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Harmonic Wave Journal

  • #1,181
  • Oct 11, 2007 1:17am Oct 11, 2007 1:17am
Opportunity #G52/07 (re-entry)
GBP/USD Long
4 parts
Entry: 2.0260
Stop (initial): 2.0210

Addition 1: 2.0367

End of subwave C of 4 or 2 (?).

Update 1: S/L tightened to 2.0269 (guarantees -5).
Update 2: Stopped out for -15, re-entry at 2.0260, initial stop at 2.0210.
Update 3: Took 1st profit at 2.0312 (+52). S/L tightened to 2.0256 (guarantees -4). Set TP2 at 2.0376 for +116.
Update 4: Took 2nd profit at 2.0365 (+105). S/L tightened to 2.0270 (guarantees +10).
Update 5: Took 3rd profit at 2.0450 (+190). S/L tightened to 2.0317 (guarantees +57).
Update 6: Added 1 part at 2.0367, S/L at 2.0317

Targetting 2.0500 by end of week, hope all is going well.
Tra-X
  • #1,182
  • Oct 11, 2007 1:32am Oct 11, 2007 1:32am
Quoting SeekingLight
Hehehehe...well yea, that's how you could count, just never saw such an ugly 2 wave...then again I am clueless as to what's allowed in 2....I just wish something 3ish would appear, straight forward sky blasting and such, ya know?
This is just tedious...and now that the stock markets are diving like nuts again I am getting worried GBPJPY might get dragged into hell and GBPUSD along with it....ick.

Already lost far too much ground from the high - not normal.
It's alright, we just need to stick to the plan/count we decided and trade according to it right, until market proves it wrong (and we lose lol).
Asian markets today are bullish again, prolly US will follow later?
Tra-X
  • #1,183
  • Edited 3:58am Oct 11, 2007 2:29am | Edited 3:58am
Opportunity #G52/07 (re-entry)
GBP/USD Long
4 parts
Entry: 2.0260
Stop (initial): 2.0210

Addition 1: 2.0367

End of subwave C of 4 or 2 (?).

Update 1: S/L tightened to 2.0269 (guarantees -5).
Update 2: Stopped out for -15, re-entry at 2.0260, initial stop at 2.0210.
Update 3: Took 1st profit at 2.0312 (+52). S/L tightened to 2.0256 (guarantees -4). Set TP2 at 2.0376 for +116.
Update 4: Took 2nd profit at 2.0365 (+105). S/L tightened to 2.0270 (guarantees +10).
Update 5: Took 3rd profit at 2.0450 (+190). S/L tightened to 2.0317 (guarantees +57).
Update 6: Added 1 part at 2.0367, S/L at 2.0317
Update 7: S/L tightened to 2.0345 for Addition 1 (guarantees -22).
Update 8: S/L tightened to 2.0360 for Addition 1 (guarantees -7) and 2.0345 for original trade (guarantees +85).

Targetting 2.0500 by end of week, hope all is going well.
Tra-X
  • #1,184
  • Edited 8:14am Oct 11, 2007 7:40am | Edited 8:14am
Opportunity #G52/07 (re-entry/2nd attempt)
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 2.0340
Stop (initial): 2.0290

Addition 1: 2.0367 (stopped)

End of subwave C of 4 or 2 (?).

Update 1: S/L tightened to 2.0269 (guarantees -5).
Update 2: Stopped out for -15, re-entry at 2.0260, initial stop at 2.0210.
Update 3: Took 1st profit at 2.0312 (+52). S/L tightened to 2.0256 (guarantees -4). Set TP2 at 2.0376 for +116.
Update 4: Took 2nd profit at 2.0365 (+105). S/L tightened to 2.0270 (guarantees +10).
Update 5: Took 3rd profit at 2.0450 (+190). S/L tightened to 2.0317 (guarantees +57).
Update 6: Added 1 part at 2.0367, S/L at 2.0317
Update 7: S/L tightened to 2.0345 for Addition 1 (guarantees -22).
Update 8: S/L tightened to 2.0360 for Addition 1 (guarantees -7) and 2.0345 for original trade (guarantees +85).
Update 9: Stopped out for -7 and +85. Re-entry again at 2.0340, initial stop at 2.0290. S/L tightened to 2.0333 (guarantees -7).

Targetting 2.0500 by end of week, hope all is going well.
Tra-X
  • #1,185
  • Oct 11, 2007 7:52am Oct 11, 2007 7:52am
Cable must really hate us

Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,186
  • Oct 11, 2007 8:48am Oct 11, 2007 8:48am
Opportunity #G52/07 (re-entry/last attempt)
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 2.0327
Stop (initial): 2.0290

Addition 1: 2.0367 (stopped)

End of subwave C of 4 or 2 (?).

Update 1: S/L tightened to 2.0269 (guarantees -5).
Update 2: Stopped out for -15, re-entry at 2.0260, initial stop at 2.0210.
Update 3: Took 1st profit at 2.0312 (+52). S/L tightened to 2.0256 (guarantees -4). Set TP2 at 2.0376 for +116.
Update 4: Took 2nd profit at 2.0365 (+105). S/L tightened to 2.0270 (guarantees +10).
Update 5: Took 3rd profit at 2.0450 (+190). S/L tightened to 2.0317 (guarantees +57).
Update 6: Added 1 part at 2.0367, S/L at 2.0317
Update 7: S/L tightened to 2.0345 for Addition 1 (guarantees -22).
Update 8: S/L tightened to 2.0360 for Addition 1 (guarantees -7) and 2.0345 for original trade (guarantees +85).
Update 9: Stopped out for -7 and +85. Re-entry again at 2.0340, initial stop at 2.0290. S/L tightened to 2.0333 (guarantees -7).
Update 10: Stopped out again for -21. Final re-entry at 2.0327, initial stop at 2.0290. Falling further would bring Cable back to ~2.0200 and we could forget about 2.0500.

Targetting 2.0500 by end of week, hope all is going well.
Tra-X
  • #1,187
  • Oct 11, 2007 9:15am Oct 11, 2007 9:15am
Opportunity #G52/07 (re-entry/last attempt)
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 2.0327
Stop (initial): 2.0290

Addition 1: 2.0367 (stopped)

End of subwave C of 4 or 2 (?).

Update 1: S/L tightened to 2.0269 (guarantees -5).
Update 2: Stopped out for -15, re-entry at 2.0260, initial stop at 2.0210.
Update 3: Took 1st profit at 2.0312 (+52). S/L tightened to 2.0256 (guarantees -4). Set TP2 at 2.0376 for +116.
Update 4: Took 2nd profit at 2.0365 (+105). S/L tightened to 2.0270 (guarantees +10).
Update 5: Took 3rd profit at 2.0450 (+190). S/L tightened to 2.0317 (guarantees +57).
Update 6: Added 1 part at 2.0367, S/L at 2.0317
Update 7: S/L tightened to 2.0345 for Addition 1 (guarantees -22).
Update 8: S/L tightened to 2.0360 for Addition 1 (guarantees -7) and 2.0345 for original trade (guarantees +85).
Update 9: Stopped out for -7 and +85. Re-entry again at 2.0340, initial stop at 2.0290. S/L tightened to 2.0333 (guarantees -7).
Update 10: Stopped out again for -21. Final re-entry at 2.0327, initial stop at 2.0290. Falling further would bring Cable back to ~2.0200 and we could forget about 2.0500.
Update 11: Took 1st profit at 2.0373 (+46). S/L tightened to 2.0320 (guarantees -7).

Targetting 2.0500 by end of week, hope all is going well.
Tra-X
  • #1,188
  • Oct 11, 2007 9:24am Oct 11, 2007 9:24am
Well, at least we now have a "line in the sand"

This better be the end of whatever_impulse_is_coming.2 now and the start of 3

Ugly ugly mess, this..
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,189
  • Oct 11, 2007 2:42pm Oct 11, 2007 2:42pm
Opportunity #G52/07 (re-entry/last attempt)
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 2.0327
Stop (initial): 2.0290

Addition 1: 2.0367 (stopped)

End of subwave C of 4 or 2 (?).

Update 1: S/L tightened to 2.0269 (guarantees -5).
Update 2: Stopped out for -15, re-entry at 2.0260, initial stop at 2.0210.
Update 3: Took 1st profit at 2.0312 (+52). S/L tightened to 2.0256 (guarantees -4). Set TP2 at 2.0376 for +116.
Update 4: Took 2nd profit at 2.0365 (+105). S/L tightened to 2.0270 (guarantees +10).
Update 5: Took 3rd profit at 2.0450 (+190). S/L tightened to 2.0317 (guarantees +57).
Update 6: Added 1 part at 2.0367, S/L at 2.0317
Update 7: S/L tightened to 2.0345 for Addition 1 (guarantees -22).
Update 8: S/L tightened to 2.0360 for Addition 1 (guarantees -7) and 2.0345 for original trade (guarantees +85).
Update 9: Stopped out for -7 and +85. Re-entry again at 2.0340, initial stop at 2.0290. S/L tightened to 2.0333 (guarantees -7).
Update 10: Stopped out again for -21. Final re-entry at 2.0327, initial stop at 2.0290. Falling further would bring Cable back to ~2.0200 and we could forget about 2.0500.
Update 11: Took 1st profit at 2.0373 (+46). S/L tightened to 2.0320 (guarantees -7).
Update 12: Stopped out again for -14. Wave count is too messy, can't even figure it out anymore. If it still goes to 2.05 tomorrow, I'll most likely be a watcher only. Unexpected carry unwind as well tonight, with the stocks dropping, apparently not following the Asians. Off.

Targetting 2.0500 by end of week, hope all is going well.

Total gain: +421
Tra-X
  • #1,190
  • Oct 11, 2007 7:07pm Oct 11, 2007 7:07pm
Hi Tra-X,

I'm attempting to learn as much as I can from you. Your awesome trading record speaks for itself. I'm not there yet, but I hope to be by studying your past trades in the journal, and following along in the present. I must admit that without charts, sometimes I'm completely lost as to what your count is. If you can post an occasional chart -- just a few more than you already do -- it will really help people like me a lot.

I am using trendlines and fibonacci lines, and now thanks to you, I'm studying Elliott Waves. I'd very much like your opinion on this Weekly GU chart that I marked up. By this count, it would suggest we already hit a peak for GU in July. However, with the drop in US interest rates vs. GBP, it could of course lend new life to the uptrend.

However, the current pattern resembles a "5th Wave Failure" pattern described at: http://www.acrotec.com/elliottwave/ew4.jpg

In this kind of pattern, the last red count of 5 in my chart has a "4" which goes below the end of "1", which is not normally allowed.

Anyway, for what it's worth, here's my EW count. As I am learning EW (!), I would very much welcome feedback on where I may have erred in my counts, on any detail whatsoever. (I didn't mark all the a-b-c corrections, nor some of the smallest 1-2-3-4-5 waves, but I tried to be aware of them as I placed the higher timeframe counts).

Pips4life

P.S. I could really use advice on where to learn more about EW. I ordered Prechter's book "Elliott Wave Principals", and I found these useful web sites so far:

http://www.acrotec.com/ewt.htm
http://trading-stocks.netfirms.com/elliot-wave.htm

http://www.trending123.com/seminar2/...ck-Charts.html

http://www.trending123.com/seminar2/...ck-Charts.html
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU EW 2007-10-11.jpg Size: 179 KB
  • #1,191
  • Oct 11, 2007 7:27pm Oct 11, 2007 7:27pm
Quoting pips4life
However, the current pattern resembles a "5th Wave Failure" pattern described at: http://www.acrotec.com/elliottwave/ew4.jpg
Oops. Rather than a "5th Wave Failure" pattern, I meant to say it was the other pattern shown in the same URL above:
(b) Diagonal Triangle at Wave 5

Sometimes, the momentum at Wave 5 is so weak that the 2nd and 4th sub-waves overlap with each other and evolved into diagonal triangle.
  • #1,192
  • Oct 11, 2007 9:35pm Oct 11, 2007 9:35pm
Quoting Traex
Opportunity #G52/07 (re-entry/last attempt)
Update 12: Stopped out again for -14. Wave count is too messy, can't even figure it out anymore. If it still goes to 2.05 tomorrow, I'll most likely be a watcher only. Unexpected carry unwind as well tonight, with the stocks dropping, apparently not following the Asians. Off.

Targetting 2.0500 by end of week, hope all is going well.

Total gain: +421
Bro, ur a monster pip machine (+421), considering the range GBPUSD is in since 29Sep07 till now. Have a good rest.
Still waters run deep
  • #1,193
  • Oct 13, 2007 2:06am Oct 13, 2007 2:06am
Quoting Vantage
Hi Traex
Was just wondering if you have any counts that see gbpusd coming down to any of these areas 2.0230, 2.0150, 1.9950? They are the approx daily 50, 100 and 200 emas and usually do a good job of containing price.
Regards.
Yet again another good week, well done.

I'll be interested to see how your counts go for cable. In the end price hit the 50 ema (daily chart) and bounced nicely which hopefully means a push up next week, we'll see.

Regards.
  • #1,194
  • Oct 14, 2007 9:22am Oct 14, 2007 9:22am
Thanks peeps.
Pips4life, I realized that wave counts in large tf don't matter that much anymore since I trade smaller tf. Following the longterm trend is indeed important, as Jacko said in his thread. But imho personally the longer term count in cable is not clear now, there are double-layered 5th wave extensions up here I bet. Thanks for your wave chart.

Weekly review:

Total trades closed = 3, winners = 3, no loser
Net gain this week = +815

No trade open thru this weekend.
Tra-X
  • #1,195
  • Oct 14, 2007 9:27am Oct 14, 2007 9:27am
Cable boosted up but then dived and recovered halfway up at close. This up and down I labeled as subwave (orange) B and C of wave (red) 2. Now, prolly wave (red) 3 up of even bigger wave 3 has just started, this wave might target at least above 2.08. Next upside targets after 2.05 are this year's top 2.0650 area, ~2.0740 area, then above 2.08. A break of 2.0493 is needed for new impulse up confirmation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 30m.gif Size: 23 KB
Tra-X
  • #1,196
  • Oct 14, 2007 9:33am Oct 14, 2007 9:33am
EUR/USD has prolly finished its subwave (orange) 4 down and currently in final impulse subwave 5 up. If it fails and goes down, it'll be labeled as mini wave (magenta) B of 4 instead. Like at the beginning of this month, it still has power to rally till ~1.48 this month. Will the market take the space?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu h1.gif Size: 21 KB
Tra-X
  • #1,197
  • Oct 14, 2007 9:38am Oct 14, 2007 9:38am
Alright, GBP/JPY so far resumed its uptrend, powered mostly by USD/JPY (this pair still hasn't reached 118.00 yet, dang). Next important target at 241.46 (early year's top, left shoulder in weekly chart) is still to be hit. Still looks like a formation of H&S in weekly chart. C'mon carry traders, break it!

Good luck to everyone next week and Happy Aidil Fitri celebration to all muslims.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 1h part 1.gif Size: 21 KB
Tra-X
  • #1,198
  • Oct 15, 2007 4:56am Oct 15, 2007 4:56am
Quoting Traex
EUR/USD has prolly finished its subwave (orange) 4 down and currently in final impulse subwave 5 up. If it fails and goes down, it'll be labeled as mini wave (magenta) B of 4 instead. Like at the beginning of this month, it still has power to rally till ~1.48 this month. Will the market take the space?




Same thoughts here. Here's the big picture I have(wave 3 lined up soooo perfectly...should have been more watchful..):
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_151007_count.gif Size: 10 KB
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,199
  • Oct 15, 2007 5:09am Oct 15, 2007 5:09am
Quoting Traex
Cable boosted up but then dived and recovered halfway up at close. This up and down I labeled as subwave (orange) B and C of wave (red) 2. Now, prolly wave (red) 3 up of even bigger wave 3 has just started, this wave might target at least above 2.08. Next upside targets after 2.05 are this year's top 2.0650 area, ~2.0740 area, then above 2.08. A break of 2.0493 is needed for new impulse up confirmation.


I'm a bit more clueless here as it's all so fuzzy and noisy..however I can line up that 2.08 area, too, with some extensions
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_151007_count.gif Size: 13 KB
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,200
  • Oct 15, 2007 6:21pm Oct 15, 2007 6:21pm
There is nothing much other than this consolidation phase in Cable, very confusing!
Forex is not easy!
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