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Flip The Coin System

  • #41
  • Oct 9, 2007 4:14am Oct 9, 2007 4:14am
bullrock.. how do u calculator your stops and tps ?
  • #42
  • Oct 9, 2007 2:50pm Oct 9, 2007 2:50pm
Now let me start this...
We flip the coin (this is a £2 coin) I flip it 3 times and take the average.. (No kidding)
Then I set as follow
SL 100 pips
First TP 50 pips
Second TP 100 pips (at this point I move to BE)
Third TP 150 pips
Fourth unit let it ride till the end of the day

We flip again
When SL hit
or When BE hit
or When in profit we close EOD and we flip again...

Have fun
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  • #43
  • Oct 9, 2007 2:54pm Oct 9, 2007 2:54pm
Quoting bullrock
Now let me start this...
We flip the coin (this is a £2 coin) I flip it 3 times and take the average.. (No kidding)
Then I set as follow
SL 100 pips
First TP 50 pips
Second TP 100 pips (at this point I move to BE)
Third TP 150 pips
Fourth unit let it ride till the end of the day

We flip again
When SL hit
or When BE hit
or When in profit we close EOD and we flip again...

Have fun
OMG! it's a freakin Holy Grail. Where can I buy the EA?


Seriously, this will be interesting to watch what happens.
  • #44
  • Oct 9, 2007 3:00pm Oct 9, 2007 3:00pm
Result:
2 tail, 1 head -> we sell...
Risk 2%

4 units @ 2.03672
SL 20.4672
TP 2.03172
TP 2.02672
TP 2.02172
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FLIP.JPG Size: 226 KB
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  • #45
  • Oct 9, 2007 3:01pm Oct 9, 2007 3:01pm
Quoting smjones
OMG! it's a freakin Holy Grail. Where can I buy the EA?


Seriously, this will be interesting to watch what happens.
It costs 46428463284 USD and pay cash at the counter
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  • #46
  • Oct 9, 2007 3:14pm Oct 9, 2007 3:14pm
For simplicity I am going to use the following link to flip the coin.
http://espse.educ.psu.edu/edpsych/fa.../coinflip.html
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  • #47
  • Oct 9, 2007 3:41pm Oct 9, 2007 3:41pm
Hey Guys,

just wanted to share my point of view on the subject of the market randomness. It is certainly true that markets are random to a large extent. Many great minds have tried to break the "code" but none have succeded. However, there is hope of finding islands of reason in the ocean of market madness.

I've experienced the human element of forex a few month ago. It was late at night, must have been 3 - 4am, UK time, and i was in my bed, with my laptop by my side, audio news service on full volume, waiting for the Japanse to annouce their interest rate decision. In case some of you don't know, Japanese go into a meeting early in the morning and there is no set time for when the news comes out. So a lot of traders are glued to their screens waiting for the news to come out (That was close to the time when they raised from 0.25 to 0.5) you can imagine the tension and trigger happy fingers. All of the sudden I hear, Japan will raise interest rates, shocked i go short on USD/JPY, there is a quick spike but for some reason it was not as shocking as i would expect. So i decided to close and take 10-20 pips profit. A few moment later audio resumes: Correction, Japan MAY raise interest rates. After this the quotes jump back to the "pre-news" level.

There will always be elements of fear and greed in the market, as well as certain degree of momentum. All of this is strongly present in news aftermath price action.

Anyway, i hope someone will find this usefull, or at least amusing, best regards,

Vlad
  • #48
  • Oct 9, 2007 3:46pm Oct 9, 2007 3:46pm
Quoting zek132
Hey Guys,

just wanted to share my point of view on the subject of the market randomness. It is certainly true that markets are random to a large extent. Many great minds have tried to break the "code" but none have succeded. However, there is hope of finding islands of reason in the ocean of market madness.

I've experienced the human element of forex a few month ago. It was late at night, must have been 3 - 4am, UK time, and i was in my bed, with my laptop by my side, audio news service on full volume, waiting for the Japanse to annouce their interest rate decision. In case some of you don't know, Japanese go into a meeting early in the morning and there is no set time for when the news comes out. So a lot of traders are glued to their screens waiting for the news to come out (That was close to the time when they raised from 0.25 to 0.5) you can imagine the tension and trigger happy fingers. All of the sudden I hear, Japan will raise interest rates, shocked i go short on USD/JPY, there is a quick spike but for some reason it was not as shocking as i would expect. So i decided to close and take 10-20 pips profit. A few moment later audio resumes: Correction, Japan MAY raise interest rates. After this the quotes jump back to the "pre-news" level.

There will always be elements of fear and greed in the market, as well as certain degree of momentum. All of this is strongly present in news aftermath price action.

Anyway, i hope someone will find this usefull, or at least amusing, best regards,

Vlad
Thanks for the contribution.. What I try to prove here is that the randomness of the market doesnt matter if you have a solid MM and discipline in place... Have fun
.
  • #49
  • Oct 9, 2007 3:46pm Oct 9, 2007 3:46pm
Quoting bullrock
Now let me start this...
We flip the coin (this is a £2 coin) I flip it 3 times and take the average.. (No kidding)
Then I set as follow
SL 100 pips
First TP 50 pips
Second TP 100 pips (at this point I move to BE)
Third TP 150 pips
Fourth unit let it ride till the end of the day

We flip again
When SL hit
or When BE hit
or When in profit we close EOD and we flip again...

Have fun
It's your game and your rules but I hate to see you ruin it with scaling out. I noticed that you are using the GBPUSD. Even on a good day it has an ATR of less than 150 pips so you are effectively throwing that one away. If you are going to make money out of randomness you need to have a very tight handle on your money management. If your conclusion is that you can win at randomness based on this test at least give it a chance.
  • #50
  • Oct 9, 2007 3:54pm Oct 9, 2007 3:54pm
so all trades will be closed at the EOD? That would be a lot of spreads to the broker, which could hamper things.. just my 2 cents
  • #51
  • Oct 9, 2007 4:13pm Oct 9, 2007 4:13pm
I kind of have to agree with the poster about scaling out. This randomness idea is (or should) be influenced by Tharp. Tharp is also WELL known for his dislike for scaling out except in short daytrade type momentum plays...

I think take the coin flip, then SL = .25 ATR and TP = .5 ATR or something like that...
  • #52
  • Oct 9, 2007 6:35pm Oct 9, 2007 6:35pm
Quoting zek132
Hey Guys,

just wanted to share my point of view on the subject of the market randomness. It is certainly true that markets are random to a large extent. Many great minds have tried to break the "code" but none have succeded. However, there is hope of finding islands of reason in the ocean of market madness.

Vlad

Vlad,
have you ever heard of the theory of ever-changing cycles? Markets keep reversing themselves in the near term, but move in one (fundamental) direction in the long-run.
That said, one should never lose track of the big picture.
  • #53
  • Oct 10, 2007 12:04am Oct 10, 2007 12:04am
Quoting dunningduke
Vlad,
have you ever heard of the theory of ever-changing cycles? Markets keep reversing themselves in the near term, but move in one (fundamental) direction in the long-run.
That said, one should never lose track of the big picture.
This might be true in Equities, i.e always moving up, but i don't think the same can be said in forex. The good thing about trading fundumentals, no matter what the "big picture is", if say, UK CPI comes out deviating by 0.3% next week, there will be a substantial move.

In regards to the coin flip system, i wish i could see it succeed, however, if trading was a simple question of money management, surely more people would be making money. It is certainly important to have a solid capital reservation scheme, however it is not sufficient to beat the market. You have to have odds on your side... The propsed exit/reversal rules don't seem to have anything special to me. Time will tell however... good luck
  • #54
  • Oct 10, 2007 3:18am Oct 10, 2007 3:18am
Quoting zek132
In regards to the coin flip system, i wish i could see it succeed, however, if trading was a simple question of money management, surely more people would be making money. It is certainly important to have a solid capital reservation scheme, however it is not sufficient to beat the market. You have to have odds on your side... The propsed exit/reversal rules don't seem to have anything special to me. Time will tell however... good luck
You do not have to have a good entry system to beat the market. As a matter of fact, many entry systems are less than 50% accurate which is obviously less than a coin flip. You can prove this by using a timed exit only with your entry system. Tell your system to exit in 10 bars regardless of profit. In this experiment, delete all stops, targets, trailing stops, anything else that would cause you to exit the market.

I just did this with a friend's strategy (which is quite profitable) that I watch out of curiosity and the entry accuracy was 40.1% when using a 10 bar exit. The bottom line is that it is not the entry accuracy that makes money. It's the management of the trade and correct position sizing that determine if you are going to survive.
  • #55
  • Oct 10, 2007 4:13am Oct 10, 2007 4:13am
Quoting philmcgrew
You do not have to have a good entry system to beat the market. As a matter of fact, many entry systems are less than 50% accurate which is obviously less than a coin flip. You can prove this by using a timed exit only with your entry system. Tell your system to exit in 10 bars regardless of profit. In this experiment, delete all stops, targets, trailing stops, anything else that would cause you to exit the market.

I just did this with a friend's strategy (which is quite profitable) that I watch out of curiosity and the entry accuracy was 40.1% when using a 10 bar exit. The bottom line is that it is not the entry accuracy that makes money. It's the management of the trade and correct position sizing that determine if you are going to survive.
Hi philmcgrew, thank for your views. Well what I am trying to prove here is that the entry has no imprtance whatsoever (0) and the gains and long term survival is mostly influenced by the money management and the timing of the exit. I am a firm believer that the accuracy of the entry i smuch less imprtant (0%) than the exit. IMHO. Let the xperience prove or disprove this.
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  • #56
  • Oct 10, 2007 4:16am Oct 10, 2007 4:16am
So far -2% PL

That is -100 pips..

We have flipped ... 2 head 1 tail -> buy

Again 100 SL 40 TP 80 TP 120 TP 1 left till next day 12:30 GMT.

Will post pics later
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  • #57
  • Oct 10, 2007 4:22am Oct 10, 2007 4:22am
I have set a TP for the fourth as well. So we do close EOD.. We wait till SL or the TP has been hit.. Flip there again

LE 2.04345

SL 2.03345

TP 2.04745
TP 2.05145
TP 2.05545
TP 2.05945
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  • #58
  • Oct 10, 2007 4:23am Oct 10, 2007 4:23am
Quoting peterM
so all trades will be closed at the EOD? That would be a lot of spreads to the broker, which could hamper things.. just my 2 cents
Yes agree so I have modified it. We will play with 4-5 units each has a TP and an SL and we wait till or the TPs or the SL has been hit.
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  • #59
  • Oct 16, 2007 11:31am Oct 16, 2007 11:31am
any updates?
  • #60
  • Oct 16, 2007 11:56am Oct 16, 2007 11:56am
Quoting philmcgrew
any updates?
Well I just have so little time. I will post some updates.. Sorry about this.
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