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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #2,301
  • Dec 19, 2006 2:05am Dec 19, 2006 2:05am
Quoting that4money
Hi Itme,

I saw a thread regarding your concept without number of pips in calculation.
So , if a trader trades w/o stop lost , how much money can he gain ?
If a person enters a trade without a predetermined stop then they cannot be a high performance trader. A high performance trader has a way of winning sufficient trades with a favorable reward : risk ratio. The reward : risk ratio is the ratio of what will be won if the target is hit compared to what will be lost if the stop is hit. If one doesn't have both a target and a stop, then one cannot have a reward : risk ratio for an individual trade. Many trading systems do not allow one to know the exit price at the time of entry. In those cases one can employ the average reward : risk ratio or maximum and minimum reward : risk ratio in calculating the risk factor, money management, etc. If one employs a stop and target and thus has a reward : risk ratio going into a trade, this allows one to employ a rationally based and sizeable risk factor that together with the win / loss ratio and reward / risk ratio produces a high rate of return for the trading program.

On the other hand, the trader without a stop loss stands a real chance of losing all of his or her capital if they take out a large position. Their risk is infinite. Without the ability to limit losses one cannot be a high performance trader, and if one tries to be a high performance trader with no stop loss (unless one is a perfect analyst all the time), one will be exterminated sooner or later.

In summary, a person who trades without a stop loss is either -

a) a perfect analyst, who is never wrong, in which case they are fine, or

b) not a perfect analyst, in which case they will either be -

i) a small winner, or

ii) a big loser
  • #2,302
  • Dec 19, 2006 4:31am Dec 19, 2006 4:31am
Tuesday December 19 at 7:30 ET

Trade Experiment #289 Sell CHF/JPY at 97.05

Stop is 97.36

Target is 95.90

Risk is 39 pips

Reward is 107 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 2.7 to 1

 For research purposes only.

The target is the bottom of Wave 3.
  • #2,303
  • Dec 19, 2006 8:57am Dec 19, 2006 8:57am
how low are your projections on this downward wave of the usd/jpy? and great thanks to your posts. i am trying to learn as much on the ew theory as possible. i have made some great profits!
  • #2,304
  • Dec 19, 2006 9:33am Dec 19, 2006 9:33am
I am new to Elliot Waves but it seems that the 5th wave may have developed yesterday. I also notice that the price is at a retracement on a move that goesw back to 1/2001 (if thats a reasonable look back). Can we expect a drop now? If not, why? If so, how much? Thanks for your great thread.
"Loss and failure are inevitable but misery is optional"
  • #2,305
  • Dec 19, 2006 12:35pm Dec 19, 2006 12:35pm
I dont understand either why USD/JPY didnt fall today, while all other pairs staged a reversal..
fxtrada.com
  • #2,306
  • Dec 19, 2006 1:22pm Dec 19, 2006 1:22pm
If USD/JPY had fallen today while GBP/USD and EUR/USD rose, then GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY wouldn't have risen, and thus they wouldn't have traced out their Elliott Wave patterns and reached their Q targets, as they did. The JPY carry trade industry is driving up these crosses perhaps. And perhaps the BOJ is backing the USD against the JPY to prevent the JPY from increasing in value and hurting Japanese export prices.
  • #2,307
  • Edited 4:22pm Dec 19, 2006 1:28pm | Edited 4:22pm
USD/CHF update for Tuesday December 19 at 16:15 ET

USD/CHF rose to 1.2250 and turned around there as predicted. It may turn around again and rise to a new high, so it is safest, if one sold at 1.2250 to exit at the Q target of 1.2120, book 125 pips of profit, and re-enter the short position at the top of the fifth and final wave. The safe assumption is that this last upwards impulse is an extended wave. Our estimated target for this upwards wave is 1.2400.

A strong rise in USD/CHF as predicted above is consistent with our analysis and predictions on CHF/JPY, EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF.
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________

Previous trade experiment and comments:

USD/CHF update for Friday December 15 at 5:15 ET
As things currently stand, after receiving a strong upwards push from this morning's data releases, USD/CHF seems to be positioned to turn around at about 1.2250.

Conservative traders who follow news releases will have exited their short trade near to the bottom of the pre-news release drop at 1.2117 and booked about 60 pips of profit from their short position. They will now be in a position to re-enter their short position at about 1.2250
_______________________________________________ _
__________________________________________________ _

Friday December 15 at 5:15 ET
Trade Experiment #285C Sell USD/CHF at 1.2190
Stop is 1.2226
Target #1 is 1.1885
Risk is 42 pips
Reward is 301 pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 7.2 to 1

For research purposes only

Note: this trade set-up has alot of deficiencies from the perspective of our trading system. It has a strong long term Q system reversal value going for it, but on the short and medium terms it doesn't have anything, and the short term micro-Elliott Wave count is totally absent. It's like a stick with no proper structure, which is ominous. Also, the target is not that large, and not precisely defined. We will study what happens and learn. If the price gets to 1.2242, then it will be an much better trade. Perhaps we should employ a stop that is higher than 1.2226, like 1.2256. However, if the risk is 72 pips, then the RRR will be 4.2, but the likelihood of success will be much higher. We will monitor this situation carefully if we can. In addition, our system indicates that there is a real chance that this trend will carry the price all the way up to 1.3300
  • #2,308
  • Edited 3:03pm Dec 19, 2006 2:11pm | Edited 3:03pm
GBP/CHF update for Tuesday December 19 at 16:45 ET

GBP/CHF rose strongly to a recent high of 2.3939 . Our current estimate for the top of this 1700 pips uptrend is at 2.4250 .

Current price is 2.3905.

In order for GBP/CHF to reach 2.4250, USD/CHF may rise to 1.2400 while USD/GBP falls 144 pips from its current price of 1.9700 to 1.9556 . This modest fall in GBP/USD could constitute the "b" wave of the current a-b-c upwards "B" Wave of the larger downwards Wave 4 correction of the even larger upwards impulse wave.
__________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________

Previous trade experiments:

GBP/CHF Update for Monday December 18, 2006 8:30 ET

The Trade Experiment #283 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3760 was stopped out because it assumed that Wave 3 was a simple wave, whereas it turned out to be complex wave, which seems to be the norm. A conservative trade set-up should assume a complex wave 3.

Our current estimate for the top of this 1700 pips uptrend is at 2.4250

Current price is 2.3800. Recent high is 2.3876.
_________________________________________________
_________________________________________________

Thursday December 14 at 4:30 ET

Re-enter Trade Experiment #283 Sell GBP/CHF at 2.3760

As predicted, GBP/CHF rose to 2.3760, which is a preferred entry point for our short trade.

Adjust the stop to 2.3804
Risk is now reduced to 56 pips instead of 75 pips
The targets stay the same as before.

Reward #1 is 298 minimum pips
Reward #2 is 448 minimum pips

Reward : risk ratio is now minimum 5.3/8.0 to 1

Confidence level : much better

For research purposes only.
  • #2,309
  • Dec 19, 2006 2:18pm Dec 19, 2006 2:18pm
Quoting itme
Monday December 18 at 7:00 ET

Our Trade Experiment #287 Buy GBP/USD at 1.9580 only made it up to 1.9664 (profit 80 pips) when an unusually bouyant USD TIC report threw GBP/USD down below our stop. Savvy investors would have monitored this news and protected themselves from loss.

<table class="tborder" style="margin-top: 12px;" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><thead><tr><td class="alt2"> 9:00am </td> <td class="alt2" align="center">USD</td> <td class="alt2">TIC Report</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">82.3B</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">65.0B</td> <td class="alt2" align="center">65.1B</td></tr></thead></table>
We try again:

Trade Experiment #287A Buy GBP/USD at 1.9490

Stop is 1.9447

Target is 1.9800

Risk is 47 pips

Reward is 306 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 6.5 to 1

 For research purposes only.

________________________________
_________________________________________

Previous trade experiment:

Thursday December 14 at 10:30 ET
Trade Experiment #287 Buy GBP/USD at 1.9580
Stop is 1.9548
Target is 1.9750
Risk is 37 pips
Reward is 185 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.0 to 1

 For research purposes only.
that was one of the most amazing calls I've ever seen.
  • #2,310
  • Dec 19, 2006 2:19pm Dec 19, 2006 2:19pm
I agree with what you say about USD/JPY. Using the same reasoning (that all of the yen crosses are rising because the yen is losing value) I have difficulty understanding the CHF/JPY short trade experiment. Logically, it would seem to me that this pair should also be rising, or at least not falling at this time.

Thank you for clarifying this for me.
  • #2,311
  • Dec 19, 2006 2:27pm Dec 19, 2006 2:27pm
Itme, was that a typo in your last post? or just a quirky charting package?Because it is GBP/USD, not USD/GBP, that is now 1.9690, and the GBP/USD would need to continue to go up, for GBP/CHF to rise.
  • #2,312
  • Dec 19, 2006 2:43pm Dec 19, 2006 2:43pm
Itme, back on 11th December you projected a low of 1.3080 for big Wave A of W4 for the euro - that was very close to the recent low. I know you've talked about revising the wave count since then, but it looks to fit pretty well, to my inexperienced eye. Are you still using that basic wave count? That means we are now in the start of big Wave B of 4 for the EUR/USD - and not the start of W5?
  • #2,313
  • Edited 3:49pm Dec 19, 2006 3:15pm | Edited 3:49pm
Quoting starfire
Itme, was that a typo in your last post? or just a quirky charting package?Because it is GBP/USD, not USD/GBP, that is now 1.9690, and the GBP/USD would need to continue to go up, for GBP/CHF to rise.
A cross currency rises or falls when the percentage change in the two majors is not the same.

For example, in the case of GBP/CHF, this cross will rise if both GBP/USD and USD/CHF rise in value. But this only happens infrequently. More often, GBP/USD rises while USD/CHF falls. If GBP/USD rises more on a percentage basis than USD/CHF falls, then GBP/CHF will rise. And vice versa. If USD/CHF falls more than GBP/USD rises, then GBP/CHF falls.

So GBP/CHF can rise if GBP/USD rises, while USD/CHF falls, but the percentage move of GBP/USD upwards is greater than the percentage change of USD/CHF downwards.

Another way for GBP/CHF to rise is if GBP/USD falls while USD/CHF rises. If USD/CHF rises more as a percentage than GBP/USD falls, then GBP/CHF will rise. This is what we expect will happen.

An example of this is my last GBP/USD trade experiment.

I entered a long position when there was a rather incomplete looking wave pattern and no Q targets. Why? Because there was strong evidence that GBP/JPY was about to start moving up strongly. (My GBP/JPY trade worked perfectly - it was a picture perfect trade, hitting my two targets in quick succession.) Because usually when GBP/JPY shoots up it is because GBP/USD is shooting up, I assumed that the same thing would happen in this case. But it didn't. The unusual occured. GBP/JPY went up as predicted because USD/JPY shot up while GBP/USD went down to the bottom of its wave, stopping me out on my long GBP/USD trade experiment.

So in this case GBP/JPY went up strongly for two different reasons - first because USD/JPY went up strongly while GBP/USD went down weakly, then second when GBP/USD reached the bottom of its wave and reversed into an upwards trend, the strong upwards move of GBP/USD overwhelmed the weak downwards movement of USD/JPY to carry GBP/JPY up the remainder of the way to our targets very quickly.
  • #2,314
  • Edited 4:00pm Dec 19, 2006 3:46pm | Edited 4:00pm
Update for EUR/CHF for Tuesday December 19 at 18:30 ET

The current upwards target for EUR/CHF is 1.6060 to 1.6125.

Trade Experiment #284 Sell EUR/CHF at 1.5968 failed because of a wrong wave count. A Q target was at 1.5990, so this qualified as a possible short trade entry value, and there was a drop of 30 pips in a corrective wave from an interim high of 1.5991 to 1.5960, but the ultimate high of the trend was far from reached.

The current price of EUR/CHF is 1.6020
________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________

Thursday December 14 at 3:45 ET

Since EUR/CHF rose to 1.5940 at the top of Wave A of Wave 4 on December 4, it descended 97 pips to 1.5853 in a Wave C on December 5th, then rose 122 pips in what could be a completed 5 wave set to the recent high of 1.5977, a possible reversal point. It may also go up to 1.5990 before it reverses. We interpret this as the top of the Wave C of an upwards Fourth Wave.

Trade Experiment #284 Sell EUR/CHF at 1.5968
Stop is 1.6005
Target #1 is 1.5835
Target #2 is 1.5775
Risk is 39 pips
Reward #1 is 128 minimum pips
Reward #2 is 189 minimum pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 3.3/4.8 to 1

For research purposes only
__________________________________________________ ___
__________________________________________________ ___

Previous trade signals and comments:

EUR/CHF Update for Monday December 3 at 8:00 ET

EUR/CHF rose to our target of 1.6010 (actually, 1 pip short of our target, in a 100 pip move) which we consider to be the top of Wave 5, and thus the endpoint of a large upwards trend and beginning of a large downwards trend. The target for our short trade to the end of wave 3 of the First Downwards Impulse Wave according to our system is 1.5810, and the price progressed 2 pips past this to 1.5808.

The price then rose 132 pips recently in wave A of wave 4 to 159.40, the predicted conservative top of wave A.

We now expect a wave B down and a wave C up to about 1.5960, then an impulse fifth wave down to about 1.5770; trading this fifth wave down will be our next low risk / high reward trading opportunity.
__________________________________________________ ________
__________________________________________________ ________

Previous comments:

EUR/CHF - correct wave count <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --> Friday November 17 at 20:00 ET

EUR/CHF performed exactly as predicted yesterday, forming a clear A-B-C downwards corrective wave down to 1.5960, meeting precisely our most likely reversal price, and then rose 49 pips to 1.6009 at 8:00 ET on November 17, 2 pips higher than our short term adjusted most likely reversal price.The price for EUR/CHF then fell 60 pips precipitously to 1.5948.

We placed a note on our chart "Sell at about 160.10", but in all the business of our morning we forgot to issue a trade signal on this pair.
________________________________________________
EUR/CHF update for Thursday November 16 at 4:00 ET

 EUR/CHF has risen to 1.5995 as predicted, and appears poised to rise once more to the top of the final fifth wave of the fifth wave at about 1.6010 or a bit higher.
_______________________________________

EUR/CHF update for Monday October 16 at 6:00 ET <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1">EUR/CHF rose to 1.5961 on October 13, coming within 9 pips of our predicted turnaround point. That would have been a good short opportunity. The EW pattern is somewhat strange right now, but our prediction for EUR/CHF of September 29 is seemingly still valid:

EUR/CHF prediction - finishing fifth wave <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> Friday September 29 at 4:30 ET

EUR/CHF is headed for 1.5970, 100 pips higher than its current price, which will complete a long uptrend that began on May 17. This would be an opportunity to short it and to hold a position trade from the very endpoint of a weekly trend.
  • #2,315
  • Edited 9:06pm Dec 19, 2006 4:00pm | Edited 9:06pm
Quoting moonchild
I agree with what you say about USD/JPY. Using the same reasoning (that all of the yen crosses are rising because the yen is losing value) I have difficulty understanding the CHF/JPY short trade experiment. Logically, it would seem to me that this pair should also be rising, or at least not falling at this time.

Thank you for clarifying this for me.
Tuesday December 19 at 19:00 ET

Dear Moonchild,

A study of various pairs suggests that USD/CHF is about to rise strongly to 1.2400 from its current price of 1.2130. This represents a 2.2% rise, which is substantial.

If during the same time period USD/JPY rises less as a percentage, to 118.91, which is a .78% rise, then CHF/JPY will fall to 118.91 / 1.2400 = 95.90, which is the target for our CHF/JPY short trade.

We checked USD/JPY, and there is a high probability Q system reversal value at about 118.80 - 118.90. The anticipated ultimate high of the current USD/JPY uptrend is 119.50 to 119.90.
  • #2,316
  • Edited 8:35pm Dec 19, 2006 4:28pm | Edited 8:35pm
Tuesday December 19 at 19:00 ET

Trade Experiment #290 Buy USD/CHF at 1.2123

Stop is 1.2089

Target is 1.2400

Risk is 37 pips

Reward is 273 pips

Reward : risk ratio is minimum 7.4 to 1

For research purposes only.

This is trading Wave 5 upwards.

p.s. - According to my micro-Elliott Wave analysis and Q analysis, 1.2110 is the precise bottom of this trend. This is a high probabilitiy reversal value.
_______________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________

Previous trade experiment and comments:

USD/CHF update for Tuesday December 19 at 16:15 ET

USD/CHF rose to 1.2250 and turned around there as predicted. It may turn around again and rise to a new high, so it is safest, if one sold at 1.2250 to exit at the Q target of 1.2120, book 125 pips of profit, and re-enter the short position at the top of the fifth and final wave. The safe assumption is that this last upwards impulse is an extended wave. Our estimated target for this upwards wave is 1.2400.

A strong rise in USD/CHF as predicted above is consistent with our analysis and predictions on CHF/JPY, EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF.
__________________________________________________ ____
__________________________________________________ ____
USD/CHF update for Friday December 15 at 5:15 ET
As things currently stand, after receiving a strong upwards push from this morning's data releases, USD/CHF seems to be positioned to turn around at about 1.2250.

Conservative traders who follow news releases will have exited their short trade near to the bottom of the pre-news release drop at 1.2117 and booked about 60 pips of profit from their short position. They will now be in a position to re-enter their short position at about 1.2250
_______________________________________________ _
__________________________________________________ _

Friday December 15 at 5:15 ET
Trade Experiment #285C Sell USD/CHF at 1.2190
Stop is 1.2226
Target #1 is 1.1885
Risk is 42 pips
Reward is 301 pips
Reward : risk ratio is minimum 7.2 to 1

For research purposes only

Note: this trade set-up has alot of deficiencies from the perspective of our trading system. It has a strong long term Q system reversal value going for it, but on the short and medium terms it doesn't have anything, and the short term micro-Elliott Wave count is totally absent. It's like a stick with no proper structure, which is ominous. Also, the target is not that large, and not precisely defined. We will study what happens and learn. If the price gets to 1.2242, then it will be an much better trade. Perhaps we should employ a stop that is higher than 1.2226, like 1.2256. However, if the risk is 72 pips, then the RRR will be 4.2, but the likelihood of success will be much higher. We will monitor this situation carefully if we can. In addition, our system indicates that there is a real chance that this trend will carry the price all the way up to 1.3300
  • #2,317
  • Edited Dec 20, 2006 12:41am Dec 19, 2006 4:46pm | Edited Dec 20, 2006 12:41am
Tuesday December 19 at 19:45 ET

Trade Experiment #291 Sell GBP/JPY at 232.90

 Stop is 233.21

Target is 231.00

Risk is 40 pips

Reward is 181 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 4.5 to 1

We are trading the corrective fourth wave down.

p.s. - 1st of all, this isn't a great trade set-up. The entry price is not optimal. If we entered at 233.60, then it would be an optimal set-up.The RRR is less than 5.0, and the stop is small. The current high price is 233.18, only 3 pips from our stop. We are fighting a mighty upwards trend.

The price might rise for one more mini-wave before reversing. The stop on this trade should be adjusted to 233.76 to provide a better chance of this trade winning. Or exit at about 233.00 (or a bit lower) and re-enter if it rises one more time to above 233.30. Buying at the bottom of this upcoming downwards fourth corrective wave would be a much better trade in terms of reward : risk ratio and probability of success. ___________________________________________________
___________________________________________________

Previous trade experiment:

Adjust target of Trade Experiment #271B Buy GBP/JPY
Tuesday December 19 at 4:30 ET

A target check of Trade Experiment #271B Buy GBP/JPY at 229.50 indicates that the Target #1 should have been 231.87, not 232.00, which was recently hit. Recent high is 231.94.

p.s. - Target #2 of 232.50 was just met at December 19 16:00 ET. One could have exited at Target #1 of 231.87, re-entered at the bottom of wave 4 at 231.33, and carried on with the trade up to the second conservative target of 232.50, which is the idea if the Elliott Wave count fits. The ultimate high for this wave could be 232.73 .

There are 4 ways to trade these multi-target trades. The best way depends on the trader's skill level and the particular situation:

1) enter two groups of lots. Exit one lot group at the first target, and the second group of lots at the second target.

2) exit the trade at the first target, which is usually the top of the third wave. Re-enter at the bottom of the fourth wave (assuming an upwards trend) and exit at the top of the fifth wave, or target #2. This assumes enough skill in Elliott Wave analysis to recognise the bottom of the fourth wave.

3) Exit at the first target. Period.

4) Assess the situation when the first target is met. If there is no clear evidence of a complete EW pattern, then hold until the second target is hit.

________________

In the case of this trade, if the preferred method - the second method above, was employed with the correct initial target, then the total RRR on this trade would be 4.0 X 1.8 = 7.2. This assumes using the same number of lots on the re-entry as the initial entry, and employing the same stop.
__________________________________________________ ______
__________________________________________________ ______

Previous trade signal:

Re-entry opportunity Trade Experiment #271B Buy GBP/JPY at 229.50

Impending re-entry opportunity on this trade.
__________________________________________________ ______
__________________________________________________ ______

Previous trade experiment:

Monday December 18 at 6:00 ET
Trade Experiment #271B Buy GBP/JPY at 229.40
Stop is 228.89
Target #1 is 232.00
Target #2 is 232.50
Risk is 60 pips
Reward is 251 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 4.2 / 5.0 to 1
We are trading the fifth wave of the Fifth Wave to the end of the upwards trend.
  • #2,318
  • Edited 8:28pm Dec 19, 2006 5:08pm | Edited 8:28pm
Tuesday December 19 at 19:45 ET

Trade Experiment #292 Sell GBP/USD at 1.9726

 Stop is 1.9771

Target is 1.9400

Risk is 49 pips

Reward is 322 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 6.6 to 1

We are trading the "C" wave down.

p.s. - According to my micro-Elliott Wave analysis and Q analysis, 1.9737 is the precise top of this trend. The current price is 1.9735.
 ____________________________________________________
____________________________________________________

Previous trade experiment:

Our Trade Experiment #287A going long on GBP/USD had very little going for it. The wave count was sketchy, and no Q high probability reversal targets had been met. All we had was a short term trend line and a slightly viable 5 wave pattern, without a complex wave 3. And what looked like a clear sign that GBP/JPY was going up, which is almost always correlated with an uptrend in GBP/USD (but not in this case). Going long at 1.9380 will be a much better trade set-up. This experiment reinforces the importance of having as many positive factors in one's favor before risking one's capital in this challenging market.

On the other hand, Trade Experiment #271B Buy GBP/JPY at 229.40 has been up 80 pips so far, which is a good start. And by the way, the price of 231.78 which GBP/JPY touched before it fell 250 pips in 2 hours, is a very high probability reversal value according to our trend reversal model.

Prediction: we expect GBP/USD to descend to 1.9375 and then reverse the downtrend and head up to 1.9745 in the "c" wave of the upwards "B" Wave, to be followed by a descent to 1.9245 to 1.9300. There is also a chance that GBP/USD will descend to 1.9315 before rising again. Also, it is possible that the upwards "B" wave is already complete, and that we are engaged in the more forceful downwards "C" wave which could descend to 1.9245. So we should be careful about going long.

Previous trade experiment:

We try again:
Trade Experiment #287A Buy GBP/USD at 1.9490
Stop is 1.9447
Target is 1.9800
Risk is 47 pips
Reward is 306 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 6.5 to 1

 For research purposes only.
  • #2,319
  • Dec 19, 2006 5:18pm Dec 19, 2006 5:18pm
Dear Itme .. this is confusing here .. earlier you said that the wave up that we just traded .. was the fith wave to end the upward trend ..
How is it that this new trade signal is only to sell down into a fourth wave. Shouldn't this be a possible Wave 1 with the most recent high having a high probability of being the ultimate high?

Quoting itme
Tuesday December 19 at 19:45 ET

Trade Experiment #291 Sell GBP/JPY at 232.90

 We are trading the corrective fourth wave down.
___________________________________________________

and
__________________________________________________ ______
Previous trade experiment:

Monday December 18 at 6:00 ET
Trade Experiment #271B Buy GBP/JPY at 229.40

We are trading the fifth wave of the Fifth Wave to the end of the upwards trend.
  • #2,320
  • Dec 19, 2006 5:50pm Dec 19, 2006 5:50pm
Quoting SmoothOperator
Dear Itme .. this is confusing here .. earlier you said that the wave up that we just traded .. was the fith wave to end the upward trend ..
How is it that this new trade signal is only to sell down into a fourth wave. Shouldn't this be a possible Wave 1 with the most recent high having a high probability of being the ultimate high?
Thanks for asking, SmoothOperator,

I said, " We are trading the fifth wave of the Fifth Wave to the end of the upwards trend." but what I should have said was that we were trading the fifth wave of the Fifth Wave of the Third Wave of the THIRD EXTENDED WAVE up, with an ultimate target of 246.00 to 250.00 for the FIFTH WAVE up.
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