Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

don't mind markam, he has been preaching this for as long as the thread was new.

actually i am looking for 4hr/1 hr strategy down, since 4 hr is still bearish(not cross up yet) and 1 hr already cross 50 line up..... and also the momentum in this last 4 hr is down..but... i might be wrong....

I agree with you HnP, I think that we may finally be headed for a 100 to 200 pip move downwards from this area. I won't be in until after the weekend however.

Shoulders take a while to build on the hourly. We need a few bars in there.

Hmm, I wouldn't be using the word "long" and "markam" in the same sentance if I was you. People will get confused.

Figures a Dow Spike in the last hour.

Just for the record... on my chart (I posted some pages ago in this thread) there was a break in the 4H trend to the downside and that still holds clearly so don't long GJ cuz we may a big downward movement next week.

For those who long, this maybe a good news http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

Virgin-Led Group May Buy Control of Northern Rock

Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=axwq.PYmQrXU

ok deleted on request. smile please

1. Open the "Navigator"
2. Under the "Indicators", drag the "Moving Average" and drop it onto the RSI
3. A pop up screen for Moving average will appear
4. Under "Parameters" select "Apply to: First Indicator's Data"

Thanks limcs, you are a gentleman and i owe you one

Here's the pic of what I'm seeing so far...

As you can see G/J hasn't broken the 61.8% level or the top yellow line so no signal for long as of yet. Since there isn't a bear candle below the 61.8% level going through that bottom yellow line there is no signal for short either. So right now there really is a 50% chance either way.

You will want to go long if...
-A bullish candle appears completely above the 61.8% level (238.92) and closing at that level
[AND/OR]
-G/J breaks past that top yellow line
***TARGET: 251.07***

You will want to go short if...
-A bearish candle appears completely below the 61.8% level (238.92) and closing at that level
[AND/OR]
-G/J breaks past that bottom yellow line
***TARGET 1: 234.27***
***TARGET 2: 231.32***
***TARGET 3: 226.72***
***TARGET 4: 210.XX***

-MoForce

Along with my analysis above and the fact that my indicator on the 4HR has showed a bearish G/J (What I was talking about before) I am biased to the downside, but still open to any long position.

-MoForce

to all those who celebrate Eid--all my best wishes for this festival
"Eid mubarak" ( i think thats the way to say it--correct me if im wrong)

analysis for the coming week:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...81#post1643681

Markam: you might find this interesting:

October 14, 2007
Banks May Pool Billions to Stop Securities Sell-off
By ERIC DASH
Several of the world’s biggest banks are in talks to put up about $75 billion in a backup fund that could be used to buy risky mortgage securities and other assets, a move designed to ease pressure on a crucial part of the credit markets that threatens the broader economy.

Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, along with several other financial institutions, have been meeting to come up with a plan to create a fund that could prevent a sharp sell-off in securities owned by bank-affiliated investment vehicles. The meetings, which began three weeks ago, have been orchestrated by senior officials at the Treasury Department, and the discussions have intensified in the last few days.

A broad framework for an agreement could be reached as early as tomorrow, according to people with knowledge of the discussions, but many important details still need to be hammered out. Another round of discussions is taking place this weekend, and it is still possible that the parties will not reach an agreement.

“Treasury is very serious about getting some solution in place to take away the fear hanging over the markets,” said Alex Roever, a credit analyst at JPMorgan Chase who has been following the discussions but is not involved in them. “It is a very challenging thing to do. There are so many parties involved and they all don’t agree.

The proposal echoes the 1998 bailout of the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management, when a group of big banks came together to prevent the fund from collapsing after it made a series of bad bets. And the current round of crisis-driven collaboration illustrates the heightened level of concern among both government and financial players.

While there are signs that the broader credit markets have begun to stabilize after the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates last month, a pocket of the commercial paper market remains under siege: structured investment vehicles, known as SIVs. The fear is that problems with these vehicles could infect the broader economy.

SIVs, which issue short-term notes to invest in longer-term securities with higher yields, are often organized by banks but are not actually owned or held by them. They are supposed to be financed through the issuance of commercial paper backed by pools of home loans and credit card debt, but the loss of confidence in the quality of subprime mortgage bonds has also tainted these securities.

Analysts say that investors have all but stopped buying SIV-affiliated commercial paper, and the worry is that the 30 or so SIVs will unload billions of dollars of mortgage-related assets all at once. That would put intense pressure on prices. As Wall Street firms and hedge funds mark value of similar investments they held to their new lower values, they face potentially huge hits to their profits.

Still, the impact on the biggest banks is even more severe. In times of crisis, they are committed — either legally or to maintain their reputations — to stepping in to buy those securities. Banks have already been buying significant amounts of commercial paper in recent weeks, even though they did not have to. But if they are forced to bring those assets onto their balance sheets, they might be less willing to lend to businesses and consumers. That could set off a credit crunch and thrust the economy into a recession.

The proposal being floated calls for the creation of a “Super-SIV,” or a SIV-like fund fully backed by several of the world’s biggest banks to provide emergency financing. The Super-SIV would issue short-term notes to finance the purchase of assets held by the SIVs affiliated with the banks, with the hope of reassuring investors.

But whether the banks would buy the assets directly or just buy the short-term debt is still unclear, according to people briefed on the situation. So are other aspects, like the amount of capital each bank would need to contribute, how it would be administrated, and the fee structures and cost burdens.

The effort to create a backup fund began about three weeks ago, when the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson, called a meeting in Washington that included the chief executives of Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan and other big banks. With Wall Street firms having almost no luck finding buyers for mortgage-backed securities and derivatives, Mr. Paulson wanted to see what could be done to relieve the bottleneck.

Several rounds of discussions followed — in Washington, New York and on conference calls — led by two senior Treasury Department officials: Robert Steel, the under secretary for domestic finance and a former Goldman Sachs executive who is a close adviser Mr. Paulson; and Anthony Ryan, a former investment banker who is now assistant Treasury secretary for financial markets.

Besides hearing from senior executives from each of the big banks, the group also sought ideas from others. Several big international banks, including Barclays and HSBC, have been asked about their interest in participating. The group also reached out to several of the major structured investment funds, as well as big institutional investors in the commercial paper markets.

I have been puzzling over that one since yesterday BB. It makes no sense that the banks would actually buy these assets, since there is no way they are worth their current valuation. Furthermore, there is no way they are going to increase in value in any kind of reasonable time frame.

My guess is that the federal government is either creating money for the banks or guaranteeing them against losses. In either case, it stinks to high heaven and is almost guaranteed to be illegal. It also stinks of desperation.

Also, if I was a large investor in one of the banks or funds involved in this plan, it would not reassure me. In fact, it would make me much more likely to pull my funds.

Unless, of course, I was assured that the US taxpayer was ultimately going to be the one left holding the bag.

Hope every had a good weekend so far..

Daily RSI is strongly pointing up and the price is above daily 5sma.

My target for Monday is 240.40- 50 before we see a possible intra-day reversal.

But the new daily bar didn't open yet?