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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,721
  • Oct 12, 2007 3:55am Oct 12, 2007 3:55am
Quoting Wolf.
Morning Islander,..... I'm with you long, nothing to do woth the bullish bat although its nice confirmation. I closed me short from last night and longed from the lower trend line and with the confluence of support you mention it would be silly not to take a long here even if it didn't end up working out.

I have reservations though and think this just may go lower, nothing I can put my finger on, after a small rally we may see it drop, Hope I'm wrong.

Edit: Just broken a declining t/l on the 5m chart, looking better.

Its the first touch of the t/l since formation so that is encouraging, also I have similar targets in mind.
At last, a little life - cable has now got above its 5m 34ema and just hit its 50% retrace of its last fall - I´m looking for around its 61.8% which is close to 2.0300 - a nice number! As long as UJ stays at or above its current level of 117.30 cable around 300 should allow GJ up towards is DP at 238.64
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,722
  • Edited 4:46am Oct 12, 2007 4:00am | Edited 4:46am
I´ve taken partials at +50, stop to 237.90 on remainder and next TP at 238.50

Edit: stop hit, now flat - might have been a bit too tight - we´ll see
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,723
  • Oct 12, 2007 5:26am Oct 12, 2007 5:26am
Bullish gartley/bat pattern forming on GU daily chart
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #13,724
  • Oct 12, 2007 7:09am Oct 12, 2007 7:09am
Quoting Pickensrulz
Looks like we're heading south. out of 1/4 pos at 237.9. short now.
Closing up. Looking to short at better levels. Flat until some better signals line up.
  • #13,725
  • Oct 12, 2007 7:40am Oct 12, 2007 7:40am
I expect one final wave up before the ship I've boarded starts its south bound journey. I got on a bit early and the cabin fees have not come cheaply but these are all good lessons for the next journey. I arrived early to ensure I didn't miss it (as I have in the past).

I am waiting for the potential right shoulder to complete, which looks possible by the bounce from the bullish bat. So I'm still waiting patiently - but I believe the ship will set sail shortly.

There have been plenty of opportunities to take some nice profit but I'm in for a longer journey. It could take a week or two to complete but I'm patient (as tought by the master).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #13,726
  • Oct 12, 2007 7:48am Oct 12, 2007 7:48am
Quoting Zoran
I expect one final wave up before the ship I've boarded starts its south bound journey. I got on a bit early and the cabin fees have not come cheaply but these are all good lessons for the next journey. I arrived early to ensure I didn't miss it (as I have in the past).

I am waiting for the potential right shoulder to complete, which looks possible by the bounce from the bullish bat. So I'm still waiting patiently - but I believe the ship will set sail shortly.

There have been plenty of opportunities to take some nice profit but I'm in for a longer journey. It could take a week or two to complete but I'm patient (as tought by the master).
It is right at your shoulder now and I hope that the tickets prices will not inflate more. This sudden move really came a bit unepected, as the US Retail had a very positive revision to it - GBPUSD nevertheless reacted the other way with a big timelag of 5-9 minutes. The Guppy followed suit! 239.22 now.
Keep my fingers crossed!!

Greetings
Gnat
  • #13,727
  • Oct 12, 2007 7:51am Oct 12, 2007 7:51am
test
  • #13,728
  • Oct 12, 2007 7:59am Oct 12, 2007 7:59am
Quoting Wolf.
Hello Gnat,

Very nice words thank you and after looking at your profile Gnat it is nice that two people have vouched on the same day who I would regard as serious professional traders.

Fine expertise…. that would be Islander your talking about I waffle on but can’t help thinking most of it is bollocks!

I have never been in the slightest bit bothered about becoming a 1KTer but it does boost the ego thanks.

On a side note do I have at least one thousand live trades?……,well actually yes. When 1KT was launched out of interest I started reckoning up my trades for just this year, stopped counting after January as its total came to 424 and I have traded live for two years now (shame most of those trades were losers lol). Maybe it should 1000 winning trades to become a 1KTer! Reduced it considerably now, down 5 to 10 per day. The phrase ‘practice makes perfect comes to mind’ thats what I'm hoping for anyway.

Regards,

Chris.
Hallo Chris!

Thank you also for the kind words there! And people who are just adding extra content that is worth the reading and contemplating, not thinking about 1kt and how amazingly great they will be by that, really deserve this status.
LOL ... and you know that your part of the dialog with Islander is not just bollocks! I had a good feeling vouching for both of you, as your combination is the attracting thing here!
And as your last paragraph shows - I did not even breach any rule as whom to vouch for or not!

Saw you last night on the Supernova main thread - just wanted to mention here that the main results will be found on the Journal by Qpip. And some sort of comedy goes on there too.

Greetings!
Gnat "Matt"
  • #13,729
  • Edited 10:02am Oct 12, 2007 9:26am | Edited 10:02am
Whilst we all know and use a variety of tools attempting to predict price levels, few are attempting the same in relation to the timing of moves and the areas when the market may be more liable to change direction or accelerate a move.

I have spent some time looking at some of the options in timing - some very esoteric like Wells Wilder / Jim Sloman´s Delta - some as basic as the fibbonacci tools used by Robert Miner and others.

I continue my research into this underused area of TA.

This week the US Stock Markets are in a "time window" additionally the whole of October is also a TW. Yesterday had numerous shorter term periods lining up and as we know now, new highs were made, followed by a sell off.

Confirmation is needed, but we might just have seen the high for now in the Dow etc. - lets see what next week brings.

Aside from the SM, I have been working on applying timing to FX - this is in my opinion more difficult owing to the 24 hour trading whose main centers of activity shift from Perth to Tokio to London / Frankfurt and then to New York / Chicago.

However, I do have daily time lines in GJ that are currently fall on October 13th - Saturday and also on Sunday - normally +/- 1 day - this means that yesterday could be in the time window. Allowing for the weekend this could move to Sunday / Monday +/- 1 day. Either way its around now!

I view these as "here something should happen" days - times when the market is more likely to change direction - or accererate its current move.

I´m also looking at shorter TFs to see what lines up in this period - no perfect matches so far.

As always, price action will confirm or negate this analysis.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,730
  • Oct 12, 2007 9:51am Oct 12, 2007 9:51am
Congrats Zoran... seems your shoulder is getting better!!
  • #13,731
  • Oct 12, 2007 9:51am Oct 12, 2007 9:51am
Quoting Gnat
Congrats Zoran... seems your shoulder is getting better!!
Zoran is the master of patterns
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #13,732
  • Oct 12, 2007 9:53am Oct 12, 2007 9:53am
Hi Islander

I have timing on my todo list as it's currently poor. I've been paying negative interest on my guppy short for a whole week so perhaps I need to invest into it sooner rather than later. Gann Square of 9 is what interests me. I have a few trader friends who use it often so I look out for their analysis.
  • #13,733
  • Oct 12, 2007 10:04am Oct 12, 2007 10:04am
Quoting Wolf.
I have never been in the slightest bit bothered about becoming a 1KTer but it does boost the ego thanks.
Hi Chris

I have to admit that I was initially against 1kt and I'm still uncertain about it.

The Trading Room section has not been very successful as there is just general chit-chat from what I have read. Nothing too helpful that you can't find in other non-1kt threads.

But I believe that some people may be drawn to the comments/analysis made by 1kt members and therefore, increase the interest in this thread. I am keen to see other views - and your charts have certainly made me see things that I would otherwise have missed.

I intend to post more of my analysis in this thread rather than others but I would like to see more interest.

Anyway, keep up the good work!
  • #13,734
  • Oct 12, 2007 10:16am Oct 12, 2007 10:16am
Quoting Zoran
Hi Islander

I have timing on my todo list as it's currently poor. I've been paying negative interest on my guppy short for a whole week so perhaps I need to invest into it sooner rather than later. Gann Square of 9 is what interests me. I have a few trader friends who use it often so I look out for their analysis.
I never mastered the Sq of 9 for FX, although I´ve seen it done for the S&P futures and T Bonds. I´m also looking to see if timing can be used with the Harmonic Patterns - I´ve already found some that line up, but it will take some work to see if I can find some consistancy.

The daily TLs that I mentioned are from points several months old and for shorter term trading I need to work with shorter TFs - been a bit too busy, but with winter coming I´ll have more time.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,735
  • Oct 12, 2007 10:43am Oct 12, 2007 10:43am
There are bearish harmonic patterns on UJ on 5 TF's at the same time (15m, 30m, 1hr, 4hr, and daily)
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #13,736
  • Oct 12, 2007 10:58am Oct 12, 2007 10:58am
Quoting Zoran
Hi Chris

The Trading Room section has not been very successful as there is just general chit-chat from what I have read. Nothing too helpful that you can't find in other non-1kt threads.
Confirmed!

And the more frequent the posts, the more often this thread will attract readers as it will be visible on the frontpage.

Revitalisation started!

Greetz!
Gnat
  • #13,737
  • Oct 12, 2007 11:00am Oct 12, 2007 11:00am
Quoting karmostaji
Zoran is the master of patterns
You seem to have something on your side there also! Thanks for the hint in UJ!
  • #13,738
  • Oct 12, 2007 11:08am Oct 12, 2007 11:08am
Quoting karmostaji
There are bearish harmonic patterns on UJ on 5 TF's at the same time (15m, 30m, 1hr, 4hr, and daily)
LOL Karmo....that´s the way I´m going too - analysis on UJ and trading with GJ - I have noticed some very accurate hits on pivot levels that UJ seems to "respect" a little more than GJ. Juggling with GU too just keeps you on your toes....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,739
  • Oct 12, 2007 11:13am Oct 12, 2007 11:13am
Quoting Islander
LOL Karmo....that´s the way I´m going too - analysis on UJ and trading with GJ - I have noticed some very accurate hits on pivot levels that UJ seems to "respect" a little more than GJ. Juggling with GU too just keeps you on your toes....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
It's just amazing combining your own strategy with these patterns. we also have a GU 30m bearish butterfly, but it could go upto 0383 before reversing.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #13,740
  • Oct 12, 2007 11:35am Oct 12, 2007 11:35am
Quoting Zoran
I expect one final wave up before the ship I've boarded starts its south bound journey. I got on a bit early and the cabin fees have not come cheaply but these are all good lessons for the next journey. I arrived early to ensure I didn't miss it (as I have in the past).

I am waiting for the potential right shoulder to complete, which looks possible by the bounce from the bullish bat. So I'm still waiting patiently - but I believe the ship will set sail shortly.

There have been plenty of opportunities to take some nice profit but I'm in for a longer journey. It could take a week or two to complete but I'm patient (as tought by the master).

very much agree with u
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