. You may have not lost yet......but, you will. Simple as that. Someday you will need to close your account for some reason or another. Perfection is not attainable in this world.
  • #60
  • Oct 14, 2007 7:59pm Oct 14, 2007 7:59pm
Quoting iandekoker
have u ever tried trading USD/ZAR? i once did with GFX. Man you need a big account or balls of steel. I had neither so i left it. That currency can move almost 200-3000 pips in a day.....ridiculous....i nearly lost my account after trading that....and that is the same reason i dont like trading JPY.....lol
You need to look at your position sizes. 1 pip is not always equal as a percentage movement. 1 pip on GBP/JPY is around half in terms of a percentage movement than that of USD/JPY. So it may be wise to chose your position sizes and equity risked accordingly..

This is a interesting thread! I have learnt it is best to stay humble to the market at all times. It's never a good idea to be cocky or think you are bigger than the market, it will end in tears.
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