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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #13,661
  • Oct 10, 2007 1:24pm Oct 10, 2007 1:24pm
Somebody needs to pump some life into this thread, even though Islander and Wolf have been doing a great job.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #13,662
  • Oct 10, 2007 2:02pm Oct 10, 2007 2:02pm
How 'bout you, Karmo?
  • #13,663
  • Oct 10, 2007 2:56pm Oct 10, 2007 2:56pm
Quoting karmostaji
Somebody needs to pump some life into this thread, even though Islander and Wolf have been doing a great job.
LOL Karmo, some of us do try, but please remember the important part of the thread´s title......analysis......so let´s try and keep it that way, with some reasoning as to why a trade is taken. As more serious traders get the idea and post here, hopefully we´ll be able to help each other develop our own individual set ups. Then, maybe, we´ll not have to spend so much time sorting out the rubbish posts that clog up other threads.

Sufficient for today, back for FO......´night all.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,664
  • Oct 10, 2007 3:09pm Oct 10, 2007 3:09pm
somebody asked for some life, so just posting my thoughts here

I'm looking for a short on gbpyen at 241.49.

Possible targets (1) 235.28
(2) 231.46
(3) 241.03

If we reach 241.03 then on this weekly chart we'll have a head and shoulder.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly GBPYEN.jpg Size: 100 KB
  • #13,665
  • Oct 10, 2007 3:21pm Oct 10, 2007 3:21pm
Quoting spiritbreezer
somebody asked for some life, so just posting my thoughts here

I'm looking for a short on gbpyen at 241.49.

Possible targets (1) 235.28
(2) 231.46
(3) 241.03

If we reach 241.03 then on this weekly chart we'll have a head and shoulder.
yes.. and if it completes the 3rd target... would be a nice big header and shoulders pattern that can move it even lower
  • #13,666
  • Oct 10, 2007 5:23pm Oct 10, 2007 5:23pm
A few possible options

1) H&S (as previously discussed)
2) Double Top
3) Test upper trendline

Since a megaphone is present, options 1 or 2 seems more likely...
Attached Image
  • #13,667
  • Oct 10, 2007 5:27pm Oct 10, 2007 5:27pm
Originally I saw a W formation on the monthly. But....

Zoran, might this be a butterfly?
Attached Image
  • #13,668
  • Edited 6:14pm Oct 10, 2007 6:02pm | Edited 6:14pm
Update on my previous posts and how the trades turned out (see attached charts) been busy with other stuff as well trading and had no time to post. (don't normally post after the fact but my reasoning may be of interest to some)

Found myself trading against the hourly trend going long even though I had mentioned in a previous post a possible retrace back to 237.5 level, just had to much of a long bias in my head! and the trend yesterday morning was down after breaking the hourly t/l.

Luckely I got my act together and shorted on the retest of a daily t/l and closed when it hit another daily trend line also 237.

Here my gut instinct and analysis was telling me it was great place to long and the bulls were really in charge, but everybody seemed to be calling shorts like they always do lol. (I mean no disrespect, some fantastic analysis, valid reasons to short, much of it way above my head! will promise to study more)

After price had consolidated just below the previous daily trend line it seemed like a good low risk entry. Just waited to get a low price in the consolidation and set a tight stop. The declining 1h t/l had been tested for about the 6th time, so seemed ready to be broken, a bull flag? had formed and large volume at the recent low. Bulls just had to be in charge.

Very pleased when I got up this morning closed and shorted at 240 I mentioned previously this area seemed to me to be strong resistance, this being the principle reason for shorting also came up against the 1h t/l. Still short with stops in profit so lets see if the shorts win. If not I will reevaluate in the morning.

I see price testing the daily 61.8 right now looks promising though!

Hope this made sense, tired now time for bed.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 15m 101007.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gj daily 101007.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #13,669
  • Oct 10, 2007 6:12pm Oct 10, 2007 6:12pm
Great work matey - keep it going!

Kind regards
Steve
  • #13,670
  • Oct 10, 2007 6:21pm Oct 10, 2007 6:21pm
Quoting steviet
Great work matey - keep it going!

Kind regards
Steve
Hey thanks Steve.. gotta try and keep up with you .

Another sad person still trawling the threads after midnight.

Anyway where's your new avatar.

Goodnight.

Regards,

Chris.
  • #13,671
  • Oct 10, 2007 6:23pm Oct 10, 2007 6:23pm
Quoting Wolf.
Hey thanks Steve.. gotta try and keep up with you .

Another sad person still trawling the threads after midnight.

Anyway where's your new avatar.

Goodnight.

Regards,

Chris.
LOL - new avatar??
  • #13,672
  • Oct 10, 2007 8:53pm Oct 10, 2007 8:53pm
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- The Bank of Japan was expected Thursday to keep its key interest rate steady at 0.5% while it takes more time to assess global credit problems and small businesses' lagging confidence in the world's second-largest economy.


STORY
Is your SL my TP?
  • #13,673
  • Oct 11, 2007 12:43am Oct 11, 2007 12:43am
Quoting rs5
Originally I saw a W formation on the monthly. But....

Zoran, might this be a butterfly?
As far as I can see, the ratios of the points along your top line are not correct for a bearish butterfly. The mid point ( C ) should not exceed 0.886 of the first leg down - here it does. Also, the final top line point ( D ) should be between 1.27 and 1.618 of the first leg down - i.e. higher than the first point ( A ) - here it is about equal - so far!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,674
  • Oct 11, 2007 2:05am Oct 11, 2007 2:05am
Good Morning....so far I´m seeing conflict between UJ and GU - UJ is trading above its Asian Pivot and holding at M3, Cable is trading under its DP and holding at S1, so whilst these two stay within these bounderies we can expect GJ to range between 238.50 and 239.65 - so back to my 1 min chart for scalping!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,675
  • Oct 11, 2007 2:30am Oct 11, 2007 2:30am
Quoting rs5
Originally I saw a W formation on the monthly. But....

Zoran, might this be a butterfly?
Sorry, this is off topic, but couldn´t resist this chart of EJ - these are the correct ratios and lettering. NB "D" could also go to the 1.618 expansion - the 166.80 area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej oct 11 5m 0330.gif Size: 17 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,676
  • Oct 11, 2007 3:28am Oct 11, 2007 3:28am
Good morning,

Stopped out of my short last night +40 have just longed at 239 stop below L3.

Will post a chart shortly.
  • #13,677
  • Oct 11, 2007 3:53am Oct 11, 2007 3:53am
Chart.... pivot resistance right now!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj 30m 111007.gif Size: 43 KB
  • #13,678
  • Oct 11, 2007 4:57am Oct 11, 2007 4:57am
Quoting Wolf.
Chart.... pivot resistance right now!
Hi Wolf...its a long time since I´ve seen a chart with those levels and breakouts etc - please remind me about them - thanks.

I´m just scalping at present as I cant see an overall direction - now I´m short from 239.35 with a stop at .65
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #13,679
  • Oct 11, 2007 5:21am Oct 11, 2007 5:21am
Quoting Islander
Hi Wolf...its a long time since I´ve seen a chart with those levels and breakouts etc - please remind me about them - thanks.

I´m just scalping at present as I cant see an overall direction - now I´m short from 239.35 with a stop at .65
The red and green areas are Camzones, covering the Camarila levels (Red L3, L4, L5) (Green H3, H4, H5)

Don't normally post a chart showing those although they are on my normal trading chart.

The Camzones give a good visual interpretation of were the price is in relation to the days open, the range throughout the day and the previous days action and trend. The camarilla levels just like Mid Pivots are also often well respected.

You probably know about Camarilla levels but if your interested I have document somewhere.

Oh and I am still long Closed 1/2 at +50 and stop at +1, but I think you are right Ranging is probably the order of the day.
  • #13,680
  • Oct 11, 2007 5:28am Oct 11, 2007 5:28am
Quoting Wolf.
The red and green areas are Camzones, covering the Camarila levels (Red L3, L4, L5) (Green H3, H4, H5)

Don't normally post a chart showing those although they are on my normal trading chart.

The Camzones give a good visual interpretation of were the price is in relation to the days open, the range throughout the day and the previous days action and trend. The camarilla levels just like Mid Pivots are also often well respected.

You probably know about Camarilla levels but if your interested I have document somewhere.

Oh and I am still long Closed 1/2 at +50 and stop at +1, but I think you are right Ranging is probably the order of the day.
Thanks , now I remember - Strato uses them a lot - its a couple of years since I read his thread and visited his room.
Trading Levels with WRBs
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