Is GBP/ JPY going to 210?

Hello Everyone. This is my first thread and i am excited to be a part of your community. You all seem like VERY bright individuals and hopefully i can learn alot from All of you.


Anyway, I have been reading articles (like on Actionfx and DailyFX) stating that they think the GBP/ JPY will reach 210 before 250.

What are your thoughts? Do you think a turn will be taking place anytime soon?



TraderRon

I agree and I believe it's gonna happen soon

just curious... can u tell us why?

Well the answer is a specific NO

This is because on weekly charts we closed a candle above a very top secret indicator line, which means that the next week will be a consolidation to uptrend.

This also means that next week we will find usd/cad around 9521 levels, and should aud/usd break 9033 then we should see it above 9077

For gbpusd this should be around 508 levels.

As far as my analysis goes, we just recently had a retest of the highs from August of 1992, and that level proved to be significant resistance. Then we shot down all the way to 220 and are now having a test of the highs from August of 1998. Should that prove a significant resistance (which I expect it will from this week's doji candle), we will see a strong downtrend, at least to the 221-2 area.

andersenws

Well, I do think the dow is overvalued at present and may correct. If it does GBP/JPY will probably largely follow the dow. Its possible that it will hit 210 before 250, I would not like to commit either way at the moment because I think either are quite possible.

Yep either way is very possible especially with the setup right now, but I'm in favor of a short... I'll post up the pic in a sec

IMO yes.

Here's the pic of what I'm seeing so far...

As you can see G/J hasn't broken the 61.8% level or the top yellow line so no signal for long as of yet. Since there isn't a bear candle below the 61.8% level going through that bottom yellow line there is no signal for short either. So right now there really is a 50% chance either way.

You will want to go long if...
-A bullish candle appears completely above the 61.8% level (238.92) and closing at that level
[AND/OR]
-G/J breaks past that top yellow line
***TARGET: 251.07***

You will want to go short if...
-A bearish candle appears completely below the 61.8% level (238.92) and closing at that level
[AND/OR]
-G/J breaks past that bottom yellow line
***TARGET 1: 234.27***
***TARGET 2: 231.32***
***TARGET 3: 226.72***
***TARGET 4: 210.XX***

and this is my simple analysis targeting a lot of pips =P

-MoForce

Your insights are incredibly helpful. I'll definetly keep watch on the dow (as well as oil and g/y technicals) to try to find some clues on future price movement.

On the assumption that the g/y Does go down - we should be seeing SUBSTANTIAL gains from what i gather.

Possibly 1900 pips+ if it retraces to just the 221 level as AndrewsNews predicts. Or almost 2500 - 3000 pips if the 210 level is actually reached - as other news organizations predict.

Defintely something to watch for in the short term.




TraderRon

October = Month of Q3 profit releases.

If financial companies report HUGE losses, then JPY will start going home *again*.

However, as I learn from a Japanese trader, buy the dip.

210 you're kidding right? I see this as a great buying opportunity on the GBP/JPY. We would have to see signifant decreases in the USD/JPY to correlate with the GBP decrease. I'm seeing significant support on the dollar and the yen carry trade is in full effect. We have broken the 50 day moving average on the daily chart and we are currently in consolidation mode on the daily chart as price action attempts to penetrate the 70 and 100 moving averages. All these key moving averages have just begun to flow upward on the 4 hour chart, and I would not go against the trend. Not to mention the fact that the GBP is looking very good over the dollar. I think it would be crazy to short this monster just because of resistance on a previous weekly swing high. This head and shoulders formation we're seeing is just a psychological fakeout in my opinion. Perhaps my view is subjective considering the fact that I'm invested in the GBP/JPY, but I have hedge stop losses below the 50% fibonacci levels and, it is true, I have taken half of my gains off of the table in the form of a sell hedge stop, however, that's just proper money management and it is not based on fear of a decline.

Welcome to the Factory Ron,

While the timing remains a mystery the short answer is yes. Looking at monthly charts, G/J will hit even lower imho. It should revisit 205 area. I’d say within next 6-12 month period for sure, but there are only 2 sure things in life, so trade and be happy..

Do not guess Ron... Just follow the price... Let the price break 237 first... What if the price reach 240 again and move towards 241?

Hello raczekfx,

I saw you posted that you received the VWB III last year - I was on the Tunnel Trading site, on the extended period and then I went out of sight for a while. Now I came back to check and TT is nowhere to be seen - I will not judge Vegas, and I respected all that I read from him.

I am interested in the VWB III and you can e-mail me directly - tks.

Pepe :-))