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Karmo's trading strategy trading GBP/JPY

  • #141
  • Sep 15, 2007 10:45am Sep 15, 2007 10:45am
This past week was excellent, hopefully next week will be better and with bigger move since the Fed is going to have a little party with us lol

Ok, let's get to analyzing..
After learning about the great Moving Averages (50ema, 100sma, 200ema) from our MA master 'Hakuna Matata', I have drawn my weekly fibonacci levels differently this week (weekly chart) and I will explain to you why.

As we know, Moving Averages provide Support/Resistance levels, so now have a look at the chart and see how nicely price reacted (I'm amazed!). Now let's add some Fibo's to our cocktail, the 200ema acted as a support (it barely touched it, but I'll take it as support) on 17/07/05 , now if you draw a Fibonacci retracement from this low to the high of 251.07

http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/1646/gjij9.gif

Now look at that 100sma and 50% level, they were both close to each other and price bounced off that area perfectly. I said last week 212 is next on the cards for GJ but I'll change it to 212-214, since our 61.8% fibo is at 215 and 200ema is just below it, 212-214 should be achieavable in the coming weeks/months.

Remember now, we have lots of supports to break before getting there.. I don't trade based on weekly charts, I just have them in order to have an idea of where price might go next.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #142
  • Sep 15, 2007 10:50am Sep 15, 2007 10:50am
Daily chart:

That descending TL from the top has been acting as a support lately, but I believe it will be broken and next support area for GJ based on the daily chart is the 23.6% fibo level.

http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/250/gjna5.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #143
  • Sep 15, 2007 10:57am Sep 15, 2007 10:57am
4H chart:

The price has been bouncing off the green 61.8%, 50%, and 38.2% fibo levels, once price breaks the 38.2% + TL (close to my 2nd TP), 23.6% is next where we also have a weekly TL waiting for us there.


http://img460.imageshack.us/img460/1905/gjgw5.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #144
  • Sep 15, 2007 12:07pm Sep 15, 2007 12:07pm
Karmo,

Thanks for these charts, especially where the fibonacci's are drawn, they are invaluable

Good luck for coming week

Jason
  • #145
  • Sep 16, 2007 1:15pm Sep 16, 2007 1:15pm
so are you thinking the previous resistance has become it's new support in a continued down trend?
looking on the weekly it looks like consolidation. but on H4 and H1 looks like still down.
  • #146
  • Edited 3:50pm Sep 17, 2007 3:28pm | Edited 3:50pm
Quoting MPP
Another way

Save as picture - on desktop
when writing your post click on the paperclip next to the smilies. a upload facility will open, browes, select image, upload, click paperclip to open.

quick and easy.


pls i do i post charts as thumbnails
  • #147
  • Sep 17, 2007 4:51pm Sep 17, 2007 4:51pm
Hi Karmo. Nice analysis. I was just curious as to why you used mid july to take the weekly fibs from rather than January, is there a specific rule that you use.
Thanks, Bogus.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #148
  • Sep 22, 2007 2:43pm Sep 22, 2007 2:43pm
Quoting bogus
Hi Karmo. Nice analysis. I was just curious as to why you used mid july to take the weekly fibs from rather than January, is there a specific rule that you use.
Thanks, Bogus.
The weekly chart has been the most difficult one to drawn proper fibs on, I do not rely on the weekly much since I'm an intra-day trader.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #149
  • Sep 22, 2007 2:45pm Sep 22, 2007 2:45pm
For the past 2 weeks or so, price has been bouncing off the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% fib levels on the 4h chart, we also have a triangle, once it breaksout.. we will have a clear direction. 200ema (red line) has been a good resistance.

http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/7936/gjqc4.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #150
  • Sep 30, 2007 10:31am Sep 30, 2007 10:31am
GJ has broken to the upside as we know but we have a very strong resistance at 235.20-45, if this resistance is broken then 238 is definitely a target. A 50% retracement is possible first to 233.70 area where we also have 50ema.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 24 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #151
  • Oct 6, 2007 9:48am Oct 6, 2007 9:48am
Daily chart is very bullish, so is the 4H, price completed it's daily 61.8% retracement from it's last fall to 219 area. Where will price go next? It could retrace back to the daily 50% fibo to see if it supports or not, or it could still go higher, the trendline is still supporting this upward trend, I wouldn't short this pair unless the TL gets broken and retracement for this last upward movement starts. I've also drawn a new fibo for this last daily swing (assuming this is the top, otherwise this fibo is invalid), you can see the 38.2% fibo (green) is very to close to the daily 50%, so it could retrace to that area and then bounce back up or it could retrace to it's favorite fibo level which is the 50%. This week should be interesting and lots of pips for us to grab.

http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/6210/4hhr5.gif

http://img512.imageshack.us/img512/8792/1hjg2.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #152
  • Oct 6, 2007 11:35am Oct 6, 2007 11:35am
I'm getting to the point where I don't feel comfortable trading the gbp/jpy until I see Karmostaji's latest thinking.
Thanks for your analysis.
  • #153
  • Oct 8, 2007 5:28am Oct 8, 2007 5:28am
hi,
please advise what period momentum indicator is to be set?
regards
Quoting karmostaji
Hi all,

I'm going to explain the strategy I use to trade GJ and I'm going to be posting my weekly/daily analysis of this pair.

I don't use anything fancy, I use some basic stuff that most traders use and some common sense

The indicators I use are:

  1. Fibonacci retracement levels
  2. Trendlines/Channels
  3. 5 period simple MA
  4. Candlestick patterns
  5. Support/Resistance levels
  6. Momentum

As you can see it's all simple and basic stuff except maybe for the fibonacci retracement, because every trader could use it differently. If you have any doubts about any of the stuff I use, either ask or just do a simple google search and you'll find plenty of information about them.

Using the fibonacci retracement on different timeframes (1H, 4H, Daily, Weekly) is very important, because sometimes some of them overlap and that tells us where we might find strong support/resistance. I'll post some examples.

If you have been following my posts on Auslanco's thread, you will know that we use the 5SMA for a good entry point when a retracement occurs (Thank you Auslanco).

Most of the time, I trade based on the 4H chart, but I keep an eye on the daily chart and sometimes the weekly chart. I use the 1H chart for a good entry point. Any TF less than 1H has a lot of noise and it is very risky trading GJ on very small TF's.

Using stop-loss, I always wait for my trade to go in my direction for about 50-100 pips before I move my SL and lock in a very small # of pips (10) and then just let it run until it reaches my TP, this way I don't let a winning trade turn into a losing one, and if my SL gets hit, no worries coz +10 is way better than anything negative

Momentum & 5sma
Before using the Momentum indicator and 5sma, you must have auslanco's QQE indicator. I'll explain how to catch a retracement in this following example:
When QQE 4h is crossed upwards, and QQE 1hr is crossed upwards, and the Momentum at the beginning of the next 1h candle is pointing downwards, price will usually retrace to 1hr 5sma, it's that simple.

  • #154
  • Oct 8, 2007 12:29pm Oct 8, 2007 12:29pm
Quoting kenneith
hi,
please advise what period momentum indicator is to be set?
regards
Period: 10
Apply to: Close
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #155
  • Oct 8, 2007 3:04pm Oct 8, 2007 3:04pm
hi
thanks for the reply. you are doing a great job mate, keep it up.
regards
kenneith
  • #156
  • Oct 9, 2007 4:05am Oct 9, 2007 4:05am
thanks buddy. if u dont mind i want to ask some questions abt gbp/jpy 15min strategy about some indicators on vt charts. i am new to ff as well as trading and i know i am putting silly questions but this is the only way to learn from learned guys like u. awaiting for yr reply
regards
kenneith
Quoting karmostaji
Period: 10
Apply to: Close
  • #157
  • Oct 9, 2007 4:11am Oct 9, 2007 4:11am
Quoting kenneith
thanks buddy. if u dont mind i want to ask some questions abt gbp/jpy 15min strategy about some indicators on vt charts. i am new to ff as well as trading and i know i am putting silly questions but this is the only way to learn from learned guys like u. awaiting for yr reply
regards
kenneith
Go ahead kenneith, but I hope you have looked at the 15m strategy thread itself first.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #158
  • Oct 9, 2007 4:42am Oct 9, 2007 4:42am
thanks again. i hv looked at the strategy but the problem is that i am unable to find following:
Level stop Reverse version2
values: ATR Periods 9
ATR Multiplier 3
finally QQE alert
values: Smoothing Factor 60.
i am using vt charts and i tried to find there but i couldnt.
i couldnt get it from aus's thread as i am using windows vista probably that could be the reason i couldnt find the file.
please advise.
regards
kenneith
  • #159
  • Oct 9, 2007 11:05am Oct 9, 2007 11:05am
Karmo
still awiting for yr reply as i couldnt manage to find it anywhere.
regards
kenneith
Quoting karmostaji
Go ahead kenneith, but I hope you have looked at the 15m strategy thread itself first.
  • #160
  • Oct 10, 2007 1:16pm Oct 10, 2007 1:16pm
hi,

i would like to know how do you manage to set up different colours for fibo retracements on chart, within MT4

thanks ,
The risk is what gives value to an investment.
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