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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #38,941
  • Oct 10, 2007 6:56pm Oct 10, 2007 6:56pm
Quoting Hakuna Matata
trading against 50ema/1hr
+ chk the candle pattern on 15min
and whats the trend??-- still UP
i got a good entry on this one thats why ill ride it to the t/p iuf possible
otheriwse ill consider exiting if we get a close below 50ema/1hr or 5min reverssal
This sucker is liable to end up closing right on the 1H 50EMA. I hate when that happens. It makes ya squirm a little bit longer if you're already in a trade either long or short.

M2B
  • #38,942
  • Oct 10, 2007 6:57pm Oct 10, 2007 6:57pm
guys-- THE TREND IS STILL UP
keep that in mind
if ure in shorts--take and bank profits as we move 30-50 pips down
its good MM
once overall the trend becoms bearish--then u can aim for 200-400 pips tgts---
to me we will get a an overall bearsish trend when we close below 50ema 4hr

the good thing for shorts in play is that we once again had 100sma daily rejection yesterday
+ it shorts will give more if we get a close below that 100sma/1hr

till then --ill satnd aside form shorts personally ( already missed a 50 pip short 15min sugnal)--not gettin in any shorts right now
  • #38,943
  • Oct 10, 2007 6:58pm Oct 10, 2007 6:58pm
Quoting my2buoys
This sucker is liable to end up closing right on the 1H 50EMA. I hate when that happens. It makes ya squirm a little bit longer if you're already in a trade either long or short.

M2B


lol--true bro--so true !
  • #38,944
  • Oct 10, 2007 7:02pm Oct 10, 2007 7:02pm
Quoting Hakuna Matata
to me we will get a an overall bearsish trend when we close below 50ema 4hr
Bouncing off the 50ema 4hr is good enough to complete the head and to start building the right shoulder for our big move south. We are heading for 237.
  • #38,945
  • Oct 10, 2007 7:03pm Oct 10, 2007 7:03pm
Still very strong bearish divergence showing on the 4H MACD to price. This chart actually shows double divergence. The move down off of the second divergence could be greater than the first.

M2B

PS- The black line underneath price is a bullish trend line. Don't confuse it with the divergence on this chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 4h.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #38,946
  • Oct 10, 2007 7:09pm Oct 10, 2007 7:09pm
Quoting Hakuna Matata
trading against 50ema/1hr
+ chk the candle pattern on 15min
and whats the trend??-- still UP
i got a good entry on this one thats why ill ride it to the t/p iuf possible
otheriwse ill consider exiting if we get a close below 50ema/1hr or 5min reverssal
Thanks Hakuna, I do see your reasoning for this. Oh and about taking the 20 to 50 pips on the shorts, your a very wise man.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #38,947
  • Oct 10, 2007 7:13pm Oct 10, 2007 7:13pm
Quoting my2buoys
I like that projection (it's the 4H 50EMA), but there is a Daily bullish trend line that hits around 238 that might provide some support.
IM2B
I just did a simple price projection measurment on the H & S and it comes in
237.60...237.50
  • #38,948
  • Oct 10, 2007 7:18pm Oct 10, 2007 7:18pm
Looking at regression analysis on daily, this pair wants to go up from here because it is sitting on the 1st std deviation, possibly 240 area. If it goes down I'll be looking at 237.80.

Looking at the weekly, I wouldn't be surprised if we were in the 236 neighborhood by Friday close, but like I said my prediction is 240 before the next significant fall.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #38,949
  • Oct 10, 2007 7:30pm Oct 10, 2007 7:30pm
Quoting my2buoys
Still very strong bearish divergence showing on the 4H MACD to price. This chart actually shows double divergence. The move down off of the second divergence could be greater than the first.

M2B

PS- The black line underneath price is a bullish trend line. Don't confuse it with the divergence on this chart.

M2B: Just a quick note to thank you for this chart. I did some googling on what you were showing and got quite an education. I appreciate and look forward to all your posts.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #38,950
  • Edited 11:12pm Oct 10, 2007 7:31pm | Edited 11:12pm
Quoting jarroo
retrace of 5sma on the 15 min . . .short at 239.81.

jim
Took half position (TP) at the 1hour 50 ema 238.92, letting the other half ride (4hour ema at 237.50ish looks good).

Thanks Aus and Karmo. Note: I did not follow Aus strategy to the letter, very risky on my part. I had other confluences for my decision: 4 hour pin, S/R zone, etc.

Thanks,
Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #38,951
  • Oct 10, 2007 7:36pm Oct 10, 2007 7:36pm
Quoting lepiricus
Looking at regression analysis on daily, this pair wants to go up from here because it is sitting on the 1st std deviation, possibly 240 area. If it goes down I'll be looking at 237.80.

Looking at the weekly, I wouldn't be surprised if we were in the 236 neighborhood by Friday close, but like I said my prediction is 240 before the next significant fall.
I like the big yellow line on your chart for a target. Could that be the Daily 200 EMA? 235.00ish
  • #38,952
  • Oct 10, 2007 7:38pm Oct 10, 2007 7:38pm
Quoting maestr2
M2B: Just a quick note to thank you for this chart. I did some googling on what you were showing and got quite an education. I appreciate and look forward to all your posts.
You're welcome. Please remember, however, that divergence should only be used as an identifier of an upcoming move or a confirmation of a trade you may be getting ready to enter. Using it alone as an entry can be harmful because sometimes the first divergence signal doesn't move price that much. You can usually see divergence setting up on MACD (which I prefer to use for a signal) long before the move actually happens. Check out Aus's Weekly analysis thread to see the chart I posted of this last weekend.

M2B
  • #38,953
  • Oct 10, 2007 7:46pm Oct 10, 2007 7:46pm
I know the 30M isn't as powerful, but I still hate seeing that pin bar on the 30M chart.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 30m.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #38,954
  • Oct 10, 2007 7:53pm Oct 10, 2007 7:53pm
Quoting my2buoys
I know the 30M isn't as powerful, but I still hate seeing that pin bar on the 30M chart.

M2B
I agree, but it looks like the one about 7Hrs ago. I like the 17:00 EST Daily Pin Bar
  • #38,955
  • Oct 10, 2007 7:57pm Oct 10, 2007 7:57pm
Quoting Kyote
I agree, but it looks like the one about 7Hrs ago. I like the 17:00 EST Daily Pin Bar
That is a nice Daily pin. Even mine, which closed at 8PM EST, is showing a nice bearish pin.

M2B
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy daily.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #38,956
  • Oct 10, 2007 7:58pm Oct 10, 2007 7:58pm
grrrrr......just needs to break this support.
  • #38,957
  • Oct 10, 2007 8:01pm Oct 10, 2007 8:01pm
Quoting my2buoys
That is a nice Daily pin. Even mine, which closed at 8PM EST, is showing a nice bearish pin.

M2B
Sorry, It was the 20:00est (8:00pm est)
  • #38,958
  • Oct 10, 2007 8:03pm Oct 10, 2007 8:03pm
Hi everybody thanks for sharing yours opinions,my live account little growth thanks
  • #38,959
  • Oct 10, 2007 8:09pm Oct 10, 2007 8:09pm
Quoting mktjong
It looks more like of GBP weak not Yen strong. Other yen pairs not moving much .. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif
Quoting Geppy
well, it was a UK number so . . .
If the weak in GBP not Yen, we would probably see this pair go up again (very likely).
  • #38,960
  • Oct 10, 2007 8:12pm Oct 10, 2007 8:12pm
Quoting mktjong
If the weak in GBP not Yen, we would probably see this pair go up again (very likely).

come on already, make a move in a direction. and if the gbp is weak and the yen stays the same, gbp/jpy will go lower.
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