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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #38,801
  • Oct 10, 2007 9:48am Oct 10, 2007 9:48am
I'm going to re-enter short on this retrace (or break) for a target back to 237. That should also put my other entries back into the green.
  • #38,802
  • Oct 10, 2007 9:51am Oct 10, 2007 9:51am
Quoting markam
I thought I would throw in a possible leading indicator regarding the impending stock crash.

Here is dow jones industrial average (DJIA) and dow jones transportation average (DJT) plotted together during the internet crash.

Attachment

you can see both indexes peaked together in May of 99. They then diverged and DJT started down. It wasn't until 9 months later that DJIA began it's real crash.

Here are the indexes today.

Attachment

Once again, you have dual peaks followed by a divergence. If DJT doesnt set a new high, I think we will see a repeat of 1999-2000 very shortly. With the poor numbers being seen in container shipping and consumer sales, there is very little chance that the transportation index is going to be setting a new high.
I used to use the DJT a lot as an indicator when trading Dow Futures - also the SOX was useful and I think also now showing divergence. However, I´m still not convinced that they will not have one more big effort to hit the 14,563 ATH - just to finalise dumping their remaining longs to the late comers!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #38,803
  • Oct 10, 2007 9:55am Oct 10, 2007 9:55am
The hourly is not going to close as I had anticipated and so I will not be taking that trade. Today I think I am just going to wait for the daily bar to come out.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #38,804
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:03am Oct 10, 2007 10:03am
Quoting karmostaji
ZUP is showing D as 1.618 of XA and also last 4h candle was a reversal sign, so.. let's see and honestly I don't care about what people think, neither should you bro.
You mean ... ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #38,805
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:05am Oct 10, 2007 10:05am
Options traders bearish on Yen.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...currency_rates
  • #38,806
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:24am Oct 10, 2007 10:24am
Quoting FxMt
You mean ... ?
The one I have is a bit different, to have the exact 161.8 level though is 240.50, so we might have 1 more push up left before the big reversal. here's the daily chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4h.gif Size: 24 KB
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #38,807
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:27am Oct 10, 2007 10:27am
Quoting karmostaji
The one I have is a bit different, to have the exact 161.8 level though is 240.50, so we might have 1 more push up left before the big reversal. here's the daily chart.
You said we may have one more push upwards, and I think you have a solid chance of being correct on that. On the 4 hour charts that close in a half an hour for me, if closing at this level, will be closing as a pin or close to it. I will be trading this and going long for a small gain and then shorting once it tells me to.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #38,808
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:31am Oct 10, 2007 10:31am
Quoting Mysticdiver
Options traders bearish on Yen.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...currency_rates
Thanks for the info - as volatility is "mean reverting" and "the mean" from this data is around 15.7%, we can expectan increase in volatility - soon? Now that would be nice.....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #38,809
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:33am Oct 10, 2007 10:33am
Quoting karmostaji
lol I'm in the UJ trade from 117.52, let's see how it turns out good luck bro
Purrrrfect entry...to the pip http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #38,810
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:35am Oct 10, 2007 10:35am
Quoting karmostaji
The one I have is a bit different, to have the exact 161.8 level though is 240.50, so we might have 1 more push up left before the big reversal. here's the daily chart.
Not sure. I'm thinking a small retrace to 239.75/239.85 and then to 237. The high could be in so I'll be shorting there anyway. Stop will be above your reversal point.
  • #38,811
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:38am Oct 10, 2007 10:38am
it just did a small retrace up to the 239.75 =)

Quoting Zoran
Not sure. I'm thinking a small retrace to 239.75/239.85 and then to 237. The high could be in so I'll be shorting there anyway. Stop will be above your reversal point.
  • #38,812
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:40am Oct 10, 2007 10:40am
Quoting Zoran
Not sure. I'm thinking a small retrace to 239.75/239.85 and then to 237. The high could be in. I'll be shorting there anyway. Stop will be above your reversal point.
Here is some bearish divergence on my hourly.
Although the phase of my chart is not ideal for trading divergence right, I would hesitate going long, and would more likely look for a short scalp on my 15m.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #38,813
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:41am Oct 10, 2007 10:41am
i see this hour as a retracement from down trend. if tis hr close inside my trend channel again, it means we r goin up. if not, i expect tis to fall all the way to 238.70 before meeting wit some bull support... any1 agree?
  • #38,814
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:43am Oct 10, 2007 10:43am
Quoting maheswara
hmmm guess mktjong s gone to sleep , the 15m failed to pass thru the ichimoku cloud , was wondering if its a warning sign to ichimoku users ... anyone to answer ?
Quoting sagecss
Well it still can IMO. I personally will not be considering a short unless brice breaks through the cloud and then possibly even 239.00
(Sorry .. just got back from a meeting)
That's right, will not go short if price doesn't pierce thru and close below it
  • #38,815
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:48am Oct 10, 2007 10:48am
Quoting karmostaji
The one I have is a bit different, to have the exact 161.8 level though is 240.50, so we might have 1 more push up left before the big reversal. here's the daily chart.
We are getting bearish harmonic patterns on the other JPY pairs too, see NZDJPY and USDJPY. What a coincidence
  • #38,816
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:48am Oct 10, 2007 10:48am
Quoting intelmaster
it just did a small retrace up to the 239.75 =)

Mine didn't go that high but I went short at 60 (high was 68).
  • #38,817
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:51am Oct 10, 2007 10:51am
In the short run, I see this puppy (guppy) going to either the 1HR 50ema (preferred stopping point lately) OR the 200ema (broken through the 50EMA on last cycle down)

If 2ooema is confirmed and broken . . . look out below

At any rate, my opinion only

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1192031407
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: guppy-yen.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #38,818
  • Oct 10, 2007 10:54am Oct 10, 2007 10:54am
Quoting mktjong
(Sorry .. just got back from a meeting)
That's right, will not go short if price doesn't pierce thru and close below it
We may have a short signal soon or in 5 min :-)
  • #38,819
  • Oct 10, 2007 11:02am Oct 10, 2007 11:02am
Hey Zoran, just curious how much you'll let those shorts go against you. I saw from your chart you had some from pretty far down there. Also, how do you stand paying the interest everyday on those pups? Triple interest Wednesday today . . .
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #38,820
  • Oct 10, 2007 11:08am Oct 10, 2007 11:08am
Quoting mktjong
We may have a short signal soon or in 5 min :-)
I am already in short @239.42
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