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Part Time Wealth Building Trading System - Weekly Scalping

  • #1,361
  • Sep 27, 2007 12:05pm Sep 27, 2007 12:05pm
Waiting is hard! But at the very least, it looks like Guppy is getting ready to explode next week, so I am looking forward to that.

My problem is often that big moves happen around 4am on Tuesday and Wednesday EST. I am always very asleep during that time, and in the morning I am getting children and myself ready for the day. So a system that lets me in at the beginning of the week ( when nothing much is happening ) and gets me out on Friday after the traders all go home, is very appealing.

I'm also wondering if now is the best time to try trading the Pound on this system - looking at recent volumes, it seems the action is more Yen based - GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, USD/JPY, etc. Could be that silly carry trade thing again...
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #1,362
  • Sep 28, 2007 4:56pm Sep 28, 2007 4:56pm
BTW, today was a very good reason why to keep in place that 3rd order, like I talked about above, lol. We got that late week rally. Unfortunately, it dipped just a little too much before the rally kicked off and knocked me out of the run (and at this point, 3 stops was enough and only hindsight tells me a 4th would have been appropriate).

This is, of course, why you need to monitor the daily trades as well

I'll be checking out Guppy this sunday, per your comment above, Pidgeon
  • #1,363
  • Sep 28, 2007 9:41pm Sep 28, 2007 9:41pm
Euro worked again on this method but it was slow going. The point is use this time to do something else instead it not about staring at the screen all week. As i said in my earlier post look how the weekly candle developed. Once established it just kept going north right up to the bell rang for closing Friday.

I also suggest a max of two attempts per week. If it has failed then its highly likely to be a choppy week. I had one entry at 14149 which was the 24 hours open weekly high trade entry price based on black scholes and closed at 14266 = 117 pip. The short entry price was 14051. There are many weeks which rise say 50 pips then dip below the weekly zero open price to catch those trying to play the line. Had you moved stop reverse here then you will of course be stopped AND go short when the market is still long.

IMO you have to go to risk by leaving stops at opposite entry which is what i did again this week. SO although the risk exposure is 100 pips for 117 profit its not in practice in a market which is trending because once established its unlikely to reverse. In fact my probability is actually much better then your risk for 60 pips and moving stops closer is likely you will be stopped twice for 120 pip loss.

Its very important to realize that every pair has different optimum hi low prices based on volatility which also changes throughout the year. Euro made 22 year low on the volatility back in Q1 when weekly range was barely 40 pips compared to the 150+ we have now. This means you can NOT use the same fixed stop entry prices of say 30 pips nor can you use the same for a pair like cable. If you are too close no trend has been set for the week and the chance of you getting banged increases dramatically.

On the flip side a pair like euro cable which don't go far will optimize very nice on say 25 pip entries. In addition its a known fact you can even out your success rate by running say 3 or 5 pairs a week. 1 or 2 might get banged but its good for moral too knowing that the other 3 soared into profits. Also there will be weeks where some pairs are dead flat and rather then waste a week of your life seeing no progress the other pairs may also run profits. The more you attempt to filter these systems or close up stops the higher the risk of false entries and getting banged thus lower profits.

So many traders cant wont trade weekly but its actually not bad when you think of how 90% of weeks actually pan out. Typically, Monday is flat if Friday was a rally day so you sit all day for a move under 25 pips terribly slow pips. Tuesday often goes the other way to Fridays to build up inertia for the week maybe 50 pips. Wednesday anything can happen though statically not much and usually reverses Tuesdays but often has established a trend for the week. Thursday and Friday often are news triggered where price goes all over the place, does the complete opposite of what you thought was going to happen when you are staring at the 15 mins chart and ignores the data releases and ends up 100+ pips over the 2 days going where the weekly system knew it was going anyway.
  • #1,364
  • Oct 1, 2007 9:45am Oct 1, 2007 9:45am
Quoting Pidgeon
The point of this system is not to overtrade. That's what it overcomes.
If you get stopped out, you get stopped out. Its not designed to give multiple new entries during the week, everything is based on the close of the prior week....

The point of the system is to make a profit during those weeks which trend in one direction ( for many hundreds of pips ) while keeping losses small during those weeks when markets are ranging....

Oh, one more thing....if you cant stand to see it go up by 200 pips, and then end with a 30 pip loss, then this is not the system for you....

I couldn't have worded those thoughts any better.

The fewer attempts you allow yourself each week, the higher your overall edge per trade. Yes, you will miss some big moves if you only take the first trade, get stopped out and stand aside the rest of the week.

For people starting this method, I recommend trading 2 - 4 different pairs, but taking only the very first trade triggered in each of the pairs each week.

Since the biggest profits come from the trades which take off from the very beginning of the week and charge on to Friday--- you will be getting most of those and no multiple losses typical of the chop weeks.

Have a great week!

TRT
  • #1,365
  • Oct 1, 2007 10:15am Oct 1, 2007 10:15am
This is a phantastic system. I must say. Simple and powerful. Just one has to adapt if not right for its persoanlity and perform calculations (hard work, ohh gosh) to fit it to the personality and make it profitable for that personality...


Sorry for personality word repeating it..
.
  • #1,366
  • Oct 3, 2007 6:45am Oct 3, 2007 6:45am
Quoting Bolt
Euro worked again on this method but it was slow going. The point is use this time to do something else instead it not about staring at the screen all week. As i said in my earlier post look how the weekly candle developed. Once established it just kept going north right up to the bell rang for closing Friday.

I also suggest a max of two attempts per week. If it has failed then its highly likely to be a choppy week. I had one entry at 14149 which was the 24 hours open weekly high trade entry price based on black scholes and closed at 14266 = 117 pip. The short entry price was 14051. There are many weeks which rise say 50 pips then dip below the weekly zero open price to catch those trying to play the line. Had you moved stop reverse here then you will of course be stopped AND go short when the market is still long.

IMO you have to go to risk by leaving stops at opposite entry which is what i did again this week. SO although the risk exposure is 100 pips for 117 profit its not in practice in a market which is trending because once established its unlikely to reverse. In fact my probability is actually much better then your risk for 60 pips and moving stops closer is likely you will be stopped twice for 120 pip loss.

Its very important to realize that every pair has different optimum hi low prices based on volatility which also changes throughout the year. Euro made 22 year low on the volatility back in Q1 when weekly range was barely 40 pips compared to the 150+ we have now. This means you can NOT use the same fixed stop entry prices of say 30 pips nor can you use the same for a pair like cable. If you are too close no trend has been set for the week and the chance of you getting banged increases dramatically.

On the flip side a pair like euro cable which don't go far will optimize very nice on say 25 pip entries. In addition its a known fact you can even out your success rate by running say 3 or 5 pairs a week. 1 or 2 might get banged but its good for moral too knowing that the other 3 soared into profits. Also there will be weeks where some pairs are dead flat and rather then waste a week of your life seeing no progress the other pairs may also run profits. The more you attempt to filter these systems or close up stops the higher the risk of false entries and getting banged thus lower profits.

So many traders cant wont trade weekly but its actually not bad when you think of how 90% of weeks actually pan out. Typically, Monday is flat if Friday was a rally day so you sit all day for a move under 25 pips terribly slow pips. Tuesday often goes the other way to Fridays to build up inertia for the week maybe 50 pips. Wednesday anything can happen though statically not much and usually reverses Tuesdays but often has established a trend for the week. Thursday and Friday often are news triggered where price goes all over the place, does the complete opposite of what you thought was going to happen when you are staring at the 15 mins chart and ignores the data releases and ends up 100+ pips over the 2 days going where the weekly system knew it was going anyway.
Hi Bolt,

Would you mind explaining more on how you figure your entries with Black Scholes? Or point me in the right direction for an explanation? Thanks!

Chris
  • #1,367
  • Oct 6, 2007 7:13am Oct 6, 2007 7:13am
Hi Bolt.

I would be curious too how you time your entry using the Black Scholes calculations.. Thanks
.
  • #1,368
  • Oct 7, 2007 6:13pm Oct 7, 2007 6:13pm
Greetings,
I'm trying to load the rhythm EA into interbank-mt4 platform to no avail.
I open the program and compile, which in turn is suppose to replace the MQ4 extension with a new extension of EX4. When I try to compile I get no errors and nothing is changed. So what am I doing wrong. Any help is appreciated.
  • #1,369
  • Oct 8, 2007 4:43am Oct 8, 2007 4:43am
Quoting mrxit
Greetings,
I'm trying to load the rhythm EA into interbank-mt4 platform to no avail.
I open the program and compile, which in turn is suppose to replace the MQ4 extension with a new extension of EX4. When I try to compile I get no errors and nothing is changed. So what am I doing wrong. Any help is appreciated.
After compiling you don't replace mq4 with ex4 but create ex4. As long as you are dong this in a corect directory (experts), a new expert should become available in navigator from where you can drop it on chart.
  • #1,370
  • Oct 8, 2007 8:58am Oct 8, 2007 8:58am
I closed last week out with 356 pips, not too shabby. I did make one small mistake, I forgot the market ( at least the demo I'm using from InterbankFX ) closes at 4pm EST on Friday, not 5pm! But no harm, I just closed everything out on Sunday when it opened.

I'm going to try running 3 different pairs this week to see how that averages out, and if I get stopped on any. I'm trading EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, and USD/CAD. We'll see how it goes...
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #1,371
  • Oct 8, 2007 11:03am Oct 8, 2007 11:03am
  •  shauny
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Still learning and never gonna stop | 127 Posts
I entered a demo trade for GBP/USD

Last week closed 2.0419.

Sell order was trigger @ 2.0369
Stoploss @ 2.0399

My stoploss was taken out, but the price went back to its original direction.

My question is once stoploss is taken out for sell order, do we set the sell order again for capture in the event, price went back to its original direction, in this case, a downmove.

Any ideas?
  • #1,372
  • Oct 8, 2007 10:33pm Oct 8, 2007 10:33pm
Hi Guys, I was desperately looking for a system and found this thread interesting and simple. At first when I saw this system and tried to paper trade with Weekly and Daily and hourly charts where available, I was very excited to see the profits..

Then I decided to actually simulate the Price Feed servers (I did this in Java) with tick by tick price feeds. I got the Tick Data from RapidSP site (I purchased the software long time back).

I was completly shocked to see the results. With paper trading I got an average of atleast 1500 pips per Year. This drastically came down to like 500 pips for 2006 GBPUSD with huge and multiple drawdowns. I thought Either my Code is bul..sh... or I am doing some thing wrong. When I digged more into the actual tick pricess I realized that what seems to be a perfect Long candle on hourly/daily charts actually has whipsaws of more than 30 pips in either directions and triggering my stop losses.

So my question is did any one following the Rules posted in 1st post of this thread achived profits in either demo trading or live trading continueoulsy over a period of time (6 months will be good)? No paper trading please as we might miss the small price swings that can trigger stop losses.... Also I saw some equity and performance chanrts in the thread... how were they generated? Based on just daily prices or did they actually took price swings with in the daily candles into considetaion?

As you can tell from my post I am desperately looking for a break but dont want adopt a system with out fully testing it and trusting it. I am demo trading this and got good results in the last few weeks but this is again because of strong trending market....
  • #1,373
  • Edited 1:29am Oct 9, 2007 1:19am | Edited 1:29am
Quoting dsrfun
Hi Guys, I was desperately looking for a system and found this thread interesting and simple. At first when I saw this system and tried to paper trade with Weekly and Daily and hourly charts where available, I was very excited to see the profits..

Then I decided to actually simulate the Price Feed servers (I did this in Java) with tick by tick price feeds. I got the Tick Data from RapidSP site (I purchased the software long time back).

I was completly shocked to see the results. With paper trading I got an average of atleast 1500 pips per Year. This drastically came down to like 500 pips for 2006 GBPUSD with huge and multiple drawdowns. I thought Either my Code is bul..sh... or I am doing some thing wrong. When I digged more into the actual tick pricess I realized that what seems to be a perfect Long candle on hourly/daily charts actually has whipsaws of more than 30 pips in either directions and triggering my stop losses.

So my question is did any one following the Rules posted in 1st post of this thread achived profits in either demo trading or live trading continueoulsy over a period of time (6 months will be good)? No paper trading please as we might miss the small price swings that can trigger stop losses.... Also I saw some equity and performance chanrts in the thread... how were they generated? Based on just daily prices or did they actually took price swings with in the daily candles into considetaion?

As you can tell from my post I am desperately looking for a break but dont want adopt a system with out fully testing it and trusting it. I am demo trading this and got good results in the last few weeks but this is again because of strong trending market....
I am using a 100 pips SL. Try that way.

EDIT: 30 pips is very small IMHO. A weekly movement in GU can be 500-800 pips.. Do you think 30 pips SL will do... Nope.. Try to search for the SIBKIS system on Google. It is very similar to this one. And they are using a 110 pips channel around the closing price of the previous week.
.
  • #1,374
  • Oct 10, 2007 1:22pm Oct 10, 2007 1:22pm
Quoting bullrock
I am using a 100 pips SL. Try that way.

EDIT: 30 pips is very small IMHO. A weekly movement in GU can be 500-800 pips.. Do you think 30 pips SL will do... Nope.. Try to search for the SIBKIS system on Google. It is very similar to this one. And they are using a 110 pips channel around the closing price of the previous week.
Trading involves tradeoffs.

Very good idea to use a larger "hit number" than 30 pips. With only 30 pip separations, you would be mostly trading "noise".

I've mentioned in posts before that I've been trading a close variation of this system in currencies for decades. My variation adjusts the buy/sell numbers offset from the beginning of the week based on current market volatility. In the last two years the buy/sell numbers have varied from 38 pips - all the way up to 145. Last year was a slightly above average profitable year in the GBP/USD.

  1. Low weekly volatility = smaller breakout numbers.
  2. Higher weekly volatility = higher breakout numbers.

You should have little difficulty in finding a combination that works for you if you have a testing platform and data that goes back 15 - 25 years.

TRT

  • #1,375
  • Oct 10, 2007 1:38pm Oct 10, 2007 1:38pm
Quoting TheRealThing
Trading involves tradeoffs.

Very good idea to use a larger "hit number" than 30 pips. With only 30 pip separations, you would be mostly trading "noise".

I've mentioned in posts before that I've been trading a close variation of this system in currencies for decades. My variation adjusts the buy/sell numbers offset from the beginning of the week based on current market volatility. In the last two years the buy/sell numbers have varied from 38 pips - all the way up to 145. Last year was a slightly above average profitable year in the GBP/USD.

  1. Low weekly volatility = smaller breakout numbers.
  2. Higher weekly volatility = higher breakout numbers.

You should have little difficulty in finding a combination that works for you if you have a testing platform and data that goes back 15 - 25 years.

TRT

I am using an excel sheet for that matter .. Also I am scaling out as the trade goes in my favour plus pulling to breakeven thinking of the phrase "expect the unexpected"
.
  • #1,376
  • Oct 16, 2007 8:34am Oct 16, 2007 8:34am
Quoting bullrock
I am using a 100 pips SL. Try that way.

EDIT: 30 pips is very small IMHO. A weekly movement in GU can be 500-800 pips.. Do you think 30 pips SL will do... Nope.. Try to search for the SIBKIS system on Google. It is very similar to this one. And they are using a 110 pips channel around the closing price of the previous week.

Hi Bullrock, I'm with you on the 100 pip stop loss, seems much more prudent. I don't use a fixed 100, rather try to use S/R zones or other logical points but try to keep it around the 100 level. Do you use a max number of stop outs per week? Or do you just let it go all week like Tkimble originally advised? Also, do you enter immediately at the beginning of the week or do you use a straddle?

Thanks Real Thing also for your insightful posts about using your own version of this system. Seems this thread has really lost it's steam, anybody have any idea what happened to TK?
  • #1,377
  • Oct 16, 2007 11:25am Oct 16, 2007 11:25am
Quoting Philww
Hi Bullrock, I'm with you on the 100 pip stop loss, seems much more prudent. I don't use a fixed 100, rather try to use S/R zones or other logical points but try to keep it around the 100 level. Do you use a max number of stop outs per week? Or do you just let it go all week like Tkimble originally advised? Also, do you enter immediately at the beginning of the week or do you use a straddle?

Thanks Real Thing also for your insightful posts about using your own version of this system. Seems this thread has really lost it's steam, anybody have any idea what happened to TK?

Many of Bullrock and TRT insights are worth reading. This is a good thread and I hope it can continue. I started to test the weeklies this week. I am using a mix of Bull's and TRT's ideas from other posts.

I straddled the closing price from last week on E/U, G/U, U/CHF, U/YEN, and GBP/Yen with 50 pips (60 on G/Y) up and down.

I am using 100 pip stop loss and only taking one trade and cancelling the other when triggered.

I am using three lots, 1 closes at 25% of ATR14, 2 closes out at 50% of ATR14 and the third rides. I am also considering moving the SL to BE once the 25% marker has been hit on the two open lots. I just have not hit that yet.

I was stopped out on the LONG G/Y trade that got triggered. I will check how the rest is going tonight when I get home from work and post my results when I can (hopefully once per week or so). I am also open to suggestions or opinions of this test.

Chris
  • #1,378
  • Oct 16, 2007 12:44pm Oct 16, 2007 12:44pm
Quoting Philww
Hi Bullrock, I'm with you on the 100 pip stop loss, seems much more prudent. I don't use a fixed 100, rather try to use S/R zones or other logical points but try to keep it around the 100 level. Do you use a max number of stop outs per week? Or do you just let it go all week like Tkimble originally advised? Also, do you enter immediately at the beginning of the week or do you use a straddle?

Thanks Real Thing also for your insightful posts about using your own version of this system. Seems this thread has really lost it's steam, anybody have any idea what happened to TK?
I am entering straight at the beginning of the week. No straddling. No channels and the like. Based on the previous bars I decide up or down and enter. 100 pips SL with logical limits yes and revers when hit. I do that once a week. So max 2 trades also when I am 100 pips profit I cash in 1/3 of the positions and put SL to BE.
.
  • #1,379
  • Oct 16, 2007 12:47pm Oct 16, 2007 12:47pm
Last week was a bad one for guppy. Up and down, so I stayed out of the market. This week, after an initial stop on the buy at 239.85 was hit, pair is now solidly down today, and should stay so for the week. Currently have 150 pips on the sell trade at 238.65. I did use a wider channel this week, 60 pips instead of the usual 50 from last week's close.

My rules for this system...in case you don't want to read the thread...

1. On Monday morning, place buy / sell stops at predetermined range from prev week's close. Range differs by which pair is traded.
2. If both orders get stopped out then price is choppy and we are done for the week.
3. Stops only get moved up to break-even once trend is in place for several days.
4. Take profit near market close on Friday.
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #1,380
  • Oct 16, 2007 12:47pm Oct 16, 2007 12:47pm
Quoting Cmartin371
Many of Bullrock and TRT insights are worth reading. This is a good thread and I hope it can continue. I started to test the weeklies this week. I am using a mix of Bull's and TRT's ideas from other posts.

I straddled the closing price from last week on E/U, G/U, U/CHF, U/YEN, and GBP/Yen with 50 pips (60 on G/Y) up and down.

I am using 100 pip stop loss and only taking one trade and cancelling the other when triggered.

I am using three lots, 1 closes at 25% of ATR14, 2 closes out at 50% of ATR14 and the third rides. I am also considering moving the SL to BE once the 25% marker has been hit on the two open lots. I just have not hit that yet.

I was stopped out on the LONG G/Y trade that got triggered. I will check how the rest is going tonight when I get home from work and post my results when I can (hopefully once per week or so). I am also open to suggestions or opinions of this test.

Chris
Well done. This is a good strategy like that. A little bit reflects my daily strategy. Also for example if the previous week closed higher than the one before go long or vice versa. Or can play with higher high/lower high and the lower low/lower high thing.
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