EURAUD primed for a turnaround

Just looking over some charts tonight and realized that the EURAUD seems to be ready for a bullish run. As I write this, EURAUD is at 1.5650, which is near the bottom of a multi-year range.

4/11/2004 - low of 1.5686
6/19/2005 - PB low at 1.5537
10/02/2005 - BUOB low at 1.5593
12/4/2005 - low at 1.5612
7/22/2007 - BUOB low at 1.5472

IMO, this adds up to a possible trend change, and I will be buying once I see a bullish signal, probably setting a stop near 1.5450. We have the setup, now it is just a matter of waiting for the signal.

Please leave your opinions,
andersenws

IBFX is showing a completed daily pinbar. I've placed a Buy Stop above the High, and expect it to be triggered later tonight or tomorrow.

andersenws

I wouldn't know a pinbar from a pinhead but I think we have one on the weekly as well. Seems like a decent R:R to me. On second glance-???

It appears that we have some more room to drop.

Buy Stop removed, will be watching for anymore bullish signs this week.

andersenws

andersenws,

I am also using IBFX, but i question if that bar you referred to can really be called a PB when the open and close are pretty much right in the middle of the bar not at one end like a good PB should be if anything it is a spinning top.

That being said i think that it is in a good area to see a reversal signal given that the next 100 pips or so is an area of historical reversals.

Enjoy
Ademac

Oh I'm sorry, the PB is from my MIG demo. For October 8th, I have the following bar:
O - 1.5723
H - 1.5748
L - 1.5635
C - 1.5738
So I am actually seeing a pretty decent PB setup, but I agree with you, the fact that we're at an area of historic reversals is more important than any individual bar signal. I will be waiting

andersenws

I see an Eur/Aud trending down, with the last days having a extremely bearish tone, (acceleration)

Today, was a low volume day with US holiday, so, today's pin bar is not a very good gauge.

If we see a retracement, well why not? Trends do have retracements, to reload positions, to relief indicators....

But multi year reversal based in one big bull candle? Good luck with that.



In my view, forex is about determining how is the current sentiment around in the market, and acting accordingly.

Forex in my humble view, is not about guessing when Millions of Human Beings will change their mood.

I'm sorry, but you have been around this forum since 2006 and you don't know yet what happened to the thousands that passed here trying to call reversals and never been heard again?

"Go with the flow" don't ring a bell?

Reversals in the big picture happen like reversals in the shorter time frames. We must see retests... consolidation... indecision.

Going long, from here expecting a cannon shoot to the moon...hmmmm

Am i wrong?


Just my opinion...

The last time this pair reversed around this level was in July of this year.
07/25/07 - Opened at 1.5684 and closed at 1.5512. Quite the "accelerated" movement, and the next day was bullish all the way back up to 1.5818. It's called a bullish outside bar, and is quite common in trend changes
A good point that I had failed to consider
I'm not sure if you read my analysis in the first post or not, but this is not a multi-year trend reversal, this is a multi-year range that we are near the bottom of. I consider this an ad hominem attack and will not respond to it
Again I am not sure if you actually read all of my first post, especially the bold part, but I will go long when the market triggers my buy stop. I have not actually entered a trade on this pair yet, because it has failed to give me a bullish setup and confirmation

andersenws

Warper,

We where talking about the Posibility of a reversal signal If you understood how to trade off a PB you would know that you only enter the market on a break of the PB. I also have added a picture to help you understand what we where referencing about a good area of a probable change in direction.

Enjoy
Ademac

I apologize andersenws. It's not an attack to you. Sorry about that.

Its just that sometimes i have an hard time to understand why the inconscient human need for a big change in direction.

I don't see no reason other than a psicological R:R that in fact do not really exist most of the times.


ademac, i know you guys are talking about a possibility, but as i understand, range probabilities are not the prime... are they?

In other hand we must add 2 more things.

1- 2007 is being a year of record highs and lows, broken ranges or even broken channel lines that were going in direction of the trend, (case of EU for example)

2- Take a look with attention to that range you guys are talking about...

Do you notice that the "trips" to the highs or to the lows of the range normally would take more than 1 year, and this time it travelled from the bottom to the top and from the top to the bottom in less than 2 months.

This means that this sentiment might be different from the past, and in fact if we look for the monthly, this is not really a range, this is a triangle...


If that turnaround really happens, and it can, wouldn't be more logic to happen a little more close to the barriers, instead of near a price level with huge downward momentum pointed to that levels?




What i know for sure is this. Eur/Aud is trending down since middle 2006, almost 1 year and a half, trend.

For me, bulish candles mean "Wait"/"Correction", solid higher highs patterns will mean something more.

Two days don't do it, but thats just me.


In fact you don't need to take it from me.

I leave for you guys, an article about EUR/AUD with another reason why we shouldn't go buying at this levels.

http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/9416/audhf8.jpg


We are almost 300 pips above this barrier, i think this is a target for the big fish, considering the recent acceleration, after breaking the last fib level instead of a bullish rebound.

If we see a bull candle... So? This pair is droping so sharp that is difficult to atract new sellers all the time without a profit taking relief.

Remember, i'm not saying that will or will not break the range.
I just trade with what happens, not with what i think it will happen.


Good Trading for you all!

Dude, seriously, no one is trying to predict anything! This thread was started because I have observed that EURAUD is near the bottom of a multi-year range, and that, should a bullish signal arise, it would not be a bad idea to take it. I have not entered into a trade yet.

andersenws

Also, as a sidenote, I am reminded of why I quit posting so much. I've already had one personal attack in this thread, not counting johnedoe's mockery. It sucks.

did'nt mean to offend......I will delete my post.
It's just that I see people getting soooo bogged down in analysis that nothing is clear anymore and the trade is lost.
during the period you are speaking of there were several tradable short term trends and reversals.

Don't take it too serious. Many opinions come with a negative tone, but not always they are really negative as the reader might think.

I already know that you don't have open positions but i just thought at first glance that you were preparing to jump ahead of the gun. I guess i was wrong..


In the end its your trading results that matter. Why stop writing here, if you may write with a smile.

If one day you make it to 1 million, are you really concerned about what the others say? I would laugh to anything contradicting my view if i made 1 million with my trading.

EURAUD has stopped dead in its tracks. I first posted when it was sitting at 1.5650, it never dropped below 1.5634. Rangebound between 1.5634 and 1.5747 for the past 36-48 hours.


Still have not taken a position, but will be watching it very closely.
andersenws

Andersenwc, what type of reversal confirmation will you be seeking out for? I think you're playing one little risky game here, trying to long a pair that shows 4 or 5 big ass red candles on the weekly chart. That's why I am curious as to what event exactly will make you push the "BUY" button.

I'm thinking that this week will end in a Pb or even slightly bullish, and I will place a buy stop maybe 25-50 pips above the week's high, to be safe.

andersenws

So a hammer off the long term range bottom. Thanks for clearing that up.

Since you posted the topic for discussion, I will take a shot at it (You can always ignore if you don't like ).

If I were to play this I would look for the following:
(1) Your pin bar that you are talking about to create a bottom
(2) Price to move up and break a down trendline on the daily chart
(3) Waiting for the price to retreat to this trendline
(4) Entering on price action on this retreat & hopeful bounce

What I have noticed is that the price will almost never initiate a complete turn around on the first bounce. Therefore it is much more prudent to wait for the initial correction back to the break of the trendline / market bottom.

Personally I believe the AUD has a lot more strength left in it and will break through the bottom.

Thanks
B

Imvho this pair is just gearing up for another bottom run. Strictly on fundamentals alone the Aud figures to have a ton more going for it than the Eur, based on backward looking data alone. Just my .02

I have placed buy stops at 1.5805 and 1.5965

andersenws